MARKET CRASH - Thoughts?

MARKET CRASH - Thoughts?

Miami, FL · Member since 2017 · 11 posts · 12 votes

Let me start off by saying that I am no means making an excuse to not invest in real estate. I am actually looking to make my first purchase (house-hacking) within the year. Here is what triggers me though:

My full-time job is in the Mortgage industry, and on a daily basis, I see home-buyers getting themselves into loans with little to no money down leaving them with barely any equity in the property. In my honest opinion, I believe that we are in a personal debt bubble (credit cards, student loans, car loans, etc) because of people over extending themselves credit wise. 
Let me show you an example:

Average Joe wants to buy a home for $200,000 putting 5% down:

His income Pre-Tax is $4,200 monthly ($50,400 annual)

The column in the picture on the left represents how mortgage companies qualify somebody for a conventional loan - in this case, Joe's max Debt-To-Income ratio is 46%. On the right however exemplifies Joe's real life monthly expenses vs his AFTER tax income leaving him with a Debt-To-Income ratio of 122%! (Sorry for the bad handwriting!)

If a market crash is upon us and home values see a major decline, my worries are that myself, along with many others are going to be underwater on their mortgages. Is now a bad time to buy? Or does if you find the right deal under market value, should you be safe?

I don't say this to scare anybody or drum up drama, I simply want to know others thoughts on buying in today's expensive market with little equity.

Cheers!

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Russell BrazilBusiness Member
Moderator
Real Estate Agent · Washington, D.C. · Member since 2012 · 17k+ posts · 30k+ votes
9y

“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” – Peter Lynch

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  • Real Estate Agent · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2016 · 5 posts · 2 votes
    9y

    I've also been very interested in this lately. Depending on the area of a listing I get offers with FHA buyers seeking sellers assist a lot. Looking at some of the buyer financials I am seeing buyers making 28k a year, with 2 jobs mind you, qualifying for 178k homes. These people are literally tether tottering the line of being able to afford their home. It's seems like people are just rolling the dice with illness, injury and job loss. I'm looking to get into buy and holds in the next year depending upon how my transition goes into another state but constantly wonder if I should just keep saving money and wait for the next bubble to burst to get the better deals.

  • Contractor · Grand Marais, MN · Member since 2016 · 249 posts · 417 votes
    9y

    Watch the movie The Big Short. Even people that are correct can be wrong for a long time. Tops happen when everyone decides there is no top. In hindsight, it seems crazy no one saw 2008 coming. Cashflow makes it all work. If you don't need appreciation for your numbers to work, don't worry about it.

  • New York City, NY · Member since 2017 · 1 post · 2 votes
    9y

    Hi.  Just joined.  My first post.  I am a 55 year old bankruptcy and wills/trusts lawyer that lives in Manhattan, and I bought my apartment at the bottom of the market.   I am not a real estate investor, but I own and have recently inherited property.  I am trying to decide what to do next investment-wise, and am glad I found this website.  

    I state my age, occupation, and hometown because I am sure it shaped my world view.  I am seeing signs of a downturn.  The luxury market in Manhattan has slowed, the prices are dropping, and the number of closed storefronts is increasing.  Bankruptcy filings just increased in March, after a long dip.  A family member that manages a $500m fund is personally raising cash to purchase after the correction.  In our market, the numbers make no sense.  That was how it was before the last dip.  I am sure it will be different, but from where I am standing, it smells like it's coming.... 

    With that said, I would and will still invest in real estate.  I would just be mindful of my ability to weather a correction.  

  • Brownstown, MI · Member since 2014 · 344 posts · 98 votes
    9y

    I'm watching for financial"engineering" to take place.   I haven't really seen much yet although credit bureaus are changing the way they score buyers (loosening) which will inflate scores.  That's one way to qualify more people with bad credit. 

  • Fort Campbell, KY · Member since 2017 · 35 posts · 5 votes
    9y

    Hello everybody, I'm new to BP, but from what I've read it appears that the majority of people state that if the market crashes you're ok if you're renting out your properties. My question is- how often to rental prices drop? I understand there is no risk if you have responsible, pay on time, long term tenants, but what about the "iffy tenants" in a market crash? How often would you have to lower the rent vs. how often do rents remain relatively unchanged? Thanks.

  • Levi T.Pro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Tucson AZ / Nice FR / Washington DC · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    Our economy has never crashed while we where looking in the rearview mirror at the last crash as we speed away from it as quickly as we can, it only crashes when we stop looking.

