Help me figure out if I am crazy or...

Help me figure out if I am crazy or...

Member since 2021 · 19 posts · 22 votes

Folks, I was talking to a turnkey company to buy an investment property, and looking at a few properties. Their pro forma sheet doesn't take into account ANY vacancy or repairs when calculating cash flow, and the rent comps are...ambitious. 

1. The way their cash flow calculations are presented is IMO sketchy: while the form is not a spreadsheet, it is made to look like vacancy/repairs are included in cash flow calcs (stacked together with other numbers impacting cash flow, and right above the final cash flow amount) 

2. When asked about vacancy/repairs, their answer is: that's why why they separately have $5,000-10,000 as "account reserves" in their pro forma. Or "simply cost of doing business", they keep repeating - (an unprofitable business, it seems to me, but maybe I am just inexperienced?). Furthermore, they add something along the lines of "this property is working for you, cash flow is here to cover this type of stuff while the property is appreciating -- so what if you have that 5K HVAC unit replacement " (FYI, even when optimistically calculated, cash flow does NOT cover a 5K HVAC unit within the first few years) 

3. When asked why their properties don't cash flow in any rental calculator, the answer is: "people who use these rental calculators don't get the kind of deals we give you" 

4, Re rent comps...I looked at Zillow, and another tool, and if I simply rely on Zillow, rents are typically lower and there are properties in the same few blocks on the market for 40+ days. THe turnkey company's answer: our property mgmt company is doing daily complex algorithms and they have the best information here. My reply: "but these properties realistically are for rent, so your comps should not be that much off, correct?" No reply, just that their PM knows best. P,S. PM has bad reviews for the most part 


Am I crazy here? Should I at least see NEUTRAL cash flow if I account for vacancy and repairs (and am optimistically counting on this to appreciate)?...Not to mention that all their ROI calcs depend on cash flow of course so long term return calculations also fall apart.

I do want to give them benefit of the doubt but I also want your smart opinions. Thank you very much! 

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Greg ScottPro Member
Rental Property Investor · SE Michigan · Member since 2014 · 4k+ posts · 6k+ votes
2y

There are TONS of turnkey rental companies out there.  If you have concerns, don't buy.  Go look at some others.

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Alecia LovelessPro Member
    Member since 2019 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    2y

    @Ivana Ivanovic if the numbers don’t make sense to you initially then you should probably not do the deal.

    I just bought a property that is net even (with calculations for repairs, maintenance, and CapEx) for the first 3 years after I get it stabilized. In year 3 it will start cash flowing about $300/unit/month and in year 5 when my construction loan is done it will cash flow at least $500/unit/month.

    Sometimes there’s extenuating circumstances that may make buying a net $0 cash flowing property worth it.

    In your instance the smoke and mirrors seem to be hiding fatal flaws in the deal.

  • Investor · Austin, TX · Member since 2017 · 107 posts · 89 votes
    2y

    You're doing your own due diligence. The entire point of that process is not to listen to this turnkey provider and make sure you are comfortable with what you see.

    It sounds like you're not comfortable. You should just tell them: "This deal only makes my numbers work at a price of $X, call me back if you can do that. The projected rent is only going to be $Y based on comps and $Z is the monthly capex burden, setting aside $10k just isn't how this works."

    The bad accounting and rosy projections they put up are essentially a honeypot for a lazy buyer who just needs an easy place to put money to work. Best case, they get bailed out by market appreciation before the property bleeds them dry.

  • Member since 2021 · 19 posts · 22 votes
    2y
    Quote from @V.G Jason:
    Quote from @Ivana Ivanovic:
    Quote from @V.G Jason:
    Quote from @Ivana Ivanovic:
    Quote from @V.G Jason:
    Quote from @Ivana Ivanovic:

    Folks, I was talking to a turnkey company to buy an investment property, and looking at a few properties. Their pro forma sheet doesn't take into account ANY vacancy or repairs when calculating cash flow, and the rent comps are...ambitious. 

