BubbleWatch -The Kind Of Increases We Saw Before The Bubble Burst

BubbleWatch -The Kind Of Increases We Saw Before The Bubble Burst

Lynnwood, WA · Member since 2015 · 221 posts · 157 votes

Courtesy of http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/ Enjoy!

The Asian Journal on California. “Two different clients both landlords because they both own rental properties came to see me last week with different problems. My first landlord client sold her residence about 8 years ago, just before the burst of the housing bubble. She made a net of $300K from the sale of her residence. She then put $100K down on a new residence, $100K on a rental with 4 units, and the last $100K on another rental with 4 units. At that time all real estate prices were sky high. So, although she made $300K on the sale of her old residence because the price was sky high, she also bought her new residence, and the two rentals also sky high.”

“The first problem with the rentals is that they are negative every month because she has many rental expenses. She’s negative almost $2K a month for 8 units. The second problem is that after 7 years, the properties have no equity. Therefore, after 7 years she lost $168K to pay for the monthly loss of $2K, and she also lost her $200K downpayment, making a grand total loss of $368K for 7 years! Now, she wants to retire and be rid of the rental properties because as she said ‘I already lost all of my $120K savings, and the $200K downpayment, I have to keep on borrowing money to cover the loss, I just want to retire now without this problem. I want to get rid of the two rental properties, but I want to keep my residence, this is what I want to do.’”

“In the other case, client sold her house five years ago and used her net proceeds of $100K to buy a 4-unit apartment. She rents out 3 units and lives in one unit. She breaks even monthly. The problem is she’s having a really hard time paying the first mortgage because husband retired last year. The bank modified her mortgage after her husband retired but the modified amount is still a burden for her. Now she wants to make one last attempt to further modify the mortgage payment. The problem is the bank has set a foreclosure sale for the property in 10 days. She has not paid the mortgage for 12 months and now has a large default of $100K. However, she wants to stop the foreclosure because she believes that she will be able to get a reasonable modification shortly. Certainly, the only way to stop the foreclosure on its tracks is with a Chapter 13 petition.”

The Toledo Blade reports from Ohio.  During 2008 and 2009, the number of new homes built fell into the low 40s a year. Pent-up demand led to a brief surge to 62 starts in 2010, but that quickly subsided. In 2012, it slumped to 46 starts with an average new-home price of $205,000. In 2013, new homes jumped to 54, with an average price of $282,000. Last year, there were 59 housing starts, with an average price of $265,000. So far this year, there have been 46 housing starts, with an average price of $334,000.”

“Jon Modene, a real estate broker at Re/Max Masters in Perrysburg, said most first-time buyers are excluded from the home starts. ‘Now, the average start price is close to $400,000, which is unheard of in this market,’ he said. ‘Before you could do a cheap ranch home for $75 a square foot. You can’t build anything under $130 per square foot now.’”

KPAX in Montana. “The Flathead Valley is known for some high quality real estate. Chuck Olson Real Estate Supervising Broker Wendy Brown says 2015 is not over and yet their gross volume is already up over 40%. She says Baby Boomers are back into investing into secondary and retirement homes, especially those migrating from Minnesota and North Dakota. But, is it too aggressive? ‘So, what it’s saying is that we are probably even growing a little too fast and we need to steady out, but it’s great news - especially for sellers,’ Brown said.”

“Remax of Whitefish co-owner Monte Gilman says in the downturn it was the Canadians that took up to 50% of the buyer’s market in Whitefish, but now make up just 5% of clientele. He says growth is currently at 15% year over year, adding it’s a seller’s market, but coming in from the Canadian side of it. ‘In Whitefish, sale prices are about $350k and the trends are that the developers are starting to develop again.’”

From Florida Today. “Homes sales — and prices — continue to climb in Brevard County. In September, the median sales price of a single-family home jumped 32 percent from a year ago, from $129,900 to $172,250, according to Florida Realtors. Mike Slotkin, an economics professor at Florida Institute of Technology, said he’s concerned about the steep year-over-year home price increase. ‘That’s such a strong price increase that I’d start to worry the market is overheating…. This is something to look at seriously because those kinds of increases are the kinds of increases we saw years ago before the bubble burst, and that was not sustainable, he said.”

“Lynn Whelpley, president of the Space Coast Association of Realtors, said that the association is glad to see rising home prices, but added that there is some concern in the association that the prices might be rising too quickly. ‘We want to be cautious that the prices don’t go too high… The rise in prices is good as long as it’s slow and steady, and the prices don’t get falsely inflated,’ she said.”

