Should I Accept the Counter Offer for a SFH in SoCal?

Should I Accept the Counter Offer for a SFH in SoCal?

Rental Property Investor · La Puente, CA · Member since 2015 · 87 posts · 20 votes

I'm a new investor and would love to hear your opinion on my 1st rental property purchase attempt in Southern California.

The good:

1. 4/2/2 1600 sf SFH with big yard;

2. flipped house so everything is new;

3. comps with smaller square footage or not so good condition are all over $100k (ARV is around $120k-130k), and seller countered for $75k;

4. it can rent for $1000/month;

5. it's a relatively safe and quiet area.

The bad: 

1. vacancy rate is like 20%-30% in average for that area because it's rural and has lots of rental properties;

2. roof is in very bad shape and will need to be replaced in a year or 2, which will cost about $5000-$8000;

3. no dishwasher, will cost about $1000-$1500 to alter kitchen cabinets and add dishwasher;

4. only has vinyl siding, not a good choice for high heat area and will stretch and sag, cost $5000+ to replace with stucco;

5. no separate garage door connecting main house, will cost about $1000 to add it;

6. house is about 2.5 hours away from where I live;

7. almost no appreciation.

Expenses: 

property tax: $1541

insurance: $570

property management: 10%

maintenance: 5%

tenant replacement: one month rent

I understand how hard it is to find cash flow properties in SoCal, so I'm struggling on whether to proceed with this deal even though cash flow is only about $100/month, not to mention cash on cash ROI is less than 5% considering all the capital expenses in the near future.

I welcome any input.  Thanks in advance.

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Rental Property Investor · Northern, CA · Member since 2012 · 5k+ posts · 5k+ votes
10y
Originally posted by @Annie Li:

@John D. Yes, I was using BP rental calc for my analysis.  I mentioned 1.33% because it's so unusual in SoCal which is one of the main reasons I placed an offer.  I also noticed those SFHs with non-permitted alternations, but the ones I looked are all in horrible conditions that I'm not too excited to deal with being far away.

@Matt R.

Hey Annie,

1.33% rent/value might sound good (especially in SoCal), but that's just a super quick "rule of thumb" to help quickly rule out properties that don't fit your criteria or warrant further investment of your time. But as correctly pointed out by John, when you have abnormally high numbers in other categories (like vacancy), you have to take that into account too.

For instance, if you had the choice of purchasing House "A" for $75k that rented for $1,000/month (which is 1.33% and your exact example), or House "B" for $75K that rented for only $675/month (less than 1%), which would you choose? Probably House "A", right? But what if I told you that House "A" was in an area with 30% vacancy and House "B" was in an area with only 5% vacancy? Would you still go with House "A"?

Let's see which would likely bring you more money after 5 years of ownership:

- House "A" = $1000/mo for 5 years is $60,000. But you're only going to collect 70% of that because of your 30% vacancy rate, so that brings you down to $42,000. Now subtract 10% from that for your Property Mgmt fee and that'll bring you down to $37,800. But wait, every time you had a vacancy, you also had to pay your Property Manager one month's rent for new tenant placement. With a 30% vacancy rate you probably had to place about 7 tenants in the 5 years, so that's another $7,000 to pay to the PM. Now you're at $30,800 (before any other expenses).

- House "B" = $675/mo for 5 years is only $40,500. But your vacancy rate on this house is only 5% so you'll still be at $38,475 after factoring that in. Now subtract 10% from that for your Property Mgmt fee and that'll bring you down to about $34,627. With a 5% vacancy rate, let's say you had to place 3 tenants in the 5 years, which would be another $2,025 to pay to the PM. Now you're at $32,602 (before any other expenses), which is more than House "A" even though the rent on House "A" was actually quite a bit higher. 

(The numbers above obviously leave out other less variable expenses for simplicity sake, but keep in mind some expenses - like utilities - could also cost you more on House "A" because you'll have to pay them while your house sits vacant for more months.)

Anyway, I tried not to make this too confusing but I just wanted to point out how a "rule of thumb" like the 1% rule (or in your case, the 1.33% rule) can be misleading when you take other factors into consideration.

Good luck with your investing whatever you decide. :)

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  • Rental Property Investor · La Quinta, CA · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 779 votes
    10y

    "vacancy rate is like 20%-30% in average for that area because it's rural and has lots of rental properties;"

    Unless you've got a strategy/angle that very clearly separates you from the market, and all but guarantees a significantly lower vacancy rate over time, the answer is definitely no on this one given the vacancy you cite.

  • Rental Property Investor · Rockwall, TX · Member since 2015 · 891 posts · 701 votes
    10y

    I agree with @John D.

    That vacancy rate is a killer. Additionally, with the impending CapEx that you already know about, it would probably take 4 or 5 years of cash flow before this place turns any kind of profit. I would not recommend buying this house.

