Top 10 Cities where Home Prices will Crash in 2025

Dan H.Pro Member

Investor · Poway, CA · Member since 2015 · 7k+ posts · 8k+ votes

1y

My family has been an RE investor since the 1970s. I have never heard of Reventure prior to this post. Did a google search and then looked at the "About us" in hopes to find out how long they have existed. The about us does not list the year of founding or much other info about their history.

It certainly is not Core Logic, Case Shiller, NeithborhoodScout, Zillow, Redfin, Property Hub, etc.

This is not stating anything about the accuracy of their forecast except that I suspect they have no significant track record that would provide the capability to analyze their forecasts.

Core logic regularly (monthly?) provides a list of a few locations that they believe are most likely to fall in price. They even provide a percentage of probability for the forecast.

Florida, Texas, and Colorado cities make up the list.

Next year we can see how accurate the forecast was.

I personally would take properties in most of those cities over many midwest cities for a long term hold (10+ years). A single year forecast has very little interest to me and my long term RE investment strategy.

Best wishes

6 Reply

Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
1y
Quote from @Dan H.:

My family has been an RE investor since the 1970s. I have never heard of Reventure prior to this post. Did a google search and then looked at the "About us" in hopes to find out how long they have existed. The about us does not list the year of founding or much other info about their history.
It certainly is not Core Logic, Case Shiller, NeithborhoodScout, Zillow, Redfin, Property Hub, etc.
This is not stating anything about the accuracy of their forecast except that I suspect they have no significant track record that would provide the capability to analyze their forecasts.
Core logic regularly (monthly?) provides a list of a few locations that they believe are most likely to fall in price. They even provide a percentage of probability for the forecast.
Florida, Texas, and Colorado cities make up the list.
Next year we can see how accurate the forecast was.
I personally would take properties in most of those cities over many midwest cities for a long term hold (10+ years). A single year forecast has very little interest to me and my long term RE investment strategy.
Best wishes

REventure is some dude with a U tube channel who is always talking about the next crash .. blah blah blah.. its just his opinion and if you watch him I would not take any advice from him.. But I can see cape Coral prices coming down we know thats happening that is a boom bust market and has been for decades.. There is a big difference in a crash and prices coming down 2 to 5% i mean come on .. LOL
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Rick Pozos

Wholesaler, Rehabber and Landlord · San Antonio, TX · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes

1y

When interest rates go from 3% to 8% in less than a year, YES prices will go down. It takes time for people to adjust to why their house is not selling. Then they lower a little, maybe get it sold. The comps are now a little lower. THEN market price is a little lower and again they have to be a little lower than that and on and on until we get to equilibrium.

If prices have NOT come down and there is lots of demand for housing in that area, prices may only come down a little, if any. In most markets, prices will come down plenty more over 2025 and maybe more in 2026. Just my thoughts.

1 Reply

Russell BrazilBusiness Member
Moderator
Real Estate Agent · Washington, D.C. · Member since 2012 · 17k+ posts · 30k+ votes
1y
Quote from @Rick Pozos:

When interest rates go from 3% to 8% in less than a year, YES prices will go down. It takes time for people to adjust to why their house is not selling. Then they lower a little, maybe get it sold. The comps are now a little lower. THEN market price is a little lower and again they have to be a little lower than that and on and on until we get to equilibrium.
If prices have NOT come down and there is lots of demand for housing in that area, prices may only come down a little, if any. In most markets, prices will come down plenty more over 2025 and maybe more in 2026. Just my thoughts.

Has rising interest rates ever correlated to falling prices nationally? Nope. Rising interest rates have correlated to rising prices however. Rapidly falling interest rates have correlated to falling prices.
Here is a FB post of mine from 2021 that predicted rising rates would correlate to rising prices.
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Ken M.
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Investor · Get yourself trained before doing something inadvisable. · Member since 2024 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
1y
Quote from @Russell Brazil:

Quote from @Rick Pozos:

When interest rates go from 3% to 8% in less than a year, YES prices will go down. It takes time for people to adjust to why their house is not selling. Then they lower a little, maybe get it sold. The comps are now a little lower. THEN market price is a little lower and again they have to be a little lower than that and on and on until we get to equilibrium.
If prices have NOT come down and there is lots of demand for housing in that area, prices may only come down a little, if any. In most markets, prices will come down plenty more over 2025 and maybe more in 2026. Just my thoughts.

