Real Estate Investor · the villages, FL · Member since 2008 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
New figures are out. Many have been warning of further drops in values and PATIENCE will be a virtue in acquistions if you wait. Well, we now have the worst month recorded in the last 5 years... This can't be good for the economy, but should be great for buyers a year or so for now. When you add the drops occurring in rents in many areas, vacancies increasing and time required to rent lengthening, could be a perfect storm. Not sure if that'll be good or bad.
Sitting at JFK and bored. Overnight flight to Cairo later. No lockers here to leave luggage, and I don't want to lug 4 bags to sightsee! Reading lots of news and almost all is bad. Unemployment up, thousands stranded in UK and Scandanavia dur to Iceland volcanic ash. Oh well, just eat again and again. I won't miss anything if I wait awhile to buy more RE. Have a great weekend . Rich
Developer · Prior Lake, MN · Member since 2010 · 118 posts · 46 votes
16y
Chart showing housing prices/median income. This is stunning!
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/us-existing-house-price-median-family-income/
Looking at this chart you'd think we have a long way to go to reach bottom, however I think low interest rates are keeping things up.
A question that I do not hear asked very often is "What happens when interest rates rise over a long period of time?" We just benefited from 20 yrs of interest rate declines until they couldn't go any lower (i.e. now is as low as they'll go).
Is it possible that rates could rise over a long period of time? Would that not erode real estate values? That is my biggest concern with buy and hold. The saving grace may be that the government needs inflation and low interest rates and they do control the printing presses.
It's down to the wire in the Twin Cities housing market for consumers to
take advantage of the tax credits, which are set to expire Friday, April
30. With that looming deadline, sellers are far more active than buyers
right now.
For the week ending April 17, there were 2,353 new listings added, a
21.9 percent increase vs. the same week last year. Over the last three
months, there have been almost 4,000 more new listings than there
were during the same period last year.
Pending sales are also growing but not at the same breakneck pace.
The 1,103 purchase agreements for the most recent reporting week
were just 1.8 percent higher than a year ago. A heavy increase in new
listings compared with a marginal increase in pending sales has led to a
growth in inventory; total active listings are up 3.0 percent over last
year.
So what happens after the April 30 deadline? Since the tax credit
deadline has shifted many buyers forward a few months in their normal
cycle, we expect a slower summer selling season.
Real Estate Investor · Springfield, MA · Member since 2010 · 49 posts · 10 votes
16y
I have seen quite a few newer listings in my area whether Realtor or FSBO.
With the tax credit expiring tomorrow, it will get VERY interesting...there was quite a bit of activity this week for people looking; the question is will they continue to look/buy after...or did they buy.
Some regions in the state here have seen 5-6 months of steady increases (marginal, but increases nonetheless) after some decreases which strongly suggest a double-dip is now imminent. My guess is not in May after credit expiration, but the summer will see quite a slow one overall and maybe into the fall unless the tax credit/something similar is revived again (elections, anyone?)
Plenty of shadow inventory; I know because I see it as is in my inspections...and already lost a few more places where the owners just up and moved out quickly. Whether or not they plan on backtracking and selling, filing BK, etc. remains to be seen, but they were definitely in a delinquency/struggle for quite some time!
Lots more also with notices to foreclose from some months back still lagging. If they are vacant to begin with, lenders can just take their time on those.
Oh and a ton, a TON of listings EASILY overpriced to assessed value...probably a good 15-20% of homeowners now in the Springfield metro area are maxed out/underwater (last year a study supposedly said 1 in 10...gotta be higher then that!)
I thought 3-5 years minimum on all of this in my area...now I'm thinking more in the 5-7 year realm instead!