What’s Driving California’s Mass Exodus?

What’s Driving California’s Mass Exodus?

Rental Property Investor · Northern, CA · Member since 2012 · 5k+ posts · 5k+ votes

Just watched this fascinating and well-done story by CNBC on "What’s Driving California’s Mass Exodus?"

Now, I live and invest in California, so I'm definitely not a California hater.  However, I'm also no California fanboy.  I'm actually pretty open-minded and enjoy listening to something like this to perhaps get a different perspective.

There are certainly benefits to investing in California.  Like I said, I do it and I do quite well by doing so.  However, there's also no arguing there are downsides to doing business here.  

We have the #1 highest state income tax in the entire country!  It's also very business unfriendly here.  According to a CNBC study (mentioned in the story), we are ranked DEAD LAST in the country when it comes to the cost of doing business.

This is probably the reason we've actually been seeing a net migration LOSS of residents in this state to other states.  Not to mention the thousands of companies that have left (or are leaving) the state, including big name companies like Hewlett Packard (moving to Houston), Oracle (moving to Austin), and Tesla (Elon and the next Gigafactory will be in Austin).  

(Anyone see a theme there with Texas?)

Anyway, not trying to convince anyone of anything.  Except perhaps our state legislators better wake up if they want to stop this mass exodus.  Unfortunately, I'm not sure they get it yet.  At least the laws that continue to be proposed and passed in this state don't seem to signal (to me) that they do.

Thoughts?

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Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2017 · 31 posts · 51 votes
5y

No surprises here at all.  Even more a 🤔, is the fact that CA voters vote the same way each election cycle. SMH

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Rental Property Investor · Knoxville, TN · Member since 2020 · 51 posts · 40 votes
    5y

    @Kyle J.

    Mass exit?

    I wouldn’t call the population decreasing by .18% a mass exit. Population is still really close to 40 million.

    As far as the companies that are leaving. Good riddance. Majority way low paying with garbage CEO’s.

    [Political rhetoric removed by moderators]

    Noted highest property values, over the past 50 years the population has steadily increased 20 million, and to add rents are great.

    The people that are worried about eviction memorandums. Sounds like you need a better screening process.

    🙌🏼🙌🏼

  • Member since 2019 · 332 posts · 171 votes
    5y

    @Justin Thorpe not just that, but students in top schools all over the world dream about coming to California (and making it big), which is the epicenter of innovation - something that is very difficult to achieve by another state or country. Even non-tech industries (like real estate) have start ups in California. Higher real estate prices are just a reflection of a booming economy, not the other way round. Many clickbait articles write as if govt has made wrong policy decisions to inflate the real estate prices. Should the govt try to force the real estate prices to same as Midwest, Texas or Florida? And they talk as if California is going to become like the rust belt in Midwest. Good for clickbait but very unrealistic.

    California is competing with other countries (not Midwest, Texas, or Florida) to maintain its status as the tech epicenter of the world, and the best competition is so far behind that they may never catch up.

  • Investor · Thousand Oaks, CA · Member since 2017 · 306 posts · 123 votes
    5y

    Have to disagree about it being business unfriendly it's only unfriendly to the old polluting type of Businesses. Since the pandemic on the company i advise for has received over $350,000 direct investments with Crowdfunding site StartEngine plus almost another $760K on Government orders and they are now hiring AI or ML Engineers to work from home remotely. [Link removed by moderators]
    another startup I'm with Hago Energetics Inc. has just received a $150,000 Grant from Calseed and has lots of new business as a public benefit corp.

    A friend's company BOKU in Ojai, California has raised over $500,000k and all during this pandemic while their retail store is closed. [Link removed by moderators]

    I intend to launch a  Crypto fund for Real Estate during Q3 using similar Blockchain and AI Methods with Crowdfunding so need zero bank loans to buy Real Estate then. I personally don't mind the higher taxes on personal income as I do not need to pay myself so much as I don't have to keep mortgages for more than 5 years. The 26% R &D Tax credit and huge Federal Tax avoidance makes a Good CFO worth every penny you write off besides Property Taxes in Texas are much higher unless you get a $1.1billion dollar exemption like Elon Musk got from the State directly. All Sustainable Energy improvements under the California Healthy home program increase my property's value while offering us Tax Credits as landlords. 

