Massachusetts Multi-Family Data going back to 1997 - as of 1/15

Massachusetts Multi-Family Data going back to 1997 - as of 1/15

Jonathan BombaciBusiness Member
Real Estate Agent · Lowell, MA · Member since 2019 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes

So I am a bit of a data nerd coming from corporate IT Finance world. We had a very hard time getting our hands on Market data that was specific to Multi-family in MA. You know what they say, if you can't find it the build it! Every month we put out a newsletter with updated data and my team leaders have started doing this for each of their markets (Greater Boston, Worcester, Lowell) and are using it at each of our monthly meetups. Below is the write up I did for Total Massachusetts. Please let me know what you think and if you have any questions.

Monthly data through January 2022 for MA in total shows a very strong cyclical market. The big story here is the very apparent lack of inventory in the marketplace. We saw inventory tick up a little bit in going into Q4 last year, then decline rapidly through January 2022. Last year we had a VERY STRONG sellers market and with inventory levels running even lower this year it is setting us up for an even stronger sellers market going into the spring. Looking at the Sold vs List price chart we can see on average listings are selling about 1.5% over asking price while this time in 2021 things we’re selling at about asking price on average. We are seeing some very strong bidding wars in the market place which is atypical this time of year. We are in the process of trying to move our listings scheduled for the spring up to try to take advantage of the current market and, antidotally, we are hearing similar strategies being talked about by other brokerages. We hope this will bring more inventory onto the market and help stabilize the pricing. We expect the spring market to come early and to be very competitive when it does. In fact we are trying to move up the construction timelines on some of our on-going flips so we can try to take advantage of this massive inventory shortage in the marketplace ourselves.

We are keeping an eye on the multi-family inventory in MA very closely and also monitoring the average sale price vs list price so we can provide better guidance to our clients. If we see a sharp increase in inventory this will be a good forward looking indicator that prices may start to soften. Average multi-family listings continue to be at an ALL TIME HIGH. However, based on what we see in the low listing numbers and the very low, less than 1 months of supply, of inventory currently on the market we do not see any indicators in the data to suggest the market will be changing anytime soon.

The Massachusetts Multi-Family Market has seen quite a few changes over the last 24 years. The number of Listings, or Active Inventory, is very low compared to prior years which is driving this very strong sellers market over the last few years. This shortage of inventory is driving the average listing price significantly up. As you can see 2019 was our all time high, in terms of average multi-family listing price and then it dropped in 2020. This was from the impact of COVID on the Greater Boston market. Boston, with it’s high prices, drives the majority of the MA real estate market averages at a state level. When Covid hit the prices in Boston were impacted while the suburbs, 30+ minutes outside of Boston, continued to appreciate. Values have bounced back to and as of December 2021 the average listing price is up over $750,000 (graphs below showing monthly data), making right now the most expensive MA multi-family real estate market of all time.

*This is MULTI-FAMILY specific data pulled directly from the MA MLS, this data does not include any Single Family, Condo, or Commercial properties. It also does not include any properties sold off-market or anything that was not physically listed on MLS as a "Multi-Family".

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Investor · Boston, MA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 3k+ votes
4y

@Jonathan Bombaci

Great stuff, as a current corporate finance nerd I too find this fascinating. I can only imagine how difficult it was to compile all this data, but it looks great. 

Not to add more work, but it would be interesting to see the listings compared to multi family building permits over the same time period in order to get some more insights into the drivers of absorption rates.  

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Investor · Boston, MA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    4y

    @Jonathan Bombaci

    Great stuff, as a current corporate finance nerd I too find this fascinating. I can only imagine how difficult it was to compile all this data, but it looks great. 

    Not to add more work, but it would be interesting to see the listings compared to multi family building permits over the same time period in order to get some more insights into the drivers of absorption rates.  

  • Member since 2020 · 25 posts · 27 votes
    4y

    Thanks for sharing. I always love to see data!

  • Jonathan BombaciBusiness Member
    OP
    Real Estate Agent · Lowell, MA · Member since 2019 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    4y
    Originally posted by @Bill F.:

    @Jonathan Bombaci

    Great stuff, as a current corporate finance nerd I too find this fascinating. I can only imagine how difficult it was to compile all this data, but it looks great. 

    Not to add more work, but it would be interesting to see the listings compared to multi family building permits over the same time period in order to get some more insights into the drivers of absorption rates.  

    Thanks Bill. MF building permits? You mean multi family starts like new construction or something else?

    From my experience there aren’t very many new construction MF under 10 units going on in MA. Most of the newer builds are being sold off as condos since the zoning is the same and they retail for much more as individual condos than as MF units in most markets. 

  • Jason MuthPro Member
    Investor · Newburyport, MA · Member since 2015 · 58 posts · 40 votes
    4y

    Awesome insights as always, Jon. I really need to get to one of your in-person meetups in the coming months. I see Kyle posting about them all the time.

    Question - you're suggesting to clients that they should move up their spring listings to now? I know that rates are going up, but are you thinking that this velocity will cool off in the spring? I was seeing indications that the current conditions would only continue, if not tilt even further in the sellers' direction through the whole of the spring market.

