What next? Predictions for next wave if shutdowns and impact??

What next? Predictions for next wave if shutdowns and impact??

Flipper/Rehabber · Member since 2018 · 102 posts · 103 votes

In Washington state like many other states we are going back to phase 1 which is pretty much a lockdown other than essential workers.

Many people have not recovered from the first shut down especially people without the ability to work from home. Tech workers and government workers have been fine working from home but many blue collar workers arent so lucky.

I hate to sound like a doomsday kind of guy that says "the sky is falling"... But things look like they will get very tough for many people.

Banks have not started foreclosing on people behind on payments from the Spring at this point. Also some landlords in areas like Seattle have tenants that have chosen to stop paying (because they can muss payments) or simply they cannot pay. There are also many people leaving cities like Seattle because of high crime, homeless camps everywhere etc. My thoughts are people out of work and feeling unsafe will be taking off from major cities if they can.

I am blessed to be in a good spot so far. However, I am concerned about people that are struggling and now being out if work for the next month or so. Once Biden gets in it looks like he will shut down the country on a large scale until vaccines are ready. Where will our economy be bt summer?

Not trying to be super negative but I am concerned and wondering if others are concerned? I mostly see tons of optimism on bigger pockets but wonder if others are concerned? Maybe I am just a negative nelly... I HOPE i am wrong!!

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Dave SpoonerPro Member
Rental Property Investor · Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2020 · 869 posts · 823 votes
5y

@Brett Lee

Couple of points of reassurance - the first round of relief did help a great deal. Between the stimulus and unemployment coverage, it managed to kick the can down the road a few months. We're now seeing more issues with payments, but it hasn't been as disastrous as many have repeatedly predicted, not by a long shot. Chances are high that Biden makes a new stimulus package one of his top priorities, so the doom and gloom seems pretty far fetched to me.

Second, and this is huge, we've had great vaccine results from both Pfizer and (just this morning) Moderna. The vaccines will likely get EUA before the end of the year and will start seeing widespread distribution in early 2021 to spring 2021.

I think the bigger question is: what will the long-term impact of COVID be on renter's preferred locations? It's seems secondary, but work-from-home may be the largest catalyst to change.

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  • Nathan GesnerBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Broker · Cody, WY · Member since 2010 · 28k+ posts · 41k+ votes
    5y

    I'm not sure the Presidential race is as settled as we're told. If Biden gets in, I fully expect the economy to take a hard hit. We already see a lot of small landlords heading towards foreclosure and that will only get worse.

    Just buckle in and ensure you have reserves and your investments can handle a downturn.

    The DIY Landlord Book4.7248 Reviews
  • Dave SpoonerPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2020 · 869 posts · 823 votes
    5y

    @Brett Lee

    Couple of points of reassurance - the first round of relief did help a great deal. Between the stimulus and unemployment coverage, it managed to kick the can down the road a few months. We're now seeing more issues with payments, but it hasn't been as disastrous as many have repeatedly predicted, not by a long shot. Chances are high that Biden makes a new stimulus package one of his top priorities, so the doom and gloom seems pretty far fetched to me.

    Second, and this is huge, we've had great vaccine results from both Pfizer and (just this morning) Moderna. The vaccines will likely get EUA before the end of the year and will start seeing widespread distribution in early 2021 to spring 2021.

    I think the bigger question is: what will the long-term impact of COVID be on renter's preferred locations? It's seems secondary, but work-from-home may be the largest catalyst to change.

  • Realtor · Bellevue, WA · Member since 2019 · 882 posts · 1k+ votes
    5y

    @Brett Lee, you are right, things may get a little worse in the spring of 2021. 

    You are right, we saw the demand and rental prices drop down in downtown Seattle and the demand is higher now in the suburb.

    I have many friend investors who have their rental properties. Despite tenants can just stop paying rents, a lot of my friends say that the vast majority is still paying every month (some of them said sometimes a few days late, but at the end they pay).

     The demand is still high in most of the area, and it is easy to have multiple offers, cash buyers, and people who waive inspection in listings in Bellevue/Kirkland.

    We will see how things will look like next year!

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