  • San Diego, CA · Member since 2020 · 3 posts · 2 votes
    5y

    @Mary Gafner My guess is because everyone who doesn’t live here still wants to live here - even if they wouldn’t or couldn’t ever live here haha. But really I mean can you think of another city that everyone seems to envy? Everywhere else has SOMEthing about it, usually weather. There is literally everything in driving distance to San Diego except you don’t have harsh seasons to accompany that luxury. It’s the cool place to be and people will pay a high price for cool. It’s like driving a hummer, nobody did it because it was cost effective or good on the environment. I personally cannot stand how much of our money we’ve thrown away living and renting here. But I’m still here. Hopefully not for much longer though ;).

  • Jim StanleyPro Member
    Denver, CO · Member since 2017 · 58 posts · 27 votes
    5y
    Every time I'm in Southern Cal, I think to myself, "This would be a really great place if it weren't for all the darn people."  
    I live in Colorado and we have the opposite problem: Too many people moving in, too fast.  Good for property values, bad for quality of life.
    Maybe people leaving isn't such a bad thing.
  • New to Real Estate · Sacramento, CA · Member since 2015 · 104 posts · 33 votes
    5y

    (posted accidentally, deleted!)

  • Member since 2021 · 2 posts · 3 votes
    5y

    I think you answered your own question quite well there Kyle.  The question is moving from why the exodus to why stay?  I'm losing reasons by the day.  CA is in big trouble.  The upper middle class supports CA.  The math doesn't take as many 150K+ incomes leaving the State as you'd think before it's catastrophe.  Similar to what we are seeing in NY.  I'm over it.  Beach isn't worth an extra $100K in taxes a year and then another $100K in costs, sorry.  I just hope I can get out before it crashes down.  Half of me thinks there's strings being pulled for the old smash and grab.  They know this isn't sustainable but they keep pushing it anyway.

  • Investor · San Jose, CA · Member since 2012 · 61 posts · 40 votes
    5y

    Most People i know are expecting WFH to continue. But i expect the opposite with a majority of workers called back in and only a minority allowed to continue to WFH

    I would expect this policy change to occur after vaccine availability to the employees but in some cases before availability.

    Examples: JP Morgan required most senior sales and trading employees to return in sept 2020 and i just read the IRS is calling ALL telework employees back in.

  • Member since 2020 · 437 posts · 675 votes
    5y

    @Tushar P.

    Yes that’s exactly right. CA is indeed competing with large global economies.

    Also what is unfortunate is that other so called “hot” cities are relying on CA residents to migrate into them vs creating their own organic and flourishing tech economies.

    Just look at this thread as an example. People from non CA states are dancing in the street because 2 companies from CA moved their “HQs” to their neck of the woods and a few hundred families have moved from CA into town.

    Cool that’s their path to prosperity vs creating local high tech companies and a world class economy. I find it very pathetic that for these states to prosper they need to see CA fail.

    Unfortunately CA won’t fail, it will only get stronger.

  • Member since 2020 · 437 posts · 675 votes
    5y

    @Bruce Leong

    I think that day when people will start working on site is not too far into the future and YES that’s how it will happen. Remote workers will soon find themselves in the minority and left behind.

  • Rental Property Investor · San Diego, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Jeffery Callis:

    @Kyle J.

    Mass exit?

    I wouldn’t call the population decreasing by .18% a mass exit. Population is still really close to 40 million.

    As far as the companies that are leaving. Good riddance. Majority way low paying with garbage CEO’s.

    California staying blue is probably the best thing that every happened to the state 😆

    Noted highest property values, over the past 50 years the population has steadily increased 20 million, and to add rents are great.

    The people that are worried about eviction memorandums. Sounds like you need a better screening process.

    🙌🏼🙌🏼

    I think the issue is people that CA most needs are leaving, while people that don't have the means to leave are staying.  And you can say "well we didn't want that person / business anyway!"  but if you think it's a good trend that tech companies are saying "we are leaving California" along with many high profile rich people, you're crazy.

    How about this, because I'm curious:  Why do you think the various sites that tract this stuff (let's use the U-Haul one way data) show CA cities being so highly represented in the top 10 places people are leaving and various red areas as the top 10 areas they're going to?   Not trying to start an argument or anything as it's a waste of time, but I am curious what you think...

  • Rental Property Investor · Knoxville, TN · Member since 2020 · 51 posts · 40 votes
    5y

    @Cody L.

    1. I think you are underestimating just how many people live in California almost 40 million.

    2. The jobs that are leaving a California are not main source of income for Californians. (Generally low paying Tesla starts at $15/hr) where the average salary medium in Palo Alto is 100k plus. The people working there are basically already living is poverty by wage standards

    3. Your looking at 1 year versus historical data. The trend for 50+ years is 🆙

    4. Majority of the people like Elon and others have been living off the tit of the progressive agenda of California and now that the state isn’t offering the same kind of subsidies. They want to take advantage somewhere else like Texas.

