This house barely cash flows. I worry about it being near the peak especially in LV due to the looming recession. With 85k involved in closing, it isn't an ideal time to buy if the market turns against me and I can buy a house with more cash flow in the greater Seattle area even now, where we aren't a service economy like LV.
Buy or wait?
Hello @Jack B.
We just conducted our Q1 Las Vegas Investor Update and below are our findings.
Note that the following data comes from the Las Vegas MLS and is only for properties that conform to our target tenant pool.
Median $/SqFt for Single Family Homes - The $/SqFt continues to rise. We expect the rate to increase towards the end of the year, likely driven by Californians looking for a more cost effective place to live. Already 30% of all sales today are to Californians. Also, we are still 20% below the peak prices of 2006. If you take inflation into account we are about 35% below peak 2006 prices.

Months of Supply - The months supply of properties has risen since late 2018, but still below 3 months where 6 months is considered a balanced market. The effect of the increased supply is that we are seeing increasing ROI and facing less competition from buyers.

Median Days on Market - The median days on market has risen from 12 to about 14 days. Not a significant change. There is still high demand for the type, configuration and price range we target.

Available Conforming Rental Units by Month - There has been steady decline in available rental units over time. This is what is driving up rents (6.6% average increase in 2018) in the property profile we target.

In summary, the real estate market is very strong. Demand for rental properties is outpacing supply resulting in rising rents. We expect demand to increase during the rest of 2019.
Resident Population Growth - 2017 to 2018
Nevada ranks #1 in the US for population growth.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Driver's License Surrenders to Nevada by State for 2018
This shows which states people are moving from.
Source: UNLV CBER
Fastest Job Growth in the Nation
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (December 2018 vs. December 2017)
Fastest Personal Income Growth
This shows that the jobs being created are not low end jobs. They pay well and the wages are increasing with the current jobs.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (Q2 2018 vs. Q3 2018)
Fastest House Price Appreciation
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (Q3 2017 vs. Q3 2018)
New Home Median Price - Median new home price is $410,000 which is well above the sweet spot for renters. The price of new homes is largely driven by the high cost of land, which is in short supply. Resales will still be the pool for investment properties and will not be diluted by new homes.
Major projects are big drivers of the future economy for Las Vegas. In the 2000 to 2010 era, there was a push to add hotel rooms. The problem was that it was effectively a zero sum game since there were no new attractions added to draw more visitors. This has completely changed in the last few years in that new attractions are being added instead of simply hotel rooms. The nature of Las Vegas has changed too. Until only a few years ago Las Vegas was just "Sin City", a great vacation destination. Today it has changed into a great place to live with endless entertainment, affordable housing and low cost of living. Below are some of the major projects currently under construction (not just planning):
There are many other projects underway but the above are the largest we know of. Any one of the above projects would be huge for a 2.2M population city. These projects will create a large number of additional well paying jobs which will attract even more people to Las Vegas.
Not many people realize that Las Vegas is an island surrounded by federal land. Approximately 84% of all land in Nevada and 87% of Clark County (in which Las Vegas is located) is owned by the federal government. See the map below for what has happened between 1984 and 2016. Note that 2017 and 2018 were huge growth years for Las Vegas so even less land is available now.

Since there is limited room for expansion, Las Vegas will not have urban sprawl, the only growth path is redevelopment. This is a huge advantage for investors. In most cities, urban sprawl leaves formerly desirable areas "behind" and they tend to decline with increased crime and falling rents and prices. Not the case for Las Vegas:
The current market is strong and we expect it to get stronger as 2019 progresses. A significant number of Californians are already moving to Las Vegas and the 2018 Tax Act will drive more people to look for a more affordable place to live. The lack of room for expansion almost guarantees prices will continue to rise as more and more people bid for the limited number of available properties. Las Vegas remains an outstanding investment location for the foreseeable future.
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/08... just came out today.
July 2019 data.
California Bay Area housing price have dropped back to June 2017 level already, prices from two years ago...
What does it spell out?
We are at the top of the cycle already, it begin spreading...
According to July 2019 data, San Jose has the biggest deceleration #1 price drop, San Francisco is #2 biggest deceleration price drop, and Las Vegas is #3 biggest deceleration price drop from July 2018 to July 2019.
You need to change the words “deceleration price drop”. They are VERY MISLEADING. Since vegas lead the nation in price APPRECIATION % last month, year over year. MAYBE you meant the price appreciation is slowing?