Has rising interest rates ever correlated to falling prices nationally? Nope. Rising interest rates have correlated to rising prices however. Rapidly falling interest rates have correlated to falling prices.
Here is a FB post of mine from 2021 that predicted rising rates would correlate to rising prices.
We haven't seen a "normal" market for a while. But back before rates were reduced below the 100 year average,

how many "Days on Market" could an average property expect to be on the MLS before getting a bona fide offer?

or put a different way, how many months of inventory was considered a "balanced" market?
0 Reply
Russell BrazilBusiness Member
Moderator
Real Estate Agent · Washington, D.C. · Member since 2012 · 17k+ posts · 30k+ votes
1y
Quote from @Ken M.:

Quote from @Russell Brazil:

Quote from @Rick Pozos:

When interest rates go from 3% to 8% in less than a year, YES prices will go down. It takes time for people to adjust to why their house is not selling. Then they lower a little, maybe get it sold. The comps are now a little lower. THEN market price is a little lower and again they have to be a little lower than that and on and on until we get to equilibrium.
If prices have NOT come down and there is lots of demand for housing in that area, prices may only come down a little, if any. In most markets, prices will come down plenty more over 2025 and maybe more in 2026. Just my thoughts.

Has rising interest rates ever correlated to falling prices nationally? Nope. Rising interest rates have correlated to rising prices however. Rapidly falling interest rates have correlated to falling prices.
Here is a FB post of mine from 2021 that predicted rising rates would correlate to rising prices.
We haven't seen a "normal" market for a while. But back before rates were reduced below the 100 year average,

how many "Days on Market" could an average property expect to be on the MLS before getting a bona fide offer?

or put a different way, how many months of inventory was considered a "balanced" market?
6 months supply is what's considered a normal market. However as inventory total units and sales has plummeted, that has skewed the data so that months of supply isn't really an accurate indicator.

A normalish market, favoring sellers a little bit should have something around 5.5 million home sales per year nationally. This is what we were seeing in 2015-2017 about. In 2024 we had only 4 million home sales. I can look at my market locally and see we have on average right now 5,000 units for sale at a given moment. 10 years ago that was 16,000-18,000. So if inventory were to say double in my market to 10,000 units, that would show a huge jump in months of supply, but would not be reflective of actual deman because of the law of small numbers.

I think the US has about 1.25 million units available for sale right now. In a more normalized situation, that should be closer to 2 million.
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Ken M.
OP
Investor · Get yourself trained before doing something inadvisable. · Member since 2024 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
1y
Quote from @Russell Brazil:

Quote from @Ken M.:

Quote from @Russell Brazil:

Quote from @Rick Pozos:

When interest rates go from 3% to 8% in less than a year, YES prices will go down. It takes time for people to adjust to why their house is not selling. Then they lower a little, maybe get it sold. The comps are now a little lower. THEN market price is a little lower and again they have to be a little lower than that and on and on until we get to equilibrium.
If prices have NOT come down and there is lots of demand for housing in that area, prices may only come down a little, if any. In most markets, prices will come down plenty more over 2025 and maybe more in 2026. Just my thoughts.

Has rising interest rates ever correlated to falling prices nationally? Nope. Rising interest rates have correlated to rising prices however. Rapidly falling interest rates have correlated to falling prices.
Here is a FB post of mine from 2021 that predicted rising rates would correlate to rising prices.
We haven't seen a "normal" market for a while. But back before rates were reduced below the 100 year average,

how many "Days on Market" could an average property expect to be on the MLS before getting a bona fide offer?

or put a different way, how many months of inventory was considered a "balanced" market?
6 months supply is what's considered a normal market. However as inventory total units and sales has plummeted, that has skewed the data so that months of supply isn't really an accurate indicator.

A normalish market, favoring sellers a little bit should have something around 5.5 million home sales per year nationally. This is what we were seeing in 2015-2017 about. In 2024 we had only 4 million home sales. I can look at my market locally and see we have on average right now 5,000 units for sale at a given moment. 10 years ago that was 16,000-18,000. So if inventory were to say double in my market to 10,000 units, that would show a huge jump in months of supply, but would not be reflective of actual deman because of the law of small numbers.

I think the US has about 1.25 million units available for sale right now. In a more normalized situation, that should be closer to 2 million.
Right, I remember hearing years ago that 6 months was balanced.
I believe I also heard that the average sale took about 6 months. Thus the 6 month contract most agents would want a client to sign.

With all of the "hot" market sales and the changes between selling agents/buying agents agreements what are you recommending for

a listing agreement length of time
and
a buyer agreement length of time

I think many agreements have a clause binding a client to the agreement for "specifically shown properties" for an additional period of time after it expires.

Is that common?
0 Reply

Steve K.

Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votes

1y

Not at all what we’re seeing on the ground in Denver. Open houses were slammed and most new listings went under contract last weekend. All the agents I know are busy. Lenders report a huge uptick in new loan applications. Showing schedules are filling up for new listings. Multiple offers and over asking price offers are back. It’s shaping up to be a strong seller’s market with steep appreciation this year here in CO.

