Would you take the 200K and run? Or wait for more appreciation?

Would you take the 200K and run? Or wait for more appreciation?

Investor · MI · Member since 2019 · 112 posts · 221 votes

Hi! So curious what you guys would do in our position.

We bought a house in Seattle (White Center) five years ago and it has appreciated around 200K so far. Each year, we spent a few months in Michigan and we Airbnb’d the Seattle house while we were gone. We did so well with it that when we moved back to Michigan full-time this January, we made the Seattle house a full-time Airbnb. We had it booked 90% of the time and then Covid hit and they all canceled. Then, bookings came back up...but, then the protests started and we are back to zero bookings for the entire summer.

We are in the process of looking for flips and buy and holds here in Michigan to go full speed ahead with investing and we are looking at all of our options.

We can:

1. Get a full time renter in Seattle and break even after paying a property management company. Side note, we were cash flowing over $1000 a month doing Airbnb, so making zero cash flow isn’t as fun. 

2. Weather the Airbnb storm and pay our mortgage out of pocket for a few months (hopefully, that would be it). 

3. Sell it and take the 200K and put it towards a new primary home since we are looking for one anyway. 

4. Sell it and take the 200K and invest in multiple homes here in MI to flip and BRRRR.

Obviously, the house has a history of amazing appreciation. But, it makes me wonder if we could do more with the 200K than maybe it would appreciate in the long run. Seattle has such great appreciation typically, but with so much turmoil happening, it’s making me wonder. My gut says we would be crazy to sell such a great long term appreciation home, but also, if we sell now, we don’t have to worry about 1031 exchange or capital gains. 

Ok, just wondering what you would do??

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Rental Property Investor · RVA · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 4k+ votes
6y

I would sell and invest that $200k in properties that will cash flow with long term tenants in a more stable market. Your part of MI may or may not be stable, I am not an expert on MI.

I recently talked with a full-time passive Short Term Rental owner. He lives outside the US and remotely manages his STRs. One of his keys to successful STR investing was only buying properties that can also work as long term rentals.

If your current property doesn't produce cash flow as a LTR after paying a PM and maintenance and cap ex reserves and vacancy, then cash in on that appreciation while you have that sweet, sweet capital gains tax exemption (terms and conditions apply, talk to a CPA about whether you actually do qualify in your specific situation). 

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  • Rental Property Investor · RVA · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    6y

    I would sell and invest that $200k in properties that will cash flow with long term tenants in a more stable market. Your part of MI may or may not be stable, I am not an expert on MI.

    I recently talked with a full-time passive Short Term Rental owner. He lives outside the US and remotely manages his STRs. One of his keys to successful STR investing was only buying properties that can also work as long term rentals.

    If your current property doesn't produce cash flow as a LTR after paying a PM and maintenance and cap ex reserves and vacancy, then cash in on that appreciation while you have that sweet, sweet capital gains tax exemption (terms and conditions apply, talk to a CPA about whether you actually do qualify in your specific situation). 

  • Investor · MI · Member since 2019 · 112 posts · 221 votes
    6y

    Really appreciate the advice! And, it’s secretly what I wanted to hear. But, I tend to be more of a risk taker, so I don’t want to be stupid about it just because I want to make moves.

  • Real Estate Agent · Sevierville, TN · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    6y

    @Nikki Closser I'm a vacation rental investor and so that's my bias (in my market we took a relatively brief hit from Covid but are now back better than ever), but I have to say, if you have the opportunity to take the gains free and clear (consult your CPA) I'd say cash in.  Who knows what the market is going to do over the next year or two with everything that's happening, but since it seems you'll be able to take the gains no strings attached, I'd say do it.  Maybe Seattle will appreciate more, maybe it'll slow down or even go backwards for awhile, but if you're not cash flowing in the meantime it sounds like that's a gamble that's more trouble than it's likely worth.

  • Investor · MI · Member since 2019 · 112 posts · 221 votes
    6y

    Thanks for the feedback! It’s like, if the house keeps appreciating 35K per year, even if we didn’t cash flow, it makes me really hesitant to sell. But, you really never know what will happen!

  • Real Estate Agent · Seattle, WA · Member since 2014 · 87 posts · 39 votes
    6y

    I would sell. Your home is in the sweet spot for pricing since median priced homes tend to do well especially in our current market. Inventory is still low here so I think it makes sense to sell and capitalize elsewhere. And because you qualify for the cap gains exclusion, its a no-brainer imo. Best of luck in MI. 