Too many people are going to misinterpret your words to mean prices are actually dropping. (Maybe they are in San Jose and San Francisco, but that means the inclusion of Vegas even more misleading. But that also means the “third worst market” still had prices climbing 5% year over year.)
San Jose and San Francisco are market among themselves. Hard to compare a market where tech average house costs a million and 1.4 million. To the rest of the country someone once said all real estate is local
I can only speak to Las Vegas and Minneapolis prices which continue to climb and properties continue to sell instantly with a shortage of inventory. But the million dollar house is the exception there
You need to change the words “deceleration price drop”. They are VERY MISLEADING. Since vegas lead the nation in price APPRECIATION % last month, year over year. MAYBE you meant the price appreciation is slowing?
Too many people are going to misinterpret your words to mean prices are actually dropping. (Maybe they are in San Jose and San Francisco, but that means the inclusion of Vegas even more misleading. But that also means the “third worst market” still had prices climbing 5% year over year.)
San Jose and San Francisco are market among themselves. Hard to compare a market where tech average house costs a million and 1.4 million. To the rest of the country someone once said all real estate is local
I can only speak to Las Vegas and Minneapolis prices which continue to climb and properties continue to sell instantly with a shortage of inventory. But the million dollar house is the exception there
Yeah but he is right overall, Seattle dropped over 100K last summer. Inventory in LV and Seattle is coming online fast. The market seems to be correcting...
Thats the problem though. The wording made it sound like prices were dropping in Vegas his “3rd worst city” but they’re increasing. So apparently the 3rd worst market is up 5% yoy.
Ps. Seattle prices didn’t drop $100k “last summer” they dropped $35k on average (5%)and 90% of that is because 1 bedroom properties dropped from $490k to $420k. (15%)
https://www.trulia.com/real_es...
And Las Vegas inventory is actually down from last month. Hardly “coming online fast” it continues to hover at a 3 months supply, when six months is considered balanced.
https://www.movoto.com/las-veg...
Seattle new listings are down 10% and there’s less than a 2 month supply of properties
https://seattlebubble.com/blog...
There’s so much recency bias that people are seeing a reduction from massive growth to just fast growth as a crash. I assume most of them don’t remember 20 years of 2-3% appreciation being normal. 60-90 days to sell being normal. 6-7 months of inventory being normal. Best and final offers being very rare.
I understand some of it is probably well meant but how many years do we let someone predict the next recession. I was buying during the recession, in Las Vegas, at 1/2 the price of 6 months earlier and people would ask if I wasn’t afraid of the next crash and prices dropping in half again? With a straight face they were predicting that 2000sf houses that rented for $1200/mo and were less than 5 years old would drop to $50k. When I told them I’d buy twice as many then they just had a blank stare.
During the “Great Recession” the median us house fell a little less than 20%, $257k to $208k. That was probably a once in a lifetime event. Of course there will be bigger drops in California, always has been, probably always will be. of course there will be bigger drops in high tax dead zones, but prices will be going up in other cities.
Sorry to rant, but so many post their experiences or observations as “the real estate market” and when someone else posts their experiences it’s just dismissed. Or someone posts a “fact” they heard somewhere and want to believe.
If you plan to sell in the next 5-10 years, sell now, you probably won’t lose much. But if your plan was to hold for 20 years today is as bad a day to sell as last year or next year.
Ps. I just saw how long this post is and I’m astounded. I’ve often wondered how people write such long posts sorry for any time wasted.
Yes, I agree not to sell it only if you plan to hold it for more than 20 years.
Yes, I agree to Sell it today if you plan to sell it in the next 10 years.
I don’t plan on hold it for another 5 to 10 years, too many unknown at today top of the cycle, so today is the best time for me to sell it.
There's a saying in flipping, "You can buy right and do everything wrong, and make money; you can also buy wrong and do everything right, and lose money." I think this is true in Buy and Hold as well if you think of buying right and wrong in terms of where in the cycle you buy.
Not sure whether you bought or not. When you put this question on forum six months ago, the LV median SFR in Feb'19 was $296,200. Now, in Aug'19, SFR median home is $305k. Roughly went up $9k since you posted question.
Hindsight is 20/20.
Terry
Not sure whether you bought or not. When you put this question on forum six months ago, the LV median SFR in Feb'19 was $296,200. Now, in Aug'19, SFR median home is $305k. Roughly went up $9k since you posted question.
Hindsight is 20/20.