    1. The way their cash flow calculations are presented is IMO sketchy: while the form is not a spreadsheet, it is made to look like vacancy/repairs are included in cash flow calcs (stacked together with other numbers impacting cash flow, and right above the final cash flow amount) 

    2. When asked about vacancy/repairs, their answer is: that's why why they separately have $5,000-10,000 as "account reserves" in their pro forma. Or "simply cost of doing business", they keep repeating - (an unprofitable business, it seems to me, but maybe I am just inexperienced?). Furthermore, they add something along the lines of "this property is working for you, cash flow is here to cover this type of stuff while the property is appreciating -- so what if you have that 5K HVAC unit replacement " (FYI, even when optimistically calculated, cash flow does NOT cover a 5K HVAC unit within the first few years) 

    3. When asked why their properties don't cash flow in any rental calculator, the answer is: "people who use these rental calculators don't get the kind of deals we give you" 

    4, Re rent comps...I looked at Zillow, and another tool, and if I simply rely on Zillow, rents are typically lower and there are properties in the same few blocks on the market for 40+ days. THe turnkey company's answer: our property mgmt company is doing daily complex algorithms and they have the best information here. My reply: "but these properties realistically are for rent, so your comps should not be that much off, correct?" No reply, just that their PM knows best. P,S. PM has bad reviews for the most part 


    Am I crazy here? Should I at least see NEUTRAL cash flow if I account for vacancy and repairs (and am optimistically counting on this to appreciate)?...Not to mention that all their ROI calcs depend on cash flow of course so long term return calculations also fall apart.

    I do want to give them benefit of the doubt but I also want your smart opinions. Thank you very much! 


     The better question is which turnkey shops do not do this?

    They pretty much all do it, some with predatory lending type practices on this board. 


     Well, in addition to a couple of other comments, that helps. I was already set to start on a solo path (with the help of an investor-focused RE agent), but now won't even be tempted to check out another turnkey company. 

     What's an investor-focused RE agent? 

    That's also almost mythical. There's maybe in 1 in every 100,000, that are truly "investor" focused. Most are sales focused, and you're the one they are selling to. Quit reading the nonsense, and judge based on behavior. Don't tell me you're getting a "core 4" next.


     LOL! What's "core 4"? Ha ha ha. I think the investor-focused agent is one that understands investor needs vs. buying a primary home- very different ball games I think. They help the investor also connect with a PM on the ground and potentially contractors, which can be useful. 


     I know what an investor friendly agent is. I'm saying do you believe those exist, yet alone in abundance? Those are unicorns. 


     I need to start somewhere. It sounds like they are unicorn-ish based on what I am seeing, but that's the case with most professionals. It took me years to find a great cleaning crew, for example. There is a lot to be translated from general professional experiences to real estate, including finding great people. I do appreciate your words of warning however!

  • Member since 2021 · 19 posts · 22 votes
    2y
    Quote from @Adam Michael Andrews:

    You're doing your own due diligence. The entire point of that process is not to listen to this turnkey provider and make sure you are comfortable with what you see.

    It sounds like you're not comfortable. You should just tell them: "This deal only makes my numbers work at a price of $X, call me back if you can do that. The projected rent is only going to be $Y based on comps and $Z is the monthly capex burden, setting aside $10k just isn't how this works."

    The bad accounting and rosy projections they put up are essentially a honeypot for a lazy buyer who just needs an easy place to put money to work. Best case, they get bailed out by market appreciation before the property bleeds them dry.


     Thanks Adam! This is in fact what I did tell them and they instead chose to bombard me with another set of bad deals and accompanying alarming messages. I think I am going to break up with them  as soon as tomorrow :) 

  • Investor · Austin, TX · Member since 2017 · 107 posts · 89 votes
    2y
    Quote from @Ivana Ivanovic:
    Quote from @Adam Michael Andrews:

    You're doing your own due diligence. The entire point of that process is not to listen to this turnkey provider and make sure you are comfortable with what you see.

    It sounds like you're not comfortable. You should just tell them: "This deal only makes my numbers work at a price of $X, call me back if you can do that. The projected rent is only going to be $Y based on comps and $Z is the monthly capex burden, setting aside $10k just isn't how this works."

    The bad accounting and rosy projections they put up are essentially a honeypot for a lazy buyer who just needs an easy place to put money to work. Best case, they get bailed out by market appreciation before the property bleeds them dry.


     Thanks Adam! This is in fact what I did tell them and they instead chose to bombard me with another set of bad deals and accompanying alarming messages. I think I am going to break up with them  as soon as tomorrow :) 


    Sounds good! In the end you commit to a property, not a relationship with the provider. If they provide access to their inventory you can still source a deal through them in the end if the numbers actually do hold up on your end later on.
  • Drew SygitBusiness Member
    Property Manager · Royal Oak, MI · Member since 2012 · 12k+ posts · 9k+ votes
    2y

    @Ivana Ivanovic most Turnkey Companies took advantage of the drop in prices after the Great RE Crash in 2008-2010.

