Home prices will rise another 16% next year according to Goldman

Home prices will rise another 16% next year according to Goldman

Realtor · Cerritos, CA · Member since 2018 · 15 posts · 1 vote

Unfortunately for those sidelined buyers, there’s more bad news. In the next 15 months—through the end of 2022—Goldman Sachs is forecasting U.S. home prices will soar another 16%. While that represents a slight deceleration in the growth of home prices—which are up 17.7% over the past 12 months alone—it’s hardly price relief for buyers. Simply put: The investment bank thinks the housing market frenzy set off during the pandemic has a lot more room to run.
“The supply-demand picture that has been the basis for our call for a multiyear boom in home prices remains intact," the Goldman Sachs researchers wrote in their report. “Of all the shortages afflicting the U.S. economy, the housing shortage might last the longest.” They don’t see prices correcting anytime soon; in fact, they are forecasting another 6.2% jump in 2023.

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Investor · Columbus, GA · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
4y

Nobody at Goldman can predict the future. Real estate is local. When the Fed increases rates to 6%, cold water will be thrown on this hot market.

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  • Investor · Columbus, GA · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    4y

    Nobody at Goldman can predict the future. Real estate is local. When the Fed increases rates to 6%, cold water will be thrown on this hot market.

  • Bruce WoodruffPro Member
    Contractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
    4y

    I wouldn't trust GS as far as I could throw them...... lets see how many people want to take on a 10% APR loan..... :-)

  • Realtor · Cerritos, CA · Member since 2018 · 15 posts · 1 vote
    4y

    If you gentlemen own or invest in real estate, then you should be happy about the news. If you don't own any, look into rent to own, or off market properties.

  • Joe S.Pro Member
    Investor · San Antonio · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    4y

    Investors are not exactly notifying the world that it’s time to buy. Realtors are though. :-)

  • Rental Property Investor · Boston, MA · Member since 2019 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    4y

    @Soheil Naimi I agree.

  • Investor · NorCal · Member since 2015 · 282 posts · 240 votes
    4y

    This is not “news”, this is just a forecast. And we all know from the weather comedians how accurate forecasts are. The exact opposite might happen.

  • Real Estate Agent · San Antonio, TX · Member since 2017 · 814 posts · 466 votes
    4y

    If people can't afford buying, then the market will change on the other direction. And I think we are at almost the top of affordability, if not very close. Only a fool will predict a 12 month in a REI market. Who knows what the outer factors will be within that term (Government power)?

  • John MorganPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Grand Prairie, TX · Member since 2018 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    4y

    It’s all about supply and demand. We’re 4 million houses short nationwide now. That’s a lot! Builders are a decade behind and won’t be able to keep up with this demand for years/decades. Millennials are the largest buying demographic. And they’re finally starting to buy. Lots of investors are jumping in for obvious reasons. I just don’t see a large supply of homes available to buy or rent. So that’s why I’m very bullish on RE even if they raise interest rates. They raised them in 1974 and home prices kept soaring. I just don’t see a drop off in demand anytime soon. So I believe a 10% + appreciation will happen in 2022 and beyond.

  • Member since 2020 · 41 posts · 56 votes
    4y

    @Soheil Naimi This just sounds like confirmation bias for you, no? There are other data sources predicting the exact opposite. 

  • Realtor · Cerritos, CA · Member since 2018 · 15 posts · 1 vote
    4y

    Majority of the data I see and hear about is indicating 2022 to be positive for real estate.

  • Bruce WoodruffPro Member
    Contractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
    4y
    Originally posted by @Soheil Naimi:

    Majority of the data I see and hear about is indicating 2022 to be positive for real estate.

    I think most of 2022 will be strong, but beyond that, it just can't continue. IMO.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    4y
    Originally posted by @John Morgan:

    It’s all about supply and demand. We’re 4 million houses short nationwide now. That’s a lot! Builders are a decade behind and won’t be able to keep up with this demand for years/decades. Millennials are the largest buying demographic. And they’re finally starting to buy. Lots of investors are jumping in for obvious reasons. I just don’t see a large supply of homes available to buy or rent. So that’s why I’m very bullish on RE even if they raise interest rates. They raised them in 1974 and home prices kept soaring. I just don’t see a drop off in demand anytime soon. So I believe a 10% + appreciation will happen in 2022 and beyond.

    Also keep in mind your talking about B + to A inventory IE meaning very nice owner occ neighborhoods and or new construction. 

    there are plenty of houses but a huge amount of them are in areas that ONLY attract investors they do not attract owner occupants..

    there by making this shortage even worse.  U can go into almost any mid west rust belt city today and buy any number of houses for under 100k  day one  no problem thousands of them but these are not where owner occ's will buy.. neighborhoods are too sketchy to downright dangerous  schools bad to terrible  retail closed down becomes of decades of thefts  etc etc. 

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