Nobody from x is actually from x. Solve for x.

34 Replies

Former X's...

Denver

Seattle

Portland

I've watched each of these cities kill it, first hand. And all of them had the same phenomenon... no one grew up here. I'm sure many other cities have seen or are seeing the same thing. AND ... it shows up years before the boom. 

I'm currently in Pittsburgh. Was in Cleveland. And everyone out here is from here. Not that that's a bad thing. 

These cities are great for cash flow and I plan on dropping some $$ for solid returns. But if I'm going to make an appreciation play, I want to find an x before it becomes an X!

Anyone else notice this? Anyone know this market? Numbers alone don't tell the story. Net population growth may be negative in these cities right now. But the question, 'where are you from' tells a lot. 

So... solve for x. What city did no one grow up in?

Asheville, NC;  Greenville, SC;  Charleston, SC;  Savannah, GA; Chattanooga, TN. Those are some I am aware of in my area. Problem is that those ships have already sailed for the most part.

Originally posted by @Steven Tawresey :

Former X's...

Denver

Seattle

Portland

I've watched each of these cities kill it, first hand. And all of them had the same phenomenon... no one grew up here. I'm sure many other cities have seen or are seeing the same thing. AND ... it shows up years before the boom. 

I'm currently in Pittsburgh. Was in Cleveland. And everyone out here is from here. Not that that's a bad thing. 

These cities are great for cash flow and I plan on dropping some $$ for solid returns. But if I'm going to make an appreciation play, I want to find an x before it becomes an X!

Anyone else notice this? Anyone know this market? Numbers alone don't tell the story. Net population growth may be negative in these cities right now. But the question, 'where are you from' tells a lot. 

So... solve for x. What city did no one grow up in?

 Phoenix without a doubt. Also Las Vegas.

Interestingly enough, my hometown is the exact opposite of that. A large majority of the people in Kansas City are from the area, or other parts of Missouri/Kansas.

You could say the same for Austin and the other Texas cities, Houston and Dallas. Also, Atlanta and Charlotte have a huge population of northerners who move there for cost of living and jobs.

@JD Martin

I've heard friends from those area rave about them. However, they're all in Denver :-P I looked at those in my initial search for a market but as you've said, the ship has sailed. 

@Anthony Gayden

When you start seeing people move in from out of town, let me know!

@Fred Conway

Every one of those cities is doing very well. Formula remains in tact. Thanks for the input!

@Frankie Baca

I love Alaska but I would never live there.  My wife lived there for a year and always threatens that shes moving, with or without me. Maybe I'll be forced to learn the market up there...

@Steven Tawresey

I personally would prefer Kansas City remain what it is, which is a nice large regional city, with affordable housing, all the amenities, and slow steady growth. It isn't a boom town by any means, but it also is not declining. No one will ever move to KC because it has great weather, or because it has great natural beauty. Still the area will remain a draw for residents of Missouri and Kansas alike because it is a job center. 

I'm in Alaska and I think that there's still room to get in, but not like you're ground floor anymore. We are seeing some peaks right now...they should continue but for how long?

Anyone in Missouri? Have family down there (in town right now) and would like to invest if it makes sense. 

James Cash, Real Estate Agent in AK (#18690)

@Vince Mayer all but private lending. Interested in mostly buy and hold, but would do SFR.

James Cash, Real Estate Agent in AK (#18690)

Salt Lake City Utah seems to have quite a few people moving in from what I've seen while visiting and hearing from others that live there.

@James Cash

We work in St. Louis and I'd say it definitely makes sense. My focus is multi-families in the city and in the surrounding areas, but I've also done SFR. There's a large housing stock in the city with lots of potential for fixer uppers. A lot of areas are seeing incoming investment and rehab work but prices haven't really tracked upwards (yet) like rents have which favors the buy and hold strategy you're considering. I'd be happy to talk with you if you're interested in the area.

Peter MacKercher, Real Estate Agent in MO (#2010004223)

@Steven Tawresey

This is a KILLER observation.  I would give you 5 votes if I could.

It is exactly what we are seeing in Utah.  Over a decade ago when I moved here from the northeast Salt Lake was totally uninspiring from a cultural standpoint.  Over the last 10 years, we have seen a surge of great new restaurants, performing arts and other amenities.  This corresponds directly with (multi)national companies moving in and bringing in outsiders.  Qualitatively, the market is up 20% in the past year.

In contrast, 80 miles north in Logan, we have seen few people from the outside world move here and the market has remained flat.  When I moved to Logan, I asked people who did not grow up here, "Are you here for school or family?"  I didn't need a third choice.

When the population of an area did not grow up there, it means that people moved there by choice and generally could afford to do so.  Look at the big cities where that has historically been the case, LA, SF, NYC.  The real estate markets have always been strong.

This is a great concept that warrants more discussion.  Your subject of this thread is ambiguous and the question you are asking us "What city did no one grow up in?" doesn't really stimulate the correlation.

Something more illuminating might be "In your city, what percentage of the population (or more specifically, home buyers) are imports and how has that affected your market?"

Does the census have numbers of population growth that breaks out internal birth rates vs relocation?

In any case, well done.

Charlotte NC.  Lived there for 2 years and never met a local.