    -Christopher

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Mechanicsburg, PA · Member since 2013 · 189 posts · 84 votes
    10y
    This does not sound like a good deal as a buy and hold property for me. Look for something closer to your home or look for a multi unit if you are willing to invest out of your area. I'd also be skeptical of a flipper who didn't replace something as obvious as a bad roof. Where else did they cut corners that you can't see?
  • Real Estate Agent · Easley, SC · Member since 2015 · 14 posts · 14 votes
    10y

    Hi Annie,

    What is the math telling you?  Use the rental property calculator at the top of your dashboard page to figure out if this is a good deal. At 2.5 hours away you will most likely utilize a PM company, which will suck some of your CF.  I like what Jeremy said about the person who flipped the house - why weren't the items you listed already taken care of in the first place? It sounds like you have made your decision already - your gut is telling you NO...and the math is telling you NO - then with everyone else here on your question, I would agree = NO, wait for the right deal, don't settle.

  • Investor · Indialantic, FL · Member since 2013 · 111 posts · 76 votes
    10y

    @Annie Li  I'd call this a house for sale instead of a deal!  I'm not in your area, but 5-8k for a roof seems low.  I didn't see a mortgage listed in the expenses, I'm guessing this is cash?  With all of the things needing updated, this doesn't seem like a flipped house, seems more like a partially fixed up house that still needs a lot of big ticket items, with the numbers you presented you are talking about around 15k of rehab.  

    With the info you presented here it looks more like a money pit to me! 

  • Rental Property Investor · La Puente, CA · Member since 2015 · 87 posts · 20 votes
    10y

    I really appreciate everyone's quick and helpful responses.  This is exactly why I posted this question on BP.

    @John D. My angle is this is a 4 bed house with new interior; the majority rentals are 3 beds with older interior.

    @Christopher Brainard, Vacancy rate is my biggest concern, but I have above angle, and even adding up all CapEx, I still have quite a bit of equity.

    @Jeremy S. Seller disclosed the roof condition.  He bought it for $47,000 so didn't make much profit from it.  I guess he either didn't have enough money left to finish the roof or he just wanted to get rid of it ASAP while the holidays are coming.  I would looooove to find something closer to where I live, but being in Los Angeles county, it's almost like a miracle to find something that can cash flow with 20% down. 

    @Ward Mcdaniel You are absolutely right, I'm ready to let go the "deal", but with all the reasons mentioned above that I'm struggling with, I turned to you guys for emotional support.

    @Michael Olesky I plan to leverage financing with 20% down.  If it's all cash, the cash flow would be more than $300.  I agree the flipper did a lousy job by having profit margin so thin, missing dishwasher for a big family house, using wrong exterior material, lacking curb appeal, etc.  It's almost like a text book case of flipper no no. 

  • Sterling WhitePro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Indianapolis, IN · Member since 2014 · 554 posts · 153 votes
    10y

    Go with your gut as everyone mentioned above @Annie Li. With a vacancy that high in that location you will endure much turnover even if you decide to put in a nicer rehab. If you are looking to cash flow positive out of state maybe your best option.

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    10y

    @Annie Li If you have a solid plan to overcome the vacancy rate then maybe. Otherwise there is little value here as a rental. If vacancies are nearing 30% that is approaching ghost town territory for SoCal. What is to say yours won't be 50%? The true value of any rental is closely tied to the vacancy rate. Decent management options might not exist. Vacant homes get stripped and vandalized regularly. Exiting becomes a problem too. I can't see spending hard earned money on one this unless it was going for peanuts. I think there are 100k SoCal properties with much less challenges. IDK what area this is in so this is just my helicopter take. Good luck!

  • Rental Property Investor · La Quinta, CA · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 779 votes
    10y

         I don't think you'll find enough people that need a 4 bedroom (vs. a 3) to sufficiently lower increase your occupancy.

        While I am primarily looking at short-term vacation rentals in these areas, there are good cash flow options in many locations within 2 or so hour from you.  Palm Springs areas and Big Bear are a few I am currently looking in.

  • Rental Property Investor · La Puente, CA · Member since 2015 · 87 posts · 20 votes
    10y

    @Sterling White I'm indeed seriously looking to buy out of state CF properties in December using my left over vacation days.  Indy is one of the options.  If you know any good wholesaler/agent/TK provider, please kindly let me know.

    @Matt R. I have located a good PM specialized in that area. I've thought about exit strategy: having so much equity and nice interior, I thought I could sell it for at least $110k if rental wouldn't work. I'm estimating vacancy rate and ARV pretty conservative in this case. It's a nice & quiet small town with military people being about 30%, so chances of vandalizing are slim. I don't know if you've heard of 29 Palms.

