Who do you think will win: Zillow, Trulia, or ????

Denver, CO · Member since 2013 · 409 posts · 105 votes

It is my belief that in the next few years a nationwide multipurpose real estate website will evolve to become a major player in real estate sales. At first augmenting, but eventually displacing local Multiple Listing Service websites. I see this service site enjoying kind of a natural monopoly similar to Facebook, Google, Amazon or Linkedin. Currently I know of two such candidates that exist for this role, Zillow and Trulia, both are publicly traded companies. There are probably other players in this arena I don't know about. I expect one will become the Facebook of Real Estate, and that the others will become the myspaces and etoys of Real Estate. I do not use either site much myself since I use a local Denver Realtor site.

My question is for those that have used Zillow and Trulia a good deal, (or brand x I don't know about). Is one site stronger, better, more useful, more reliable, etc.. than the other? My question relates to my desire to make a stock purchase of one of these companies (yes, I know that I am allowed to purchase more than one).

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Pat L.

Rental Property Investor · Upstate, NY · Member since 2012 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes

12y

@John Rooster

I don't use either for valid REI info but if you want to make money in stocks this is the area my BIL is touting...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-09/pot-shares-rally-21-to-1-700-as-speculators-see-green.html

Nothing like buying (when) HIGH & mellowing out for profits before they go up in 'smoke' like most penny stocks have in the past....& you can say you bought it but didn't inhale...:)

BUT given the low initial investment it could generate surprising results....

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John Rooster
OP
Denver, CO · Member since 2013 · 409 posts · 105 votes
12y
Originally posted by @Patrick Connell:

Well, what do you think of the various opinions you've gotten so far?

My overall long term view point has not changed. From my view point, the only two serious players in the market are Trulia and Zillow. I think they are both fairly valued relative to each other, and would buy similar amounts of each. I would bet that one will buy out the other in the next couple years. I think the entire internet stock sector is set for a pullback, and will wait for said pullback before buying.
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John Rooster
OP
Denver, CO · Member since 2013 · 409 posts · 105 votes
12y
Originally posted by @Joe Delia:

Originally posted by @John Rooster:

Not only is a doable its being done already.

If there is a metro area that Zillow and Trulia can not service because they are being stonewalled by the local MLS please name it. I would like to research this more.
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Patrick Connell
REALTOR® · Bastrop, TX · Member since 2013 · 324 posts · 191 votes
12y
Originally posted by @John Rooster:

Originally posted by @Bryan L.:
@John Rooster - It has already begun. There are some MLSes who have already stopped sending data to zillow et al. And many others who are considering it. And many brokers as well (both large and small). There will be a big fight over this. I wouldn't buy their stock (or trulia's).

I understand that an agent can technically not check the box that forwards the listing to Zillow/Trulia/et al, BUT that seems to me to be a violation of the agent's duty to their client. In almost all situations, the client is best served by having the listing forwarded to other data bases, imo any agent that does not check that box (without the express consent of the client) is violating their Realtor duty to their client.

John,

Bryan wasn't referencing individual agents, what he meant by "MLS's" is the individual REALTOR Boards and managing MLS companies. For example, in Austin, I am about to lose the ability to even select whether or not I want to syndicate the listing. This has nothing to do with the individual agents and has everything to do with the MLS System disallowing syndication.

Also, the most important part of doing comparables is the price the property sold for. This data has never, to my knowledge, been syndicated to the other companies, only the initial listings. That's one of the reasons they're horrible for comps because they do a lot of guessing or using unreliable databases; i.e. tax rolls.
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Patrick Connell
REALTOR® · Bastrop, TX · Member since 2013 · 324 posts · 191 votes
12y
Originally posted by @John Rooster:

Originally posted by @Patrick Connell:

Well, what do you think of the various opinions you've gotten so far?

My overall long term view point has not changed. From my view point, the only two serious players in the market are Trulia and Zillow. I think they are both fairly valued relative to each other, and would buy similar amounts of each. I would bet that one will buy out the other in the next couple years. I think the entire internet stock sector is set for a pullback, and will wait for said pullback before buying.

Solid Strategy.
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Patrick Connell
REALTOR® · Bastrop, TX · Member since 2013 · 324 posts · 191 votes
12y
Originally posted by @John Rooster:

Originally posted by @Joe Delia:

Originally posted by @John Rooster:

Not only is a doable its being done already.

If there is a metro area that Zillow and Trulia can not service because they are being stonewalled by the local MLS please name it. I would like to research this more.

Austin, starting May 1.

