Please help me analyze this deal

Please help me analyze this deal

Rental Property Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2018 · 77 posts · 22 votes

Hey all, I'm looking at a duplex and I'm crunching the numbers. They look decent (COC return is lower than I'd like) but would love any feedback.

Thanks for taking a look!

Rental income: $1600

Expenses:

Taxes: 319.41
Ins: 79.16
Water/Sewage:
Garbage: 
Electric:
Gas:
HOA fees:
Lawn/Snow:
Vacancy: 100
Repairs: 150
CapEx: 100
Prop Mgmt: 160
Mortgage: 536

Total Expenses: $1,444.57
Rental income: $1.600**
Difference: +$155.43 (Monthly Cashflow**)

Down Payment: $29,000 (20%)
Closing Costs: $5,000
Rehab: $5,000
Total Investment: $39,000

Cash on Cash return: 4.78%**

**Note: Current market rates look like I could charge another $75-$100/mo for each unit, raising my cash flow and creating a COC return of 9.39%-10.93% respectively



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Rental Property Investor · Duxbury, MA · Member since 2018 · 17 posts · 12 votes
4y

If that is your goal, Nick, then I would go for it!  I have been taking a similar approach, as I dont NEED the cash flow right now, but trying to find properties that will have rent appreciation in the future or value add opportunities so I can get in and learn.  I can say, its already taught me a lot.  How to raise the rent, have difficult conversations with tenants, setting up systems early for property management, things to look for in future deals, etc.  I really like Brandon's philosophy of not worrying too much about the early deals and just getting in! 

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  • Real Estate Agent · Manchester, NH · Member since 2015 · 160 posts · 148 votes
    4y

    @Nick Ruffini Looks pretty good to me. Good Luck! 

  • Rental Property Investor · Duxbury, MA · Member since 2018 · 17 posts · 12 votes
    4y

    Hi Nick!  The analysis looks good - although I would ask what your goals are...  Are you looking to start to acquire some properties to gain experience?  If so, this may be a great place to start.  (This has been my strategy on a few!)  Otherwise, the numbers look a little thin.  Are these returns typical for your market?  Is there anyway to add value to the property over the first year or 2 by raising the rents, improving it, adding additional cash flow through laundry or storage etc?  Just a few comments to think about!

  • Rental Property Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2018 · 77 posts · 22 votes
    4y

    @Jeremy Nault thanks!

  • Rental Property Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2018 · 77 posts · 22 votes
    4y

    @Allicyn Aubut The goal for me on this property is to get in the game instead of standing on the sidelines. There’s an opportunity to value add a little and raise Rents but I’m just looking for something to hold that positively cash flows. Thoughts?

  • Rental Property Investor · Beaverton, OR · Member since 2019 · 34 posts · 29 votes
    4y

    Agreed with the others, looks like a nice little property, especially if you can bump the rents a bit

  • Rental Property Investor · Duxbury, MA · Member since 2018 · 17 posts · 12 votes
    4y

    If that is your goal, Nick, then I would go for it!  I have been taking a similar approach, as I dont NEED the cash flow right now, but trying to find properties that will have rent appreciation in the future or value add opportunities so I can get in and learn.  I can say, its already taught me a lot.  How to raise the rent, have difficult conversations with tenants, setting up systems early for property management, things to look for in future deals, etc.  I really like Brandon's philosophy of not worrying too much about the early deals and just getting in! 

  • Nicholas L.Pro Member
    Flipper/Rehabber · Pittsburgh · Member since 2018 · 6k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    4y

    @Nick Ruffini make sure all of the utilities, lawn care, trash etc. are truly split and paid for by each tenant!

  • Rental Property Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2018 · 77 posts · 22 votes
    4y

    @Brian Armstrong Thanks!

  • Rental Property Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2018 · 77 posts · 22 votes
    4y

    @Allicyn Aubut Agreed. And I have some extra expenses built in there that probably won’t have but keeping them in just to be on the safe side. Thanks for the feedback!

  • Rental Property Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2018 · 77 posts · 22 votes
    4y

    @Nicholas L. have confirmed that they are. Thanks for the heads up!

  • Real Estate Agent · Atlanta · Member since 2018 · 137 posts · 69 votes
    4y

    @Nick Ruffini

    I would go ahead and do it if you're fairly confident you can get the extra $100/month rent you mentioned. Those taxes seem insane for a $145k house though.

