Bitcoin Bubble - Crash

Bitcoin Bubble - Crash

Real Estate Agent · Jacksonville, FL · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes

I know this will bring out the haters and the, "you don't understand bitcoin".  With that said here goes:

Bitcoin hit $23,000 this week.  What does that even mean?  You and I agree that today one Bitcoin is the value a used Honda Accord?  In December of 2019 it was under $4,000.  That is an amazing growth.  Imagine buying a house for 40 and selling it for 230 next year!  Sign me up.  

The premise is that the value of bitcoin is a currency, exchange it to get something in return.  As a currency it is inflationary, you get less for your currency over time.  This sounds great, but prices will rise at the same pace.  If you get paid once a month by the end of the month you will effectively make less than than the month before.  Given the option you will get paid in a stable currency.

For an examples Google: Weimar Republic, Venezuela.  While the causes of the Hyper inflation are different the effect is the same.

 No government or corporation is benefiting from bitcoin.  Regardless of your political bend it is an undeniable fact that governments want to tax and regulate and companies want to monetize.  In fact the early signs of the governments crack down are showing up in the tax code.  I can easily report currency swap trades, but if I trade bitcoin, then I must file a separate schedule for them.  

Facebook tried to start its own digital currency and was shut down.  Why would it allow Bitcoin to continue?

The Digi-dollar or the Digi-Yuan will render the Bitcoin useless as a currency. There is widespread agreement that a completely digital currency is necessary. The first government to issue one will have a significant competitive advantage in remaining or becoming the reserve currency. The pay off would be 2 people in third world with phones could transact in dollars with out any knowledge of the US or speaking English. While there are a lot of critics of the dollar and fiat currency, the US still owns assets. What is the Grand Canyon worth in a liquidation? Bitcoin on the other hand owns nothing and is accountable to no one. My bank gets hacked and I get my money back from them or the FDIC. What about Bitcoin, While block chain is a great idea, it is not fool proof. It will someday be hacked. To geek out a bit, I believe the block chain data is secure by its distributed nature, however access to it from the Client, (purse) will be compromised. If I have your pasword, (cats name, younges child, etc), I can access your account.

The press has been covering the fact that Wall Street is getting into Bitcoin.  These are the same people who brought us the Credit Default Swap and we all know how that turned out.

Bitcoin is speculation.  There will be people who make big money speculating and there will be a lot of losers in the game.  It is not investing and as long as people do not think they are going to retire holding bitcoin they should be fine and potentially could make a few bucks.  I, on the other hand am not a speculator.   

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New to Real Estate · Chicago · Member since 2020 · 6 posts · 9 votes
5y

You know what's also speculation? Fiat currencies. The US dollar loses purchasing power each year because the Federal Reserve prints money out of thin air. Not to mention, with quantitative easing & the fed lowering interest rates, they're trillions of negative-yielding bonds worldwide as a result. Why would institutions keep their clients money in negative yield assets, when they could dip their toes in bitcoin? Only a 1% allocation from Wall Street would cause a mania unlike you've ever seen before. 

The market cap of bitcoin is roughly $400 billion, the market cap of gold is $10 trillion, more or less. Bitcoin is gold 2.0 and could easily do 5x in the next decade, conservatively. You can't manipulate bitcoin either because it's decentralized and they're difficulty adjustments built-in (hard to explain here but there's crazy game theory built into the algorithm. I would recommend reading into that if you're curious. 

You cant bring a million dollars worth of gold with you on an airline to another country, yet you can do bring a million dollars in bitcoin on a USB drive. Bitcoin is a store of value and safe-haven asset that cannot be manipulated. Real estate, gold bitcoin are all great investments in my opinion. My personal strategy is to dollar cost average into it every week with small amounts, which helps reduce the volatility risk. I'm up 173% this year 

I'd be more than happy to address any concerns you have about bitcoin or share any resources!

Matt

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  • Investor · Concord, NC · Member since 2020 · 16 posts · 5 votes
    5y

    Hey guys, I just cut my junk mail into tiny pieces of paper. It's now currency! Who wants some? Trust me, it's valuable. It's limited. It doesn't matter that you can cut up your own junk mail and give it a different currency name. It's not a pyramid scheme. I tell you it will be worth more, you just buy it at a higher price, then you go hit all the internet forums and tell people how it is going to be worth more, and then they buy it at a higher price. 