    @John D. I guess you are right, especially when 3 of 4 bedrooms are extremely small.  I've looked at Palm Springs area, but prices are much higher so the numbers don't look good, it's challenging to even meet 1% rule unless you are open to big rehabs.  I just quickly looked at Big Bear, long term rental cash flow is definitely a challenge, not sure about vacation rental as I have no experience in that.

    It's frustrating to give up this deal as this is my first try in SoCal after doing all types of research for a while. With 1.33% rent/value ratio on a SoCal SFH, no interior rehab, lower property tax/insurance and within driving distance, I thought it was a great opportunity for me. I guess I need to put aside my emotions and be prepared for a better opportunity ahead of me.

  • Real Estate Investor · Clovis, CA · Member since 2014 · 195 posts · 194 votes
    10y

    @Annie Li  What price was your offer at that he is countering.  I Think you could add the dishwasher, if it was a little 2 bedroom and not so competitive I wouldn't even worry about that, and let the rest of the fixes wait.  Maybe counter back at $70k or whatever your last offer was.  You have done a lot of research and as long as you keep insurance on it and a good manager, you can probably get your money back out if you have to sell.

    People pay big money for training courses and I think you could learn a lot from this house.  I like the idea of something you can drive to, instead of turnkey.  Have you looked at Bakersfield? Just looking at it from the other side of the coin.

  • Rental Property Investor · La Puente, CA · Member since 2015 · 87 posts · 20 votes
    10y

    @Mark Freeman Trust me, I'll try anything to make a deal work.  I offered $72k initially being the comps are so high (I have no problem giving low ball offers at all :-), seller countered $75k and was very clear he wouldn't go lower.  Yes, I looked at Bakersfield and it doesn't meet 1% rule, which is one of my entry requirements.  Furthermore, high crime rate in that area is a turn-off to me.  But thanks for mentioning it.  

    I agree with you that I could learn from anything I try in REI; asking questions on BP also expedites my learning curve. I was hoping to start from my beloved LA area, but if that won't work, I'm flexible and am willing to sacrifice for a better outcome in the long run.

  • Rental Property Investor · La Quinta, CA · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 779 votes
    10y

         You don't have a 1.33% rent to value ratio, when you normalize for vacancy and immediately required repairs, it is well below 1%.  I'd encourage you to skip these "rules of thumb" and use one of the rental calculator spreadsheets available that will give you a more complete picture, and allow you to compare properties on an apples-to-apples basis with far more accuracy then the rent-to-value ratio or other simple metrics.

    Also, in some smaller markets like 29palms where investors aren't picking through every deal, every once in a while you'll find something listed as a SFR but that actually has 2 units (where the extra unit and its suqare footage are not factored into the price).

        I comb lots of rural listings to find these properties in my primary markets.  Just found one this week!

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    10y

    @Annie Li Sure I have heard of 29ner. Maybe flip it but IDK about the DOM/holding cost. It is remote as you described and that might be extended because who wants to really live there? That is more of I have to live there deal. But if there is enough of those then perhaps you can make some on the flip. How long has this one been for sale? BTW Bakersfield has one of the lowest vacancy rates in the nation. That might be better if you are buy and holding longterm. 

  • Rental Property Investor · La Puente, CA · Member since 2015 · 87 posts · 20 votes
    10y

    @John D. Yes, I was using BP rental calc for my analysis.  I mentioned 1.33% because it's so unusual in SoCal which is one of the main reasons I placed an offer.  I also noticed those SFHs with non-permitted alternations, but the ones I looked are all in horrible conditions that I'm not too excited to deal with being far away.

    @Matt R. It has been for sale for about a month, seller's agent said there have been lots of interest but nobody submitted an offer before me.  This is also a red flag if I flip it.  For a rural area with less than 30k population (not to mention the military lowered housing allowance so many military tenants moved back to live on base), I think it's just too much uncertainty to continue trying that area.

  • Investor · Madison, WI · Member since 2015 · 44 posts · 31 votes
    10y

    Can you perhaps market the property as something two families can share, or perhaps rent the rooms out separately to individuals? A lot of young adults like to share a house for a few years. These are some ways you could reduce from total vacancy to partial. Otherwise, I agree with others that the vacancy rate is a killer. Add to that the roof and you are really stretching. Use the Analyzer tool on BP and you'll quickly see your numbers. 

  • Real Estate Agent and Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2015 · 52 posts · 20 votes
    10y

    Out of state you can guarantee yourself no appreciation or even negative appreciation in the next few years, specially if you buy turnkey. 

    Compare your deal to this one:

    3bed-2bath, 1400 sqft +600 sqft garage.

    Built in 2009

    3 minute walk to school. 5 minute drive to grocery store and city hall.