A piece of a newsletter sent out a month ago from ABOR:

"Last week, the ABoR Board of Directors voted to return decisions regarding listings syndication to brokers by agreeing to terminate ABoR’s relationship with ListHub after April 30, 2014, and stated its intention to cease facilitating the syndication of members’ listing data to non-REALTOR® consumer websites. After April 30, 2014, brokers will choose independently whether to provide data to non-REALTOR® consumer websites on a case-by-case basis as dictated by clients’ and agents’ best interests."
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Bryan L.
Residential Real Estate Agent · Cookeville, TN · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 948 votes
12y
@John Rooster - John, I also choose not to advertise my client's home with a Super Bowl ad. Seems like that would be in their best interest though as it would surely sell very quickly if I were to do so.
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John Rooster
OP
Denver, CO · Member since 2013 · 409 posts · 105 votes
12y
Originally posted by @Patrick Connell:

Originally posted by @John Rooster:

Originally posted by @Joe Delia:

Originally posted by @John Rooster:

Not only is a doable its being done already.

If there is a metro area that Zillow and Trulia can not service because they are being stonewalled by the local MLS please name it. I would like to research this more.

Austin, starting May 1.

A piece of a newsletter sent out a month ago from ABOR:

"Last week, the ABoR Board of Directors voted to return decisions regarding listings syndication to brokers by agreeing to terminate ABoR’s relationship with ListHub after April 30, 2014, and stated its intention to cease facilitating the syndication of members listing data to non-REALTOR consumer websites. After April 30, 2014, brokers will choose independently whether to provide data to non-REALTOR consumer websites on a case-by-case basis as dictated by clients and agents best interests."

Thank You. Something with the fonts makes it read odd, I edited to make it more readable

This isn't stonewalling this is just delegating the authority for deciding to syndicate the listing to the Broker/Agent. Which is the way it is in Denver, and probably most markets, currently. Which brings me back to the point I made earlier.... The agent deciding not syndicate the listing would be, in almost all situations, a dis-service to the home owner. To not syndicate the listing would be a violation of the Agent's duty. No?
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John Rooster
OP
Denver, CO · Member since 2013 · 409 posts · 105 votes
12y
Originally posted by @Bryan L.:
@John Rooster - John, I also choose not to advertise my client's home with a Super Bowl ad. Seems like that would be in their best interest though as it would surely sell very quickly if I were to do so.

There would be a sizable fee associated with a super bowl ad, if I were an agent I would agree to provide such a listing to my client if he/she paid said fee. Is there a sizable fee associated with checking the box to syndicate the listing?
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Account Closed
Multi-family Investor · Austin, TX · Member since 2008 · 17 posts · 0 votes
12y
At least in Austin, redfin will give you when a property sold, and for how much.

That's much closer to getting comps than trulia or zillow.

It's not in the client's best interest to provide sold data (since they already sold the property, they should not care). But it's in the agent's best interest NOT to provide the sold data, because then non-realtors will have a hard time doing their own comps.
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Patrick Connell
REALTOR® · Bastrop, TX · Member since 2013 · 324 posts · 191 votes
12y
John Rooster I disagree. There is nothing to support that Zillow, et al sells homes faster or for a better price. While it is true that a large majority of home buyers start their search online, a large majority still use an agent when purchasing. Any agent will have access to the local MLS and therefore the home. There are some agents with such a vast network they sell the home before even hitting the MLS.
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Bryan L.
Residential Real Estate Agent · Cookeville, TN · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 948 votes
12y
@John Rooster Somewhere, somehow I'm paying to have that listing on Zillow. It's either built into my MLS fees, or built into the cut my broker takes from my commissions. But there's no way that it's free.
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Joe Delia
Involved In Real Estate · Rochester Hills, MI · Member since 2010 · 812 posts · 178 votes
12y
Originally posted by @Bryan L.:
@John Rooster Somewhere, somehow I'm paying to have that listing on Zillow. It's either built into my MLS fees, or built into the cut my broker takes from my commissions. But there's no way that it's free.

You're not paying for it, you're having business stolen because of it.
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David Krulac
Mechanicsburg, PA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
12y
@John Rooster

Zillow and all the other sites use a math formula based on assessment values, recent sales in the same zip code, and average values in the same zip code to come up with a value.

The accuracy of such data varies tremendously. I've seen $25,000 houses valued on Zillow for $250,000 because they were located in a higher priced zip code. In larger cities zip codes can cover a pretty small area, whereas in less densely populated areas zip codes could cover miles and miles of properties.