The Victoria Advocate in Texas. “The rental market is seeing the effects of the downturn in the oil industry. Rent prices are far below the statewide average and there are more rental properties on the market than there have been since the oil boom, according to area realtors. According to Lee Swearingen in his monthly report, approximately 1,800 new apartments have come on the market or are scheduled to in 2015. The apartments that have recently gone online and are offering specials to entice renters to sign a lease, said Dennis Caka, broker wit DC Realty Rentals. To compete with lowering rent prices and a surge in units on the market, they have had to lower the prices on some of their rental properties as well, Caka said.”

“With the addition of the apartments to the market, there is a flood of more units and properties for rent. ‘There’s much more rent property now than there was in the past,’ said Diane Jernigan, president of the Victoria Area Association of Realtors. ‘There’s more supply available.’”

The Greeley Tribune in Colorado. “In Greeley, we’ve seen the market go from something that was 2⁄3 single family and 1⁄3 multifamily to … closer to 50-50 right now. According to city planning documents, there are six multifamily housing projects under construction right now, totaling more than 560 new units that will hit the market once construction is done (probably in 12-24 months). To compare, only 357 single-family lots are under construction in Greeley.”

“But the question everyone is asking is this: Can Greeley absorb the huge amount of multifamily units under construction? A landlord recently told me she went to rent out a townhome in west Greeley earlier this year, but she wasn’t finding renters. She said she had to lower the monthly rent to compete with the new Owl Ridge apartments nearby.”

“Upstate Colorado Economic Development CEO Rich Werner said the market could use some loosening to keep Greeley a competitive business market. ‘We’re at the top of the food chain,’ he said. ‘You look at places like Austin, Dallas, Phoenix, Portland and Salt Lake — our competition — we’re seeing the highest median prices.’”

The New Haven Independent in Connecticut. “Esra Tara Naamani had to enlist people in high places to get Bank of America to take $215,000—and then to get inside a ‘zombie’ mansion the bank was allowing to rot. It might not sound hard to get a bank to accept $215,000. Especially when the bank agreed to take the money in a property sale. Nor might it sound hard to get a bank to unload a money-hemorrhaging architectural marvel that sat vacant for years.”

“But logic, rationality, and self-interest haven’t always factored into how BOA has handled the continued fallout of the mortgage crisis eight years after the bill started coming due for the bank’s shady and shaky subprime lending spree. The lender would start the proceedings. But it wouldn’t want to take title, because then it would be responsible for upkeep or liens.”

“In fact, Bank of America would extend the closing seven times. And still Naamani couldn’t figure out why. ‘Why is it so hard,’ she wondered, ‘to give this bank $200,000?’”

“Evan Trachten at LCI—who has a knack for spotting clues to real-estate mysteries (like this one)—figured out why BOA was moving so slowly. In addition to the basic bureaucracy problem (knowing that a closing was scheduled), the bank had accumulated close to $100,000 in liens on 500 Central. It didn’t want to swallow that loss.”

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Bill S.Pro Member
Moderator
Rental Property Investor · Denver, CO · Member since 2013 · 4k+ posts · 2k+ votes
10y

@Doug N. lots of anecdotal information. To the small apartment owners in Cali, how are they as managers? What do they know about being landlords? Many of the other examples are from small markets. We all know the market is inefficient. These small markets with unique cases could easily be outliers. The way it's written you can dismiss it as isolated bad examples or as confirming your deepest fears.  You can find the examples in any point in time. 64 housing starts does not make a bubble is a pathetic number and a lousy sample size. They really need some statistics. They do a bit better in the Greeley example with the ratio of homes to apartments but that should be coupled with stats on growing population, changes in demographics, and average rents not an isolated example of a townhome owner having to lower rent. 

IMO it's a fluff piece. The underlying premise might be correct but they did nothing to prove it. Use data to support the story not isolated human interest stories. 

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Wilton, CT · Member since 2015 · 29 posts · 8 votes
    10y

    interesting read @Doug N.. Thanks for sharing.

    Liz

  • San Antonio, TX · Member since 2015 · 125 posts · 102 votes
    10y
    Is this research implying the next bubble is soon to burst again? If so wondering what it predicts in terms of time frame. 1-2 years, 2-3, 3-5, etc. :)
  • Rental Property Investor · NY MA CT VT MT, MO · Member since 2015 · 200 posts · 116 votes
    10y

    I have wondered for 20 years why banks are so ridiculously slow at getting rid of properties  that are in default and/or vacant.  They must need the write offs or something.  I know there has to be a reason;  they've been smart enough to make the kind of profits they make in any market for thousands of years, why can't they come up with a faster way to cut losses quickly and dump properties to ready and willing buyers?  Can someone illuminate me on this?  