Terry
In the short sighted view yes. It went up ONE year. If it goes down the next year or the next 5 years then you have to wait for another 6 years for it to regain it's original purchase price, you lost big time, and selling it if it goes up after one year then goes down is a net loss in general, especially after factoring in transaction costs.
We've had a 10 year bull economy, the longest in history. Supply is out pacing demand. Vegas got hit hard last time, it's not a tech economy, it's frankly a blue collar service economy. When it crashes it crashes hard.
Yeah, prices have gone down in Vegas more than 4% once in it’s history. I’d keep waiting. Maybe prices Will crater 20% back to 2017 prices. Probably not, but at least then you don’t have to do anything.
Since you don’t want to invest during a bull market you’ll probably really want to invest during a recession and time it perfectly, not buying while it’s still going down and not waiting until it’s come back up.
@Terry Lao
I remember Terry used to post his Las Vegas Median price prediction long time ago.
My prediction on Las Vegas Median price is:
Median price:
$297k, Sep 2018, past history.
$295k, Oct 2018, past history.
$295k, Nov 2018, past history.
$290k, Dec 2018, past history.
$300k, Jan 2019, past history.
$295k, Feb 2019, past history.
$300k, Mar 2019, past history.
$300k, Apr 2019, past history.
$300k, May 2019, past history.
$300k, Jun 2019, past history.
$303k, Jul 2019, past history.
$305k, Aug 2019, past history.
$305k, Sep 2019, predict future, 2.7% increase
$300k, Oct 2019, predict future, 1.7% increase
$300k, Nov 2019, predict future, 1.7% increase
$295k, Dec 2019, predict future, 1.7% increase
$295k, Jan 2020, predict future, -1.7% decrease
$290k, Feb 2020, predict future, -1.7% decrease
$290k, Mar 2020, predict future, -3.33% decrease
Yeah, prices have gone down in Vegas more than 4% once in it’s history. I’d keep waiting. Maybe prices Will crater 20% back to 2017 prices. Probably not, but at least then you don’t have to do anything.
Since you don’t want to invest during a bull market you’ll probably really want to invest during a recession and time it perfectly, not buying while it’s still going down and not waiting until it’s come back up.
Chart to back this 4% claim up?
This will gives you the last 32 years, probably enough, especially for vegas, but after that you’ll have to google “las vegas median home price 19xx” for each year you want to check.
Don’t fall for the red line that looks close to a 3 or 4% drop occasionally. That line is inflation adjusted, Sometimes it goes down even when prices go up, use the blue line or click on download spreadsheet button.
Tons of great information in this thread! Thanks to everyone who has taken the time to post data.
Everything I see here relates to SFR, but do any of the locals know the appreciation numbers for 2-4U multifamily? I've been looking at Vegas as a new market and I currently see a lot of quads for roughly $400K. That's dirt cheap for where I live, but I'm curious if that's kind of par for the course in Vegas. In doing some research I think some are in rough areas, so that's probably one factor.
Thanks in advance.
Chad, I don’t think anyone’s put more study in to it and will have a snap answer for you than @Terry Lao.
They don’t fit my model. Older buildings with flat roofs, farther from my ideal locations.
Chad, I don’t think anyone’s put more study in to it and will have a snap answer for you than @Terry Lao.
They don’t fit my model. Older buildings with flat roofs, farther from my ideal locations.
Thanks for the info, Bill!
Sep'19 SFR median home price at 310k. This was a pleasant surprise. As it's fall already, and spring/summer was a disappointment. I'm sure it had to do with interest rates falling sharply. Only $5k from high of $315k set in Jun'06.
