Real Estate Investor · the villages, FL · Member since 2008 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
New figures are out. Many have been warning of further drops in values and PATIENCE will be a virtue in acquistions if you wait. Well, we now have the worst month recorded in the last 5 years... This can't be good for the economy, but should be great for buyers a year or so for now. When you add the drops occurring in rents in many areas, vacancies increasing and time required to rent lengthening, could be a perfect storm. Not sure if that'll be good or bad.
Sitting at JFK and bored. Overnight flight to Cairo later. No lockers here to leave luggage, and I don't want to lug 4 bags to sightsee! Reading lots of news and almost all is bad. Unemployment up, thousands stranded in UK and Scandanavia dur to Iceland volcanic ash. Oh well, just eat again and again. I won't miss anything if I wait awhile to buy more RE. Have a great weekend . Rich
Real Estate Investor · the villages, FL · Member since 2008 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
16y
James- I agree with you. This mess could last a lot longer. Not knowing what the commercial problems will cause, as well as new financing rules. I sold a house in my subdivision in TX, and supposedly a new "law" requires the appraiser to be a 3rd party. House sold for 139K. Appraisal came in at 141.5K. THEN, by law, the appraisal had to go to another 3rd party for review. Stayed at 141.5. Anyone else running into this new stuff? Rich
p.s. Thanks to those replies to the bigboi post. No big deal. Free country.
Rental Property Investor · Baltimore, MD · Member since 2009 · 624 posts · 559 votes
16y
OH... and Rich, you are so right... we are in for a bumpy ride as the Government just is not capable of plugging all of the leaks in our economic damn.
At some point in time market forces have got be unleased to make the needed corrections so that things will return to some level of normal... whatever that may be... sooner then later.
In the mean there are going to be some killer deals out there for those savvy enough to recognize them and take the needed action.
Developer · Prior Lake, MN · Member since 2010 · 118 posts · 46 votes
16y
Rich,
Keep the posts coming! Travel is a big part of your life, so it is obviously going to come through on your posts.
I love reading about all the places you've been, it gives me ideas on where I'm going next.
Back to the topic at hand. In Minneapolis, SFH inventory is on the rise for the first time in 2 years. The bounce started in early January and is continuing to trend up. The surprising thing is that this is happening even before the tax credit expires.
I am starting to see "shadow" inventory come out of the woodwork through re-listings and more REOs hiting the market. I just heard 3 different radio commercials yesterday advertising, "Rent your house now and wait for a better time to sell!" Many of these houses have already been rentals for 1-2 years. This is driving vacancies up and rental rates down. It is only a matter of time before all of these negative cash flow rentals get put back on the market for sale. Prices aren't going to go back up 30% over night and "save" everyone.
At the same time, we've just exhausted most first-time homebuyers and mortgage rates are creeping up. I just don't see a lot of reason for an increase in demand after April. Middle of this year looks like it will be a great time to buy. Just waiting for the media to catch up with reality.
Real Estate Investor · the villages, FL · Member since 2008 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
16y
Jaden,
It sounds like perfect storm in a negative way. Rents down, vacancies up and more inventory hitting the market, with many buyers having already bought. As others have said, there will be great buying opportunities out there. Weren't you looking at Mexico?
Steve- thanks for posting the rules. many don't read them and come on here with guns blazing. I'm too old and too experienced to get excited about it.
Travel is a HUGE part of my life and I appreciate the suggestions I receive about different areas and the many meals I've shared in U.S areas I visit with BP members. Egypt is a first time visit and will be interesting. Thanks to Josh for restaurant suggestion here in NY.
Vegas next month. I'm up for a meal with BP members there. Norway and Germany in June and hope to share time with UWE from BP while in a port in Germany. Utah and Ft Lauderdale in July and Galapogos in August. I just had to post these future dates for big boi. Maybe he is in one of those areas and we can meet... Rich at JFK.
Real Estate Agent · Grand Junction, CO · Member since 2008 · 68 posts · 35 votes
16y
It will be interesting to see what happens after April to see what effect the Homebuyers credit had or what the gov will do (leave alone, come up with something...).
