Rental Property Analysis--Is this right?

Fontana, CA · Member since 2017 · 88 posts · 36 votes

I just completed a "Four square rental property analysis" for a fourplex in my area, and according to my calculations it has a negative cash flow. Am I missing something, or is this property just that "bad" of a deal? I have outlined my analysis below, and would appreciate any insight. Thanks!

Property: Fourplex in Southern California, Inland Empire area; each unit is a 2 bed/1bath, shared laundry, in a B class neighborhood; current rents are 1050-1200; market rent could be closer to 1300/1400.

Background: I used the information and numbers given on Redfin, to make these estimates; plus, I predict a sale price of $700,000 instead of the asking, $899,900. Based on the information they give about "net operating income," this property should cash flow around $2000/mo. (if you add in vacancy, repair, and CapEx, which they do not), but that is not what I'm seeing.

Analysis: (based on current rents)

Total Monthly income = 4700

Rental income = 4400

Laundry = 300

Total Monthly expenses = 6530

Taxes = 660

Insurance = 100

Water/Sewer = 150

Trash = 70

Electric = 45

Gardner = 70

Vacancy = 215

Repairs = 400

CapEx = 400

Mortgage = 4420

Cash Flow = -1830

Cash on Cash ROI = -63% (-21960/35000)

Total Investment = 35000

Down Payment (3.5% Owner Occupied) = 25000

Closing Costs = 5000

Rehab = 0

Misc. other = 5000

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Upland/880-N-Redding-Way...

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Sam M.

Investor · Diamond Bar, CA · Member since 2012 · 79 posts · 24 votes

If you pay $175K per unit and get $1175 rent per unit, I am not surprised that it does not cash flow after considering financing, insurance, taxes, repairs, vacancies, etc. You can use the 1% rule as a rough guideline (monthly rent must be around 1% of purchase price). Of the units that I own in SoCal, I have a 3-plex that takes in 1.5% of the purchase price and it's profitable. I have other units just under 1% and they are pretty much break-even. The 1% rule is just a rule of thumb. You are doing the right thing by calculating your net income and considering all costs. All I'm saying without going through your numbers in detail is that since the rent is at 0.67% of purchase price, it's not surprising that it doesn't cash flow. What is the cap rate and how does it compare to the going cap-rate in the area?