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Bill S.Pro Member

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Rental Property Investor · Denver, CO · Member since 2013 · 4k+ posts · 2k+ votes

1y

@Ken M. all is negotiable in real estate with regards to the listing on both sides. Do what works for you and yes there are clauses binding for an additional time to prevent buyers and sellers from cutting out the agents near the end of listings. Still happens all the time though.

I followed the REventure youtube channel for a while. The guy is a one trick pony with no track record nor a data model to support his premise. He has been wrong for so long at some point he might be right but that is based on that same idea that a broken clock also being right twice a day. While his premise seems logical, it is in-fact not supported by data. When I followed the channel the idea was that affordability was constant and prices would return to the equilibrium of affordability. There is no data to support the idea that a lack of affordability will in fact result in a lower sales prices. The correlation is related to supply and demand. Demand closely follows job growth and job creation. So unless there is massive job loss in these markets, history says there will be no return to "affordability" that he bases his forecasts on.

In fact home prices are down and inventory is up relative to 2021 highs but not anywhere near 10% which is what I would generally term to be a correction. In real value terms we have seen a small (maybe minus 2-3%) downturn in some areas of Denver but it's really hard to quantify since most homes are not exactly the same. Those that resell do not turn around and resell the next year or two without some distress in the sellers. The exception being if there is massive appreciation in the way of a remodel or the market in general.

You can do your own research to see if what this guy is peddling is of value. IMO it does not have value. Follow the "On the Market" Podcast here on BP and you will get 10x more value and insight into the market.

1 Reply

Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
1y
Quote from @Bill S.:

@Ken M. all is negotiable in real estate with regards to the listing on both sides. Do what works for you and yes there are clauses binding for an additional time to prevent buyers and sellers from cutting out the agents near the end of listings. Still happens all the time though.
I followed the REventure youtube channel for a while. The guy is a one trick pony with no track record nor a data model to support his premise. He has been wrong for so long at some point he might be right but that is based on that same idea that a broken clock also being right twice a day. While his premise seems logical, it is in-fact not supported by data. When I followed the channel the idea was that affordability was constant and prices would return to the equilibrium of affordability. There is no data to support the idea that a lack of affordability will in fact result in a lower sales prices. The correlation is related to supply and demand. Demand closely follows job growth and job creation. So unless there is massive job loss in these markets, history says there will be no return to "affordability" that he bases his forecasts on.
In fact home prices are down and inventory is up relative to 2021 highs but not anywhere near 10% which is what I would generally term to be a correction. In real value terms we have seen a small (maybe minus 2-3%) downturn in some areas of Denver but it's really hard to quantify since most homes are not exactly the same. Those that resell do not turn around and resell the next year or two without some distress in the sellers. The exception being if there is massive appreciation in the way of a remodel or the market in general.
You can do your own research to see if what this guy is peddling is of value. IMO it does not have value. Follow the "On the Market" Podcast here on BP and you will get 10x more value and insight into the market.

the only people that liked reventure were folks that wanted greedy property oweners and greedy builders to crater and lose money.. this guy is a JOKE.. full stop.
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Ken M.
OP
Investor · Get yourself trained before doing something inadvisable. · Member since 2024 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
1y
Quote from @Bill S.:

@Ken M. all is negotiable in real estate with regards to the listing on both sides. Do what works for you and yes there are clauses binding for an additional time to prevent buyers and sellers from cutting out the agents near the end of listings. Still happens all the time though.
I followed the REventure youtube channel for a while. The guy is a one trick pony with no track record nor a data model to support his premise. He has been wrong for so long at some point he might be right but that is based on that same idea that a broken clock also being right twice a day. While his premise seems logical, it is in-fact not supported by data. When I followed the channel the idea was that affordability was constant and prices would return to the equilibrium of affordability. There is no data to support the idea that a lack of affordability will in fact result in a lower sales prices. The correlation is related to supply and demand. Demand closely follows job growth and job creation. So unless there is massive job loss in these markets, history says there will be no return to "affordability" that he bases his forecasts on.
In fact home prices are down and inventory is up relative to 2021 highs but not anywhere near 10% which is what I would generally term to be a correction. In real value terms we have seen a small (maybe minus 2-3%) downturn in some areas of Denver but it's really hard to quantify since most homes are not exactly the same. Those that resell do not turn around and resell the next year or two without some distress in the sellers. The exception being if there is massive appreciation in the way of a remodel or the market in general.
You can do your own research to see if what this guy is peddling is of value. IMO it does not have value. Follow the "On the Market" Podcast here on BP and you will get 10x more value and insight into the market.
I think of a "crash" as being much more severe than what we've seen recently. In the markets in which I buy, there may be some longer DOM's and some concessions, but nothing like a "crash". With DOM going from maybe 45 days to 75 days, that's nothing to write home about.
But, I've gotten calls from people who are 120 + days who are pretty upset with their agents. Their 180 day contracts keep them locked in and I just have to explain to them that I can't really buy from them until they are out of contract. Even though they contacted me.
I'm just not interested in paying agent fees when the agent wasn't the one contacting me.
0 Reply

