Rental Property Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2017 · 126 posts · 65 votes
I am not sure what to make of this real estate market in 2019. The prices are out of control for lousy multi families. These properties don’t cash flow unless you buy with 50% deposit.
With 30% down, you’re just breaking even. I’m talking C&D properties in C&D areas.
In Cincinnati where I invest, a 4plex a year ago was listed for $35k- 40k door. Now they are listed for $50k plus/door. Rents remain the same.
In NJ where I’m also looking. Prices are 20-30% higher than a year ago. The lack of supply are causing owners to ask sky high prices for fixer uppers.
This trend has continued for the last few years but the last 12-18 months it seems really out of control.
Im interested to hear the opinion of other investors here on the current market? It seems everyone is chasing “ doors” without calculating the numbers in my opinion.
I am not sure what to make of this real estate market in 2019. The prices are out of control for lousy multi families. These properties don’t cash flow unless you buy with 50% deposit.
With 30% down, you’re just breaking even. I’m talking C&D properties in C&D areas.
In Cincinnati where I invest, a 4plex a year ago was listed for $35k- 40k door. Now they are listed for $50k plus/door. Rents remain the same.
In NJ where I’m also looking. Prices are 20-30% higher than a year ago. The lack of supply are causing owners to ask sky high prices for fixer uppers.
This trend has continued for the last few years but the last 12-18 months it seems really out of control.
Im interested to hear the opinion of other investors here on the current market? It seems everyone is chasing “ doors” without calculating the numbers in my opinion.
The first step in your analysis should be who is doing the buying? In my area (Raleigh NC historically), the hedge funds stopped buying a few years ago. The SFR buyers of NOO (Non-Owner Occupied) property tend (depending on the area/neighborhood) to be not local. For apartments, I see LLCs from all over, but that's the way it's always been where I am.
Pick a few recent buyers in your "space" from public records and drill down. Are they first timers? What bank financed them or did they buy w/o leverage? Is the purchase a 'turn-key', a value add play, straight retail, ? Who brokered the deal? Was this the result of a flip or value add play?
As you start getting answers, you may see a picture developing that brings clarity to your market, OR may provide insight that you maybe didn't expect.
I've been on the sidelines for a while since I see the same phenomenon. But deals still close, so it helps (me at least) to understand who is doing the buying.
Fayetteville, AR · Member since 2018 · 95 posts · 62 votes
7y
I agree with what you're seeing. In the market I live in, you can't even come close to a 1% rule. I'm curious as to why/how people are buying multifamily properties here right now. New construction duplexes are listed from $450k-$550k (and selling). Rents can't possibly be over $1800/door (generous). Older duplexes that need work, renting for $800/door are $250k-$350k. Quads aren't any better.
These multis are flying off the shelves like hot cakes.
This can’t continue but there’s still. Plenty of money chasing poor returns
It can't continue. It's frustrating for those of us being smart and looking for strong returns. Currently trying to figure out what markets can truly deliver the returns I am looking for.
Rental Property Investor · Edmond, OK · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
7y
I was looking for a duplex to house hack last year. In my market I was having issues trying to find one that would cash flow on a 30 year fixed. I decided to hold off on my multifamily search for now because I am not going to pay more for a duplex than I am willing pay for 2 equivalent SFHs.
I am not sure what to make of this real estate market in 2019. The prices are out of control for lousy multi families. These properties don’t cash flow unless you buy with 50% deposit.
With 30% down, you’re just breaking even. I’m talking C&D properties in C&D areas.
In Cincinnati where I invest, a 4plex a year ago was listed for $35k- 40k door. Now they are listed for $50k plus/door. Rents remain the same.
In NJ where I’m also looking. Prices are 20-30% higher than a year ago. The lack of supply are causing owners to ask sky high prices for fixer uppers.
This trend has continued for the last few years but the last 12-18 months it seems really out of control.
Im interested to hear the opinion of other investors here on the current market? It seems everyone is chasing “ doors” without calculating the numbers in my opinion.
The first step in your analysis should be who is doing the buying? In my area (Raleigh NC historically), the hedge funds stopped buying a few years ago. The SFR buyers of NOO (Non-Owner Occupied) property tend (depending on the area/neighborhood) to be not local. For apartments, I see LLCs from all over, but that's the way it's always been where I am.
Pick a few recent buyers in your "space" from public records and drill down. Are they first timers? What bank financed them or did they buy w/o leverage? Is the purchase a 'turn-key', a value add play, straight retail, ? Who brokered the deal? Was this the result of a flip or value add play?
As you start getting answers, you may see a picture developing that brings clarity to your market, OR may provide insight that you maybe didn't expect.