  • Professional · Canton, MI · Member since 2016 · 296 posts · 230 votes
    6y

    @Nikki Closser In real estate, money is usually made on the buy. Those who bought in the downturn of the recession or in the few years after have made the lions share of the money they’ll make on those properties. Could they continue to appreciate at a nice rate? Sure, but it’s unlikely that they’ll make near as much (proportionally) in the days to come as they’ve already made. Given that, I’ve always been of the mind to take the money once I think I’ve made most of the short term gains and then move on. I’d sell if I were you.

  • Investor · MI · Member since 2019 · 112 posts · 221 votes
    6y

    Thanks so much for your thoughts on this! 

  • Theresa HarrisPro Member
    Member since 2019 · 15k+ posts · 11k+ votes
    6y

    Do you ever plan to move back to Seattle?  I bought places in the market where I want to retire as that market is very different than where I love now.  buying there and doing long term rentals means it will be easier for me to get into that market (it saw crazy appreciation while the market where I live is flat).  If you don't plan on  moving back there, I'd sell and use that money for several long term rentals where you currently live.

  • Investor · Norman, OK · Member since 2017 · 75 posts · 53 votes
    6y

    @Nikki Closser - I would consider taking out a HELOC on the house to access most of the $200k and rent to house. You get to take advantage of further potential appreciation while still accessing the equity to invest elsewhere. The HELOC would be interest only, so it wouldn't destroy your cashflow.

  • Rental Property Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    6y

    @Nikki Closser hard to answer this since it depends on your goals. If you just moved in Jan 2020 from living there as your primary then as long as you sell before Jan 2023 I believe you would still be eligible for the 121 cap gains tax exclusion (consult a tax pro). You could continue to benefit from the appreciation if you don't need the capital for at least two more years. If it was me I would probably continue to hold another two years provided I could at least break even and I didn't need the capital. I live in So-Cal so I personally would have a hard time selling an asset in a market that has a solid track record of appreciation. However, $200k is a significant "bird in the hand" and you might want to lock in your profit. After all, it would take you approx 17 years of $1k/mo cash-flow to make $200k (not accounting for principal pay-down and appreciation). If I didn't ‘need all of the $200k I would probably hold 2 more years and get a Heloc on that property for to do BRRRR investing. If the Heloc is not enough to begin BRRRR investing and there's not another way to do it other than selling, I would sell and take the $200k and use that to start BRRRR investing. What a great position to be in. Congrats!

  • Michael HaasBusiness Member
    Real Estate Agent · Redmond, 🌧️ Seattle Investor-Agent | 🤑 Helped 400+ Clients Invest in Real Estate | 🏘️ Owns 23 WA Rentals & Airbnbs | 🏗️ Built 5 DADU's | 📈 You Can Do It Too · Member since 2016 · 724 posts · 3k+ votes
    6y

    As someone who moved away from Seattle "for good" then came back 2 years later I'd think long and hard about whether you see yourself coming back. If the answer is no I'd cash out - market is still very strong here due to limited inventory and I'm sure you could make some waves in a lower cost market with $200k cash in your pocket. Plus, as others have mentioned, the 2-out-of-5 years rule for avoiding capital gains is a godsend, so even if you decide to hold I'd revisit the question again before that 5 year window closes. Best of luck and feel free to reach out if you have questions about the sale!

    HouseHack Seattle | Michael Haas & Team572 Reviews
  • Rental Property Investor · Canton, OH · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    6y

    @Nikki Closser

    Personally, I would do anything I could to get out of Seattle.

  • Rental Property Investor · Valley cottage NY · Member since 2017 · 35 posts · 37 votes
    6y

    Sell and take the 200k and invest it. If you invest wisely that can produce some serious cash flow as well as reinvesting the capital if you BRRRR correctly. For me I would sell right away no questions asked!

  • Shiloh LundahlPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Gilbert, AZ · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    6y

    @Nikki Closser I would personally sell if I were in the same situation. The political climate of that area and the laws that favor tenants rights over land lord rights or the general lawlessness going on right now would be enough for me to want to move my business elsewhere. 

    With 200k and good real estate education, you could turn that 200k into 300k to 400k  within a years time by BRRRRing 5 - 10 deals within the year.  The key is going to be buying right and having hard money lenders, private money lenders, and investor minded bankers to make this process work.

    So far this year, if you just look at what we have done in the Triad area of North Carolina (Greensboro, Winston-Salem, and High Point), we have purchased 4 properties with a total of about 20k of our own money and we’ve created 80k-90k increase in net worth by buying right and renting (really lease optioning) right. By the end of the year I suspect that we will have at least 10 properties out there valued at about 800k with about 500k-600k debt On the portfolio using roughly 50k of our own money.

