Help me to understand why this is a good or bad deal. BRRRR

[Michael Kotylo]

I'm analyzing one deal per day. I came across a house that needs work and seemed like a great BRRRR, but after calculating the numbers, I'm not sure if it's worthwhile.

I calculated 6mos of rehab/holding time and 6 mos before cash out refi. If all went according to plan, I would get my initial investment back, plus 40k after refi, but the property would have a negative monthly cashflow for the first few years. Which basically means that 40k is more like ~30k. This is assuming everything goes right and nothing goes wrong. What do you all think, is this a good deal or a bad deal, and why? Thanks!