Foreclosures Are Ticking Up — Here’s What It Actually Means and Why

Foreclosures Are Ticking Up — Here’s What It Actually Means and Why

Real Estate Broker · Northeast PA · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes

Pull up a chair for a minute. You’re going to start hearing more talk about foreclosures again.

Headlines will say things like: “The dam is breaking” -- “A wave is coming”

Let’s slow that down.

What’s Actually Changed

A federal support program that helped some struggling homeowners stay current on their mortgages has been phased out.

That program acted like a cushion. Now that it’s gone and some of that delayed distress is starting to show up.

What the Numbers Are Saying

We are seeing movement:

  • *Foreclosure filings are at a multi-year high
  • *Up roughly 25% year-over-year
  • *Bank repossessions are also increasing

Those are real changes.

But Let’s Keep This Grounded

This is not 2008.

We don’t have:

  • ^The same lending standards
  • ^The same level of over-leverage
  • ^The same widespread risk

Today’s market is different.

What This Means for the Market

When foreclosure activity rises, a few things tend to happen:

  • *More distressed properties enter the pipeline
  • *Some localized price pressure develops
  • *Buyers have a few more options

But it doesn’t happen all at once. It works its way in gradually.

Where It’s Showing Up

This isn’t just one region.

Some Midwestern markets are seeing higher activity right now,
while parts of the Southeast continue to stay active.

It’s uneven — and that matters.

What This Means for Investors

If you’ve been waiting on the sidelines, this may start to open a door.

Not wide open overnight — but slowly.

You may begin to see:

  • +More “fixer” opportunities
  • +More negotiable situations
  • +Less competition at the margin

Kitchen Table Truth

This isn’t a flood.

It’s pressure being released. And pressure doesn’t crash a market, it creates opportunity — for people paying attention.

Simple Way to Think About It

For the last few years, distress was being held back.

Now, some of it is moving forward.

Final Thought

If this trend continues:

  • *Buyers may gain some leverage
  • *Sellers may need to be more realistic
  • *Investors may start seeing opportunities again

This isn’t panic territory. It’s a shift.

And like most shifts in real estate, it rewards the people who understand it early.

Feel free to DM with questions/comments.

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  • Jason WrayPro Member
    Banker · Nationwide · Member since 2020 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    5mo

    Marc,

    I wanted to touch on a few things, One I agree the CARES Act was and has been waiting over the last few months to spike a large number of homes to go into either a "pay back" or Foreclosure.  Although some had a "Foregivable Second" while others had a silent 2nd that has a time clock ready to expire.

    This was spread out accross the US but a good portion of Foreclsoures will be seen in places like Florida, Texas, Alabama, Indiana, Ohio.  Main reason is during COVID hundreds of thousands of people were leaving states like NY, CA, CT, MA, WA, and a few other states coming down to Non mask mandated states.  While there they realized they could buy a home versus rent and based on cost they could buy several!

    The problem is it spiked an artifical market where due to the number of sales during all time low rates property values surged month to month.  To the highest and fastest levels never seen other than the 2004-2007 Market prior to the crash, but that was subprime bad mortgages and adjustable rates!

    If you look at certain cities on a 2018 through 2025 graph in Mid 2023 properties hit the wall and started declining. You had buyers with good credit and able to put 20% down buying investment properties not realizing the rents did not match the sales price so they coud not even get their PITI payment covered. Some started with higher rents and then as property values declined adjacent homes being sold were able to offer lower rents since they were being sold for less.

    Now investors are walking away from their bad decisions and in most cases offering a Deed in Lieu to avoid bad credit and foreclosure.  Take a look at Pinellas County Florida there is a HUGE number of foreclosures, Auctions, Pre-Foreclsoures, Bank approved short sales.  These are good deals as long as the new investor does not play the highest bid game and avoid paying any "Out of Financing" Realtor fee's which are Non-Refundable.  

    Investors need to learn how to run the numbers on thier actual PITI payment prior to getting into a contract and buying a home. This is very easy to do when you use a Seasoned professionals like a Seasoned Realtor Agent to run comps and rents and a Seasoned Banker to run financing and ARV options versus buying turn key and not being able to BRRR or pull cash out unless they wait 5 years.

  • Chris SeveneyBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    5mo

    Want to clarify that defaults are starting to tick up and go back to historical norms, but foreclosures are still at all-time lows due to the equity that homeowners have in their properties. You would need to overlay this information with bankruptcy data, because you will continue to see far fewer foreclosures on longer-owned properties due to equity. Newer or recently purchased homes will have higher foreclosure rates because people are underwater and will just want to walk away. 

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