Terry
| 2018 | 9 | 13.2% | $ 35,000 | $ 300,000 | 5 | Actual Sep'18 |
| 2018 | 10 | 12.2% | $ 32,025 | $ 295,025 | -5 | Actual Oct'18 |
| 2018 | 11 | 13.0% | $ 33,850 | $ 295,000 | 0 | Actual Nov'18 |
| 2018 | 12 | 10.2% | $ 27,350 | $ 295,250 | 0.25 | Actual Dec'18 |
| 2019 | 1 | 13.2% | $ 35,000 | $ 300,000 | 5 | Actual Jan'19 |
| 2019 | 2 | 7.7% | $ 21,200 | $ 296,200 | -3.8 | Actual Feb'19 |
| 2019 | 3 | 7.1% | $ 20,000 | $ 300,000 | 3.8 | Actual Mar'19 |
| 2019 | 4 | 3.8% | $ 11,000 | $ 300,000 | 0 | Actual Apr'19 |
| 2019 | 5 | 1.7% | $ 5,000 | $ 300,000 | 0 | Actual May'19 |
| 2019 | 6 | 4.8% | $ 14,000 | $ 304,000 | 4 | Actual Jun'19 |
| 2019 | 7 | 4.5% | $ 13,000 | $ 303,000 | -1 | Actual Jul'19 |
| 2019 | 8 | 3.4% | $ 10,000 | $ 305,000 | 2 | Actual Aug'19 |
| 2019 | 9 | 3.3% | $ 10,000 | $ 310,000 | 5 | Actual Sep'19 |
| 2019 | 10 | 5.8% | $ 16,975 | $ 312,000 | 2 | |
| 2019 | 11 | 6.4% | $ 19,000 | $ 314,000 | 2 | |
| 2019 | 12 | 7.0% | $ 20,750 | $ 316,000 | 2 |
@Bill B. great comments
@Terry Lao adjusted for inflation, we are still roughly 8-10% below peak values, correct?
I’m very active in Las Vegas market (buying, selling, and brokering). Every single transaction I see has a highly qualified buyer with cash and/or solid credit and solid employment. Couldn’t say that in ‘06.
What will cause the next recession? My answer (and that of several economists): anything but real estate.
Lastly, a fun fact: in 3 out of the last 5 recessions, national real estate prices went up. Once, they decreased by 1.5%. And, once, well, we all know what happened.
Source: Keeping Current Matters (paid subscription, so no link)
@Eric Fernwood thank you for the very informative comment. This has helped me learn a lot and I’m very excited about my forthcoming investments
Certain neighborhood prices in Las Vegas have dropped almost 27% last 8 months already from Feb 2019 to Oct 2019.
From MLS Records:
$148,900 sold 2/12/19: 45 Maleena Mesa St #1117
$145,000 sold 7/19/19: 45 Maleena Mesa St #1127
$132,000 sold 8/7/19: 45 Maleena Mesa St #713
$131,188 sold 9/11/19: 45 Maleena Mesa St #1017
$115,500 sold 10/7/19: 45 Maleena Mesa St #716
$151,500 sold 4/19/19: 231 Horizon Ridge #215
$140,500 sold 6/21/19: 231 Horizon Ridge #914
$125,500 sold 8/30/19: 231 Horizon Ridge #2113
$130,000 sold 9/13/19: 231 Horizon Ridge #424
$129,500 sold 10/8/19: 231 Horizon Ridge #1025
$119,000 Now Asking: 231 Horizon Ridge #1215
$150,000 sold 3/22/19: 2300 Silverado #1131
$158,700 sold 7/5/19: 2300 Silverado #2051
$120,000 sold 8/6/19: 2300 Silverado #2019
$116,400 sold 8/19/19: 2300 Silverado #2079
The Realtor, Chong Miller Group, has a good knowledge in the video about the Las Vegas October 2019 median home sale price.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XK4NlJs_IGE
I like the video.
@Bill B. - love your posts and completely agree. A lot of recency bias and media sensationalism. The "hype" of a massive correction is probably having a bigger effect on the market than anything else.
Successful investors are able to make progress in any market condition. You can't sit on the sidelines and wait until the once-in-a-lifetime 20-40% drop.
"Waiting" is never really a good strategy. You need to be active in all cycles to be relevant in down cycles and to have a pulse on what's going on. If you're not active in the market, by the time you know there is good opportunity it will be too late.
Well thank you, @Chris Anderson, you are officially the Debbie Downer of real estate investing. However to answer the original question, my answer to you is, a little common sense can go a long way. In real estate, it can move mountains.
No matter what happens to the market, the reality is people are always going to need a home. Whether they are buying or renting, the question you need to ask yourself is, do I have the time and funding, to invest in property?
If you want to know whether it’s a good decision, you need to ask yourself, what your willing to do to the property to take it from “as is” to something that deserves someone’s hard earned money. Stop worrying about statistics and hear say, because when you have something valuable, at the end of the day, there will always be people who can afford it.
Just because there was a recession, didn’t stop homes from selling, what it did do was, scare everyone into lowering the price of their homes, and allowed smart men to capitalize on fear. I know of one, who bought as many as 9 properties, which now pay for themselves, as well as his mortgage, for a beautiful single story home in 89052.
