Private Lending & Conventional Mortgage Advice7moFollowHow I Think About Risk in Direct Mail Investing (Real Estate Analogy)Casey HildrethMember since 2026 · 7 posts · 2 votesSomeone asked me how I underwrite the risk of investing in a direct mail campaign. Here’s how I explain it using a real estate analogy:1. The “ARV” is the Projected ROAS (Return on Ad Spend) - Based on years of historical data from the same brand.2. The “Rehab Cost” is the CTPM (Cost to Print and Mail) - A fixed, known number before you invest.3. The “Refinance” is the Two-Stage Distribution - The model is structured to pay you back 100% of your principal first.While no investment is risk-free, this structure significantly de-risks the deal faster thana typical real estate project.0Reply115 views