Realtor · Houston, TX · Member since 2018 · 30 posts · 14 votes
If you are an investor or a realtor in Houston I welcome your feedback.
I built a tool for my investor clients that automatically calculates EVERY listing on HAR (our MLS) and it tells you if it cash flows. Then it allows the user to filter the properties based on how they want to finance the properties and which return metrics they want to use. (cash flow, Cap rate etc.) The model also tells you the degree of confidence and how it reached it's conclusion.
I built this to help me build pipeline of buyers as a realtor. If you are an agent would this help your business? I'm thinking of Improving this tool some and licensing it to other realtors. Your feedback is welcome!
@Aaron White cool idea. Running the numbers before something goes to a client is something we push our agents on, so I get why you built it. The thing I'd watch is taxes and insurance. Those tend to be off on listings and they swing cash flow a lot. Rents too, since asking rents and signed leases can be pretty different. Honestly I think agents who own a few rentals catch those things faster than any model, but a tool that gets them to the right 10 listings quicker is still useful. Curious how you're working out the confidence score.
Hi @Matthew Morrow , Part of the reason I built this tool is because property tax data swings widely here in Houston. We built rules to verify tax data, hoa fees, and it has an educated guess on insurance data.
The model is picky when it comes to picking comparable properties. We built "solid deals" where the math is likely to work and "fuzzy deals" where the math needs verification. We look at likelihood of recieving accurate data from the MLS and Tax assesor and we look at strict rule for picking out comparable properties. If a property meats the minimum for cash flow it is fuzzy if it passes a stricter level it falls into a solid category. It took us a while to test this and fine tune it but so far the solids have been very good. The fuzzy deals show you what you need to check.
Investors often waste hours running the math on several properties until they learn which subdivisions they like. Then they don't venture out to find new areas as the learning time is long. This flips it on it's head.
@Aaron White the solid vs fuzzy split makes sense to me, especially showing people what they still need to check instead of acting like the number is final. Getting investors to look past the same few subdivisions is a real problem too. Curious how it holds up once you have some closed deals to compare it against.
@Matthew Morrow You are correct, it is a screening tool to eliminate the task that takes 80% of the time in finding a deal.
We have been using a light version of this software for 8 months now and helped 7 investors buy an investment with this tool. The rents have all been quite accurate.
You still need to verify the physical condition and often times even if you show up you find surprises that wer not in the photos. That being said many houses are sitting on the market today just because no one did the math on the property.
We are now shifting the strategy as I'd like to make this program API fed from the MLS. That has costs so I'm looking to share those costs with realtors by giving them a tool they can help their clients with too.
@Aaron White seven buyers in eight months with the rents holding up is a pretty good test. Agree on the surprises. No set of photos is going to show you what the furnace looks like or what's going on in the basement, so the screen gets you to the right houses and then somebody still has to walk them. Curious to see how the MLS version works out once it's live.
genuine question - how can you estimate cash flow from a listing? what if there are major issues like deferred maintenance or capex? i am assuming this is just a screening tool to narrow down to a smaller list, but, in today's market, with high prices and high rates, there basically isn't any cash flow on an on-market property anymore.
not trying to be discouraging just trying to engage
@Nicholas L. You are correct, this is a screening tool. Even if a listing has perfect photos we often find undisclosed surprises when we visit a property. That part doesn't change. The purpose of this is two fold:
1) Eliminate the part that takes 80% of your time in underwriting and finding a deal
2) have actual data on what the market can do right now instead of speculating whether deals are out there.
I feel your pain on interest rates and prices still being high. It has slowed our business down a good bit. That being said cash flow being dead is a bit of a myth. I currently have a limited data set of around 40,000 listings (in Houston) I load and of that 462 came back as possible cash flow. Of those 94 of those homes have a high confidence in the properties ability to cash flow. I'm sure at least 1/4 of these have physical distress but having a short stack list where the math works shortens your time and opens you up to searching in more areas you may not have been familiar with.
A lot of investors quit looking and the only reason these are not getting purchased is because no body is taking the time to calculate if they could cash flow. This tool calculates if the property can cash flow then lets the investor review physical condition, neighborhood etc to determine if it is a good match.
This is great! I also built a tool for the reasons of fluctuating tax rates get comparable data for rentals. I send it out weekly to my list of investors. I am loving this new technology and different perspectives on the use of finding and sourcing deals on the market. Though not every tool will be accurate, it definitely helps narrow it down.
Funny thing is that all investors will see opportunities and risks differently. As long as you disclosure that they need to do their own analysis, then this will be valuable to your clients because it weeded out all the properties that doesn't fit.
I do this for rentals, flips, short term rentals, and multi-family properties.
@Drew Sygit Great questions as many investors will look at this very different. We do not include capex or opex budgets in there currently. We look at PITI and HOA fees as there are many HOAs down here. For Cash on cash we look at it as if it were a cash purchase of the property. I recognize many investors will look at things differently and I may need to include more advanced options for investors that want more clear criteria. Do you sell properties too or do you stick to management? I'm curious to hear a property manager's perspective.
Hi @Oluwatobi Franklin If by shortlisted you mean properties an investor wants to consider or compare, yes. Currently they can save their properties of interest just as most MLS do. We are going to be pushing a feature that will help compare properties side by side from their saved properties. Your realtor that brings you onboard will also be able to see those properties and reach out about info you want or need as an investor. Is this what you mean?
Yes, that's exactly what I meant! Being able to save and compare properties side by side would be really useful for investors evaluating multiple opportunities.
I was also thinking about what happens after an investor identifies a promising property.
For example, having a way to track property status, add notes, schedule follow-up reminders, and potentially connect those activities to a CRM could make the tool even more valuable.
Are you considering any lead management or follow-up features as part of your future development plans?