Life Altering Financial Desicions to Make!!!!.....

Life Altering Financial Desicions to Make!!!!.....

Member since 2008 · 452 posts · 18 votes

I can't believe all these interesting things that seem to be coming up....

But this is the biggest of all...

So let me know what you're thoughts are on this...

Something major has come up. I have a deal looming on the horizon. It's for 2 very large buildings totaling 105 units. The seller has agreed to sell me the two verbally and also in a letter. But they can't give me a signed contract because they're in the process of buying this big portfolio of buildings. And only once their done can they sign a contract on the two they've agreed to sell me.

The only way I can finance that deal which will cost $660k is by selling a building I have here in the city. It's been up for sale since January. And so far I've come pretty close to selling but I have not been successful with it yet. I have two offers I'm negotiating with right now but nothing solid yet.

So the other day here's what happened...

The only reason someone would buy this building here in my city or any building in my city is to condo convert it. That's the big thing that's going on here. So to try and make the information on my website more informative and attractive I decided to run all the numbers on the condo conversion and add them to my site to show the prospective buyer what kind of profit they would make after paying my price and then doing the conversion.

Well after doing the numbers I was rather in shock!!! Because what happened was that I conservatively calculated that after the conversion whomever owns the building will stand to make $3.4m gross profit. I had no clue that's how much profit I was actually leaving on the table.

And so if I was to just forget about those two buildings I was planning on buying which had the 105 units, I could instead do the condo conversion myself. And after all expenses and mortgage payout I'd be left with around $2.6m roughly. The only draw back is going that route could take as long as 2 years to finally see all that money in.

So what should I do:

A) Sell out the building for around $1.65m now which would only net me about $900k and use that to buy those two buildings that I don't even have a signed contract on, other than a verbal. But if it did go through I'd have my funds reinvested in a matter of 6 months. I'd have great cash flow coming in and no more deals to have to do or worry about.

or

B) I could just forget those two buildings that I've fallen in love with and just do that condo conversion myself, which will net me about $2.6m. That's if the city approves it, and that's if prices continue to rise at the pace they have been. And that's only after I can sell them all off sometime in the summer of 2008. At which point I'd still have to find something new to purchase to reinvest for cash flow.

To most the condo conversion looks way better obviously, but I guess my only concern is that I'd lose those two nice buildings, and also I'd have to wait as long as two years to finally cash out. It's kind of a catch 22. I am leaning toward the condo conversion simply because I have no signed offer on those two buildings, so in some respect that's mere speculation on whether or not that company will actually follow through on their word and sell them to me. But there's also a risk that I may not get city approval on my building, making it worth a lot less if I then intended to try selling, as buyers only paying the top dollars for buildings which they can convert in my city.

I guess when you do the math the condo conversion makes far more financial sense. But I don't know.

So what would you do if you were me, and why?

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Real Estate Investor · OH · Member since 2008 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
19y

Vacman,

R2d2 claims that the appreciation rate in his area is 50%! That can not continue for long.

Also, where did you find that 6.3% appreciation rate?

Mike

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  • Real Estate Investor · OH · Member since 2008 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    19y

    r2d2,

    If you are asking a serious question, then here is what I would do. I would only do deals that will generate short term profits. The tremendous appreciation in your area can NOT continue and will come to a screeching halt. When that happens, there is always an oversupply of housing units and it will literally take years for this inventory to move. A huge number of investors will go broke.

    Therefore, I would not do the condo conversion which could take 2 years to complete. I would sell your building and lock in your $900K profit. Then, I would only buy properties that will cash flow (even if rents decrease) and provide income for your future. Otherwise, the $900K equity that you currently have could easily evaporate and you'll be back to square one. You've made a killing in a wildly appreciating market - that's great! The real question is whether you can keep it when they market heads down (and it will soon)!

    Good Luck,

    Mike

  • Member since 2008 · 42 posts · 3 votes
    19y

    Some things to consider:

    If you aren't sure whether the city will approve the condo conversion, don't you think any buyer will require the due diligence to determine whether it would be approved? So, you could do the due diligence yourself and eliminate an "if", both for yourself and as a selling point.

    Convey your urgency to the prospective sellers of the 2 buildings and ask for a contract, perhaps contingent on their closing their other deal. Maybe get more concessions because you are accommodating their situation.

    Or, you could lower your offer or improve your terms for the 2 buildings with the thinking that if you lose out then you'll just do your condo conversion. If you get better terms or lower price, its an even better deal and probably tilts your decision towards the buildings.

    Last, you could try and figure out a way to do both. Try and find a partner to provide some capital. Split the profits on the condo conversion and their use their capital to allow you to still get the 2 buildings.

  • Member since 2008 · 20 posts · 0 votes
    19y

    Why can't values keep appreciating?

    They've done so consistently in the US for the last 50 years.

    The average appreciation is over 6.3% annually at the moment for the last 50 year period.

    For as long as we've been tracking home values, there has never been a year that home values have on average gone negative.