    While values plummeted, rents didn't, allowing Turnkey companies to buy properties relatively cheap, fix them up and still sell at a profit due to relatively high rents.

    Around 2016, they could no longer do this with Class A properties, so they moved to Class B.

    Right after COVID, they were forced to move to Class C properties.

    What do you think most of them are doing now to justify selling at profitable prices for themselves?

    Maybe fluffling, if not falsely representing income and appreciation while downplaying expenses?

  • Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Ivana Ivanovic:
    Quote from @V.G Jason:
    Quote from @Ivana Ivanovic:
    Quote from @V.G Jason:
    Quote from @Ivana Ivanovic:
    Quote from @V.G Jason:
    Quote from @Ivana Ivanovic:

    Folks, I was talking to a turnkey company to buy an investment property, and looking at a few properties. Their pro forma sheet doesn't take into account ANY vacancy or repairs when calculating cash flow, and the rent comps are...ambitious. 

    1. The way their cash flow calculations are presented is IMO sketchy: while the form is not a spreadsheet, it is made to look like vacancy/repairs are included in cash flow calcs (stacked together with other numbers impacting cash flow, and right above the final cash flow amount) 

    2. When asked about vacancy/repairs, their answer is: that's why why they separately have $5,000-10,000 as "account reserves" in their pro forma. Or "simply cost of doing business", they keep repeating - (an unprofitable business, it seems to me, but maybe I am just inexperienced?). Furthermore, they add something along the lines of "this property is working for you, cash flow is here to cover this type of stuff while the property is appreciating -- so what if you have that 5K HVAC unit replacement " (FYI, even when optimistically calculated, cash flow does NOT cover a 5K HVAC unit within the first few years) 

    3. When asked why their properties don't cash flow in any rental calculator, the answer is: "people who use these rental calculators don't get the kind of deals we give you" 

    4, Re rent comps...I looked at Zillow, and another tool, and if I simply rely on Zillow, rents are typically lower and there are properties in the same few blocks on the market for 40+ days. THe turnkey company's answer: our property mgmt company is doing daily complex algorithms and they have the best information here. My reply: "but these properties realistically are for rent, so your comps should not be that much off, correct?" No reply, just that their PM knows best. P,S. PM has bad reviews for the most part 


    Am I crazy here? Should I at least see NEUTRAL cash flow if I account for vacancy and repairs (and am optimistically counting on this to appreciate)?...Not to mention that all their ROI calcs depend on cash flow of course so long term return calculations also fall apart.

    I do want to give them benefit of the doubt but I also want your smart opinions. Thank you very much! 


     The better question is which turnkey shops do not do this?

    They pretty much all do it, some with predatory lending type practices on this board. 


     Well, in addition to a couple of other comments, that helps. I was already set to start on a solo path (with the help of an investor-focused RE agent), but now won't even be tempted to check out another turnkey company. 

     What's an investor-focused RE agent? 

    That's also almost mythical. There's maybe in 1 in every 100,000, that are truly "investor" focused. Most are sales focused, and you're the one they are selling to. Quit reading the nonsense, and judge based on behavior. Don't tell me you're getting a "core 4" next.


     LOL! What's "core 4"? Ha ha ha. I think the investor-focused agent is one that understands investor needs vs. buying a primary home- very different ball games I think. They help the investor also connect with a PM on the ground and potentially contractors, which can be useful. 


     I know what an investor friendly agent is. I'm saying do you believe those exist, yet alone in abundance? Those are unicorns. 


     I need to start somewhere. It sounds like they are unicorn-ish based on what I am seeing, but that's the case with most professionals. It took me years to find a great cleaning crew, for example. There is a lot to be translated from general professional experiences to real estate, including finding great people. I do appreciate your words of warning however!


    Lol, no he was not stating a euphemism, that is the terminology used today for "us", we are coined "Unicorn Agent's". 

    To put it into terms; I was asked to come a chair a agent training at a big-brand brokerage (KW) which was about REI. In the entire brokerage of 180+ agent's there was a grand total of 3 who had some level knowledge, THREE. And all of those 3 were at what I'd call "kinder-care" level. They had done 1 strategy ever, each, and that's all they knew that 1 thing. And it was uber basic and tied to yester-years market of buy low and just sit.

