should i purchase my primary residence in Austin now?

Question

background: currently live in bay area, my wife and i decided to move to Austin early next year. we currently own our house in bay area, and the plan was: find a house in Austin for less than 500k Q1'21, move, and if the market is still good, list the current bay area home for sell in March/April, and use the capital to purchase more investment properties in Texas. if the market is down, keep the bay area home for rental until market recovers.

Last week we find a place we really like, meet all the criteria we listed, but it is 2 months ahead of schedule, if it is normal year we won't think it's a big deal, but there are too many uncertainties this year:

1. given the uncertainties on the election, will this impact the stock market and house market? We worried about buying high and selling low

2. given the uncertainties on the covid-19, worried about mortgage forbearance expired cause house market downturn

3. because of above uncertainties, we felt maybe we should hold the cash longer and make decisions once we know how things pan out

Would love to hear your thoughts on this

thanks

Povilas Smith · Answer

- it is holiday season, so i prefer to wait until at least Feb to sell my bay area home, at least in normal years that would make more sense. we will be covered in the homestead exclusion. if something goes wrong in the bay area market, we will hold it for rental until it recovers. if something goes wrong in Austin home, we will just live there. If i have to hold both places, then i don't have cash for investment if market downturn. the austin home we plan to stay long term for 8 years at least.

Povilas Smith · Answer

thanks Ujwal. very good point. appreciated your inputs. we are buying Austin for long term.

so many of my friends are telling me: 1. long term wise austin market is strong 2. unemployment rate in austin is actually relatively low (6%) compared with rest of the country means it will be less foreclosure if something went wrong in the market. 3. no matter which party in the white house, stimulus plan will continue come out, print more money and have more inflation means home price will continue go up 4, if there will be another round of lock down, it actually drive the home price even higher

Dan Burstain · Answer

The most prices in Austin have ever fallen is 2.9%, in its history.  Prices fell here just 1.9% during the housing crisis!  I think the time to buy in Austin is now and that statement has been true for 40 years and will continue to be true, in my opinion, for another 40.  We have a huge government and university job base that keeps us out of any big dips.  Can't say the same for most cities across the country and even in Texas.  The inventory here in Austin is extremely low so if you see something available that you like, grab it.

Jordan Moorhead · Answer

@Povilas Smith I would sell the bay area house now. If anything happens coastal markets are hit the hardest. I'm still trying to buy more in Austin personally but I'd certainly sell your bay area home now and hold the cash. If you sell the bay area home now would the gains be covered in the homestead exclusion? Everyone in Austin is drunk on Austin right now and is going to tell you to buy. I don't disagree but would examine your hold period and strategy. If something goes wrong do you have to sell? I buy with a minimum 10 year hold in mind, I think Austin will be 50% larger and more in demand in 10 years personally so I'll continue to buy anything that makes sense.

Ujwal Velagapudi · Answer

Seems all of the agents are saying to buy now :)

I personally would consider holding for a bit. I'm in a very similar boat, looking to be in Austin in Q1, but in Socal for now. To me, what it comes down to is not the couple bucks I could save, hedge against, make, etc. but am I making a sound decision, and not being rushed into anything during a very uncertain period? RE is very illiquid, and even though I don't think TX/Austin RE would be greatly impacted, I think there is less risk in holding for a few months and following the timeline that you've set out for your family.

As of now, planning to spend a few months in the city in an Airbnb, physically see different properties, feel out the city, and pull the trigger whenever something comes up.

Also, not sure if this is an option, but I would considering selling the Bay area home with a clause in there asking for a 60-90 day move out period. So at least you've cashed out of your place when the market is still fairly strong, even in the Bay.

Aaron Gordy · Answer

Its a good hedge

Neil Narayan · Answer

At the rate homes are appreciating it doesn't make sense to wait. Even if there is a blip after teh election in the long term the RE Market trajectory in Austin is quite positive and it will even out.

Ryan Kelly · Answer

@Povilas Smith You need to live somewhere, so the question may be "Do you want to risk losing money on a more expensive home in the Bay Area, or a less expensive home in the Austin area?" The market could just as easily go up or down in 2021, so I would not spend too much effort trying to time the market or predict the future. Ask yourself, is the Austin purchase a long-term decision? If so, you can weather any short-term challenges in the market.

Danny Webber · Answer

I would do it

should i purchase my primary residence in Austin now?

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