JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - STATS FOR APRIL ARE IN...

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JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - STATS FOR APRIL ARE IN...

Lesley Resnick
Real Estate Agent · Jacksonville, FL · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes

The numbers are in for Jacksonville's market in April.

You can look at them in 2 ways and I think they are both applicable.

Year to date and monthly performance.

We are behind 2019.  Independent of current circumstances, '20 was forecasted to be weaker than '19.

If you look at month to month, we are relatively stable.  Indicators both up and down.  It was a comparable month to January.  This was not the train wreck most people thought it would be.

I am curious how May goes?

My prediction...As the country wakes up and comes back, May will look similar to April's performance.  It will start off slow and pick up momentum toward the end of the month.

Who else is ready to make a prediction relative to April?  

UP, DOWN OR FLAT? 

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Michele King
Investor · Longmont, CO · Member since 2019 · 46 posts · 23 votes
6y

@Lesley Resnick The $600 bump is a great incentive to not go back to work unfortunately. In the end small business owners like myself will surely get a surprise bill next year from the Unemployment Insurance Fund. We got one in 2009 after they extended benefits for months. At the scale of the current situation this will prove to be painful for business owners beyond what is happening now. Cash reserves are increasing for our portfolio to be safe, but we are still buying and investing. America needs to turn the switch and start the machine again.

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  • Nick ScapellatiPro Member
    Lender · St Augustine, FL · Member since 2019 · 58 posts · 12 votes
    6y

    I think you are right. My prediction is that it will mirror April with relatively little downturn. 

    0Reply
  • Jack Bobeck
    Rental Property Investor · Jacksonville, FL · Member since 2008 · 784 posts · 528 votes
    6y

    Everything depends on unemployment levels. 

    0Reply
  • Larry Fried
    Investor/RE Broker · Eugene, OR · Member since 2014 · 3k+ posts · 968 votes
    6y

    I am hoping you are right, Lesley.  But I tend to think it is all about how this unfolds employment wise.

    0Reply
  • Attila M.
    Investor · Jacksonville, FL · Member since 2016 · 47 posts · 15 votes
    6y

    I think we will go down. Unemployment and uncertainty are not good for the numbers...

    0Reply
  • Philip Moreira
    Investor · Dubai, UAE · Member since 2017 · 4 posts · 0 votes
    6y

    Hi Lesley, 

    We hope you are right with May mirroring April since April wasn't too bad comparatively.  And I've heard of many legitimate small companies getting the PPP money which should help keep their employees (many of which are renters) receiving their normal payroll for 2.5 months.  However, I do know that many "big" companies (like McDonald's franchisees which individually each restaurant has less than 500 employees and thus eligible for the PPP) have absorbed a lot of that money.  The unemployment benefits from CARES is significant as well which should also help renters meet their financial obligations.

    With all that said, however, I am still concerned post-June/July when the PPP 2.5 months of payroll expenses has been exhausted and there still is no cure/treatment/vaccine.  The public will still be social distancing and many industries will still be sluggish to getting back to "breaking-even" levels of activity.  And over 30 million Americans unemployed will have long-lasting effects.  

    Operations is going to be the key moving forward.  Many operators are incentivizing renters to pay on time (or even early) by offering a $25 reduction if they pay on time, for example.  And showing empathy to their renters and working out a payment plan if necessary.  This is definitely a critical time where we must work together and get through this.

    Best of luck to all.

    "The Dubai Couple"

    Phil

    0Reply
  • Lesley Resnick
    OP
    Real Estate Agent · Jacksonville, FL · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    6y

    Like it or hate it, unemployment is not going to be an issue as long as the $600 federal subsidy lasts (7/31).  

    $600 a week is more than many of my tenants make a week.

    The federal $1200 should help as well.

    The real question is how long it will take for the economy to remove the training wheels.

    3Reply
  • Michele King
    Investor · Longmont, CO · Member since 2019 · 46 posts · 23 votes
    6y

    @Lesley Resnick The $600 bump is a great incentive to not go back to work unfortunately. In the end small business owners like myself will surely get a surprise bill next year from the Unemployment Insurance Fund. We got one in 2009 after they extended benefits for months. At the scale of the current situation this will prove to be painful for business owners beyond what is happening now. Cash reserves are increasing for our portfolio to be safe, but we are still buying and investing. America needs to turn the switch and start the machine again.

    1Reply
  • Obadiah Dorsey
    Wholesaler · Jacksonville fl · Member since 2020 · 1 post · 1 vote
    6y

    Michelle that is truth. 

    Great post Leslie 

    1Reply
  • Mark Fries
    Contractor · Jacksonville, FL · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    6y

    @Obadiah Dorsey

    Good to see you on the website Obi!!

    0Reply
  • Samvel Gevorgyan
    Investor · Jacksonville, FL · Member since 2019 · 12 posts · 12 votes
    6y

    As noted by most, the market lacks inventory, practically, in every city within the States. The demand for deals, however has not stopped. If you pay close attention, most investors are switching their focus from high end housing to B/C+/C and C- properties. That makes sense because downsizing would be a common practice for the next few years due to unemployment and unpredictability. At the same time, there is another very unique trend going on that had been present in the past as well - Mass Migration. Expensive cities like LA, San Francisco, San Diego, NY, Miami, etc would keep bleeding middle class Americans who can now work remotely and are not tied up to these places. On the other hand, developing cities such as Jacksonville, Tampa, Boise, Dallas with more favorable economic and tax conditions would see an increase of working class people. Although I do not have a crystal ball, it is my opinion that there would only be recession in certain parts of the country, whereas others would actually see an increase.

    1Reply
  • Nathan Carter
    Rental Property Investor · Boise, ID · Member since 2014 · 49 posts · 36 votes
    6y

    Good analysis @Samvel Gevorgyan I think you are right.  I own properties in two of the developing cities you mentioned and see the same thing. But as you said none of us has a crystal ball, but the signs seem positive.

    0Reply
  • Vladut Bujoreanu
    Rental Property Investor · Jacksonville, FL · Member since 2018 · 50 posts · 10 votes
    6y

    @Samvel Gevorgyan - Mass migration has been a common topic of discussion in the majority of my social groups due to new company policies affecting their telework options. From online articles to my social groups I believe this is something that has a higher probability now of affecting Jacksonville given our city's circumstances. 

    Analytically I'll be following building permits by zone to get an idea of what's going on in our area but if anyone has any other method of analyzing what's really going on in different zip codes by statistics I'd love to hear/see them! 

    0Reply
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