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Laura C.
OP
Fontana, CA · Member since 2017 · 88 posts · 36 votes
9y
@Matt R. Thank you for your input! So based on what you've read and knowing that the SoCal market is possibly in a peak right now, do you mostly stick with OOS investing? I feel like if I had gotten in a few years ago, I could definitely plan for appreciation in this market, but not so sure now. Thoughts?
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Laura C.
OP
Fontana, CA · Member since 2017 · 88 posts · 36 votes
9y
@Jeff Shulman Great question! I was listening to a Podcast recently, #242, where the interviewee was talking about how he used Facebook (FB) to promote and "advertise" his properties. He has a Facebook group and he allows other landlords in his area to join and post their properties as well! Might be an option? Instagram (IG) is also gaining steam, a lot of people my age or younger, early 30s and under spend more time on IG than FB now.
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Matt R.
Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
9y
Originally posted by @Laura C.:
@Matt R. Thank you for your input! So based on what you've read and knowing that the SoCal market is possibly in a peak right now, do you mostly stick with OOS investing? I feel like if I had gotten in a few years ago, I could definitely plan for appreciation in this market, but not so sure now. Thoughts?
I have done OOS before and I found it less profitable than in state. Out of the last 30 plus years in Calif only 7 were non peak so it is more normal actually to be buying at a peak. I would be more concerned with the actual location if you are thinking long term and what that location has coming up. I mentioned the Bakersfield area which has better initial price to rent today...many demographers expect that population to double for many reasons. That has likely better potential than most OOS areas have today. One would not need to hop on a plane to invest there either.
Getting back to peak prices, understand that today that might mean same price as 10 years ago thanks to GFC. If it is at a peak today that could still mean it is 20% less than 10 years ago adjusted for inflation. Due to some locations supply constraints and consistant new demand it is possible you will never see any lower prices than today prices in many SoCal locations.
I have made recent offers on stuff just outside LA and those areas have easier points of entry. That does not mean it will be more profitable than you snagging a quad in the more desirable SoCal areas we all know of. I would strongly encourage anyone who can do that and definitely before going 1000 miles OOS away in any case. The few folks I know of who did the SoCal quad house hack thing have done extremely well and in a few short years have over 1% cash flow growing all due to location appreciation. Keeping in mind the Socal equity appreciation typically dwarfs the initial cash flow appreciation but these go hand in hand and cash flow catches up to the point some are way above 2%.
Lastly, it may take more creativity than just checking the mls. Some can look at a place and see where they can force appreciation or change up current use to change cash flow quicker. Flippers have this skill but it would work for buy and holders too.
Good luck!
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David Faulkner
Investor · Orange County, CA · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
9y
I have also done well ~45 minutes drive from you in East Lancaster and East Palmdale ... East of say 15th St East ... stay away from Central (Division St.) unless you really know what you are doing, and west side (west of 14 frwy) is nicer but more expensive. That area has a booming Aerospace and Defense industry right now ... and with global Geo-politics being what they are today, I don't see that declining anytime soon. And in spite of what some with absolutely zero experience investing and landlording here in SoCal may say, you absolutely can find stuff there that cash flows. One word of warning to caveat that, though, is that these far inland markets (including the IE, as you may already know) tend to be MORE volatile and have lower long term appreciation than the more coastal stuff that cash flows less initially. Those markets tend to crash much harder in a downturn, but then appreciate much faster when the market turns to close the price gap a bit more, but the average appreciation (over several cycles) tends to be lower ... so, the best time to buy in these type markets is actually after a crash, but that is not to say that it can't work today so long as you put in the time and effort to find a great deal before pulling the trigger, which to me is the cardinal rule to follow in any market at any time in the RE cycle. As you become more skilled at acquisitions (and value add rehab), especially off market acquisitions, you can find better and better deals and thus cash flow further and further west, or cash flow even more in the inland markets. I still have a LONG way to go with my acquisition skills, but I like to buy everything like a flipper would (and still run the cash flow analysis too), then I just flip it to the rental market instead of the sales market :)
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Laura C.
OP
Fontana, CA · Member since 2017 · 88 posts · 36 votes
9y
@Matt R. @David Faulkner Again, thank you for you insights! It helps me evaluate things a little more and know what to look for. I also really enjoy hearing success stories of people living and investing in the SoCal area, because as you mentioned, it doesn't have a great reputation for all aspects of REI. Excited to learn some more over the next couple weeks/months and then dive in for my first deal!
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Matt R.
Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
9y
Originally posted by @Laura C.:

@Matt R. @David Faulkner Again, thank you for you insights! It helps me evaluate things a little more and know what to look for. I also really enjoy hearing success stories of people living and investing in the SoCal area, because as you mentioned, it doesn't have a great reputation for all aspects of REI. Excited to learn some more over the next couple weeks/months and then dive in for my first deal!
Da nada, although it has a stellar reputation for total profits with professional investors worldwide. The slack on BP stems mostly from bpers trying to sell Californians on some far way areas and almost always for a commission. They really are not doing locals a good service with what amounts to flawed analytics.
The fact is the top 3 cities in the US with highest total profits ( cash flow + equity) since 2000 are LA, SF and San Diego. Understand more folks ( renters) live in SoCal (23 million) than in every state except Texas. That equals a lot of REI opp packed into one geographic location with nearly every type of RE investing method mixed in that massive population space. There was one pro investor who once said " if you can not make money in California real estate, you really should not be investing in real estate"
Good luck investing!
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Jeff Petsche
Real Estate Broker · Yorba Linda, CA · Member since 2017 · 154 posts · 114 votes
9y
@Matt R. I don't disagree with the appreciation piece you mentioned when looking at a big picture investment and exit strategy.
I'm just saying for our group at this time, the entry to play in the CA sandbox is just too expensive for the majority of areas we'd consider, and although some say to suck it up and buy ONE property, hold it for 2-3 years and watch the appreciation go through the roof, that's just not our play at this time.
Not to say CA won't be an option we consider in 2-4 years when it's expected to be a little better buyer's market and then rise up the next up cycle.
As for the numbers I provided, you are correct that it's not for EVERY pocket of CA. It's primarily Bay Area and parts of Southern CA.
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Sanjeev Advani
Investor · Bakersfield, CA · Member since 2015 · 483 posts · 234 votes
9y
Trevor Lohman would you mind forwarding your actual v pro forma to me as well? I am looking to invest out of state and would like to take a look at your numbers. What areas are you focused on?
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Trevor Lohman
Investor · Redlands, CA · Member since 2013 · 177 posts · 76 votes
9y
Sure thing.
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Trevor Lohman
Investor · Redlands, CA · Member since 2013 · 177 posts · 76 votes
9y
@Matt R.
I'm definitely a newbie and you obviously have a multitude more experience than I do, so this genuinely is a question. I want to see if i'm thinking about this right because I do agree with everything you just said, except I still think I'm staying out of state... for now at least. I have a completely open mind about this and I'm wondering if you can talk me out of it or not.
Doesn't this rely on buying a property prior to a pricing run up? Wouldn't now be a time to be in a less cyclical market? It seems like day 1 cash flow would be a very valid metric, at this particular time, but not necessarily all of the time. Relying on the day 1 cash flow metric would have been very prudent in 2007. A lot less so in 2002.
Even my area seems unreasonable and I'm in San bernardino county. My primary residence has almost doubled in value over 4 years. Which I think proves your point about appreciation, but again only if buying several years ago.
One more point about rent. It just doesn't seem like rent appreciation keeps up at all with price appreciation here, but in more linear markets it does. Granted a mortgage is fixed though, so I definitely see your point there! But again, we still have to rely on this market appreciating to achieve that cashflow.
I think your post has been one of the most compelling for me on this particular issue, and I plan to acquire some local properties and self manage in Southern California. Just not right now.
Ha! who knows, this might be 2003 and I'm going to miss out big time. Curious what you think, and what others think as well.
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Trevor Lohman
Investor · Redlands, CA · Member since 2013 · 177 posts · 76 votes
9y
Matt I just got caught up on some of your more recent posts, it looks like you've already addressed a lot of these points so I won't make you repeat yourself.
I'm definitely less anti-california than I was, but I'm going to give the out of state thing a shot.
Of course I think I have an accurate set of numbers and a good team, but If it does happen to turn out poorly, it will be a relatively inexpensive lesson, and by then maybe I can afford to get into something local.
Thanks for the good insight! Especially on the california market trend/historical number stuff, great points.
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Anthony Dooley
Investor · Columbus, GA · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
9y
@Laura C. Most of the deals that you analyze should not cash flow. This is because you are looking at them as a business and not a place to live. You have to look at a lot of deals, especially in your market, in order to find one worth buying. I recommend you make them an offer that will allow your numbers to cash flow, or just keep looking. Property is at record high rates in CA and other parts of the country, so passing on this is smart.