If it did leave few buyers left (as most would have bought to get the credit) and interest rates move up some, coupled with not many jobs being created, it could make for an interesting 2010 (well not so interesting if you are a Seller).
Cairo is fun. We actually liked the lesser known pyramids outside of town (step pyramid) as do not have the amount of tourists that the Great Pyramids do.
Dahab out on the Sinai Peninsula was great. We don't dive but if you do and make it there, ask about the Blue Hole.
Otherwise, when around the pyramids and other places, get ready to say
"la shokran" a lot.
Real Estate Investor · the villages, FL · Member since 2008 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
16y
Thanks for the tip on pyramids out of town. We snorkel , but too old to dive. Did the Great Barrier Reef in dec. I too, think the future is going to be a wild ride. Rich
Real Estate Agent · Grand Junction, CO · Member since 2008 · 68 posts · 35 votes
16y
You can hire a taxi for a day, usually a few hanging outside of your hotel. Ask for price, bargain...they can take you to some of the other places. The one we liked (probably as not many people there and was nice to wander around without being hit up to buy a postcard every few minutes) was
step pyramid of djoser.
I remember in a previous post you had invested in Casa Grande, AZ. My uncle was just talking about this place (just for a vacation home) as a friend told him prices were down.
Any thoughts on Casa Grande (if you have kept track of real estate there) more from a perspective of a 2nd home rather than an investment property?
Real Estate Consultant · yucaipa, CA · Member since 2008 · 233 posts · 109 votes
16y
Rich,
If I didn't know better, I would be thinking that you read my blog posts. Looming Double Bubble parts 1-2-3. The hand writing is all over the wall on this one. Enjoy your trip! Arthur Fromer would be proud!! Did I spell that right??
Real Estate Investor · the villages, FL · Member since 2008 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
16y
Matt- at the risk of being called names,,,,,,I still own a Prk Model in Palm Creek Golf and RV in Casa grande. On the 18th green. It is wonderful, but I've just rented it out for the winters last 5 years. A great spot. Look it up. I sold other properties when I saw the idiocy.
Matt- All brilliant minds think alike. I've also posted on the Perfect Storm coming. I think Frommer has 2 ms, but who cares. 1 more hour to board the flight. Rich
Developer · Prior Lake, MN · Member since 2010 · 118 posts · 46 votes
16y
Rich, I am looking at Mexico and other Central American countries (Panama, Nicaragua) for a vacation rental that we can visit a couple times a year. It's a bit out of my comfort zone still, so it will be a long research process before I pull the trigger on something.
It seems that the Central American market has not been clobbered as much as the states due to the non-existence of financing for vacation properties down there. It's amazing how much cash can stabilize a market.
Still keeping my eyes open for deals down there, but I think the ole' USA is the place to be piling into for the next 12 months
Any ideas why the stock market is on such a tear with unemployment and foreclosures on the rise? Quite the leading indicator I guess.
Real Estate Agent · Grand Junction, CO · Member since 2008 · 68 posts · 35 votes
16y
Been looking into Panama as well (more for the fun of it rather than anything too serious). Although I become more serious the colder it gets outside.
I like what I have read so far. The Panama Canal Expansion Project seems like it should bring more revenue into the country and be a good revenue source in the future. Boquete looks great but seems like prices have taken off with other ex pats finding the place.
Other countries that seem to pop up are Brazil (keep hearing about Fortaleza area) and Ecuador. Although, seems like Ecuador may not be as stable. Have heard some good things about Urugauy as well.
Thank god summer is almost here (I live in ski town in Colorado) or maybe Panama would be a much more realistic possibility for me ;-}
Good luck on your search. Is sure fun to look at the pics.
Real Estate Consultant · Lansing, MI · Member since 2010 · 117 posts · 32 votes
16y
In order to have a double dip there had to have been some sort of rise. We haven't had a rise just a period when there were fewer foreclosures. What we had was just a slower rate of decline. This issue really wont' begin to work its way out until the employment and wage picture improves.
