Been pulling market level STR data for 2026 and the divergence between cities is striking enough that I think it's worth breaking down.

We talk about "the STR market" like it's one thing. It's not. Right now there are two completely different industries operating under the same name.

Denver: -31.5% occupancy year over year. Asheville: -25.3%. Nashville: -18.6%. Orlando sitting at 50% occupancy lowest of any major tracked market.

Meanwhile Miami is up 17.2%. Phoenix up 14.2%. Scottsdale up 10.2%.

Same year. Same platform. Completely different reality.

The difference isn't luck. The markets winning share three things supply was never allowed to explode because of geographic or regulatory constraints, demand drivers are diversified rather than dependent on one type of traveler, and the operators there invested in hospitality rather than just listing arbitrage.

The markets bleeding share three things too 15-20%+ annual supply growth during 2021-2022, investors who bought at peak prices expecting market momentum to carry them, and no differentiation when competition arrived.

National active STR listings now exceed 1.7 million. Supply is growing another 4.6% in 2026. That's not a crisis nationally but in markets where inventory already overshot demand by 30-40%, the normalization process takes 12-24 months minimum.

The most important question any STR investor should be asking right now isn't "is the market good?" It's "which side of this split is my market on?"

What markets are people here seeing the biggest performance gaps in right now?