    Not a 1 in the entire brokerage knew anything on seller financing and flipping paper. None knew anything on development, redevelopment, let alone things on zoning, variances etc.. 

    Agents are in general trained today to be retail. The entire system is designed to just be this 1 thing, color int he lines, don't venture out, just follow these steps. 

    The term "investor friendly" is the biggest joke! It's literally taught at brokerages that if one is a new agent just say there "investor friendly" because it's quick "easy $". Zero attention to knowledge, skill, capability. 

    SO yes, we are unicorns. Exceptionally rare, highly valuable. 

  • Chris ClothierBusiness Member
    Rental Property Investor · memphis, TN · Member since 2009 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    2y

    Good morning @Ivana Ivanovic,

    You have some good advice from the previous responses, so I won't spend a lot of time repeating it.  The reality of most buying decisions is that we move forward when we like whom we are working with and trust what they tell us.  When you lack trust in what you are hearing or seeing, typically, it is almost impossible to move forward.  It seems like you have good instincts and want to understand what you are seeing and hearing.

    I would like to counter some of the statements on here, though, and offer some advice that may help as you get moving forward.  My family first used the word turnkey to describe our business model back in early 2007.  We were featured in a couple of real estate magazines that were widely distributed among real estate meet-ups, and pretty soon, the word began to stick.  I don't claim to be the first to use it, but we have not heard other companies use the word to describe their model before.

    To me, a turnkey real estate offering includes a high-quality remodeled property with a resident in place or high probability before closing and an in-place management company under the same roof.  As an investor, this gives you one point of contact and one responsible party to speak with going forward.  One point of contact to purchase the property from, to talk with about renovations and quality of work, and to speak with for ongoing property management.  One responsible party.

    I began posting on BP in January 2009, and almost immediately, active investors and other posters with differing views made the same arguments in your posting. The general argument was the same: All turnkey is bad, and all investors can do the exact same thing on their own. I have spent 15+ years making the following statements.

    1.  Turnkey is just a marketing word.  It is way over-used today on BP by everyone looking to get some eyeballs on their posts or their products.  Every company that uses the word turnkey has its own definition for what it means.  Today you see realtors use it to describe their services.  You see individuals who buy and sell properties but do none of the work and do not manage the properties; use the word turnkey.  You see, companies that don't actually do anything. They don't buy properties, renovate, or manage properties; they don't even risk their own money.  They act as marketing companies, and they use the word turnkey because they know it works to attract buyers.

    2.  It's important to note that not all turnkey companies are bad.  There are a few reputable companies around the country, some of which are here on BP, with solid long-term reputations.  However, it's crucial to invest time in doing what you've already done-  asking questions and getting to know the companies.  The two most important questions you can ask are 'How' and 'Why '.  Why do they run their numbers the way they do?    How do they operate to give you high confidence in their ability? 

    Many investors never bother to understand precisely how a passive investment will work.  When you buy halfway across the country and expect a turnkey process where someone or some company is doing all of the detailed work, such as property selection, renovation work, and property management, you are entirely reliant on their ability.  As I said, several companies are very good at selecting, renovating, and managing investment properties.  In my opinion, there are also more that are not so good and several promotional companies that do the industry no favors. 

    As far as the answers you received, I likely would not find any comfort in them the way you typed them in here. I would ask a few more questions, but again, I doubt my trust in them would grow based on what you typed.

    I agree 100% on the account reserves.  As an investor, I firmly believe in keeping $5,000 to $8,000 in reserves for each property up to five or six properties.  I also believe every dollar from my residents' paid rent goes toward principal reduction.  If I am not reducing the principal, then I will add it to my reserve account.  I don't invest to make and use the cash flow for anything outside of the property.  Once I have $40,000 to $50,000 in a reserve account, I am no longer worried about having enough reserves.  I am comfortable that I built enough of a reserve account to handle my portfolio.

    I do not account for vacancy, maintenance or capex in my personal calculations.  Those are soft costs that are not monthly nor annual - however, they will occur.  My cash flow is calculated by income - fixed expenses, which I can calculate monthly, quarterly, or yearly.  Over the long term, my properties make money in multiple ways, but cash flow is probably the least significant.  For me, the rent covers everything and allows the property to perform.  From there, every dollar goes toward reserves or principal reduction.  If a property goes vacant, reserves pay the note.  If a property needs maintenance, it is either reduced from that month's rent or comes from reserves.  It is the same with capex costs.  Some are treated as expenses, and some are an increase in basis.  