Almost all of Florida is this way. I'm from Florida and live here. When people ask where I'm from they are always shocked to hear I'm a born and raised Floridian.

Thanks @William Hochstedler . It was a "3beersdown" type observation so my wording could probably have been better. Even still, I like the idea and I'm going to start looking for migration statics as well population statistics. 

@Jeremiah Hilliard

I've got a friend who really wants to invest in Jacksonville. Does this city follow the 'x' principle too? 

Like @Jeremiah Hilliard mentioned it seems like everyone in Florida was born and raised here.  That doesn't mean it's not a great place to invest.  There is still a ton of opportunity in Jacksonville or Tampa, especially for the fix and flip investor.  

As far as good buy and holds you would probably do better in KC or STL.  I'm currently looking for multifamily holds in these markets.

I too have seen ships sail... San Francisco Bay Area, Phoenix, Vegas, Austin, Atlanta, Orlando and soon to be Indy and Memphis.

Originally posted by @Steven Tawresey :

Former X's...

Denver

Seattle

Portland

I've watched each of these cities kill it, first hand. And all of them had the same phenomenon... no one grew up here. I'm sure many other cities have seen or are seeing the same thing. AND ... it shows up years before the boom. 

I'm currently in Pittsburgh. Was in Cleveland. And everyone out here is from here. Not that that's a bad thing. 

These cities are great for cash flow and I plan on dropping some $$ for solid returns. But if I'm going to make an appreciation play, I want to find an x before it becomes an X!

Anyone else notice this? Anyone know this market? Numbers alone don't tell the story. Net population growth may be negative in these cities right now. But the question, 'where are you from' tells a lot. 

So... solve for x. What city did no one grow up in?

 Jersey City, NJ baby.  Parts of it are still cheap and right next to Manhattan New York.  And the spillover is happening right in front of our eyes. (x is really turning into an X)

Someone beat me to it, but Charlotte was the first thing that came to my mind.  Interesting dialogue.

Originally posted by @Erik K. :

Like @Jeremiah Hilliard mentioned it seems like everyone in Florida was born and raised here.  That doesn't mean it's not a great place to invest.  There is still a ton of opportunity in Jacksonville or Tampa, especially for the fix and flip investor.  

As far as good buy and holds you would probably do better in KC or STL.  I'm currently looking for multifamily holds in these markets.

I too have seen ships sail... San Francisco Bay Area, Phoenix, Vegas, Austin, Atlanta, Orlando and soon to be Indy and Memphis.

 @Jeremiah H. was saying everyone living in florida isn't from florida, which is true. Not sure which you meant but the majority of people in florida, are from somewhere else with the exception of probably Jacksonville and the panhandle. Miami has alot of latin transplants and people with serious money moving there for the south beach life. Tampa and orlando have alot of northerners moving down there for the cost of living and weather. Pittsburgh, NY and Boston are probably the biggest cities where floridians come from. If you ever go to Tampa Rays game when they're playing a boston or NY team, it's pretty much a home game for the away team. Much of the beach towns have older retireees

@Fred Conway is correct. I'm saying most people from Florida aren't from Florida. He is also correct that it probably doesn't apply to the panhandle. 

@Steven Tawresey , I'm not familiar with Jacksonville like I am the rest of the state. Being from the Orlando area and so close to Tampa there really isn't much reason for us to travel to Jacksonville. Outside of the panhandle it's the least desirable part of the state. Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Naples, West Palm Beach, etc. are all much more attractive in my opinion

Jacksonville reminds me of south GA and I mean that as a compliment, if I could move there I would but as of right now, Tampa and orlando pay much more for my line of work. Which is probably why there's not more people moving there.

If it hasn't been said in this string of comments - Atlanta suburbs, mainly north Atlanta are host to an incredibly huge population of many transplants due to the high number of Fortune 500, 100, you name it corporate and regional headquarters.  There is so much farmland being developed, and infill lots going on all over.  Every small town downtown area has been or currently undergoing revitalization.  Similar to Charlotte, Nashville, Dallas, Houston, Austin, Portland, many cities in California.  If you also think about future appreciation locations - ex. Houston and Jacksonville are no brainers, which are two of the largest cities in the US based on square miles.  If it was my money I would head to the East coast like Atl, Charlotte, Jax, and some of the beach towns nearby.  These areas are great because of the temperate climates, proximity to beaches, and international airport access.  Somebody needs to come down to Atlanta from MIT or some other engineering school and help us figure out this traffic situation.  

Interesting topic. Does anyone know of a company/website that tracks this type of data?

@Erik K.

I'm in Indy now and I don't see it. At least not on the level of the other cities in your list. Maybe it's just the suburban sprawl and the fact that you can't walk to anything unless you're in the much maligned 'inner ring.' What makes you think Indy has big X potential?

@Che Chiu Wong

Cheap is relative I guess, and correct me if I'm wrong, but the cost of entry is still pretty high.

@Fred Conway

Good point! I used to say that about Rockies games whenever the cubs came into town. And you should've seen the World series games when Boston came to Colorado. So much for home field advantage.

@Jerry Kisasonak

Don't know of one, but would love to take a look if anyone finds it!

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