  • Brian LucierPro Member
    Property Manager · Fitchburg, MA · Member since 2012 · 148 posts · 201 votes
    4y

    Thank you so much @Jonathan Bombaci. This is great information to pass along to our investor clients. Would it be presumptuous for us to pass along your contact info as a MF Realtor to our pool of MF investor clients? Several of the Massachusetts landlords we manage properties for are continuing to buy properties and this type of market data is an incredibly valuable insight to give them buying guidance. Thank you again Jonathan.

    @Bill F. Hi Bill. Last year in 2021 I renewed my MA CSL in a live classroom and it was an eyeopener. Fewer of the old timers are renewing their licenses and there are fewer young bucks coming into the trades taking the test and getting their CSL licenses. There has been a drop of nearly 3,500 CSL licence holders statewide over the past 5 years and the trend is continuing in that direction. Compound this with the new green deal energy codes in Massachusetts and it is becoming increasingly more difficult, and more expensive to build anything in Massachusetts. Rising materials costs, labor shortages, supply chain issues, and the rising bar to obtaining permits to meet energy code are also dampening the development arena. To sum it up, building right now is an uphill and costly venture with narrowing margins for the builder and extremely high purchase prices for newer energy-efficient construction.

    Great time to invest in the manufacturers of spray foam insulation, solar batteries, and start thinking about adding car charging ports to your existing MF properties if you can. Definitely interesting times ahead for the MF investor and builders.

  • Investor · Boston, MA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Jonathan Bombaci:
    Originally posted by @Bill F.:

    @Jonathan Bombaci

    Great stuff, as a current corporate finance nerd I too find this fascinating. I can only imagine how difficult it was to compile all this data, but it looks great. 

    Not to add more work, but it would be interesting to see the listings compared to multi family building permits over the same time period in order to get some more insights into the drivers of absorption rates.  

    Thanks Bill. MF building permits? You mean multi family starts like new construction or something else?

    From my experience there aren’t very many new construction MF under 10 units going on in MA. Most of the newer builds are being sold off as condos since the zoning is the same and they retail for much more as individual condos than as MF units in most markets. 


     Yea that's what I meant, sorry for being imprecise. 

    I think I'd be interesting to see the number of new units that have come into the market over the same time period. Though IDK if limiting the scope of the analysis to buldings with <10 units is the best since I'm not sure that when a customer goes looking for a place to rent they think about the market in that way. I could be wrong, but I'd assume  they care more about location, bed rooms, bathrooms, rental rate, parking, ect. That would open the new unit scope up to any MF, so 5+ units. 

    Would love to hear your thoughts on that. 

  • Jonathan BombaciBusiness Member
    OP
    Real Estate Agent · Lowell, MA · Member since 2019 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    4y

    Thank you Brian I am glad this is something you can appreciate. I thought I responded to this before but I don't see it in the thread maybe something weird happened.... We would certainly appreciate any referrals. I run a team of investor focused agents. Everyone either owns investment properties or makes a committment to purchase one within 12 months of joining the team. I'm a BIG believer in "eat what you preach" and if you want to work with my leads, and my investors, you need to be an investor yourself. We actually have an agent on the team @Kyle Curtin who just closed on his first househacked in Leominster who might be worth connecting with. 

    We also host FREE monthly meetups in Lowell and Worcester which are posted here on BP under the events tab. Check them out and hopefully I get to see you at one of our events.  

    Best,

    Jon 

  • Jonathan BombaciBusiness Member
    OP
    Real Estate Agent · Lowell, MA · Member since 2019 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Bill F.:
    Quote from @Jonathan Bombaci:
    Originally posted by @Bill F.:

    @Jonathan Bombaci

    Great stuff, as a current corporate finance nerd I too find this fascinating. I can only imagine how difficult it was to compile all this data, but it looks great. 

    Not to add more work, but it would be interesting to see the listings compared to multi family building permits over the same time period in order to get some more insights into the drivers of absorption rates.  

    Thanks Bill. MF building permits? You mean multi family starts like new construction or something else?

    From my experience there aren’t very many new construction MF under 10 units going on in MA. Most of the newer builds are being sold off as condos since the zoning is the same and they retail for much more as individual condos than as MF units in most markets. 


     Yea that's what I meant, sorry for being imprecise. 

    I think I'd be interesting to see the number of new units that have come into the market over the same time period. Though IDK if limiting the scope of the analysis to buldings with <10 units is the best since I'm not sure that when a customer goes looking for a place to rent they think about the market in that way. I could be wrong, but I'd assume  they care more about location, bed rooms, bathrooms, rental rate, parking, ect. That would open the new unit scope up to any MF, so 5+ units. 

    Would love to hear your thoughts on that. 

    So this is a different dataset from Co-star which typically gathers data from just the larger apartment complexes and institutional builders. Since it is a different source it shouldn't be compared directly to what we pulled from MLS but at least it shows a trend which I think speaks to what you are getting at. The number of units under construction seems pretty stable but the "new construction starts" looks a little problematic. 


  • Real Estate Agent · Burlington MA · Member since 2018 · 114 posts · 142 votes
    4y

    Great article. Thanks for sharing @Jonathan Bombaci

  • Real Estate Agent · Tewksbury, MA · Member since 2020 · 494 posts · 284 votes
    4y

    @Jonathan Bombaci

    Thank you very much for the mention Jon! @Brian Lucier and I have actually connected quite a bit and I interviewed him on the podcast as well last year haha! He is such an incredible and inspiring person to be around, with an absolutely amazing story & vision!!! :)

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