In a subdivision where there are 500 houses all built by the same builder at the same time and have the same square footage, Zillow values tend to be very accurate; other places not so much. If you rely on Zillow values or any other random math formula, someday it will bite you.
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Sam Leon
Investor · Fort Lauderdale, FL · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 465 votes
12y
Originally posted by @Patrick Connell:

Originally posted by @John Rooster:

Originally posted by @Joe Delia:

Originally posted by @John Rooster:

Not only is a doable its being done already.

If there is a metro area that Zillow and Trulia can not service because they are being stonewalled by the local MLS please name it. I would like to research this more.

Austin, starting May 1.

A piece of a newsletter sent out a month ago from ABOR:

"Last week, the ABoR Board of Directors voted to return decisions regarding listings syndication to brokers by agreeing to terminate ABoR’s relationship with ListHub after April 30, 2014, and stated its intention to cease facilitating the syndication of members’ listing data to non-REALTOR® consumer websites. After April 30, 2014, brokers will choose independently whether to provide data to non-REALTOR® consumer websites on a case-by-case basis as dictated by clients’ and agents’ best interests."

That is interesting to see how this goes moving forward, if more and more are choosing not to syndicate.

First, I believe it affects much more than just sites like zillow, trulia, realtytrac etc...many of the brokerage owned web sites with a "Find my home" or "Search for home" button would be crippled or fragmented in the same manner. The sites like Floridahomes.com, Weichert.com, Remax.com etc...and a whole bunch others I believe used the same technology to mine the data for their search engines. Their clients wanting to do their own preliminary searches and once they zero in on a half dozen of homes they contact the realtors to arrange visits and personal services, these clients would have hit and miss access to what's available.

Second, and as someone who have architected a few commercial engineering automation systems in the past, this will not really stop anything. All it does is it will cost zillow or trulia more to get the same data. Instead of being able to have direct access via listhub to the listing data, all they have to do is to pay a realtor with access to perform automated searches at a regular interval and get the electronic search results. I am pretty sure many of you set up searches for your clients, based on price range, how many bed, bath, location, pool, garage etc...and your clients get email digests with new changes immediately, every day, twice a week etc? Well they could arrange for the same search with no filter at all to be created, so they get updates on new listings, status changes by email. Then all they need to do is to write a simple parser to follow the pattern of these information in the email updates and aggregate into their database. It won't stop anything, These are road blocks that can be easily overcome.

Third, I believe these sites are investing heavily into property rentals, an area where the information source is not so dominated by mls like sales. In rental you have a lot of property that's listed organically on these web sites, who syndicate to each other, as well as Craigslist and many other hybrid marketplace/social web sites. Not being able to get rental listing data from mls will cause a further fragmentation for landlords and renters. Craigslist is already an island by itself as it doesn't allow syndication. Now if a renter goes to a site like zillow to look for rental availability they don't care if the property may be on mls, on zillow, or syndicated from somewhere. If they now need to go to CL, then to an agent to look for mls listed rentals, and to zillow or trulia to look for the rest of them, it's more hassle for the end consumers. I could be wrong I think in this case they would look at zillow and CL listings first, then the mls listed rentals last as that may be the least convenient.

There's probably more impacts than what I listed those are just some that's off the top of my head.
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Bryan L.
Residential Real Estate Agent · Cookeville, TN · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 948 votes
12y
Back to the OP, I think the real question should be "Zillow, Trulia, et al or the Realtors". Realtors, brokers, NAR, etc are not going to sit back on their haunches and let Zillow take over the industry without a fight.
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Joe Delia
Involved In Real Estate · Rochester Hills, MI · Member since 2010 · 812 posts · 178 votes
12y
Originally posted by @Sam Leon:

Originally posted by @Patrick Connell:

Originally posted by @John Rooster:

Originally posted by @Joe Delia:

Originally posted by @John Rooster:

Not only is a doable its being done already.

If there is a metro area that Zillow and Trulia can not service because they are being stonewalled by the local MLS please name it. I would like to research this more.

Austin, starting May 1.

A piece of a newsletter sent out a month ago from ABOR:

"Last week, the ABoR Board of Directors voted to return decisions regarding listings syndication to brokers by agreeing to terminate ABoR’s relationship with ListHub after April 30, 2014, and stated its intention to cease facilitating the syndication of members’ listing data to non-REALTOR® consumer websites. After April 30, 2014, brokers will choose independently whether to provide data to non-REALTOR® consumer websites on a case-by-case basis as dictated by clients’ and agents’ best interests."

That is interesting to see how this goes moving forward, if more and more are choosing not to syndicate.

First, I believe it affects much more than just sites like zillow, trulia, realtytrac etc...many of the brokerage owned web sites with a "Find my home" or "Search for home" button would be crippled or fragmented in the same manner. The sites like Floridahomes.com, Weichert.com, Remax.com etc...and a whole bunch others I believe used the same technology to mine the data for their search engines. Their clients wanting to do their own preliminary searches and once they zero in on a half dozen of homes they contact the realtors to arrange visits and personal services, these clients would have hit and miss access to what's available.

