Investor · SAN FRANCISCO, CA - California · Member since 2014 · 78 posts · 32 votes
I know that the subject line sounds ridiculous, but hear me out. After having talked to lots of turnkey sellers over the last week or so, it's clear that they price their properties at a sweet spot that will allow buyers to earn say $250-$350 cash flow per month (often, it's not clear whether that figure takes into account repairs and vacancies). So, I assume they take their purchase price, add the rehab costs, and then price the turnkey to fit into that paradigm, which of course depends on the interest rate that an investor would pay.
Five years ago, I bought some turnkey properties when rates were at 6.875 to 7 percent. Not as attractive, one might think, but the cost of the property to the investor factored in the higher interest rate. A couple of years later, I was able to refi and thus reap the benefits of the lower interest rates (instead of the turnkey operator benefiting from them).
I'm pretty doubtful that over time, folks are going to be able to refi a 4.25% loan, since the chances of rates dropping 1-2% seem at least to be slim and none.
It's always better to buy when rates are their highest, which creates a lower sales price. You're stuck with the price you pay forever, but not the interest rate.
@Shawn Mcenteer You're right--you might have years of high rates, but if the numbers work the same for you (with high rates, you'll be getting adequate cash flow, or no investor would buy it), then sticking it out with high rates is OK and getting a chance to refi is just a bonus!
It's always better to buy when rates are their highest, which creates a lower sales price. You're stuck with the price you pay forever, but not the interest rate.
this subject doesn't just apply to turnkey but to all RE investments in general. Over the long term, the cost of real estate is typically priced inversely with interest rates.
@Chad U. I think that you're right, perhaps unless you are able to buy a price way under market, and the cheap money makes it easier to purchase and rehab.
@Chad U. I think that you're right, perhaps unless you are able to buy a price way under market, and the cheap money makes it easier to purchase and rehab.
Steven,
Common sense would agree with you. Unfortunately, history is not on your side. I don't know about other markets so I will only be talking about our local market. Real estate tripled in value since 1970-1980 while interest rate went from 7% to 18%. In general, interest rate tends to move up as real estate prices and the economy are heating up and drops when real estate and the economy are getting soft. Interest rate is typically the lagging indicator.
Right now, the government is trying hard to generate 2% inflation. I see 30-year fixed rate coming down to 2.75% in the next housing correction, which would likely be around 2019-2022. Of course, that's one man's opinion so take it with two grains of salt. :0)