If you don’t have the time and money to put into your investment, then don’t even call it an investment, call that a gamble. But those who take the time and energy into making the home better than they found it, who truly understands what an “upgrade” is, ”the process of replacing a something, with a newer version of Itself.”
Something that changes the original structure, not a home that came with better floor plans than the default options, those are just enhancements, not upgrades.
So basically, what I’m getting at is take care of your ****, when you rent it out, stop hiring these stupid property management groups, you don’t pay them enough to give a ****.
If you want to sell your home and get more than you paid, then your going to need to do more to it than the way you received it, or at least properly maintain and modernize it. If you don’t live in vegas, then plan to stop in regularly, speak to the renter yourself, because guess what?
When leaks happen, or **** blows up in your yards, your high and mighty management group is slow to respond, some of them illegally make up the rules as they go along.
Ac blows and they have your tenant in their 4 days, in 110 degree weather. They’re lucky tenants often don’t know their rights. Honestly if you’ve read this far on, and had even the slightest hesitation, follow your instincts, your not cut out to deal with the complexities of all of this quite yet.
Really what you should be considering is it’s all one big gamble, if you can’t just write this loss off, and your depending on this for money, but not willing to lift a finger, not willing to do the research then steer clear of vegas. Go purchase a brick house on the west part of Chicago, rent that out, it will definitely stand longer, with little to know effort.
Don’t put your money in styrofoam, chicken wired houses, slapped together with glue and painted, hardened oatmeal. For whatever reason, is so expensive to repair, yet the materials couldn’t have cost a fraction of the labor expenses.
The hardest part should be deciding where to buy, and I can tell you based on zip code alone whether your investments going to disappoint you now or later on. The depreciation factor is extremely obvious, just take a peek at a crime map once in a while.
I understand putting your money into something, you fear might not pan out, may cause you some internal conflict, but do your homework, consider articles on what’s appreciated, based on zip codes.
Make sure the home you buy, is not in a ******** area, (an area of town, surrounded by other ****** communities).
Don't be influenced by fear propaganda, you're only making their efforts validated. Don't put all your focus into what is being blogged and figure **** out for yourself. Easiest way to do this is, contact a realtor, have them look at the MLS, they can tell you which zip codes are really selling property and which aren't.
Keep in mind their are parts of town which are up and coming, and others older, who can’t hide what has happened. Visit the property with an inspector, have them check the property for any signs of flood damage or traces of a flood, around the entire circumference of the home.
If you have zero friends or confidantes in this town, who can pass by a rental once a month, I'd really advise against renting, your hired management group, will still get fined if they don't assess HOA complaints, which will turn to liens on your property.
There communities in town which have boycotted homes purchased with the intent to rent it out. So just be sure, your not buying into one. And good luck to you.
| YEAR.. 2018 | MONTH.. Sep | FromOneYearAgo.. 13.2% | FromOneYearAgo.. $ 35,000. | LV MedianPrice.. $ 300,000.. | ...... Actual | |
| 2018 | Oct | 12.2% | $ 32,025. | $ 295,025.. | Actual | |
| 2018 | Nov | 13.0% | $ 33,850. | $ 295,000.. | Actual | |
| 2018 | Dec | 10.2% | $ 27,350. | $ 295,250.. | Actual | |
| 2019 | Jan | 13.2% | $ 35,000. | $ 300,000.. | Actual | |
| 2019 | Feb | 7.7% | $ 21,200. | $ 296,200.. | Actual | |
| 2019 | Mar | 7.1% | $ 20,000. | $ 300,000.. | Actual | |
| 2019 | Apr | 3.8% | $ 11,000. | $ 300,000.. | Actual | |
| 2019 | May | 1.7% | $ 5,000. | $ 300,000.. | Actual | |
| 2019 | Jun | 4.8% | $ 14,000. | $ 304,000.. | Actual | |
| 2019 | Jul | 4.5% | $ 13,000. | $ 303,000.. | Actual | |
| 2019 | Aug | 3.4% | $ 10,000. | $ 305,000.. | Actual | |
| 2019 | Sep | 3.3% | $ 10,000. | $ 310,000.. | Actual | |
| 2019 | Oct | 4.0% | $ 11,975. | $ 307,000.. | Actual | |
| 2019 | Nov | 3.0% | $ 9,000. | $ 304,000.. | ||
| 2019 2020 | Dec Jan | 3.8% - 0.7% | $ 11,000. - $2,000. | $ 301,000.. $ 298,000.. |
Terry and I (on opposite sides) like to post Las Vegas Median Home Price estimate.