  • Real Estate Investor · chicago, IL · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 231 votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Alan Brown:

    I have wondered for 20 years why banks are so ridiculously slow at getting rid of properties  that are in default and/or vacant.  They must need the write offs or something.  I know there has to be a reason;  they've been smart enough to make the kind of profits they make in any market for thousands of years, why can't they come up with a faster way to cut losses quickly and dump properties to ready and willing buyers?  Can someone illuminate me on this?  

    you just asked the $64 question; I've been wondering as well. the longer homes sit, the more apt they are to deteroriate, prone to theft, etc - so they get less for the home. I think you're right - they want the write offs. that's the only logic I can think of.

  • Bill S.Pro Member
    Moderator
    Rental Property Investor · Denver, CO · Member since 2013 · 4k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    10y

    @Doug N. lots of anecdotal information. To the small apartment owners in Cali, how are they as managers? What do they know about being landlords? Many of the other examples are from small markets. We all know the market is inefficient. These small markets with unique cases could easily be outliers. The way it's written you can dismiss it as isolated bad examples or as confirming your deepest fears.  You can find the examples in any point in time. 64 housing starts does not make a bubble is a pathetic number and a lousy sample size. They really need some statistics. They do a bit better in the Greeley example with the ratio of homes to apartments but that should be coupled with stats on growing population, changes in demographics, and average rents not an isolated example of a townhome owner having to lower rent. 

    IMO it's a fluff piece. The underlying premise might be correct but they did nothing to prove it. Use data to support the story not isolated human interest stories. 

  • F/T job, P/T Investor · Victoria, British Columbia · Member since 2015 · 3 posts · 3 votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Alan Brown:

    I have wondered for 20 years why banks are so ridiculously slow at getting rid of properties  that are in default and/or vacant.  They must need the write offs or something.  I know there has to be a reason;  they've been smart enough to make the kind of profits they make in any market for thousands of years, why can't they come up with a faster way to cut losses quickly and dump properties to ready and willing buyers?  Can someone illuminate me on this?  

     Researching banks and banking has been a passion of mine for about the past four years or so. The answer to your question lies in how a bank actually works. The common belief is that a bank acts as an intermediary between saver and borrower, and they make a little interest off the deal. This is going to sound crazy if this is the first time you've heard this, but what banks actually do is create new money. It's a mind bender, but it's pretty simple - they use what is called "double entry bookkeeping". When someone gets a loan from a bank the bank creates both a credit (for the customer) and a debit (for the bank), the bank charges a little interest on top of that. As the loan is repaid the debit decreases and eventually disappears. That was my pretty horrible explanation of how banks work, but there are scores of brilliant people who have done a better job. A good American site to learn more is called ami.org (American monetary institute). Knowing how banks actually work, besides being incredibly interesting to me, allows me to make sense of the real estate market - it takes away some of the voodoo magic of housing prices and replaces it with logic. A group in the UK has made some short and simple videos explaining banks and housing price bubbles, search for positivemoney and they'll pop up.

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Greeley, CO · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Bill S.:

    @Doug N. lots of anecdotal information. To the small apartment owners in Cali, how are they as managers? What do they know about being landlords? Many of the other examples are from small markets. We all know the market is inefficient. These small markets with unique cases could easily be outliers. The way it's written you can dismiss it as isolated bad examples or as confirming your deepest fears.  You can find the examples in any point in time. 64 housing starts does not make a bubble is a pathetic number and a lousy sample size. They really need some statistics. They do a bit better in the Greeley example with the ratio of homes to apartments but that should be coupled with stats on growing population, changes in demographics, and average rents not an isolated example of a townhome owner having to lower rent. 

    IMO it's a fluff piece. The underlying premise might be correct but they did nothing to prove it. Use data to support the story not isolated human interest stories. 

    I thought the exact same thing. A bunch of really small markets using very small sample sizes and no real data. One lady had to lower her asking price for rent? With no mention of what that rent was or the rent for competing properties? I guess they didn't want us to see her asking price was most likely 50 percent more than 5 years ago, but she had lower it to only 40 percent higher lol.  No mention that greeley's vacancy rate is still 1 percent or so.  