Ryan KellyBusiness Member

Real Estate Broker · Austin, TX · Member since 2018 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes

1y

Austin still has a higher inventory than a lot of markets, but most of the correction in this market happened between 2022-2024 where we've seen a price adjustment of about 20%. Currently, the good stuff is getting traffic and multiple offers. It will take another year most likely for Austin to balance out and appreciate again, but all bets are off if interest rates do come down steadily. I definitely think a "crash" is in the rear view mirror in our local market.

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Eric James

Investor · Malakoff, TX · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes

1y

BP is a place for people who don't want to believe the housing market can go down. The way Realtors never want to think it will go down.

2 Reply

Robert EllisBusiness Member

Developer · Miami, FL · Member since 2014 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes

1y

Quote from @Ken M.:

NOTE: This is Not Me making these predictions. If you can't distinguish between someone mentioning what an analyst has predicted vs what the guy bringing it to your attention believes, relax, have a glass of wine and call me in the morning.

Keep in mind, that anything someone else says regarding the accuracy, is their opinion, so relax, have a little fun. We already know the guys in D.C., FL, OH, MN, CO and San Diego are the most optimistic investors on the planet.

And, what if the data really does mean something?

*****************

"Home prices will drop in these cities in 2025 according to forecasts by Reventure. In fact, home values are already on the decline in most of these cities."

This list was created using the Home Price Forecast Score on Reventure App. The score is ranked from 0 to 100, with a lower score indicating a higher likelihood of home price declines. All these metros had scores in the low to mid-30s, indicating home price declines anywhere from 3 to 7% YoY are possible.

10. Dallas, TX
09. Sarasota, FL
08. San Antonio, TX
07. Port St. Lucie, FL
06. Austin, TX
05. Palm Bay, FL
04. Colorado Springs, CO
03. Denver, CO
02. Lakeland, FL
01. Cape Coral, FL

The numbers are available at

https://www .youtube. com/watch?v=-uJffPdLgIQ

not lakeland but I almost guarantee Cape Coral will. those areas and same with Port St. Lucie have no macroeconomic data. they have lots of people moving here but last I checked new builds in those areas were going below $200 per square foot which is absolute garbage from national builders. sarasota will not crash that market is unbelievable. I can't speak to the rest of florida but some of these are accurate. two of the 5 in florida aren't going to fall

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Corby GoadeBusiness Member

Investor · Boise, ID · Member since 2014 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes

1y

I love all of these people predicting a crash...still waiting. Been just around the corner for over 10 years now.

3% drop in values is a "crash?"

All this does is scare people and create inaction, while everyone else is out there taking a chance and making real money.

4 Reply

Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
1y
Quote from @Corby Goade:

I love all of these people predicting a crash...still waiting. Been just around the corner for over 10 years now.
3% drop in values is a "crash?"
All this does is scare people and create inaction, while everyone else is out there taking a chance and making real money.

parts of Cape Coral though are seeing easily 10 to 20% price corrections from the rampant speculation from landlords building new homes to rent.
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Noah Worley

Member since 2021 · 7 posts · 2 votes

1y

Keep telling people to not invest in my city, I want to buy everything myself lol.

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Rob Drum

Real Estate Broker · Bradenton, FL · Member since 2017 · 544 posts · 363 votes

1y

These are the year-over-year numbers for February on re-sales in Sarasota County. Softening for sure, but I wouldn't say crashing.

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Ken M.
OP
Investor · Get yourself trained before doing something inadvisable. · Member since 2024 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
1y
Quote from @Rob Drum:

These are the year-over-year numbers for February on re-sales in Sarasota County. Softening for sure, but I wouldn't say crashing.
43 days to sell (DOM) is fast in my book. although 10 months of inventory is interesting. I read that to say, if the property is priced properly & accordingly, it will sell quickly.
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Rob Drum
Real Estate Broker · Bradenton, FL · Member since 2017 · 544 posts · 363 votes
1y
Quote from @Ken M.:

Quote from @Rob Drum:

These are the year-over-year numbers for February on re-sales in Sarasota County. Softening for sure, but I wouldn't say crashing.
43 days to sell (DOM) is fast in my book. although 10 months of inventory is interesting. I read that to say, if the property is priced properly & accordingly, it will sell quickly.
It's really days to contract signed. Not sure why our MLS calls it that. Historically, it looks like it's about average for our area.
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Top 10 Cities where Home Prices will Crash in 2025

Top 10 Cities where Home Prices will Crash in 2025

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