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Anthony Weiss:

    Hey guys, I just cut my junk mail into tiny pieces of paper. It's now currency! Who wants some? Trust me, it's valuable. It's limited. It doesn't matter that you can cut up your own junk mail and give it a different currency name. It's not a pyramid scheme. I tell you it will be worth more, you just buy it at a higher price, then you go hit all the internet forums and tell people how it is going to be worth more, and then they buy it at a higher price. 

    If only those tiny pieces of paper had a 400 billion and growing market cap and were the best performing asset class in the last 5 and 10 year windows.  Consider if multi billion dollar institutions are placing orders in the hundreds of millions at a pop, it is possible bitcoin is more than just junk. 

    I get your point still and this is why it is probably still very early in the bitcoin game but I am no expert. I just see what some big money is doing today and try to understand why they are moving large chunks of USD to BTC. It is possible the herd follows I guess is next. For now I am nibbling on the only bitcoin mining stock on Nasdaq as these fresh 9 figure new flows are coming in apparently. This was $4 a few weeks back. I guess I will bail out at $40 or $400 in a perfect world. 

  • Investor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2015 · 6k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Lesley Resnick:

    Thanks for responding.  This has not been the barn burner topic I thought it would be.  lol

    Mining in the early days was profitable.  Today they say the overhead costs, computers and electricity exceed the value of the coins mined.

    I think the reason this thread didn't immediately become the "barn burner topic" you expected is because most regulars here at BP are treating the topic as having been done to death in many prior threads (more than a year ago), so may not even have bothered visiting this thread.  I almost bypassed it too.  However, I have noted that the average responder this time around shows a far more measured and mature response than on those earlier threads.

    My main surprise was the deja vu aspect of this recent $20k+ price per Bitcoin.  Having hardly followed its progress this last year, I did hear a couple of months ago that it had doubled in value since the $500 of it I bought two years ago (after its 2018 "bubble" did burst).  Alas, my $500 became "worth" only $300 within 24 hours of purchase.  A good start, not.  Mind you, it did gain back to $500 quite soon thereafter, but I was already annoyed that I hadn't waited just one more day before starting.

    So, my $500 became $1,000 two months ago, and has now become $2,000. 

    If I had waited that extra day at the start, my same $500 would now be worth $3,500.

    Now, if only I could remember my password...

    My own thoughts as to the reason for this deja vu is the targeted (successful) MARKETING of it through social media.  A good friend of mine showed me some unsolicited advertising emails he had received promoting the virtues of Bitcoin - two months ago.  He was somewhat curious, but I suggested that by the time such advertising gains traction, the early bird will already have caught the worm. eg. He was already being asked to pay double what I had, less than two years earlier.  It wasn't until reading this thread that I see it's doubled again. 

    [Sorry Wes, my timing was premature (again), but, maybe, wait until this bubble bursts again?]  Cheers...

  • Member since 2020 · 437 posts · 675 votes
    5y

    The debate on this is meaningless. Those who have missed the boat on the upside are crying for a crash and calling BTC a bubble or a Ponzi scheme or whatever. That’s human nature unfortunately.

  • Member since 2019 · 5 posts · 1 vote
    5y

    @Donald E Appleberry finally... I was reading down through the comments thinking to myself, surely someone on here has mentioned Ripple. I've been in crypto for about 2.5 yrs and its finally getting exciting with this bull run. Best of luck to you

  • Real Estate Agent · San Diego, CA · Member since 2018 · 144 posts · 145 votes
    5y

    @Jonathan Davis

    Same to you man! Glad to see another XRP army guy on here. Hahha. 

  • Real Estate Agent · Jacksonville, FL · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Jonathan Davis:

    @Donald E Appleberry finally... I was reading down through the comments thinking to myself, surely someone on here has mentioned Ripple. I've been in crypto for about 2.5 yrs and its finally getting exciting with this bull run. Best of luck to you

     Ripple is under investigation with the SEC.  Should be interesting to see how this plays out.

  • Real Estate Agent · Jacksonville, FL · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Justin Thorpe:

    @Lesley Resnick

    Clearly you did not get into BTC at the right time and price :)

    History is written by the winners.  Arm chair quarterbacks are everywhere.  There are so few people who will own up to owing the losers.

    I was at seminar about 5 years ago and sat in on cyber currency session.  Pay Pal was the hot topic.  At the end the presenter talked about 5 cyber currencies and said everyone should put $100 in each.

