Self Storage- Debt or No Debt???? Personal Economic Planning
Each of us have our own Crystal Ball and outlooks, so not wanting to discuss which is the best or right. My crystal ball has been wrong the last 4 years and I understand why. My crystal ball says the following and I am taking actions towards that.
A. Stock market will crash 70%.
B. Interest rates and inflation will go double digit to 15%.
C. US dollar will devalue in the next 10 years from a Value of $1 down to $.20.
D. US won't recover for 20 years, till Manufacturing Re-shores. Luckily the US to me is the best and safest economy to recover in the world.
E. Property Insurance and Property Taxes will inflate at the above rates also to keep up with Coverage and Services.
Like all outlooks, Direction, Timing and Magnitude I will be wrong on all of them, but to what degree; but above are what I perceive and are planning for. With that said, please help me poke holes or challenge the following tactics, or note potential options. Self-Storage represents about 25% of our overall Wealth. We only have Debt on our Self Storage locations. Our other assets are split about 15% across 5 other asset classes, thus not worried if Self Storage unto itself fails.
Options:
We have 4 locations. Sell enough locations to pay down the overall Debt.
Refinance with SBA to get longer amort periods with no Balloon periods. 20 to 25 years with SBA; 10/5/5 with Local Participating bank.
Refinance with local lenders with 20/25 amort period, with 5/7 year balloon periods.
Pay down debt with other Assets.
Sale all locations.
??????- Your Input
Self Storage:
Recognize most BP are not familiar with the business/risk side of Self Storage. Self Storage is a level Cash cow once you reach occupancy 70% or higher. All of ours are 99% or one rising to 93% and we are adding next month to that location. Self-storage does best in either a Bad or Good economy. The worst economy for Self-Storage is a Level one. Bad- people are downsizing and moving. Good- upsizing and moving. Level- less population churn. Rental rates are below Housing, Car rental, etc, thus closing their storage unit is further down the food chain, plus it helps them keep their things (Hope).
Customer base- we use a ratio of 6 storage unit whether 10/15/20 size per 100 people, not households. Our hometown has the highest I have seen anywhere in the US at 13 per 100 people. It's a specific situation in our Market. With that said, even if your 6 people move out, there are another 94 that will at some point possibly be your customer.
General Industry understanding- Self Storage is always good in a Bad Economy:
The above statement is true in a Normal Bad economy over a Normal recovery period. Where the above statement fails is if the Outlook I picture above occurs. There comes a point where both renters will stop paying and future renters will store in place. Also, both Insurance and Property Tax will inflate to a point that challenges owning any business.
Positive- if we can keep cashflowing expenses and P/I, our debt will be paid back in lower Dollar values, "Making" us money versus being in Cash. But we have to lock down the Interest terms and be able to handle inflation in Insurance and Property Taxes.
Negative- We can't cash flow expense increase and P/I. Then we have to be able to Access Nominal dollars from our other Assets to pay. Sounds simple, but if our Stocks went down 70%, if our other assets taking a heavy loss, we lose. We could keep Cash or Cash equivalents on hand to cover this situation, but they will have lost 90% of their value based on my outlook.
Again, not looking for why my outlook is wrong and yours is right. All about your financial resources, your risk management and your outlook.
With the above noted, what positions have you taken along these lines, or would you recommend I take a look at?
Thanks.
It's your money, your always Right, even if your wrong.