  • Mom, wife and REI student. · Big Lake, MN · Member since 2015 · 37 posts · 3 votes
    10y

    Very interesting! I was watching a YouTube clip by Robert Kiyosaki, "Second Chance, The man who predicted the econ." and also "Why an economy crash is coming 2015-2016" and he pointed out something very similar.... the second bubble is about to pop!

    https://youtu.be/4KHUsdZeKoc (Second Chance)

    https://youtu.be/cFkHeHuuQyc (Economy crash 2015-16)

  • Rental Property Investor · East Wenatchee, WA · Member since 2014 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes
    10y

    Local market drivers will affect one's specific market much more so than cherry-picked chicken little stories from small markets across the country.  I appreciate your bringing it to our attention @Doug N. and I'm not discounting you or your efforts doing so.:)  Good to be aware of!

    We all need to be wary of buying at inflated prices just for the sake of buying.  Like most, I pass on outright or get rejected on a high  percentage of offers.  Offers specifically tailored to the sellers' pain points.  Off-market people who called me!  Even the tired baby-boomer and older landlords (one's 91 and still mowing lawns) are asking for the moon. 

    My worst investment will never be the one I passed on.  Stick to your metrics. Know your specific market and what's driving it. Do what makes sense and leave emotion and speculation out of it.  We need to buy right!  Cheers! 

  • Tarl YarberPro Member
    Flipper/Rehabber · Seattle, WA · Member since 2014 · 415 posts · 401 votes
    10y

     Amen Steve!

  • Lender · Denver, CO · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 597 votes
    10y

    I am with @Bill S. on this one.

    A site titled "the housing bubble blog" carries very little weight just because of the name, followed by the poor information I put this one away in the round file. 

    Just another example of why it is so critically important to know your local market better than anyone else and capitalize appropriately.

    Nonetheless thank you for sharing.

  • Lynnwood, WA · Member since 2015 · 221 posts · 157 votes
    10y

    @Bill S., @Travis Sperr, @Tarl Yarber, @Steve Vaughan, @Mark Ferguson

    Where there's smoke, there's fire... or just someone vaping a huge cloud.  

    Yes, these are just some anecdotes, and I believe we will be in the ascendant phase of this cycle for some time to come, but I do think it's interesting to a) keep an eye on the canaries, and b) listen to everyone's position. Really, what's more interesting than a lively discussion about the topic of our day? That's why I posted BubbleWatch - I like to hear from everyone. 

    To me, these anecdotes are more than just isolated tales of misery and woe - they illustrate patterns of behavior, influence, persuasion, rationalization and more across all of the REI market, and that's just fully fascinating. Does anyone here think that the behaviors mentioned in the Asian Journal, etc, are completely isolated examples, disconnected from the rest of society? I don't and yes, perhaps I am wrong, bit I have seen a little of this before, and parts of it look strikingly familiar.

    @Mark Ferguson says:

    A bunch of really small markets using very small sample sizes and no real data. No mention that greeley's vacancy rate is still 1 percent or so.

    (John Barnett, a Greeley city planner) “In Greeley, we’ve seen the market go from something that was 2⁄3 single family and 1⁄3 multifamily to … closer to 50-50 right now. According to city planning documents, there are six multifamily housing projects under construction right now, totaling more than 560 new units that will hit the market once construction is done (probably in 12-24 months). To compare, only 357 single-family lots are under construction in Greeley.”

    Mark - I wonder if the vacancy rate will hold at 1% once those units are on the market? 

  • Investor · Pacific Grove, CA · Member since 2015 · 34 posts · 12 votes
    10y

    Ramsey Kheshen @ Doug M.

    Very interesting article, it relates to: history will repeat itself. It is very feasible that within 5 t0 six years we might see something like that. I hope not.

  • Lender · Denver, CO · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 597 votes
    10y

    @Doug N. I can't speak to most of the markets listed in the blog post, because I do not invest in them. I am however very knowledgeable in my own market - where I follow the data relevant to my investing strategies. I am still finding deals that make sense as are a lot of other investors in my market - where if you search BiggerPockets for Denver - you will quickly find a lot of people saying this market is over priced, too hot, ready to crash.

    I often read/hear we are at the peak - there is no room for prices to continue to increase -in the Denver market between 1971 and 2015 38 of the 44 years the average price has been higher then the previous year with exception to 2006 - 2012. In my market there is no inventory available that is driving prices and rents - supply and demand says the prices will continue to rise - the units can not be built fast enough to slow the demand, let alone beat it. The lending requirements are stricter now than in the last 15 years - rates may be artificially low - but can be locked in for 30 years. I don't buy the bubble talk.