    Economists have predicted 25 of the last 2 recessions! :)

    Keep in mind we live in an inflationary economy. The government keeps printing money which in turn creates inflation, which in turn inflates the values of assets.

    That being said, property values CAN go down, and sometimes do.

    On average, they don't.

    Especially if you are using a buy and hold philosophy. I have never seen anywhere a period of 10 years, even in the biggest housing recessions, where prices have not stabilized and actually increased in value over their original value.

    This bubble babble may be over-hyped.

  • Member since 2008 · 20 posts · 0 votes
    19y

    Here's some of the quotes: (From the book "Equity Happens")

    Dire Media Predictions

    "The prices of houses seem to have reached a plateau, and there is reasonable expectancy that prices will decline." -Time Magazine, 1947

    "Houses cost too much for the mass market. Today's average price is around $8,000 -out of the reach for two-thirds of all buyers." -Science Digest, 1948

    "The goal of owning a home seems to be getting beyond the reach of more and more Americans. The typical new house today costs about $28,000." -Business Week,1969

    "You might well be suspicious of 'common wisdom' that tells you, 'Don't wait, buy now.. .continuing inflation will force home prices and rents higher and higher.'" -NEA Journal, 1970

    "The median price of a home today is approaching $50,000.. .. Housing experts predict price rises in the future won't be that great."-Nations Business, 1977

    "The era of easy profits in real estate may be drawing to a close." - Money Magazine, 1981

    "The golden-age of risk-free run-ups in home prices is gone." - Money Magazine, 1985

    "Most economists agree.. . [a home] will become little more than a roof and a tax deduction, certainly not the lucrative investment it was through much of the 1980's." - Money Magazine, 1986

    "Financial planners agree that houses will continue to be a poor investment."
    - Kiplinger's Personal Financial Magazine, 1993

    "A home is where the bad investment is." -San Francisco Examiner, 1996

    Note: We got all of those funny media quotes from the great book by Gary Eldred,"106 Mistakes Home Buyers Make -and How You Can Avoid Them".

  • Member since 2008 · 452 posts · 18 votes
    19y

    Well all good points taken.

    Ya I'm on the fence about it. I know that "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush". It always is. And also "only a fool holds out for the top dollar". It's amazing how much truth is in those sayings.

    Well another interesting development is now I have both buildings under contract. So that changes everything again. I think I might just cash out if I can find a buyer. If I can't then I'm gonna do that condo conversion. Those are pretty much my choices, unless that seller would take my building in trade which sometimes happens.

  • Member since 2008 · 452 posts · 18 votes
    19y

    Ya I've just been thinking it over and I think I'm just going to try and liquidate. So I think what I'm gonna do right now is contact every dare realtor I can find here in my city and let them know that I'll look at any reasonable offer. That way I can try to seriously get those two big properties.

    On that note if you'd be interested in seeing that building and all the details about it, and about the condo conversion potential it's at my website:
    mshinvestments

    Like I said I need to close this deal asap. So if you wanna do a condo conversion and make 2m net then it might be worth your time to have a look at this property.

  • Real Estate Investor · OH · Member since 2008 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    19y

    Vacman,

    R2d2 claims that the appreciation rate in his area is 50%! That can not continue for long.

    Also, where did you find that 6.3% appreciation rate?

    Mike

  • Member since 2008 · 20 posts · 0 votes
    19y

    MikeOH,

    I can't seem to find data past 1968, but here's some good info taken from the National Association of Realtors.

    http://www.realestateabc.com/graphs/natlmedian.htm

    This shows that the average inflation rate between 1968 and 2004 was actually at 6.4%.

    When leveraged at even 4:1 you are making a 20% return on your investment even at 5% inflation.

    Not bad!

  • Member since 2008 · 452 posts · 18 votes
    19y

    in 2006 houses in Edmonton appreciated by 52%. This year were up about 25% so far and climbing. See the Edmonton Real Estate Board website for details on those stats.

  • Member since 2008 · 452 posts · 18 votes
    19y

    Well again I'm suppose to have like 3 offers coming in perhaps tomorrow, or end of this week on the stupid thing. This is driving me nuts. Well hopefully this time someone will give me a serious offer.

  • Member since 2008 · 452 posts · 18 votes
    19y

    So far one offer has come in this morning from supposedly a solid buyer. And there's potentially 3 more coming in today. So who knows I might actually be able to sell the building and do my big deal.

  • Member since 2008 · 452 posts · 18 votes
    19y

    Okay it's finally sold!!!

    I didn't get the amount I wanted for it but it's within the range of what this type of a building would normally sell for. So it's not too bad. Now I can do that next deal which will have 105 units in total. Plus the 29 suiter I'm buying as well. So it's looking pretty good at this stage.

  • Full-Time Investor · Charlotte, NC · Member since 2009 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    15y

    i don't know how i came across this thread, but it's like getting in a time machine and going back a few years..."how can appreciation not continue" is the words theposter used i belive...pretty neat stuff here...btw, looks like mikeoh nailed it

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