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Dan H.Pro Member
Investor · Poway, CA · Member since 2015 · 7k+ posts · 8k+ votes
9y
Originally posted by @Trevor Lohman:
@Matt R.
I'm definitely a newbie and you obviously have a multitude more experience than I do, so this genuinely is a question. I want to see if i'm thinking about this right because I do agree with everything you just said, except I still think I'm staying out of state... for now at least. I have a completely open mind about this and I'm wondering if you can talk me out of it or not.
Doesn't this rely on buying a property prior to a pricing run up? Wouldn't now be a time to be in a less cyclical market? It seems like day 1 cash flow would be a very valid metric, at this particular time, but not necessarily all of the time. Relying on the day 1 cash flow metric would have been very prudent in 2007. A lot less so in 2002.
Even my area seems unreasonable and I'm in San bernardino county. My primary residence has almost doubled in value over 4 years. Which I think proves your point about appreciation, but again only if buying several years ago.
One more point about rent. It just doesn't seem like rent appreciation keeps up at all with price appreciation here, but in more linear markets it does. Granted a mortgage is fixed though, so I definitely see your point there! But again, we still have to rely on this market appreciating to achieve that cashflow.
I think your post has been one of the most compelling for me on this particular issue, and I plan to acquire some local properties and self manage in Southern California. Just not right now.
Ha! who knows, this might be 2003 and I'm going to miss out big time. Curious what you think, and what others think as well.
These are my opinions and may not fully jive with Matt's opinions.
I consider timing the RE market akin to timing the stock market. There are people who can do it consistently but most people fail miserably. Are we at the top of the market? I do not know but I know the long term appreciation trends of So Cal are very positive. I have purchased near market highs in 1993 and 2004. Both depreciated close to 20% at the low. Both have been great investments. The 1993 purchase was $167k, fell to ~$140k, today is worth ~$550k. The 2004 purchase was $741k, fell to ~$620k, today is ~$925k.
Rent versus appreciation: in my market rent appreciation has consistently lagged behind property appreciation and so far that is holding true for this appreciation cycle (rents also lag behind when property depreciates). In 2012 the 2% rule was possible in San Diego. I think today 1% is a tough find (very tough find?). What this tells me is that rent is likely to keep rising even if property values stagnate. Adding to this view is minimum wage is rising and we continue to have minimal supply but huge demand. I fell confident that, short of something catastrophic, rents will rise for the next 5 years.
For those that do not believe there are cash flowing deals in So Cal there are as I get presented them slightly regularly. About a month ago I posted numbers on BP of an RE that I evaluated. It cash flowed with what many view to be conservative cap expense numbers (if interested search my old posts). I evaluated one last weekend that also cash flowed with conservative cap expense numbers (San Diego county cash flowing properties are out there). Maybe if someone requests I will post my numbers from last weekend's evaluation.
I always recommend new investors start local and self managed for the learning opportunity. I understand OOS can be tempting. Good luck with whatever you choose.
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Laura C.
OP
Fontana, CA · Member since 2017 · 88 posts · 36 votes
9y
@Trevor Lohman I think the electricity listed is for the common areas like laundry rooms, building lights for pathways, etc.
Per your comment about a local method, yes, I'll keep you in the loop, so we can see how many people we can get to copy and paste the method! Haha!
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Laura C.
OP
Fontana, CA · Member since 2017 · 88 posts · 36 votes
9y
@Matt R. @Jeff Petsche Both good points and things to ponder! Thank you!
1 Reply
Laura C.
OP
Fontana, CA · Member since 2017 · 88 posts · 36 votes
9y
@Anthony Dooley Thank you for your input! I am definitely passing on this one for now, I'm not ready for that scale, but did want to put out feelers for my analysis process. Also a good point about cash flow when looking at the long-term goals.
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Laura C.
OP
Fontana, CA · Member since 2017 · 88 posts · 36 votes
9y
@Dan H. Thank you for your input! I would be very interested in seeing the numbers from your latest evaluation!
I also appreciate you sharing your experience, because while I'm interested in a monthly cash flow, my intent is to hold on to the property/properties for a long period of time. Perhaps the cash flow will come over time, as another member mentioned, even though Day 1 it may be minimal.
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Dan H.Pro Member
Investor · Poway, CA · Member since 2015 · 7k+ posts · 8k+ votes
9y
Originally posted by @Laura C.:

@Dan H. Thank you for your input! I would be very interested in seeing the numbers from your latest evaluation!
I also appreciate you sharing your experience, because while I'm interested in a monthly cash flow, my intent is to hold on to the property/properties for a long period of time. Perhaps the cash flow will come over time, as another member mentioned, even though Day 1 it may be minimal.
If you do not count principle pay down in the cash flow then the cash flow is typically low on day 1.
I have purchased properties that were cash neutral because they were priced a little below market but mostly because I was convinced that there would be both property and rent appreciation. Those properties have done well. In Mar 2014 i purchased a duplex for $390k that I believed had value of $450k, but appraisal put at $415k, but was projected no cash flow. Today all of initial investment has been pulled via a refi and it is cash flowing fine (rent is $3200 but market rent is $3400).
Today I am less confident of market appreciation but I am still confident of rent appreciation. I have yet to hear of any study indicating otherwise and the factors I listed previously support on-going rent appreciation.
So if I purchase a cash neutral San Diego duplex today I would expect it to flow $100 to $200 a year from now, $200 to $400 two years from now. Beyond 2 years it gets harder to forecast but I expect rents to rise over the next 5 years.
I will post my analysis from last weekend on a different post but I am not indicating it cash flowed good on day 1 compared to some OOS locales.
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Dan H.Pro Member
Investor · Poway, CA · Member since 2015 · 7k+ posts · 8k+ votes
9y
This property (duplex) was priced where it was tempting ($357K) but I passed because I was unsure the locale would support any forced appreciation via rehab. It is located in Escondido, Ca. Basically the street was busy and the density was a little high.
Market rent not rehabbed: $1300 or $1350 for non rehabbed detached 2/1 with a small yard and 1 car garage in that area. Per Unit so Times 2 for total rent of the duplex. Rehabbed in same area, but maybe not that exact location, would have rent at $1500.
Cap expense: Use $450/month cap ex (many think this is high but it is what I would use for that property).
Vacancy: 5% vacancy ($130: I actually have significantly lower than 5% vacancy but use 5% in my calculations).
Management: self managed $0 (We only use management on our STR).
Maintenance: $80 maintenance.
Property tax: 1.25%/12 prop tax = $370 (1.25% is a little high but better too high than too low)
Insurance: $65 (I get good insurance rates - newbie probably needs to use $80 to $90).
Utilities: $0 (Tenants pay all utilities).
30 yr conventional loan at 80% LTV at 4 3/8%: $1427.
---
Not rehabbed:
Rent: $2600 to $2700
Cost: $450 (cap ex) + $130 (vacancy) + $80 maintenance + $65 insurance (Many should use a higher number) + $370 (prop tax) + 1427 loan = $2522
Cash flow without principle pay down: $78 to $178 per month
Cash flow with principle pay down (principle pay down starts at $385 - goes up a bit each month): $463 to $563 per month
Cash flow without including principle pay down is not great but it is getting hard to find good cash flowing properties.
I am also very confident of continued rent increases in the near term (next 5 years). Why?
- Rent have not caught up to the property appreciation. Rents lag in both directions the property values.
- Minimum wage is increasing.
- Supply and demand. Simply there is not enough housing and building costs are high, land is limited.
- Every study is forecasting continued rent appreciation.
So the small cash flow is likely to increase annually for at least the next 5 years.
If this property was located somewhere else (even just a couple of blocks away) I would have purchased it as it would have had forced appreciation opportunity and had cash flow.
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Shawn AckermanPro Member
Real Estate Entrepreneur · Mid West, East Coast · Member since 2015 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
9y
@Laura C. Doesn't seem like a deal.....Unless you are betting on appreciation and looking to come to the table every month with money to maintain it then I'd say walk. If there is some value add potential maybe consider it but those are the only two circumstances that would get me to even consider something with these type of numbers. At minimum you should be able to realize 1% rents. Best of luck to you.
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Laura C.
OP
Fontana, CA · Member since 2017 · 88 posts · 36 votes
9y
@Dan H. Thank you for the break down! This is very helpful!
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Laura C.
OP
Fontana, CA · Member since 2017 · 88 posts · 36 votes
9y
@Shawn Ackerman Thanks for the input! I am not going to pursue this deal. It has really helped to get feedback on the analysis though!
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Dan H.Pro Member
Investor · Poway, CA · Member since 2015 · 7k+ posts · 8k+ votes
9y
Originally posted by @Shawn Ackerman:

@Laura C. Doesn't seem like a deal.....Unless you are betting on appreciation and looking to come to the table every month with money to maintain it then I'd say walk. If there is some value add potential maybe consider it but those are the only two circumstances that would get me to even consider something with these type of numbers. At minimum you should be able to realize 1% rents. Best of luck to you.
1% in coastal So Cal is currently virtually impossible to find and typically not necessary to have positive cash flow. So if you wait for 1% in coastal So Cal you may be waiting a long time.
Value add is the best way to find properties that can make sense in the very short-term. Long term the appreciation historically has been a sure thing (going back more than 60 years).
Coastal So Cal is different than most other markets. The price points are set by a market that recognizes the historical long term appreciation and the minimal supply and strong demand. It's just different and takes some getting used to.
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Matt R.
Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
9y
Originally posted by @Trevor Lohman:

@Matt R.
I'm definitely a newbie and you obviously have a multitude more experience than I do, so this genuinely is a question. I want to see if i'm thinking about this right because I do agree with everything you just said, except I still think I'm staying out of state... for now at least. I have a completely open mind about this and I'm wondering if you can talk me out of it or not.
Doesn't this rely on buying a property prior to a pricing run up? Wouldn't now be a time to be in a less cyclical market? It seems like day 1 cash flow would be a very valid metric, at this particular time, but not necessarily all of the time. Relying on the day 1 cash flow metric would have been very prudent in 2007. A lot less so in 2002.
Even my area seems unreasonable and I'm in San bernardino county. My primary residence has almost doubled in value over 4 years. Which I think proves your point about appreciation, but again only if buying several years ago.
One more point about rent. It just doesn't seem like rent appreciation keeps up at all with price appreciation here, but in more linear markets it does. Granted a mortgage is fixed though, so I definitely see your point there! But again, we still have to rely on this market appreciating to achieve that cashflow.
I think your post has been one of the most compelling for me on this particular issue, and I plan to acquire some local properties and self manage in Southern California. Just not right now.
Ha! who knows, this might be 2003 and I'm going to miss out big time. Curious what you think, and what others think as well.
Right on. Timing plays a role and perhaps longer term might matter less. Eventually some market fundamentals play the bigger role. Here is the thing for some SoCal locations and maybe the majority, I do not know of one single buyer who lost money long run. I am sure there are thousands who have lost in some SoCal locations but certainly it would not be normal to lose long haul in OC etc...
I know of folks who purchased out of state including myself and most if not all would have been better off ( more profitable) staying local including myself. There are market forces here that are not as common OOS. When I look for the most successful investors I know of that buy and hold OOS, the state they buy in is Calif.
I am not opposed to OOS, just make sure it is as close in the fundamentals as all the locations you are passing over perhaps. And try not to fall for the future cash flow on paper, rather understand those local market influencers that would make the locations future cash flow growth worthwhile. Investing can be a hassle, just make sure it is worth the hassle. Finally, when your future kids ask where daddy invested back in 2017/18...what location do you think they hoped daddy had the smarts to pick?
Good luck!
1 Reply
Jeff Petsche
Real Estate Broker · Yorba Linda, CA · Member since 2017 · 154 posts · 114 votes
9y
@Matt R. Isn't it interesting that the LA metro area has the fourth-highest share of renters in the nation. Using 2015 Census data, the study found that just under 54 percent of LA homes, condos, and apartments are renter, rather than owner, occupied. However, in another study about the 5 Best and Worst Cities for Affordable Rents, Los Angeles was #4 as the WORST U.S. city for affordable rent (Average Rent: $1,940 and rent as a share of income was 37%).
Being a born and raised Southern California guy, it's always amazed me that people are willing to over extend themselves to live in California where we have the highest state income tax of any other state, home prices are some of the highest in the country and obviously it's not cheap to rent here either, but peeps want the sunshine, etc. lol
Based on an article in Forbes surrounding the 5 Best and Worst Cities for Affordable Rents, here were the findings: (Not sure if this information matters much OR will help other RE investors make informed decisions on where they choose to invest for BUY/HOLD properties, but I'm a believer that we all need to be educated and informed, and share with one another, so here you go)
The 5 worst U.S. cities for affordable rent
#5 Orange County, California (Average Rent: $1,900; Rent as a share of income: 28%)
#4 Los Angeles, California (Average Rent: $1,940; Rent as a share of income: 37%)
#3 Manhattan, New York (Average Rent: $3,500; Rent as a share of income: 54%)
#2 San Diego, California (Average Rent: $1,750; Rent as a share of income: 30%)
#1 Miami, Florida (Average Rent: $1,390; Rent as a share of income: 36%)
The 5 best U.S. cities for affordable rent
#5 Columbus, OH (Average Rent: $850; Rent as a share of income: 17%)
#4 San Antonio, TX (Average Rent: $910; Rent as a share of income: 20%)
#3 Kansas City, MO (Average Rent: $870; Rent as a share of income 16%)
#2 St. Louis, MO (Average Rent: $830; Rent as a share of income 17%)
#1 Indianapolis, IN (Average Rent: $800; Rent as a share of income 17%)
Original Article If Interested
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