    5. I don’t think making accusations of someone being “crazy” is a good way to start a conversation FYI.

    6. If you want find out a trend history knows all 💰💰

  • Investor · Thousand Oaks, CA · Member since 2017 · 306 posts · 123 votes
    5y

    The average median income is $109,000 in my city, which includes low-wage jobs. if anyone watches CNBC’s Diana Olick reports on how the government plans to disperse rental relief, Realty Mogul CEO says only larger States like California and New York have internal controls to use the money Wisely. She also states:

    "I’ve never seen investor demand higher for multifamily homes: RealtyMogul CEO"

    Land values are highest where people want to live what's affordable near our Coast in Malibu is what a mansion might cost in the snow or rust belt. sales, listings, and vacancies in multifamily are at a 50 year low in California so not worried if less than 2% must leave the state to find employment. Our AI startup has created real jobs for Americans in 2020 and is continuing to look for skilled AI or ML Engineers. they can live almost anywhere in the US as work is remote. but most like infrastructure instead of living off-grid high-speed internet and electric vehicle charging is what they want in a rental. 

  • Brian BoydPro Member
    USA · Member since 2019 · 305 posts · 536 votes
    5y

    @Kyle J. Failed Democratic policies.

  • Marc RiceBusiness Member
    Real Estate Agent · Columbus Cleveland Dayton, OH · Member since 2018 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    5y

    @Kyle J.

    I’ve seen a lot of clients buy out of state in Ohio from California but they still reside there. A lot of people love it but want to own real estate elsewhere.

    Marc Rice | Investor Friendly Agent at Reafco Tailwind Team574 Reviews
  • Investor · Jackson, MS · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 769 votes
    5y

    Okay, as a California native who has been investing and living in Mississippi for the last 20 years and just now returned home to California, let me say a few things: 

    1. Yes, income taxes are higher. There are also more services. 

    2. Relative to the price of property, real estate taxes are not high. In fact that is one of the reasons income taxes are high. Prop. 13 put a lid on real estate taxes so schools need to be supported by income tax. 

    3. If there was really a mass exodus of people from California the price of real estate would do down. It isn't. 

    4. The homeless population is in part a consequence of the having weather which most of those who are homeless can survive in. 

    5. I'm guessing most of the exodus is on the part of those who are retiring. Yes, California is a nice place to retire. They end up in nearby states like Nevada and Arizona. Sometimes it is just spillover because California is so crowded. 

    I moved back here because my 88 year old mother refused to live in Mississippi and because I could work remotely from my job in Mississippi this year. And because of this: 

    Any questions? 

  • Real Estate Broker · Coppell, TX · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    5y
  • Will BarnardPro Member
    Moderator
    Developer · Santa Clarita, CA · Member since 2008 · 15k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    5y

    There are a whole lot of opinions in this thread, many of which lacking facts. Certainly we are all entitled to our opinions, but it would do the BP membership more justice with facts outweighing opinions on these topics.

    "Mass exodus" is a media term for the fact that CA had a net domestic migration loss in 2020 higher than all other 49 states. NY was second on that list! The population actually did lose in 2020 and stayed flat in 2019, years prior having gains. These gains come from births and international migration. LA is a melting pot for this. The media spins the news to create drama to create profits. Here in SO Cal this week, we had "winter storm warnings" all over the news. Ask anyone from any northern state and they would laugh their azz off at such a news story. This is all fact.

    The CA population continues to vote in absurd propositions written by absurd politicians and our legislatures don't seem to have a clue about finances. You can mock the big businesses that have left (many already mentioned in this thread) and say happy trails but the $15 per hour low wages one poster was claiming is NOT the story to that. When Elon left, he took a ton of income to CA away from CA. TX incentivized him to come. Why? They did some accounting and it made sense. CA does the opposite. They continue to make it the most costly state to run a business, they make building homes the most costly with silly rules, regulations and time wasting bureaucracies. They institute "affordable housing" initiatives and at the same time, initiate new laws that make the cost to build more. These are the issues that we face here in CA and unfortunately, they are all born from those seeking office, power, and keeping their office.

    One poster mentioned that the exodus was made up. That is certainly not true, just look at the facts. However, another asked why are housing prices continuing to climb. That is because despite the net migration loss (which -200k of 39+M people is a small percentage), the politicians have done literally nothing to feed the inventory for housing as CA has the highest demand and lowest inventory of housing and it has been that way for over two decades. With the population growth over the past 3 decades, the housing inventory has not kept up. The ONE and only thing I can find that helped (or will help slightly) is the new ADU laws past in CA. But let's face the facts, even with that great new law, it will not put a significant dent in the supply/demand imbalance.

