Real Estate Agent · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2016 · 7 posts · 6 votes
I'm just curious where you think this is going...if tenants aren't paying their rent...and landlords aren't going to pay their mortgage...are we going to see opportunities to purchase investment properties in the coming months? But...in this environment...where do you invest? If tenants aren't paying, why would the situation suddenly improve for me once I purchased a distressed property.
Investor/Agent/Entrepreneur · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 464 posts · 564 votes
6y
I wish I had a crystal ball, but the best thing I've got is what I see going on in the market and my gut. If congress doesn't come to terms this week, it won't be till early Sept. till they reconvene and renegotiate. This would leave the unemployment and eviction moratorium deadlines at the end of last week. So I think we'll start to see the ripple effect starting September's rents (if y'all haven't already). Government can assist to keep things afloat for longer, but I don't see how long they can possibly keep doing it. But I think the house of cards will be falling once they stop funding, and once the ramifications of the trillions catches up.
I still think real estate will be impacted much later, for the most part. Local courts have been pushing out the eviction filing dates, and with the onslaught of new cases they're bound to see, I think it'll be many months before cases get resolved. Especially with limited staff at most of these courts. As for banks, I am not sure on this front, but I don't think they'll be holding out too long unless they themselves get more federal aid. I don't think real estate as a whole will really start to see the impact until Q1 2021 and into 2022.
Like you said the situation won't change as soon as you buy it. I think safer bets would be if the rental you buy is occupied with folks that have stable jobs (and throughout the last few months), a property with already value add opportunities, below market value, etc. Personally, I am keeping an eye on listings and scouting around to find anything good off market, but I do not actually think I will make a purchase until at least mid-2021 or if at least a few of the many uncertain variables in the market are somehow magically gone.
Professional · Canton, MI · Member since 2016 · 296 posts · 230 votes
6y
I'm not so sure there will be a dip in prices next year. At worst, a flattening. The people being hurt the most by coronavirus are service workers, and I'd bet homeownership rates among that group are a lot lower than folks with steadier white-collar jobs. I'm hearing of some job-shedding by larger white-collar employers, but anecdotally it doesn't seem to be really bad yet (like it is for service jobs). Seems like with demand where it is, even if there is a chunk of foreclosure activity that occurs in the next 6 months, the market demand is high enough to absorb it without dragging prices significantly.
Then again, I have zero statistics to back up any of what I just said!