    My big loser....

    In 1997 I bought stock in a company call XYBERNAUT, they made wearable computers, Google Glasses 20+ years earlier.  I was convinced they were going to change the world and I was there early.  Well not so much.  I lost money on and it went nowhere.  I still believe there is a time coming there will be a wearable computer and it will not be a phone or a watch.  

    There will always be winners and losers, is this the Tulip mania of the 2020's or it really is different this time.  

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Lesley Resnick:
    Originally posted by @Justin Thorpe:

    @Lesley Resnick

    Clearly you did not get into BTC at the right time and price :)

    History is written by the winners.  Arm chair quarterbacks are everywhere.  There are so few people who will own up to owing the losers.

    I was at seminar about 5 years ago and sat in on cyber currency session.  Pay Pal was the hot topic.  At the end the presenter talked about 5 cyber currencies and said everyone should put $100 in each.

    My big loser....

    In 1997 I bought stock in a company call XYBERNAUT, they made wearable computers, Google Glasses 20+ years earlier.  I was convinced they were going to change the world and I was there early.  Well not so much.  I lost money on and it went nowhere.  I still believe there is a time coming there will be a wearable computer and it will not be a phone or a watch.  

    There will always be winners and losers, is this the Tulip mania of the 2020's or it really is different this time.  

    Perhaps it is still very early in the bitcoin game. 99% of institutional money has yet to buy any. Grayscale Trust just upped their minimum investment from 25K to 1 Million for new investors. No one has missed anything yet. Good luck! 

  • Real Estate Broker · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2017 · 658 posts · 293 votes
    5y

    @Lesley Resnick

    That really sucks, but your experience doesn't prove anything.

    @Justin Thorpe

    Touche! or maybe in this case, just be a strong hand and hold. Anyone who held long enough, even if they bought at the end of 2019 at 19k - which would have been fundamentally amateur, would be in profit right now. 

    @Matt R.

    Grayscale have grown massively since Dec 2019. Anything can happen, but things are really lining up. 

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Eric Carr:

    @Lesley Resnick

    That really sucks, but your experience doesn't prove anything.

    @Justin Thorpe

    Touche! or maybe in this case, just be a strong hand and hold. Anyone who held long enough, even if they bought at the end of 2019 at 19k - which would have been fundamentally amateur, would be in profit right now. 

    @Matt R.

    Grayscale have grown massively since Dec 2019. Anything can happen, but things are really lining up. 

     No doubt. Institutional adoption is the biggest news in 12 years for bitcoin. If that actually happens which it appears it is, then we know it's on. Here is the thing, there are multiple Greyscale type funds coming online in Jan 2021, been in the works for months. We are barely scratching the tip is a decent possibility now. No guarantees still. 

  • Real Estate Broker · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2017 · 658 posts · 293 votes
    5y

    @Matt R.

    Exactly. This is just getting started. 

    Michael Saylor doubled his initial $400m investment. PayPal say the earnings that Square was bringing in with BTC. We also started seeing billionaire hedge fund investors line up, now an insurance company. Massmutual was the first, and I doubt the last. Grayscale has bought billions of BTC supply and you better believe others see the writing on the wall, including the banks. We will still see volatility, albeit nothing like in the past, as the market cap grows. 

    It is just a matter of time. 

  • Investor · Charleston, SC · Member since 2019 · 112 posts · 126 votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Justin Thorpe:

    The debate on this is meaningless. Those who have missed the boat on the upside are crying for a crash and calling BTC a bubble or a Ponzi scheme or whatever. That’s human nature unfortunately.

     Spot on. Psychologically, it's easier to call for a crash than say "I was wrong". 

    Short version: bitcoin is *the best performing asset of the decade*. 10 years is too long for a bubble. Bitcoin also goes in four year cycles, following every halving, which is what happened in May. What we're seeing now isn't speculation - this is math. 

    Most bitcoin naysayers just don't understand the above. But a quick YouTube, or documentary, can clear it up. 

    It has become dangerous to ignore Bitcoin; you can't fight the signal. 

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Ross Bowman:
    Originally posted by @Justin Thorpe:

    The debate on this is meaningless. Those who have missed the boat on the upside are crying for a crash and calling BTC a bubble or a Ponzi scheme or whatever. That’s human nature unfortunately.