    What area is it? Also what do you think the value will be after the $5k of renovations?

  • TX · Member since 2018 · 154 posts · 92 votes
    4y

    @Nick Ruffini one thing that isn’t included in here are renewal fees/new tenants. Do you have a basis for your vacancy and repair rates? They are potentially low. Good luck!

  • Rental Property Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2018 · 77 posts · 22 votes
    4y

    @Ariel K. I allocated $100/mo for vacancies and $150/mo for repairs (plus CapEx reserves) You're thinking that's too low?

  • Specialist · Johnson City, TN · Member since 2021 · 139 posts · 146 votes
    4y

    Vacancies do look a bit low but If you are confident in being able to raise the rent then it isnt a factor. It isnt a homerun deal but it's a solid single.

  • Rental Property Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2018 · 77 posts · 22 votes
    4y

    @Don Gouge I totally agree, it's not a homerun. It's my first deal so I'm just trying to land something that gets me in the game and cashflows, albeit lower than I'd like.  

  • Rental Property Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2018 · 77 posts · 22 votes
    4y

    @Account Closed I'm pretty confident I can get an additional $75-$100 per unit but just ran the lower numbers to be safe. 

    Yeah, it's in the Philadelphia suburbs and the taxes have always been notoriously high there. 

  • TX · Member since 2018 · 154 posts · 92 votes
    4y

    @Nick Ruffini I understand. I guess my answer is I don’t know. Do you have a basis for those numbers? Any historical data?

  • Bruce WoodruffPro Member
    Contractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
    4y

    It's a little skinny for me...but I'd also look at the predicted appreciation and rent increases. Probably is a good first deal if it feels like it to you. What does your gut tell you aside from the numbers?

  • Rental Property Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2018 · 77 posts · 22 votes
    4y

    @Bruce Woodruff Thanks for the input. I agree, it’s a little slim for me too but thinking it may not be a bad first deal. My gut tells me I need to understand the reality of a rent increase and that I may be trying to push this deal though even though it may not be the best choice.

  • Investor · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2019 · 618 posts · 430 votes
    4y

    Im not sure where you are around Philly but I would verify that you do not need to pay for trash with having a MFH.  I would also add in an expense for snow removal unless your management company is planning to handle that.

    I also think vacancy is a bit on the low side and would use ~8% (1mo/12mo).

    Same with CapEx, unless the place was recently renovated. $100/month yields $12k in 10 years. If both units have HVAC systems along w the roof, kitchens, etc that could be light when things start to need replacing.

  • Contractor · Brooklyn, NY · Member since 2021 · 64 posts · 57 votes
    4y

    Consider that it will take you approximately 20 years to recover the initial investment of 39000. Aside from tax considerations and exponential appreciation, your cash investment is better suited in the market, which by 30 years will be worth over 500k+ assuming 9% return.

  • Rental Property Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2018 · 77 posts · 22 votes
    4y

    @Zee Abbas Agreed. I re-worked the numbers, and got exact numbers on the mortgage, down payment, interest rate, etc. It raises my COC return but no where near what I'm currently getting in the market. Thanks for the input!

  • Rental Property Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2018 · 77 posts · 22 votes
    4y

    @Eric Greenberg Yup, I would have to pay sewer, water and trash. I reworked my numbers, and even though the mortgage came back lower than expected as well as the insurance, I'm still looking at a 3-7% COC return, which is less than half of what I'm getting in the market right now so it's a pass. It looks like it will cash flow about $300/month, but not worth the outlay of cash. I appreciate the insight!

  • Red Bluff, CA · Member since 2017 · 29 posts · 6 votes
    4y

    Good deal for the amount of cash you are putting down. Like others, I would want a little more cash flow.

  • Rental Property Investor · Duxbury, MA · Member since 2018 · 17 posts · 12 votes
    4y

    I would just like to say that you may be getting more in the market right now from a purely CoC standpoint, BUT you are not factoring in longer term appreciation, the rents being raised over time, tax advantages of real estate AND the experience you are getting by just starting with real estate. If you can find something else with better returns and move on it quickly, then maybe that makes sense but I believe that investing and especially real estate investing is more an art than a science - at this point some early experience is worth more than any metric you can calculate on paper.

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