Second, and as someone who have architected a few commercial engineering automation systems in the past, this will not really stop anything. All it does is it will cost zillow or trulia more to get the same data. Instead of being able to have direct access via listhub to the listing data, all they have to do is to pay a realtor with access to perform automated searches at a regular interval and get the electronic search results. I am pretty sure many of you set up searches for your clients, based on price range, how many bed, bath, location, pool, garage etc...and your clients get email digests with new changes immediately, every day, twice a week etc? Well they could arrange for the same search with no filter at all to be created, so they get updates on new listings, status changes by email. Then all they need to do is to write a simple parser to follow the pattern of these information in the email updates and aggregate into their database. It won't stop anything, These are road blocks that can be easily overcome.

Third, I believe these sites are investing heavily into property rentals, an area where the information source is not so dominated by mls like sales. In rental you have a lot of property that's listed organically on these web sites, who syndicate to each other, as well as Craigslist and many other hybrid marketplace/social web sites. Not being able to get rental listing data from mls will cause a further fragmentation for landlords and renters. Craigslist is already an island by itself as it doesn't allow syndication. Now if a renter goes to a site like zillow to look for rental availability they don't care if the property may be on mls, on zillow, or syndicated from somewhere. If they now need to go to CL, then to an agent to look for mls listed rentals, and to zillow or trulia to look for the rest of them, it's more hassle for the end consumers. I could be wrong I think in this case they would look at zillow and CL listings first, then the mls listed rentals last as that may be the least convenient.

There's probably more impacts than what I listed those are just some that's off the top of my head.

I don't think it would have any impact on sites like "realliving.com".
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John Rooster
OP
Denver, CO · Member since 2013 · 409 posts · 105 votes
12y
Originally posted by @Sam Leon:

Second, and as someone who have architected a few commercial engineering automation systems in the past, this will not really stop anything. All it does is it will cost zillow or trulia more to get the same data. Instead of being able to have direct access via listhub to the listing data, all they have to do is to pay a realtor with access to perform automated searches at a regular interval and get the electronic search results. I am pretty sure many of you set up searches for your clients, based on price range, how many bed, bath, location, pool, garage etc...and your clients get email digests with new changes immediately, every day, twice a week etc? Well they could arrange for the same search with no filter at all to be created, so they get updates on new listings, status changes by email. Then all they need to do is to write a simple parser to follow the pattern of these information in the email updates and aggregate into their database. It won't stop anything, These are road blocks that can be easily overcome.

Thank you for this. I was thinking this was possible, but was not sure.
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Patrick Connell
REALTOR® · Bastrop, TX · Member since 2013 · 324 posts · 191 votes
12y
@Sam Leon the push by NAR is to suspend syndication; most are moving forward, have already done so, or are currently discussing it.

In regards to your other stuff, first, none of the other websites will be affected. Home search engines that appear on agent/brokerage websites, realtor.com, etc. all use IDX plug-ins which are directly linked to the MLS. Those folks pay a fee each month for access to the info. However, the access it only for basic information and only includes property that's available. You can't use those systems to narrow down your search beyond price, location, beds, baths, etc. and you definitely can't research sold listings or any other data.

Second, you're correct that it increase cost and decrease turn-around time on updating the data. However, the MLS systems will get word of this and just institute restrictions with VERY stiff penalties for any agent or broker who shares information with third-party listing agencies. The information stored and tracked on MLS is entirely owned by the MLS and the way information is distributed is up to them. I know of no agent that would risk losing access entirely or being fined significantly just to share information.

Finally, the rental market is still heavily tracked by the LMS (leasing management service), which is the MLS for rentals. You can pull comps and data the same way as the MLS. And, while there are many more people who lease their properties without an agent than FSBO, a lot of folks use them because they don't want to deal with it.
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Sam Leon
Investor · Fort Lauderdale, FL · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 465 votes
12y
Patrick,

Thanks for the information. I didn't know these other sites use a different conduit to get at the information.

If there is a movement to stop syndication altogether, as well as like you said, some regulations put in place to stop any data to be used by sites such as zillow. trulia, redfin etc...it would be very interesting to see how this evolve.

To me, at the end of the day it is still to provide products and services to your clients to get their home sold, and if getting the maximum exposure is important, then this movement is heading in the opposite direction.