    So if I were you, I would absolutely sell and start using the money as working capital.

  • Whitney HuttenPro Member
    Investor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    6y

    @Nikki Closser I work with several clients who have rentals in Seattle that all appreciated well.  The market there has been toppy for a while.  How long will that hold?  Who knows.  I have one client who can't move their property even now due to the price point... no one is buying.  Also, I would not want to be a landlord right now with the laws the way they are in Seattle during/post COVID (and is primed to get worse).  I love living in a blue area, just don't want to landlord in one.  If I have a tenant in trouble, I want to have a choice on how I help them out, not be forced into a solution that may not fit for either one of us.

    If you have no intentions of going back, then why not sell the property and spread that equity over multiple properties and grow your portfolio?

  • Rental Property Investor · Boston, Massachusetts (MA) · Member since 2016 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    6y

    @Nikki Closser how about sell and 1031 into a better house in the area if you want to stay in the rental business?

  • Investor · MI · Member since 2019 · 112 posts · 221 votes
    6y

    @Taylor L.  

    @Julie McCoy @Edward Seid @Account Closed  

    @Josh Walker @Brian G. @Michael Haas @cj m @Sean Mcevoy @Shiloh Lundahl 

    @whitney hutten @jonathan R McLaughlin  (I have no idea why sometimes I can't tag people??) 

    THANK YOU everyone for your advice! Funny, I thought everyone was going to tell me to hold onto it, so this has been really interesting. We have NO plans to move back to Seattle. We are from Michigan and lived in Seattle for 11 years and are now back home with our family.

    We actually do have a 100K HELOC ready to use to BRRRR and flip and are looking at a handful of homes today. This has given me so much to think about!

  • Warsaw, IN · Member since 2017 · 229 posts · 270 votes
    6y

    @Nikki Closser what @cj m said: I’d sell out of Seattle. As a Midwest investor, it seems as though Seattle was the epicenter of the rent strike movement to me.

    Good luck!

  • Real Estate Attorney and Investor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2011 · 23 posts · 15 votes
    6y

    @Nikki Closser

    I’ve bought several deals over the years from investors that did fine when they were local but saw their properties go down hill fast for a variety of reasons (bad managers, lost touch with local market, etc.) after they moved out of state. It’s not easy to manage from across the country.

    I would sell the WA property and 1031 into other investment deals in the best market near you that you can actively manage and work to become an expert in. Good luck!

  • Adam SchneiderPro Member
    Lender · Raleigh, NC · Member since 2012 · 955 posts · 639 votes
    6y

    @Nikki Closser -- if you are looking to make a decision based on votes of those responding...put me in the camp of keeping it as a STR and enjoy future appreciations. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, and I think the STR market will be stronger than ever if it's in the right spot.

  • Basit SiddiqiBusiness Member
    Accountant · New York, NY · Member since 2015 · 8k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    6y

    @Nikki Closser

    The window to do the section 121 exclusion can be a small window. I would take it if you had the opportunity.

  • Rental Property Investor · RVA · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Nikki Closser:

    @Taylor L.  

    @Julie McCoy @Edward Seid @Account Closed  

    @Josh Walker @Brian G. @Michael Haas @cj m @Sean Mcevoy @Shiloh Lundahl 

    @whitney hutten @jonathan R McLaughlin  (I have no idea why sometimes I can't tag people??) 

    THANK YOU everyone for your advice! Funny, I thought everyone was going to tell me to hold onto it, so this has been really interesting. We have NO plans to move back to Seattle. We are from Michigan and lived in Seattle for 11 years and are now back home with our family.

    We actually do have a 100K HELOC ready to use to BRRRR and flip and are looking at a handful of homes today. This has given me so much to think about!

    The tag feature can be a little finnicky sometimes. We're generally fans of get-up-and-go here in the BP community so you're a good fit here! Go for it!

  • Member since 2019 · 9 posts · 12 votes
    6y

    We have properties that are only two hours away and cannot find PMs we can depend on. Happy to take our money but hate to work. I would not keep a rental property in another state. 

  • Rental Property Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2017 · 60 posts · 20 votes
    6y

    Sell while you can. Appreciation at $0 cash flow is a losing game. Plus, if Seattle keeps going downhill you may get stuck as a seller. 

  • Real Estate Agent · Calabasas, CA · Member since 2020 · 8 posts · 1 vote
    6y

    I agree long term rentals are not always ideal in another state, having had the experiences to prove it numerous times over a decade, but they can still make good money.  In your case, I would prefer to sell taking advantage of the capital gains exemption and bring a wider portfolio geographically closer with more diversification.

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