Nobody from x is actually from x. Solve for x.

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Nobody from x is actually from x. Solve for x.

Steven TawreseyPro Member
Flipper/Rehabber · Bainbridge Island, WA · Member since 2009 · 97 posts · 70 votes

Former X's...

Denver

Seattle

Portland

I've watched each of these cities kill it, first hand. And all of them had the same phenomenon... no one grew up here. I'm sure many other cities have seen or are seeing the same thing. AND ... it shows up years before the boom. 

I'm currently in Pittsburgh. Was in Cleveland. And everyone out here is from here. Not that that's a bad thing. 

These cities are great for cash flow and I plan on dropping some $$ for solid returns. But if I'm going to make an appreciation play, I want to find an x before it becomes an X!

Anyone else notice this? Anyone know this market? Numbers alone don't tell the story. Net population growth may be negative in these cities right now. But the question, 'where are you from' tells a lot. 

So... solve for x. What city did no one grow up in?

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Jeremiah H.
Investor · Tavares, FL · Member since 2015 · 110 posts · 24 votes
11y
Almost all of Florida is this way. I'm from Florida and live here. When people ask where I'm from they are always shocked to hear I'm a born and raised Floridian.
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  • Doug Royce
    Ocoee, FL · Member since 2014 · 12 posts · 3 votes
    11y

    I'd have to agree with what everyone is saying about Florida.  I grew up here and although it's not rare to find others who did, it's definitely not common.  The majority seem to be from up north or of Latin decent who immigrated here.

    One side note, Orlando did just build a huge performing arts center downtown and is planning on a new soccer stadium along with a few residential towers.  The tourist destinations are planning lots of new development.  The Orlando Eye was just built along with new restaurants and smaller attractions.  Orlando is a tourist town, always has been. Maybe it's time I started educating myself on vacation rentals.

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  • Robert AdamsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Broker · Henderson, NV · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 373 votes
    11y

    I was born and raised in Vegas. It was pretty uncommon to come across people that were born here when I was younger. Now that I am 35 it is becoming a lot more common to find people that were born and raised here. I have now have 4 kids that were all born and being raised here as well. We are multiplying fast lol.

    [email protected]702-349-9175
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  • Anca S.
    Palo Alto, CA · Member since 2012 · 7 posts · 1 vote
    11y

    @Jerry Kisasonak 

    Atlas Van Lines has some migration data, if that was what you were looking for.

    http://www.atlasvanlines.com/migration-patterns/

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  • Jerry Kisasonak
    Residential Real Estate Agent · Mc Keesport, PA · Member since 2012 · 449 posts · 154 votes
    11y

    Thanks @Anca S.! Yes, that is what I was referring to.

    I was surprised to see that North Dakota is at the top of the list in terms of inbound migration. What's the big appeal about North Dakota? Then I looked at the numbers. Percentage-wise they have high inbound migration. But when you look at the actual numbers it's 207 inbound and 115 outbound!

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  • Anca S.
    Palo Alto, CA · Member since 2012 · 7 posts · 1 vote
    11y

    @Jerry Kisasonak The energy boom was the appeal of North Dakota in 2014. Also keep in mind that Atlas Van Lines moves mostly corporate employees at 10k+ per relocation. Their numbers are just an indicator for trends.

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  • Darin M.
    Investor · Knoxville, TN · Member since 2013 · 124 posts · 44 votes
    10y

    I am late to this conversation but watch for a food truck scene.  Young chefs wanting to stretch their skills and supported by a demographic that wants different foods at a reasonable price trying to eek out a living while getting their "professional" lives going.  Example, East Austin 2007.   I should have bought then.  Damn it.  hahaha

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  • Shane Woods
    Real Estate Agent · Weatherford, TX · Member since 2011 · 726 posts · 284 votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Darin M.:

    I am late to this conversation but watch for a food truck scene.  Young chefs wanting to stretch their skills and supported by a demographic that wants different foods at a reasonable price trying to eek out a living while getting their "professional" lives going.  Example, East Austin 2007.   I should have bought then.  Damn it.  hahaha

     That's some outside the box thinking right there. I need you on my team :)

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  • Hugh Ayles
    Cedar Park, TX · Member since 2015 · 377 posts · 200 votes
    10y

    @Darin M.

    Around 2001 a co-worker bought a house off of Manor Rd.  I thought she was crazy.  That was east Austin and east Austin was not where you wanted to be back then.

    Now it is crazy.  You see brand new homes being built next to shacks.  Shacks are selling for $150k because of the value of the land.

    Homes are selling for $250-550/sf.

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  • Darin M.
    Investor · Knoxville, TN · Member since 2013 · 124 posts · 44 votes
    10y

    @Shane Woods I have always tried to look at "future markers" and the food trucks ride right along side the coffee shops and art galleries in the middle of bombed out neighborhoods as indicators.  

    @Hugh Ayles - yes sir.  I am carrying this lesson forward in all of my buying considerations.  not going to screw that one up again.

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