    When I build a new home here, I am required to install rain harvesting tanks (or rain planters) based on the square footage of the roof. They require the tanks themselves, a pad to set them on, downspouts from gutters to connect into the tank and then drainage for overflow of the tanks out to the street. So in other words, the politicians great idea to "conserve water" for our drought was this, yet any new house I and others build also comes with auto sprinklers and they are often purchased by well to do millennials or 50+ year olds who wouldn't consider attaching a hose to the tanks to hand water what is already automatically watered by the sprinkler systems. So ultimately, we builders spend thousands of extra wasted dollars so the water from the roof now routes direct to the street curb instead of within the yard (if the downspouts were not connected to rain tanks). Both a waste of money and a waste of water. So much for affordable housing.

    Anyways, enough of my rant on the politics here in CA, the moral of this post is to look at the facts, not just opinions. Mass exodus is just a media term, look at net migration/population/incomes/home prices/home inventory levels/etc. These facts will answer your questions. No, CA is not going to become a ghost town, on the contrary, it will continue to rise in population, however, the quality and level of the incomes of CA will continue to be hampered by the politicians so long as Californian's continue to elect these same politicians. It is a sad but true fact and yet I am not letting any of these idiots kick me out of my State. I will just find a way, just as I find a way to shift my business to adapt to market changes.

  • Rental Property Investor · Rancho Cucamonga, CA · Member since 2020 · 60 posts · 23 votes
    5y

    One thing to keep an eye on is how many companies loosen telecommuting policies post-COVID. I live in CA and am looking to leave hopefully once a daughter finishes high school. I have many, many coworkers who are waiting to hopefully hear that our company will shift to 100% telecommuting, in which case they all plan to leave the state. I'm sure there are many others like this.

  • Denver, CO · Member since 2017 · 12 posts · 4 votes
    5y

    @Michael C.

    Couldn’t agree with you more Michael! I was flabbergasted when I read the results of the last election (Colorado & Denver). I believe I read it in the Westword, I was expecting landslide no’s, I was very upset when that wasn’t the case, seem to remember the votes around 75% yes on all the tax bumps. Weed was supposed to put huge capital improvements into the public school system 7 years ago, but they never saw any of that money, and a few short years later legislators ask for huge tax hikes in the name of schools, and the public votes it up. People move here because the historical votes have been moderate, which has bred a great place to live through reasonable regulation, taxes, business friendliness. But I guess that’s top down thinking that the masses don’t understand. When choices like the Gallagher amendment repeal are made I can’t help but laugh at anyone trying to entertain an “affordable housing crisis” debate. The last 20 years of Colorado legislation has been a downhill demise of the state, I’ve been watching the migration to Texas and expect much the same. Though on the flip side, the change from red or moderate to blue pushes appreciation which I welcome. I don’t see California losing population, or price outside of market swings.

  • Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    5y

    Most of the Asian 2nd immigrant, most tech immigrant workers from all over the world, and hardworker Latino/Hispanic community is not leaving CA/Bay Area due to various reasons but the mainly strong community and job presence. Those who're leaving mostly retirees or  citizens that just recently arrive in CA. For many immigrants, CA and Bay Area is still considerably cheaper than where they're coming from and bringing up the tremendous opportunity.

    Some people are blaming politician, but people forgot all politicians sucks anywhere in the world and you can't depend on the gov. 

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Will Barnard:

    There are a whole lot of opinions in this thread, many of which lacking facts. Certainly we are all entitled to our opinions, but it would do the BP membership more justice with facts outweighing opinions on these topics.

    "Mass exodus" is a media term for the fact that CA had a net domestic migration loss in 2020 higher than all other 49 states. NY was second on that list! The population actually did lose in 2020 and stayed flat in 2019, years prior having gains. These gains come from births and international migration. LA is a melting pot for this. The media spins the news to create drama to create profits. Here in SO Cal this week, we had "winter storm warnings" all over the news. Ask anyone from any northern state and they would laugh their azz off at such a news story. This is all fact.

    The CA population continues to vote in absurd propositions written by absurd politicians and our legislatures don't seem to have a clue about finances. You can mock the big businesses that have left (many already mentioned in this thread) and say happy trails but the $15 per hour low wages one poster was claiming is NOT the story to that. When Elon left, he took a ton of income to CA away from CA. TX incentivized him to come. Why? They did some accounting and it made sense. CA does the opposite. They continue to make it the most costly state to run a business, they make building homes the most costly with silly rules, regulations and time wasting bureaucracies. They institute "affordable housing" initiatives and at the same time, initiate new laws that make the cost to build more. These are the issues that we face here in CA and unfortunately, they are all born from those seeking office, power, and keeping their office.