    I think with the 2008 crash, what we have stepped into is the age of the financed on demand economy of everything, why own when you can just rent everything? These are people who rents homes, rent furniture, make car payments, phone payments, college payments, credit card payments, and yes mortgage payments. They live in the edge of their credit ability. The system has turned generations that don't see home ownership as it once was. It's all just leased now of days. It's part of the uberfication of life. Why buy when you can just make payments for everything and enjoy more of what you never could afford if you tried to pay for it all with cold hard cash. Thus, they rack the payment plans up and get it all, the bank owns the houses anyways, and there's a new iphone coming out in 12 months. It starts to make since, so now we are all paying it forwards with first-time buyers getting seller subsidies from the sellers, and everything on credit.

    Just about everywhere I look the market is up, service businesses are booked out months in advance, hiring like crazy. People who have no business becoming investors, want to be investors... frankly I think this round is just getting started. Interest rates are cheep, and if Trump delivers the tax cut, well... that'll be like tossing a gas can into a bonfire, it's going to explode.

    I'm holding my feet to the fire and making deals on the same terms I had 5 years ago. I'm not making as many deals as I was making back then, or even 6 months ago, but there are good deals to be had. Saving cash, paying down, waiting for the reset. That's what it's about.

    You will notice that the cycle follows home prices vs rents. First home prices go up to the point it makes more since to rent than own, over time rents go up, and one day it make more since to own than rent.. Around these parts, it's starting to make more since to own than rent. I suspect over the next few years they will keep pushing them prices up till one day someone decides it's better to rent again, then slowly rents will start going up as the demand follows. Once they get sick of that, they will turn their eye towards owning again... It happens as each generation cycling through the stages of life, renting, owning, moving, etc.

  • Fort Campbell, KY · Member since 2017 · 35 posts · 5 votes
    9y

    Thank you for the response @Levi T. 

  • Levi T.Pro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Tucson AZ / Nice FR / Washington DC · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Alisha Burgfeld:

    Hello everybody, I'm new to BP, but from what I've read it appears that the majority of people state that if the market crashes you're ok if you're renting out your properties. My question is- how often to rental prices drop? I understand there is no risk if you have responsible, pay on time, long term tenants, but what about the "iffy tenants" in a market crash? How often would you have to lower the rent vs. how often do rents remain relatively unchanged? Thanks.

    Thanks. To my knowledge, we have never seen rents move more than 5% past it low season rates. Over all rents hold true, as the scale of renters move with the earnings in the economy.

    Less wealth means people downsize, more means people that  where not renting start to rent. 

    In the ghettos or war zones, one will always be kicking doors, especially when the chips are down, and a lot of times when it's up. Why it's important to try and find properties in the handyman part of town, it will always have a good renter. Good luck!

  • Rental Property Investor · Olympia · Member since 2008 · 17 posts · 8 votes
    9y
    I think prices will Plateau, cool, and maybe go down a little bit, but there is a real inventory problem on the west coast, especially with starter homes. So I don't think a real crash is coming anytime soon. Plus so much of the inventory is own by landlords that pay their bills. That is my take anyway.
  • Investor · Puyallup, WA · Member since 2017 · 12 posts · 13 votes
    9y

    Michael Kimmel, you are correct, the starter home inventory problem is real... many builders choose the bigger profits that come with selling luxury homes... in our area there are several new developments billed out as "affordable luxury" that start at $450,000.  

  • Real Estate Broker · Champaign, IL · Member since 2017 · 49 posts · 19 votes
    9y

    Looks like this conversation's wrapped up. Just thought I'd drop in and leave a good 'ol quote from the Oracle of Omaha himself...

    “Our favorite holding period is forever.” :)

  • Fort Campbell, KY · Member since 2017 · 35 posts · 5 votes
    9y

    Haha thanks for the quote @Chang Hee Lee. I don't think starter homes are the issue for my area- Clarksville, TN. We do have a lot of renters though and they stay full because of Fort Campbell. Just worried about increased vacancy or rents dropping during the vacancy time that would potentially happen during a Crash.

  • Boise, ID · Member since 2017 · 2 posts · 2 votes
    9y

    Hi Alisha.

    If the majority of your renters in this town are military folks, you'll be fine over the next 4 years (at least). The military will always have money and with a Republican majority in office, that money, spend and presence will likely only increase.

  • Russell BrazilBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Agent · Washington, D.C. · Member since 2012 · 17k+ posts · 30k+ votes
    6y

    Still waiting on that market crash 3+ years later

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