    I am explaining all of this because I am a passive investor like you.  I am buying for the long haul. I am not buying for short, quick hits.  I rely on others to be really good at what they do.  I do not expect to buy properties at 1% rent-to-price ratios.  I buy median-priced homes and above with exceptionally good property management and high expectations that the house's value will go up, the rent it commands will go up, and the likelihood of it staying rented with low maintenance is very high.  I know it will likely make very little annual cash flow for that.  I generally own my properties at the top of the market and sometimes above market value, but I am an experienced investor and fully understand that I must let time do its job.  If I have the right company, they will help me beat market averages for vacancy and maintenance.

    You are not asking for too much with your post and expectations of a turnkey provider.  I think you are getting some poor responses from the company.  Do not settle for less than what you expect.  I don't like the word realistic, so I will say that you want to understand what you get for what you pay.  The better the deal looks, knowing that you are passive, the higher the likely risk.  There is a point where a property makes sense to meet your expectations.  But your expectations have to align with who you are doing business with and what you are buying.  There are good turnkey companies out there that understand how important high-quality homes and services are to investors. 

    Please don't worry about being in a rush. I promise that you will not miss out by being patient.  Best of luck as you go forward!

  • CT · Member since 2024 · 21 posts · 15 votes
    2y

    Some great replies in here and I'll add my thoughts:

    Everyone has a different opinion on what good financials look like. I talked to someone the other day that was happy making $200 a month after expenses and they were scaling that way with multiple purchases.  Personally, I would prefer a higher net income at the end of the month. If the numbers don't match what you think you would like to make on a property, then either you need to discount the asking price to get there or pass on the property.

    My second thought is what you're feeling and others have highlighted - no everyone is in the business to make it fair for both sides. Being taken advantage of would be a tough pill to swallow for me so I've been (overly) cautious when looking to put my money into an investment.  

    My last food for thought is if you decide the risk is worth taking, always get the inspection done. Some may disagree that investors should be contingency free, but having a thorough inspection will at least give you peace of mind that the property is in good working order.

    Good luck!

  • Marc RiceBusiness Member
    Real Estate Agent · Columbus Cleveland Dayton, OH · Member since 2018 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Ivana Ivanovic:

    Folks, I was talking to a turnkey company to buy an investment property, and looking at a few properties. Their pro forma sheet doesn't take into account ANY vacancy or repairs when calculating cash flow, and the rent comps are...ambitious. 

    1. The way their cash flow calculations are presented is IMO sketchy: while the form is not a spreadsheet, it is made to look like vacancy/repairs are included in cash flow calcs (stacked together with other numbers impacting cash flow, and right above the final cash flow amount) 

    2. When asked about vacancy/repairs, their answer is: that's why why they separately have $5,000-10,000 as "account reserves" in their pro forma. Or "simply cost of doing business", they keep repeating - (an unprofitable business, it seems to me, but maybe I am just inexperienced?). Furthermore, they add something along the lines of "this property is working for you, cash flow is here to cover this type of stuff while the property is appreciating -- so what if you have that 5K HVAC unit replacement " (FYI, even when optimistically calculated, cash flow does NOT cover a 5K HVAC unit within the first few years) 

    3. When asked why their properties don't cash flow in any rental calculator, the answer is: "people who use these rental calculators don't get the kind of deals we give you" 

    4, Re rent comps...I looked at Zillow, and another tool, and if I simply rely on Zillow, rents are typically lower and there are properties in the same few blocks on the market for 40+ days. THe turnkey company's answer: our property mgmt company is doing daily complex algorithms and they have the best information here. My reply: "but these properties realistically are for rent, so your comps should not be that much off, correct?" No reply, just that their PM knows best. P,S. PM has bad reviews for the most part 


    Am I crazy here? Should I at least see NEUTRAL cash flow if I account for vacancy and repairs (and am optimistically counting on this to appreciate)?...Not to mention that all their ROI calcs depend on cash flow of course so long term return calculations also fall apart.

    I do want to give them benefit of the doubt but I also want your smart opinions. Thank you very much! 


     You should run your numbers independently of a proforma to be safe. Turnkey properties are notorious for fluffing.

    Marc Rice | Investor Friendly Agent at Reafco Tailwind Team574 Reviews
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