Real Estate Investor · the villages, FL · Member since 2008 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
16y
Carlton- mostly accurate. However, there have been certain areas that have stabilized and shown a small increase. And the # of foreclosures last month (or quarter) was the highest period in the last 5 years. That sounds like a dip to me over where we thought we were. Rich, on the Red Sea.
Rich,
Concerning your hanging around JFK and couldn't find a place to store your luggage.
In the terminals at JFK, you can store your luggage in the "arrival" area, NOT the departure area.
Real Estate Investor · the villages, FL · Member since 2008 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
16y
Ray- Now you tell me! We were in the international terminal and they told us NO lockers, and said nothing about arrivals area! We sat there for 9 hours. Oh well, now in a gorgeous new resort in Hgrda on the Red Sea. Here for another day and then on to sightseeing and a 4 day cruise on the Nile.
I've been really surprised with Egypt. Lots of new resorts and Russians visiting. The locals tell us that the Russian Mob uses Egypt for laundering their money. Lots of Russian stores etc. Don't know if accurate, but someone is spending LOTS of money here. The Iberotel Aquamarine would be an ok place to vacation with your family. Very nice gigantic pools , 5 waterslides and other amenities. Rich
p.s. Seems to be a lot of sandy real estate......
Rental Property Investor · St. Louis, MO · Member since 2008 · 189 posts · 75 votes
16y
Hey Rich,
I don't think your on vacation, my guess is you have grown bored with SFHs and multis and jumped into pyramid buying. Better snag a few before the Russians get them all.
Centennial, CO · Member since 2009 · 758 posts · 251 votes
16y
Rich, you consistently provide the topic for spirited interaction. I agree with James - LONGGG way to go. Highest foreclosure spike in five years - although much of it is backwash from failed loan modifications. 1 Million homeowners in some stage of foreclosure and a whopping 7 Million now delinquent at least 30 days. That is a KEY number, especially because it keeps rising - now at 14% of outstanding mortgages. 14% delinquency is a number not imaginable to lenders prior to now. Without employment increases this number will continue to rise. Not in this cake mix is some fallout related to commercial. The icing I believe will be massive Option ARM defaults accelerating toward the end of this year and reaching very large numbers by the beginning of 2012. IMHO.
Developer · Prior Lake, MN · Member since 2010 · 118 posts · 46 votes
16y
Let's get some data up here to liven the discussion. I've been talking to realtors for months now about all the factors leading up to a double-dip and all I can get out of them is "I don't have a crystal ball". They live and breathe this stuff every day and don't seem to have an opinion of the future.
My opinion aligns closely with Ted's and Rich's, so here's some hard data (link at the bottom). Take a look and let me know what you see. I may be skewing this to my own interests (cheaper and more available RE).
The St. Paul, MN (Minneapolis) Association of Realtors publishes fantastic research data on a weekly basis giving basic barometers of what the market is doing (new listings, pendings, inventory, DOM, etc.). I've been seeing an increase in active listings since early January (up 30% in 3 months, while pending sales are at similar levels from last year. Last week, new listings were 47.9% higher than last year, while pending sales were only 3.6% higher. The active listings inventory had been falling for about 12 months. Inventory reached an inflection point in January, has been increasing ever since and just crossed back over the inventory level at this time last year. Inventory appears to be headed sharply higher.
This report details statistics for the week ending April 10th. Charts and stats can be read many different ways. Take a look and let us know what you think the market is doing. If you have similar data about your market, post it here so that we can all get a better feel for what is really going on here.
http://www.spaar.com/_uls/resources/Weekly_Market_Activity_Repo_16.pdf
Real Estate Investor · the villages, FL · Member since 2008 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
16y
Jaden,
Thanks for the hard facts, although many on here don't allow that kind of argument! Info from other areas would also be helpful, as long as it is comparing same data- listings, sales etc.
Rental Property Investor · St. Louis, MO · Member since 2008 · 189 posts · 75 votes
16y
In mid 2008 the number of HUD homes currently on the market in my state (Missouri) was in the upper 500s and broke through the 600 level by end of 2008. We just surpassed 800 last month. And from my small farm area I can attest to the fact that HUD is not sitting on these - they are usually priced very competitively and sell before the first markdown at 30 days.