I've been on the sidelines for a while since I see the same phenomenon. But deals still close, so it helps (me at least) to understand who is doing the buying.
Real Estate Agent · Chicago, IL · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
7y
I am a broker and sell lots of class A/B. Buyers are mostly owner occupants living in unit and they profit off appreciation/cashflow in later years as rents rise but mortgage stays same. Even seeing just a rise on par with inflation can be very profitible if you buy 5-20% down.
On the bigger deals (over 800k) I get a lot of cash or 1031 buyers looking for a headache free investment. A lot of these guys bought low cap rates in class A/B decade ago and now have more then doubled their money.
For cheaper deals under $400k lots of people who do some sort of value add while living in it. Many BP buyers here.
An interesting one I recently did was an overseas investor cash. They wanted a frame building due to being able to depreciate frame much faster then brick under their tax laws.
Rental Property Investor · Leander, TX · Member since 2018 · 183 posts · 264 votes
7y
I'm not sure your observation is true for all markets. I'm still finding some decent deals in Cleveland. My sweet spot is neighborhoods between B- and C-, small multi-family properties that are somewhat distressed and in need of cosmetic rehab.
Investor · Greenville, SC · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes
7y
How many properties are you analyzing? In this market, it may take 100-200 opportunities flowing through your funnel to close on 1. Real estate investing is all about deal flow...lots of it.
After all, Cleveland found a great deal in Odell Beckham. Lol
What neighborhoods do you invest in Cleveland? You buy Triplex and quads ?
I've bought in Brooklyn, Old Brooklyn, Clark-Fulton, Shaker Heights, Cleveland Heights, Waterloo, East Cleveland. Several duplexes, a couple of triplexes, a couple of quads. On paper they will all cash flow quite well. But, we'll see: most of them are fresh off renovations so not yet rented.
Im interested to hear the opinion of other investors here on the current market? It seems everyone is chasing “ doors” without calculating the numbers in my opinion.
These multifamilies are acquired by several popular individuals who are using multimedia to attract their own investors and show continuous acquisitions. They benefit if the prices go up.
Im interested to hear the opinion of other investors here on the current market? It seems everyone is chasing “ doors” without calculating the numbers in my opinion.
These multifamilies are acquired by several popular individuals who are using multimedia to attract their own investors and show continuous acquisitions. They benefit if the prices go up.
It starts to sound like maybe 2005ish depending on the market. Skyrockets in flight!
You know what skyrockets are designed to do, right? ;>)
With 1 acquisition, in the books, for 2019 we continue to grow the portfolio and our team!
The market is tight, and competitive, nonetheless we are sticking to our underwriting mandates and looking for the "needle in the haystack".
One benefit we have is the fact that we WANT to but DO NOT NEED to do deals. If deals don't hit our hurdles we don't move forward - it's that simple. We'd rather be out of pocket for some attorney fees, inspections, and earnest money than get into a bad deal.
We're in full operations and acquisitions mode but are very - Very - VERY patient.
Rental Property Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2017 · 126 posts · 65 votes
7y
@Henry Lazerow
From what I see, it’s the lack of inventory driving up prices.
If you just go on LoopNet, you see only 1-2 pages of listings this year for MF for my markets compared to 3-4 pages last year. I get a lot less email alerts and listings from agents in 2019.
Rental Property Investor · York, PA · Member since 2017 · 377 posts · 315 votes
7y
@Alan Zee - In answer to your question about rivers drying up: LoopNet is not a river. You need to network with living people who will become your potential sources of deals. Go to the local meetups, send out yellow pages, knock on doors, make phone calls, talk with your uncle who is a landlord and will probably sell at some point, talk with the realtor who gave you your last deal.
I have nothing against LoopNet and other MLS sites - they are definitely still a source of deals but those deals are looked at by every Tom, Dick, and Jane out there. Another local investor in my area has a portfolio that he sometimes sells from in order to buy his kids / nieces / self something... and any time I talk with him, he mentions two or three properties that he'd be willing to sell. With my current network, I'm actually up against my own finances rather than a lack of deals... but I wouldn't have had that without meeting this guy at the local meetup.
This is just one example and isn't my only source of deals in the past, but I think that the real metaphor should be a "canal" rather than "river" - your canal is only as big as you make it, and if it starts drying up... well, start digging and make it bigger! MLS / LoopNet is a river metaphor: it's as big as it's going to get, and it can dry up as more people siphon off deals.
Real Estate Broker · Naples, FL · Member since 2013 · 9k+ posts · 6k+ votes
7y
Our local market is definitely moving to a buyers market. I still see stupid money overpaying for properties. I am waiting for the right deal and will buy even though our market is shifting. Rentals will still pay me whether the market is a buyers or sellers market.