     Spot on. Psychologically, it's easier to call for a crash than say "I was wrong". 

    Short version: bitcoin is *the best performing asset of the decade*. 10 years is too long for a bubble. Bitcoin also goes in four year cycles, following every halving, which is what happened in May. What we're seeing now isn't speculation - this is math. 

    Most bitcoin naysayers just don't understand the above. But a quick YouTube, or documentary, can clear it up. 

    It has become dangerous to ignore Bitcoin; you can't fight the signal. 

    It is potentially the first new financial asset class to come around in 400 years. Bitcoin is actually multiple things and maybe why it is harder for some old schoolers to get their head around. It is still risky however the math don't lie as you pointed out.

  • Investor · Charleston, SC · Member since 2019 · 112 posts · 126 votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Matt R.:
    Originally posted by @Ross Bowman:
    Originally posted by @Justin Thorpe:

    The debate on this is meaningless. Those who have missed the boat on the upside are crying for a crash and calling BTC a bubble or a Ponzi scheme or whatever. That’s human nature unfortunately.

     Spot on. Psychologically, it's easier to call for a crash than say "I was wrong". 

    Short version: bitcoin is *the best performing asset of the decade*. 10 years is too long for a bubble. Bitcoin also goes in four year cycles, following every halving, which is what happened in May. What we're seeing now isn't speculation - this is math. 

    Most bitcoin naysayers just don't understand the above. But a quick YouTube, or documentary, can clear it up. 

    It has become dangerous to ignore Bitcoin; you can't fight the signal. 

    It is potentially the first new financial asset class to come around in 400 years. Bitcoin is actually multiple things and maybe why it is harder for some old schoolers to get their head around. It is still risky however the math don't lie as you pointed out.

     Yep. And to be honest, once one learns about how halving cycles work, it stops even seeming risky. 

    The supply is cut every four years until there are no more bitcoins introduced into circulation. Yes it swings like crazy, but the overall trend is up.

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Ross Bowman:
    Originally posted by @Matt R.:
    Originally posted by @Ross Bowman:
    Originally posted by @Justin Thorpe:

    The debate on this is meaningless. Those who have missed the boat on the upside are crying for a crash and calling BTC a bubble or a Ponzi scheme or whatever. That’s human nature unfortunately.

     Spot on. Psychologically, it's easier to call for a crash than say "I was wrong". 

    Short version: bitcoin is *the best performing asset of the decade*. 10 years is too long for a bubble. Bitcoin also goes in four year cycles, following every halving, which is what happened in May. What we're seeing now isn't speculation - this is math. 

    Most bitcoin naysayers just don't understand the above. But a quick YouTube, or documentary, can clear it up. 

    It has become dangerous to ignore Bitcoin; you can't fight the signal. 

    It is potentially the first new financial asset class to come around in 400 years. Bitcoin is actually multiple things and maybe why it is harder for some old schoolers to get their head around. It is still risky however the math don't lie as you pointed out.

     Yep. And to be honest, once one learns about how halving cycles work, it stops even seeming risky. 

    The supply is cut every four years until there are no more bitcoins introduced into circulation. Yes it swings like crazy, but the overall trend is up.

    Tulips R US

  • Investor · Charleston, SC · Member since 2019 · 112 posts · 126 votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Matt R.:
    Originally posted by @Ross Bowman:
    Originally posted by @Matt R.:
    Originally posted by @Ross Bowman:
    Originally posted by @Justin Thorpe:

    The debate on this is meaningless. Those who have missed the boat on the upside are crying for a crash and calling BTC a bubble or a Ponzi scheme or whatever. That’s human nature unfortunately.

     Spot on. Psychologically, it's easier to call for a crash than say "I was wrong". 

    Short version: bitcoin is *the best performing asset of the decade*. 10 years is too long for a bubble. Bitcoin also goes in four year cycles, following every halving, which is what happened in May. What we're seeing now isn't speculation - this is math. 

    Most bitcoin naysayers just don't understand the above. But a quick YouTube, or documentary, can clear it up. 

    It has become dangerous to ignore Bitcoin; you can't fight the signal. 

    It is potentially the first new financial asset class to come around in 400 years. Bitcoin is actually multiple things and maybe why it is harder for some old schoolers to get their head around. It is still risky however the math don't lie as you pointed out.