    I am focusing on one market because it is what I know. This blog post looks to me to find a handful of markets that are not as strong as they were pre-recession. My guess is that a few people from the markets included in the post  can testify they are having success in each of the markets.

  • Lynnwood, WA · Member since 2015 · 221 posts · 157 votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Travis Sperr:

    @Doug N. 

    I am still finding deals that make sense

    This blog post looks to me to find a handful of markets that are not as strong as they were pre-recession. My guess is that a few people from the markets included in the post  can testify they are having success in each of the markets.

     Travis - this is what I am interested in - the (apparent) disconnect between what is common talk on BP of a tight market and no supply, and some folks' ability to still make prudent plays in these markets. If you feel like posting - even on another thread - about your successful experiences in a market that many folks feel is way too tight, that would probably make for an interesting read!

    And yes, I think a random sample in any market can be cherry-picked for anyone's confirmation bias, but the larger question is (maybe?) how to suss that out and get a semi-realistic idea of what's likely to happen. @Mark Ferguson mentioned a 1% vacancy rate - I think that's indicative of a tight, tight market (anecdotal or not), and one that some folks could call bubbly. I'm not sure if it's normal, and if it's not normal, what shall we call it? This I believe is where a great conversation can take place!

    Take it easy! 

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Greeley, CO · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Doug N.:
    Originally posted by @Travis Sperr:

    @Doug N. 

    I am still finding deals that make sense

    This blog post looks to me to find a handful of markets that are not as strong as they were pre-recession. My guess is that a few people from the markets included in the post  can testify they are having success in each of the markets.

     Travis - this is what I am interested in - the (apparent) disconnect between what is common talk on BP of a tight market and no supply, and some folks' ability to still make prudent plays in these markets. If you feel like posting - even on another thread - about your successful experiences in a market that many folks feel is way too tight, that would probably make for an interesting read!

    And yes, I think a random sample in any market can be cherry-picked for anyone's confirmation bias, but the larger question is (maybe?) how to suss that out and get a semi-realistic idea of what's likely to happen. @Mark Ferguson mentioned a 1% vacancy rate - I think that's indicative of a tight, tight market (anecdotal or not), and one that some folks could call bubbly. I'm not sure if it's normal, and if it's not normal, what shall we call it? This I believe is where a great conversation can take place!

    Take it easy! 

     Travis hit the nail on the head. I think many people are hoping for a bubble and prices to drop like crazy so they can get good deals. The truth is lending guidelines are night and day now and pre housing crisis. This market is being fueled by low supply from no building for 8 years.  Where before it was fueled by high demand caused by easy money. 

    The article posted is obviously a bunch of cherry picked bad news articles from around the country. You could easily find twice as many saying the complete opposite and some in the same markets. Newspapers try to sell papers and get attention, they don't always tell the whole truth. Random facts can be interpreted many different ways. That is why I pay no attention to random articles.  I pay attention to statistics. Give me national or regional statistics showing prices, inventory, rents and vacancy rates. 

    A 1 percent vacancy rate does not say bubble. It says there is no inventory. High prices do not mean bubble. Prices historically rise.

    In greeley there are more apartments being built the single family. That doesn't mean bubble. Maybe rents decrease a little on condos. But that won't affect single family homes at all. They still can't build houses cheap enough to meet median housing prices. 

    If I owned huge apartment complexes here maybe I would be concerned. I would still have to look at much more data than one anecdotal story and stats on building starts. They are planning a 2,000 home subdivision .5 miles from my house and the developers say the greeley market can absorb that and then some. Maybe they are right, maybe not but our market is still increasing in value and super tight. 

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Greeley, CO · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y

    one more thing. The good investors can find deals in any market. Most investors don't take the time to learn to find deals or have the patience. You'll find lots of people complaining about not finding deals in every market. While you will find other investors encouraging them to complain and chase people away so they can get more deals. 

  • Bill S.Pro Member
    Moderator
    Rental Property Investor · Denver, CO · Member since 2013 · 4k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    10y

    @Doug N. Travis and I have both posted success stories here on BP for our Denver market. Mark openly discusses his success here and on his blog. Now they are not 2% deals but what we are doing is making us money and we are in the game and not waiting for a "bubble to pop" to make a deal. Truth is when there is a correction or a slower market most folks still complain about no deals and fear the market will keep going down. 