    Asking $190k

    Rented for $1,600/month

    The area has appreciated 30% since 2009.

    Vacancy rate around 10%.

    About an hour and a half from West Covina.

  • Real Estate Agent and Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2015 · 52 posts · 20 votes
    10y

    BTW the price of a new roof for that size house is at least 25K, so you should add that to the sales' price

  • Rental Property Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2010 · 804 posts · 230 votes
    10y

    My opinion on this property: Next one please!

  • Rental Property Investor · Northern, CA · Member since 2012 · 5k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Annie Li:

    @John D. Yes, I was using BP rental calc for my analysis.  I mentioned 1.33% because it's so unusual in SoCal which is one of the main reasons I placed an offer.  I also noticed those SFHs with non-permitted alternations, but the ones I looked are all in horrible conditions that I'm not too excited to deal with being far away.

    @Matt R.

    Hey Annie,

    1.33% rent/value might sound good (especially in SoCal), but that's just a super quick "rule of thumb" to help quickly rule out properties that don't fit your criteria or warrant further investment of your time. But as correctly pointed out by John, when you have abnormally high numbers in other categories (like vacancy), you have to take that into account too.

    For instance, if you had the choice of purchasing House "A" for $75k that rented for $1,000/month (which is 1.33% and your exact example), or House "B" for $75K that rented for only $675/month (less than 1%), which would you choose? Probably House "A", right? But what if I told you that House "A" was in an area with 30% vacancy and House "B" was in an area with only 5% vacancy? Would you still go with House "A"?

    Let's see which would likely bring you more money after 5 years of ownership:

    - House "A" = $1000/mo for 5 years is $60,000. But you're only going to collect 70% of that because of your 30% vacancy rate, so that brings you down to $42,000. Now subtract 10% from that for your Property Mgmt fee and that'll bring you down to $37,800. But wait, every time you had a vacancy, you also had to pay your Property Manager one month's rent for new tenant placement. With a 30% vacancy rate you probably had to place about 7 tenants in the 5 years, so that's another $7,000 to pay to the PM. Now you're at $30,800 (before any other expenses).

    - House "B" = $675/mo for 5 years is only $40,500. But your vacancy rate on this house is only 5% so you'll still be at $38,475 after factoring that in. Now subtract 10% from that for your Property Mgmt fee and that'll bring you down to about $34,627. With a 5% vacancy rate, let's say you had to place 3 tenants in the 5 years, which would be another $2,025 to pay to the PM. Now you're at $32,602 (before any other expenses), which is more than House "A" even though the rent on House "A" was actually quite a bit higher. 

    (The numbers above obviously leave out other less variable expenses for simplicity sake, but keep in mind some expenses - like utilities - could also cost you more on House "A" because you'll have to pay them while your house sits vacant for more months.)

    Anyway, I tried not to make this too confusing but I just wanted to point out how a "rule of thumb" like the 1% rule (or in your case, the 1.33% rule) can be misleading when you take other factors into consideration.

    Good luck with your investing whatever you decide. :)

  • Rental Property Investor · La Puente, CA · Member since 2015 · 87 posts · 20 votes
    10y

    @Josie Roman It's hard to compare without neighborhood and all expenses listed.  $25k might be tile roofing?  I googled and for shingle roof it should be around $10k-15k, so I probably under estimated. 

    @Kyle J. I completely agree with you and appreciate your taking the time to explain everything in detail.  People can be biased when they really want things to work for them.  I guess I shouldn't have even started with such a rural area.  Lessons learnt.   

  • Rental Property Investor · La Puente, CA · Member since 2015 · 87 posts · 20 votes
    10y

    @Vanessa Vandervalk In a rural area, it might be even more difficult to sublease bedrooms.  I used BP rental calc to do analysis.

    @Joe Moore  I think so too!  

  • Investor · Riverside, CA · Member since 2011 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    10y

    Sounds like somebody is shopping in 29 Palms or even worse, Barstow. If that is the case, I say walk.. Run. if it is Lancaster/Palmdale, I think you can do better. Never force a deal.

  • Hanford, CA · Member since 2013 · 5k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y

    I would be concern with a large vacancy rate. I own in 3 military towns and my husband is active duty. Some are amazing to own and some I would not touch with a ten foot pole.

    For me the key is to buy in an area where base housing is full or worst than off base and bah covers all or most of housing costs. i also want the schools to be nice or better than off base. 

    Without knowing the area, it could be hit or miss. Friends have told me 29 is hit or miss, very specific types of houses work and other sits. 

    Good luck

  • Real Estate Agent and Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2015 · 52 posts · 20 votes
    10y

    The only expense is property taxes as tenants pay everything else. You can Google that for California, but I would trust Google for a roofing estimate. It depends on what the roof has in place, square footage and how much of the existing roofing structure they have to remove and replace. 

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