     Yep. And to be honest, once one learns about how halving cycles work, it stops even seeming risky. 

    The supply is cut every four years until there are no more bitcoins introduced into circulation. Yes it swings like crazy, but the overall trend is up.

    Tulips R US

    Love to see it. They're gonna be saying "Tulips" all the way up to 200k. 

    10 years! And still saying "tulips". SMH...

  • Real Estate Broker · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2017 · 658 posts · 293 votes
    5y

    Market cap is $769 Billion, while Bitcoin set a new ATH of about $42K

    @Ross Bowman 12 years now! Tulips just ATE Facebook

    I've also heard it a ponzi scheme. Obviously, those who call it that, don't understand what a ponzi is. Because Bitcoin is actually the opposite and it works the opposite. 

    $50K is in play and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw it by the end of this month. I also would not be surprised if Bitcoin surpasses $200K in the next 12 months. Day to day wont be straight up. But zoomed out, it will look like it on the charts. 20% corrections seem to be the new metric, I think 35% could still happen. But, so far the two 20% drops we've had over the past 2 weeks, while Bitcoins price has doubled, have been bought up very quickly. 

    I see a couple of major points of resistance: $56K, which will be the $1T market cap, 6 figure price - breaking $100K, and the next will be the market cap of gold. 

  • Real Estate Broker · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2017 · 658 posts · 293 votes
    5y

    $975 Billion 

    Let's see what happens.

  • Real Estate Broker · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2017 · 658 posts · 293 votes
    5y

    @Account Closed

    Just keep holding. Your Chase, Mellon, Citi, are about to start offering custody, and loans on your crypto will follow. 

  • Developer · Denver, CO · Member since 2019 · 273 posts · 106 votes
    5y

    @Eric Carr - I moved my BTC over to BlockFi for that reason. They offer interest and issue loans in USD with BTC as collateral. This thread started 5 months ago. I wonder where everyone stands right now with BTC sitting at $57k?

  • Real Estate Broker · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2017 · 658 posts · 293 votes
    5y

     Not only that, but the huge amount of adoption that has followed. Blockfi is trusted.  Gemini and Genesis are also offering competitive rates. I have held for almost a decade. I've seen the same arguments over the years. I think that now is the time, that people who previously hadn't paid attention, will start

  • Developer · Denver, CO · Member since 2019 · 273 posts · 106 votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Eric Carr:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    @Eric Carr - I moved my BTC over to BlockFi for that reason. They offer interest and issue loans in USD with BTC as collateral. This thread started 5 months ago. I wonder where everyone stands right now with BTC sitting at $57k?

     Not only that, but the huge amount of adoption that has followed. Blockfi is trusted.  Gemini and Genesis are also offering competitive rates. I have held for almost a decade. I've seen the same arguments over the years. I think that now is the time, that people who previously hadn't paid attention, will start

    Without question! I just wish I held on to what I had a couple years ago. I had some altcoins and a little BTC. Like many I thought "this isn't going anywhere!" Mmmmm.... my own words sure are tasty!

  • Real Estate Broker · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2017 · 658 posts · 293 votes
    5y

    In the research I did over the years... I've heard; watch the paint dry, and wealth is built by being patient. Of course there are no guarantees, but here are a few things that stood out in my mind over the years. As i held and watched the cycle of adoption form.  


    There was a twitter post, way back; "I bought bitcoin at $.06 and sold at $.08, now it's at $.32!" 

    Another is, "bitcoin has been at $8 for weeks, I'm selling my 100"

    What's past is prolog

    Tech is eating everything, including gold. 

  • Real Estate Broker · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2017 · 658 posts · 293 votes
    5y

    Adoption continues to grow. State Street and other large funds are adding it to their fund offerings / adding it to their balance sheets. Major banks, like Chase and Wells, are offering it to their clients. Custody is next. Jim Cramer recommends putting 5% into BTC. Budweiser buys and NFT and buys the Beer.eth domain name. El Salvador getting ready to make BTC legal tender. Miami launches Miami coin, will pay interest / rewards in BTC, Kiyosaki says BTC has the greatest upside, Bitcoin of America listed as one of the fastest growing companies, Citi files to trade bitcoin futures - citing increasing demand, Europes largest derivatives platform will launch a Bitcoin futures fund. And more companies are accepting BTC for payment.

    And I just received my Bitcoin Visa rewards card 

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