Deal Analysis- What to Look Out For When You're New

Deal Analysis- What to Look Out For When You're New

Wholesaler · Melbourne, FL · Member since 2010 · 72 posts · 59 votes

This is an example of a deal I saw right here on BP, and the person that posted it should be embarrassed. Don't worry- I'm not going to name names or provide details-- but here are the numbers:

$32K asking price
$10K estimated rehab costs
$55K ARV (After Repair Value)

ASSUMING (and we all know what happens when you assume) that the rehab costs are spot on, and there are no carrying costs (carrying costs: mortage payments, utilities, non-owner occupied property insurance, property taxes, etc) because you rehab and sell it in less than 30 days...AND ASSUMING you sell it yourself and there are no realty commissions because miraculously you found a buyer in 30 days or less who is going to pay FULL ASKING PRICE in cash, and naturally this unicorn doesn't have closing costs, either- oh, and ALSO not using a broker, your AMAZING pre-tax profit would be:

$55K sales price - $42K = $13K

Since we're assuming things, let's talk about what you can REALLY assume:

Assume your rehab costs run $12,000 (don't think an estimate can reasonably be off by 20%? think again).

Now your costs are $44K

Let's say that realistically your buyer offers $45K and you end up setting on $49K:

Your profit is down to $5K

Assume have at least a buyers broker in this deal and you get a discount so you pay 2% - $980

Your profit is down to $4K

Assume you have $200 in utilities, 2% of the deal in closing costs- another $980, and other ancillary costs-- call 'em $1000--

You're now under $2K

My prediction: You'll lose money on this deal.

And if you're new, you will see DOZENS of deals with numbers like this, or worse.

And they're bad deals. How do I know? Because I buy these properties from lenders, and at the tax sales after "investors" screw themselves into the ground trying to wring a profit out of them.

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  • Real Estate Investor · Western, MA · Member since 2010 · 16 posts · 8 votes
    16y

    Hi Paul, thanks for breaking down a deal! I have a few questions (for you and/or the community at large):

    1) Is there anything that can be done to salvage this deal? Ex. What would you offer for the property, what kind of ARV would be required to make the number work (impossible to change unless you move the house to another city, of course)? Basically thoughts on what would have to happen to make this work.

    2) The estimate rehab of $10k - is that "your" number or the sellers number? If it's the sellers, how much trust do you put in that? I'm guessing it depends a lot on who's selling it.

    3) in the last paragraph, when you talk about buying it after the "investors" go under, how much do you trust their work? This is party asked because of an experience I'm having now that I'll be posting soon.

    Thanks in advance!

  • Loveland, CO · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 123 votes
    16y

    Paul's OP posits the following

    "$32K asking price
    $10K estimated rehab costs "

    I think many of us tend to shy away from any property that has an estimated rehab cost of 1/3 of asking price, although I have purchased a couple of them in my time. My question would be what would any of you OFFER and what price would you agree on as a purchase price?

    I tend to offer about 50%-60% of asking price, and I tend to do my own fix-up labor.

    My selling method tends to get me MORE THAN "market" price.

    Depending on what kind of work and the split between labor and materials I would probably buy this, under the following:

    I can get it for less than $30K.

    I can fix it for $10K (my estimates are generally HIGHER THAN ACTUAL). I tend to buy a lot of my materials on Craigslist

    If the "true market" ARV is $55K I can generally sell for $60K or higher.

    So, if I end up with $40K or less in it, and sell it for $60K or more, I'll end up very happy.

    But, I'm not new.

    Frank

  • OR · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 845 votes
    16y

    It's vaguely possible that this house might work for a buy and hold rental property. If rents are high and the neighborhood is good and not in danger of sliding into a slum.

    Especially if it would be the smallest least expensive house in a better more expensive neighborhood.

    Rehab costs are lower for a rental than for a re-sell. I gotta tell you, though $10,000 isn't a lot of rehab, so the house better not have too much structural wrong with it.

    I want more than $13k in equity for my holds, but then, I can't buy anything for so low a price. I like to end up with about 33% equity, and this house isn't there. But I'll take less if there is something about the property that has a really promising upside to it.(hard to imagine at this price range, but I don't know the area)

  • Real Estate Investor · Fenton, MI · Member since 2008 · 946 posts · 153 votes
    16y

    So how do any of you make any money in REI in the current market? When I was putting in offers on homes I was always out bid by people who wanted to live in the home, and were counting on Obama’s credit to offset what they paid.

  • Real Estate Investor · Milwaukee, WI · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 671 votes
    16y

    Steve,
    I think there are many of us who make our living in REI. Once you are in it for a few months you will have a pretty good idea if you are going to make money or not. After my first deal things started to make sense, I found the right people to help me with my business, people started coming to me with deals, and things got a little easier. After the first year, things might get harder if you are in the rental business. You can't fly below the radar as much as you used to and you also cant plead ignorance anymore (if you still dont get it after a year it is time to try to get your old job back or apply for one of those new ones at the IRS). Get yourself out of the retail market and into the investor's market where you have a chance of getting a deal. I have not been doing this full-time for very long, but I am starting to understand that most of your deals will not be homeruns, but you dont need a homerun on every deal. If you hit enough singles you are going to score, just not as fast. REI is not a get rich quick scheme. Read a lot. Ask a lot of questions. Stick around on BP and when we dont see you on here much anymore I hope it is because you are on a rehab or working on your rentals and not because you gave up.

    JEFF

  • Wholesaler · Melbourne, FL · Member since 2010 · 72 posts · 59 votes
    16y

    My first three deals looked a lot like this- and that was in a "hot" market.

    I lost money on all of them- actually by my third deal, two years after my first, I broke even. I consider that a huge loss. I lost my time, I lost to inflation, and I took tremendous risk to do it.

    What I would do with this (all the numbers are the sellers, btw) is try my best to ascertain what the seller paid for it and/or what they've got financed (what they really NEED) in order to make my best guess of what break-even looks like for them. I would also try my best to figure out their motivation? Are they stuck with a dog, up to their eyeballs, financially or otherwise distressed?

    I would find out market rents, find out TRUE ARV - the real market value of the property.

    You've got to have the market knowledge- the information- to make this deal really work.

    I don't like "rule of thumb" formulas. There's a way to make just about any deal work. That being said, I get nervous when I don't start a deal out at a minimum of 30% profit, and I really like 40% to 60%. If there's a major rehab involved-- anything over a couple thousand dollars, I like to try to get at LEAST twice my rehab costs out of the deal.

    In other words, if there's $10K worth of rehab by the seller's estimate, I want $20K back out. That means the seller's own (very likely optimistic) estimates don't work for this deal.

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