    One poster mentioned that the exodus was made up. That is certainly not true, just look at the facts. However, another asked why are housing prices continuing to climb. That is because despite the net migration loss (which -200k of 39+M people is a small percentage), the politicians have done literally nothing to feed the inventory for housing as CA has the highest demand and lowest inventory of housing and it has been that way for over two decades. With the population growth over the past 3 decades, the housing inventory has not kept up. The ONE and only thing I can find that helped (or will help slightly) is the new ADU laws past in CA. But lot's face the facts, even with that great new law, it will not put a significant dent in the supply/demand imbalance.

    When I build a new home here, I am required to install rain harvesting tanks (or rain planters) based on the square footage of the roof. They require the tanks themselves, a pad to set them on, downspouts from gutters to connect into the tank and then drainage for overflow of the tanks out to the street. So in other words, the politicians great idea to "conserve water" for our drought was this, yet any new house I and others build also comes with auto sprinklers and they are often purchased by well to do millennials or 50+ year olds who wouldn't consider attaching a hose to the tanks to hand water what is already automatically watered by the sprinkler systems. So ultimately, we builders spend thousands of extra wasted dollars so the water from the roof now routes direct to the street curb instead of within the yard (if the downspouts were not connected to rain tanks). Both a waste of money and a waste of water. So much for affordable housing.

    Anyways, enough of my rant on the politics here in CA, the moral of this post is to look at the facts, not just opinions. Mass exodus is just a media term, look at net migration/population/incomes/home prices/home inventory levels/etc. These facts will answer your questions. No, CA is not going to become a ghost town, on the contrary, it will continue to rise in population, however, the quality and level of the incomes of CA will continue to be hampered by the politicians so long as Californian's continue to elect these same politicians. It is a sad but true fact and yet I am not letting any of these idiots kick me out of my State. I will just find a way, just as I find a way to shift my business to adapt to market changes.

    Interesting perspective on rain water storage.. we do the same the Portland metro area.  however its not to save water we have plenty of that LOL.. its to keep water that falls from the sky on the site it fell on and not runoff with contaminant that then run into our streams and rivers and affect the fish..  its all about the Salmon and Steelhead in our area.  So we accomplish this in a few ways.. the concrete basins that then have special plants that suck up the water..  or like right now were we are building in Canby  you dig a french drain in the back yard and all your rain drains funnel back to that one place to leach back into the ground.. this does cause some soggy backyards that buyers complain about but its the law.. And other sites you can do a vertical dry well.. but bottom line water stays on the land like it was never built on is the purpose in our area for these water containment systems..

    Also bottom line is companies move all the time..  other states offering great packages to get companies to move to them has been going on for ever and will never stop.. its normal.  Its not some new thing.. other wise Detroit would still have a population of 1.5 million and growing instead of 700k and shrinking with 20 to 30,000 vacant houses that are there or used to be there..  whole neighborhoods have been bull dozed in that market..  I have yet to see a bulldozed neighborhood in CA.. that was not replaced by something greater..  not just an empty lot or field full of trash  like you see in other markets.

  • Rental Property Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2019 · 43 posts · 36 votes
    5y

    The always progressive San Francisco school board just voted 6 to 1 to remove the names of George Washington and Abraham Lincoln from public schools after officials deemed them and other prominent figures unworthy of the honor.

    The main reason I am looking to exchange to another state is really simple - I want to continue making the best returns on my REIs.  But California politicians are a breed apart and governance is a factor in my decision. I should feel welcome to stay but I do not.

    I am pretty sure that divesting $2 million from California (tax free) and spending that in another state will not have any effect on California politicians.  And I doubt 100,000 people like me are also going to divest. 

    Governance is not as big of a driver for me as ROI. But I have lost trust in state and local electeds (and their constituents) in California. I want to reinvest where I do not have to increasingly worry about what nutty state and local electeds might do next to undermine or take my investments.

  • Member since 2020 · 5 posts · 3 votes
    5y

    I live in Monterey County and besides the massive forest fires, mud slides that literally wipe out entire sections of highway and decimate whole communities, and of course the occasional earthquake, it's a lovely place to live.  :-p  Top all of that off with Governor Newsom's implementation of blatantly crooked regulations, laws and guidelines, well I just really love it here.  

  • Rental Property Investor · Topeka, KS · Member since 2017 · 56 posts · 137 votes
    5y

    @Kyle J. socialism is a societal cancer and wrecks economies.

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