Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions.
However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.
Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct.
The market may correct, but I firmly believe there won't be a crash. The reason is simple, equity.
Before 2008 people with no income could get liars loans and buy much more real estate than they could afford. We heard stories of cleaning ladies buying multiple million dollar homes. When home prices starting falling, the whole thing collapses like a house of cards because nobody had any equity. They couldn't sell and get out. We had cascading foreclosures creating a downward spiral.
Recently, prices have been surging. Given the laws passed after the Great Recession, appraisals and lending is highly restricted. Appraisals have not been keeping up with prices and lenders won't lend above appraised value. We sold a house in 2021 and in one day had 20 offers. Several of them had acceleration clauses stating they would pay more than anyone else up to $X. Both of them waived any financing contingency because they KNEW the house wouldn't appraise for what they were offering. They had to make up the difference with cash. Those people have a ton of equity in their homes. If they had to sell, they might take a haircut, but they aren't going to get foreclosed.
There is no house of cards here to come tumbling down.
Afraid of that lurking R.E. market collapse?
Ready to stock pile some $$$$ to get ready to jump on all those FIRE SALE hot deals soon to come at pennies on the dollar?!
Well boy-OH-boy do I got a deal for you!
Crazy Jimmy is your guy! He's got cash to burn and he's so dumb he doesn't see this barn-burner of a deal coming so he's ready to help take that nasty-ole performing property off your hands TODAY! And he won't even price in this collapse in process, no-sir-e, nope, he's willing to give you the deal of a century and lock in at just 90% of todays fair market value! Just imagine those savings, with 30%+ drop in prices "just around the corner", holy-cow it's like taking candy from a carcass.
WHooo-wie, what a steal folks!
All you gotta do is reply to get this pre-doomsday deal and get yourself set before the sky falls and your left without anything to throw at those massive fire-sales sure to come, heck, just ask folks here, the end is just around the corner, act fast, sell now!
It might make sense if you didn’t consider all the wage/labor growth that stated pre pandemic continued into pandemic and then factored in the new world of remote work. Pandoras box is open a something like 30% of people will work remote full time now and it was about half that pre-pandemic.
Finally inventory is lower and inflation is up - even when it stops prices don’t magically reduce. Hard to estimate but if you factor that all in you end up somewhere like 8-17%
It just means we're the Biggerpockets community, we live in Deflation land. We don't feel inflation that much.
While our tenant and the rest of the folks are living in Inflation land.
I bought it in 2009 (at the bottom AFTER waiting for Lehman crashes), Refi at 2021 with a risk-free interest rate.
Now the excess capital I have I can just purchase "cheaper" asset classes like Tech stock company that will outperform real estate in 10 years anyway.
Truth is, the QE can't be stopped, it will be re-continued at some point.
Whether tomorrow Powell is there or not, someone else will change him but his replacement may have different mind (perhaps someone like Bernanke that is famous with as Bernanke Helicopter).
Fed may change their mindset, but the Google and Amazon world will still be there.
Afraid of that lurking R.E. market collapse?
Ready to stock pile some $$$$ to get ready to jump on all those FIRE SALE hot deals soon to come at pennies on the dollar?!
Well boy-OH-boy do I got a deal for you!
Crazy Jimmy is your guy! He's got cash to burn and he's so dumb he doesn't see this barn-burner of a deal coming so he's ready to help take that nasty-ole performing property off your hands TODAY! And he won't even price in this collapse in process, no-sir-e, nope, he's willing to give you the deal of a century and lock in at just 90% of todays fair market value! Just imagine those savings, with 30%+ drop in prices "just around the corner", holy-cow it's like taking candy from a carcass.
WHooo-wie, what a steal folks!
All you gotta do is reply to get this pre-doomsday deal and get yourself set before the sky falls and your left without anything to throw at those massive fire-sales sure to come, heck, just ask folks here, the end is just around the corner, act fast, sell now!
