COMPS Analysis - Off market

Investor · Saint Louis · Member since 2022 · 36 posts · 11 votes

I am trying to do a CMA with a property I am intending to buy in St Louis, MO. It is not intended to buy as a flip; however, I need to know the current value to refinance the property and knowing how much to offer. I want to recover most of my capital and therefore buy cash (BRRRR). I suggested that analyzing comps would be a good start, as the appraisers also work this way.

I am stuck in the valuation of a comp. So, for example, how much does the price gets impacted when we compare a 2 bedroom, to a 3 bedroom in the same ZIP? How does this work with the SQFT and age of the property?

This is my current COMP overview, all in the same ZIP AREA, sold <6 months:

How can I determine from here the right valuation and refinancing amount?

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John Chong

Lender · Houston, TX · Member since 2023 · 235 posts · 255 votes

Are you working with an agent in St Louis, MO? They should be able to run a CMA for you and pull all of the sold data between a 3 bed vs a 2 bed in the same zip code. If its public record for MO, you should be able to find the comps on other sites. Every market and neighborhood is different so you would need to see the sold data to compare.

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John Chong
Lender · Houston, TX · Member since 2023 · 235 posts · 255 votes
3y
Are you working with an agent in St Louis, MO? They should be able to run a CMA for you and pull all of the sold data between a 3 bed vs a 2 bed in the same zip code. If its public record for MO, you should be able to find the comps on other sites. Every market and neighborhood is different so you would need to see the sold data to compare.
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PJ Boxel
OP
Investor · Saint Louis · Member since 2022 · 36 posts · 11 votes
3y
Quote from @John Chong:

Are you working with an agent in St Louis, MO? They should be able to run a CMA for you and pull all of the sold data between a 3 bed vs a 2 bed in the same zip code. If its public record for MO, you should be able to find the comps on other sites. Every market and neighborhood is different so you would need to see the sold data to compare.

Yes I do, but I thought that it would be great as an investor to run my own comps (which I did and I came out to 72-74k). And afterwards, confirm by an agent. I think every good investor should be able to do an accurate CMA. My agent confirmed my analysis at 74k, so it was a great call.

However, I still want to keep doing my CMA as accurate as well. Any tips on doing this?
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Leon Finch
New to Real Estate · MO · Member since 2019 · 3 posts · 0 votes
3y
What tool are you using to obtain comps? I know a lot of properties in Missouri don't disclose the "sold" price.
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John Chong
Lender · Houston, TX · Member since 2023 · 235 posts · 255 votes
3y
@PJ Boxel I agree with you, I think every investor should learn how to run comps. If you have access to the sold data then you should be good to go. I would keep the comps tight, the same neighborhood (1 mile max if there's no comps in the neighborhood, no older than 3 months, no more than 10 years in age, same bed/bath, lot size, garage, and similar finishes.

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PJ Boxel
OP
Investor · Saint Louis · Member since 2022 · 36 posts · 11 votes
3y
Quote from @Leon Finch:

What tool are you using to obtain comps? I know a lot of properties in Missouri don't disclose the "sold" price.

Well, I just use free tools like redfin and zillow, but I never estimate an ARV based of these alone. I always let them confirm by my buying agent who has access to the MLS!

Thanks for the patience :)
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PJ Boxel
OP
Investor · Saint Louis · Member since 2022 · 36 posts · 11 votes
3y
Quote from @John Chong:

@PJ Boxel I agree with you, I think every investor should learn how to run comps. If you have access to the sold data then you should be good to go. I would keep the comps tight, the same neighborhood (1 mile max if there's no comps in the neighborhood, no older than 3 months, no more than 10 years in age, same bed/bath, lot size, garage, and similar finishes.

That's what I am doing in my own CMA! If I don't have enough data, i adjust the data to more bed/bath, bigger radius or different age. I always do it myself first and later let it verify by my agent with the sold data from the MLS. Should this be enough?

Thanks man!
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John Chong
Lender · Houston, TX · Member since 2023 · 235 posts · 255 votes
3y
@PJ Boxel of course, anytime! Also keep in mind the price per sq ft.

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