Back in the 90s I was involved in a project where all the states highway authorities were heavily invested in a pooled fund bridge analysis program. Each state would put up some money, and they jointly developed this program and made it available to all the design engineering firms and contractors to design and analyze their bridges and elevated structures. They were threatened by commercial systems popping up all over the places. As an act of self preservation they decided to require any engineering companies to do work for them to use their own system because they were "certified safe". They also got the backing of various other agencies such as AASHTO (Amercian Association of State Highway Officials) endorsing it, and finally they made their data proprietary instead of using a published open format. They end up accelerating their death essentially by building an island around themselves. The bottom line was the commercial systems were more cost effective, less maintenance and easier to use. One state broke rank and within 5 years the project was sunset. I see the same pattern over and over again. Everyone is expecting more transparency and better data integration.

If the goal is to stop any 3rd party sites, then where does that put realtor.com? Seems to me realtor.com is kinda sorta like zillow. But realtor.com would be given access simply because NAR has a vested interest in it? Sounds to me many in NAR are not too happy with this either.

NAR approves ‘historic’ changes to realtor.com operating agreement - See more at: http://www.inman.com/2013/07/24/nar-approves-historic-changes-to-realtor-com-operating-agreement/#sthash.tSx6QQiD.dpuf

May be what would happen is NAR will just extract a big fee from these other companies to give them the same access as realtor.com, who knows.

But if I have to put money on it, and look 5 years into the future, I have a hard time seeing the RE listing data to be boxed in a closed system available only to realtors. On the contrary, I see third party solutions to continue to explode and leverage it, zillow or trulia may go out of business, but only because they got to a certain level of success they became acquisition targets for a company such as Google, and then everyone would just go to Google Map and turn on the real estate layer, and ask to bring up all SFR for sale. From there you can query homes with other information at your finger tips, such as show homes that are within half a mile of bus stops on bus route 12, or show homes near by dog parks, or not further than biking distance from the beach, or homes with great cell receptions for Sprint...and Google Map would pop up properties available for sale, for rent and you go can go for a virtual tour. May be instead of Street View, home owners or realtors can upload "House View". We make an offer online by paying bitcoin EMD.
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John Rooster
OP
Denver, CO · Member since 2013 · 409 posts · 105 votes
12y
Originally posted by @Patrick Connell:
...the push by NAR is to suspend syndication; most are moving forward, have already done so, or are currently discussing it.

Please provide any evidence of this. Your previous citation only indicated that your local MLS was delegating decisions on syndication to brokers
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Bryan L.
Residential Real Estate Agent · Cookeville, TN · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 948 votes
12y
Hey @John Rooster - here it is. It's official.

http://timesfreepress.com/news/2014/jan/22/tennessee-based-crye-leike-real-estate-services-mu/?businesstnvalley
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Michael S.
Rental Property Investor · Beaufort, SC · Member since 2013 · 82 posts · 7 votes
12y
@Joe Delia

Do you think legalzoom.com is stealing business from lawyers, Kelly Blue Book is stealing business from car dealerships, and Lowes is stealing business from the mom-and-pop hardware store? If you said yes, you would be right-- but that doesn't make it wrong or preventable.
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Joe Delia
Involved In Real Estate · Rochester Hills, MI · Member since 2010 · 812 posts · 178 votes
12y
Originally posted by @Michael S.:
@Joe Delia

Do you think legalzoom.com is stealing business from lawyers, Kelly Blue Book is stealing business from car dealerships, and Lowes is stealing business from the mom-and-pop hardware store? If you said yes, you would be right-- but that doesn't make it wrong or preventable.

Are apples stealing business from oranges?

Not the same concept. Realtors have chosen to syndicate thinking it would help, the sentiment is changing and if they decide to not, zillow and trulia are dead as we know them today.
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Account Closed
Accountant · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2013 · 303 posts · 210 votes
12y
I like Trulia better. The mobile app is my favorite, whenever I'm out of town I pull it up to see what houses are going for around me.

These stocks are trading at multiples that I'm not comfortable with. I remember seeing Trulia at $24-27 after their IPO, and I think that's a range I would be comfortable buying.
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John Rooster
OP
Denver, CO · Member since 2013 · 409 posts · 105 votes
12y
Originally posted by @John Rooster:

Originally posted by @Patrick Connell:

Well, what do you think of the various opinions you've gotten so far?

My overall long term view point has not changed. From my view point, the only two serious players in the market are Trulia and Zillow. I think they are both fairly valued relative to each other, and would buy similar amounts of each. I would bet that one will buy out the other in the next couple years. I think the entire internet stock sector is set for a pullback, and will wait for said pullback before buying.

FWIW, I ended up buying Zillow at an average of about 85 and Trulia at about 32
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