    The only way to invest is to figure out what you want to do and do it. Make sure that what you do makes money (as in cash flow) and you have reserves (plans b, c, and d) then you DO IT.

    Finally, no matter what the market, the best deals are not on the MLS. You have to go out and find them. The quality of the deal is inversely proportional to the number of people that know about it.

  • Lynnwood, WA · Member since 2015 · 221 posts · 157 votes
    10y

    @Bill S. Thanks for the reply! 

    I don't know if a lot of folks are waiting for the bubble to pop to get good deals - that's a long game, imo, probably 8 years out at least. 

    I post BubbleWatch articles because I am always interested in the psychology around this subject, and also to generate discussion on what is clearly a fascinating topic. It seems that there is a lot of hype and hyperbole now in REI, and I am seeing a lot of the same markers I saw right before the last recession - ie it seems like everyone's in REI, it seems like there is a generalized anxiety about 'missing out', and it seems like a lot of uneducated investors are making disastrous decisions right now.

    The examples are everywhere. (Yes, some folks call them anecdotes, but the question may be 'When do a lot of anecdotes become a trend, and when do trends become a market driver?')

    There was gent (a new investor) who posted his BP thoughts the other day on a neg-flowing deal: "That's what I'm banking on - I am hoping for appreciation (over the next four years.)" A local fellow (non REI) paid over 750k for a condo here in Ballard, saying "I know it's way too much, but it is a special end unit, and I know it will appreciate in this market".

    These are the examples that you simply don't see in a rational, non-overheated market, and this is what I like to talk about. I see these examples every single day, and to me, they have become so much more than anecdotal - it's growing into a subculture. It's especially fascinating since we are so fresh off the heels of the last bubble, and it seems as if no one can recall it - at all. 

  • Rental Property Investor · Carlisle, PA · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 543 votes
    10y

    Great dialogue from all.  I agree.  While the article doesn't provide specific data from a large sample, rather very isolated examples, it still reinforces the need to ensure a non-emotional decision is always made based on the numbers.

    Thanks all.

  • Denver, CO · Member since 2012 · 292 posts · 164 votes
    10y

    Prior to the downturn, there were FOUNDATIONAL issues which were evident (but ignored by folks making a lot of money) and which were causative.

    Right now, there are just normal ebbs and flows of the real estate market. The downturn was predictable, somewhat obvious but ignored by people making a lot of money.


    IMHO, the real risk to the real estate market are issues outside of real estate, such as our just-in-time food delivery system, energy, geopolitical issues and above mentioned issues. If you want to be afraid or worry (which I do not recommend) worry about those things.

    Real estate has always had ebbs and flows. Rental markets always go up and down and do not remain static, nor do they only head in one direction. But the tremendous downturn had a cause. Look for foundational issues, not local trends if you want to ensure long term safety. If you are playing Russian Roulette with a hot market, perhaps you need to rethink that policy and/or develop a safety net.

  • Russell BrazilBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Agent · Washington, D.C. · Member since 2012 · 17k+ posts · 30k+ votes
    10y

    @Doug N. @Mark Ferguson

    I do not not anything about the Greeley, CO market...but Forbes put its 2014 net migration number at 1090+. So with a 1% vacancy rate, and 1090 people a year moving there which is in excess of 1% population growth, adding 1,000 units of housing does not seem like an unreasonably high number.  Forbes also puts the job growth rate at 8.8%, which would seem to indicate a bigger population growth in the near future. Wikipedia puts the population growth rate at somewhere between 1-2% per year over the course of the last 14 years.

    http://www.forbes.com/places/co/greeley/

  • Lynnwood, WA · Member since 2015 · 221 posts · 157 votes
    10y

    @Russell BrazilAwesome... that's real data, perhaps the kind some posters are looking for! Thanks!

  • Real Estate Investor · the villages, FL · Member since 2008 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    10y

    Here is my simple answer to why Banks hold on to bad properties so long, right or wrong. 

    A bank makes you a 90% loan on 400K home., $360,000 loan. That 360K shows as an asset on books. The house is foreclosed on by bank and is only worth 250K. It still shows as a 360K asset on books.

    If Bank actually sells house for 250K it only shows 250K asset on books. Multiply this simple deal by thousands, and the total bank assets is reduced considerably and the health of bank doesn't look as good and may not pass the test by Feds.

    Just my thoughts.

    Rich

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