Battle of the Inflation VS Return Math

Battle of the Inflation VS Return Math

Investor · Member since 2018 · 260 posts · 74 votes

I recently listened to a podcast interview with a very accomplished and intelligent syndicator. He said that the annual return you anticipate for your investors needs to be at least equal to the rate of inflation in order to match/beat inflation.

For example, if inflation were 10% per year and his return structure had only a preferred return with no split, his argument would be that the pref needs to be at least 10% in order to match or beat inflation.

I question if this is a true statement.

Example: If inflation for example is 10% per year, and I have $1M in the bank, that money has buying power of $900k at the end of the year after being inflated away. 

Instead, if I invest the $1M in a real estate investment, I assume that the value of the property increases roughly with the rate of inflation. 

So for example, if I sold the property after one year, my $1M should have appreciated to $1.1M from inflation, so I'm receiving back $1.1M at least which now has buying power of $1M after inflation. 

I've preserved my capital by simply investing in real estate. I don't need any return to protect my capital from inflation. 

And for that matter, any return above 0% would mean I'm "beating inflation". 

Even moreso (thanks Hunter for this point), if I use leverage and say only put $300k down for this million dollar purchase, I've made $100k on my $300k which 3x beats inflation.

Even if the appreciation rate of the property doesn't trend perfectly with inflation, it still should be close and the point remains the same. 

Thoughts? 

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Bruce WoodruffPro Member
Contractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Kim Hopkins:

Example: If inflation for example is 10% per year, and I have $1M in the bank, that money has buying power of $900k at the end of the year after being inflated away. 

Instead, if I invest the $1M in a real estate investment, I assume that the value of the property increases roughly with the rate of inflation. 

First, none of these guys has a clue what they're talking about...always remember that.

Second, the bolded above is where you are making a big mistake. We are in a high inflation period right now and home prices are dropping pretty much everwhere.

I'm not saying I disagree with your premise that this guy is not exactly right in his assertion, but he does have a point....

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  • Drew SygitBusiness Member
    Property Manager · Royal Oak, MI · Member since 2012 · 12k+ posts · 9k+ votes
    3y

    @Kim Hopkins in a perfect world what they said is true.

    On the otherhand, read an online article last week about the "best" money manager that ONLY lost 4% this year, compated to average losses much higher than that.

    So, losses trump inflation concerns.

  • Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    3y
    I didn't read all of the replies, but the real rate of return is easy to calculate:

    https://www.carboncollective.c....

    Real return = ((1 + nominal rate) / (1 + inflation rate)) - 1

    This is NOT the same as simple math that most people use; especially when there are compounding effects over time that are exacerbated with high portions of your real purchasing power being inflated out of existence with drunken-sailor-like fiscal policy.  

  • Rental Property Investor · East Wenatchee, WA · Member since 2014 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Mike Dymski:

    2 additional items:

    1 - The leverage scenario has negative cash flow if the interest rate is higher than the cap rate.  

     Exactly.

    Cap rate = 1/2 debt rate = poor investment regardless of inflation rate.

    Then bloat it with fees?  Hard pass. 

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