It’s too late to sell for peak “equity” now. Fed seems like they could pivot already, mortgage rates pulling back today because of what the BOE did (launched QE3). It’s comical how someone like yourself, who makes a living off the fed, at the expense of the people that you advocate for in “real jobs” yet you consistently bash the fed and the system. your whole career is based off of the fed manipulating the financial system and low interest rates. It’s also convenient how you happened to buy the market yesterday and you tell us after the markets rallied 2 percent today like you are the financial guru. the only reason stocks went up today is because of what BOE did today, but yeah England doesn’t matter. I’m trying to comprehend here if you are just trolling or if you are really as ignorant as you appear. Something tells me it’s the former, I know cheap money can make morons seem like geniuses, but some of your comments are pretty sound, so I’ll give you troll of the month award.
Some things to consider:
1) Demographics. Over the next 10 years real estate values should be stable and rise although at a slower pace than the last 10 years due to the large millennial generation entering the housing market. After that, we could see a decline unless immigration makes up the difference for low birth rates.
2) All real estate is local. Here in Kansas City (and most of the Midwest), sometimes known as a linear market, we don't see much up and down even during major "crashes." However, in cyclical markets like LA, Miami, New York, etc, all bets are off.
3) 40% of homeowners own their houses free-and-clear and another 30% or so locked in 30-year fixed rates in the 3-4% rate and are unlikely to sell or let their houses go to foreclosure for the next 20 years. I don't see much room for a crash with those stats alone.
Some things to consider:
1) Demographics. Over the next 10 years real estate values should be stable and rise although at a slower pace than the last 10 years due to the large millennial generation entering the housing market. After that, we could see a decline unless immigration makes up the difference for low birth rates.
2) All real estate is local. Here in Kansas City (and most of the Midwest), sometimes known as a linear market, we don't see much up and down even during major "crashes." However, in cyclical markets like LA, Miami, New York, etc, all bets are off.
3) 40% of homeowners own their houses free-and-clear and another 30% or so locked in 30-year fixed rates in the 3-4% rate and are unlikely to sell or let their houses go to foreclosure for the next 20 years. I don't see much room for a crash with those stats alone.
If you knew that your properties and the market as a whole was going to drop next year by 50% percent, you are saying you wouldn't sell them to buy other more unique properties?
No I actually would not. 3 of these are for sure irreplaceable due to location, architecture, lack of anything similar, etc...and could not replaced for 50% for the current value.
But I definitely get the point of your question and it is a good one.....
3) 40% of homeowners own their houses free-and-clear and another 30% or so locked in 30-year fixed rates in the 3-4% rate and are unlikely to sell or let their houses go to foreclosure for the next 20 years. I don't see much room for a crash with those stats alone.
>>>
This has been discussed before. If #3 is true, then we would not see an increase in active inventory.
See housing market and equity market works in a similar fashion. The market needs liquidity. Liquidity comes from the buyer.
Currently, 100% of market in US has a negative YoY of new listing. Good, the theory is right. BUT. for those who has to sell, they don't see enough buyer so in about 75% of the market, there's positive increase in active inventory. Literally we have more seller than buyer.
Active Inventory increases by 25% YoY.
New Listing decreased by -10% YoY.
3) 40% of homeowners own their houses free-and-clear and another 30% or so locked in 30-year fixed rates in the 3-4% rate and are unlikely to sell or let their houses go to foreclosure for the next 20 years. I don't see much room for a crash with those stats alone.
>>>
This has been discussed before. If #3 is true, then we would not see an increase in active inventory.
See housing market and equity market works in a similar fashion. The market needs liquidity. Liquidity comes from the buyer.
Currently, 100% of market in US has a negative YoY of new listing. Good, the theory is right. BUT. for those who has to sell, they don't see enough buyer so in about 75% of the market, there's positive increase in active inventory. Literally we have more seller than buyer.
Active Inventory increases by 25% YoY.
New Listing decreased by -10% YoY.
I’d be curious how many properties have been pulled off the market over last 60 days. I’ve noticed quite a few got yanked recently.
Also I know west coast vs east coast (generalizing as still too large an area) there’s been a different pull back entirely across the regions. Cali has a massive population and corresponding housing. CA is being hit hard of course due to the high prices but then the rates being so high still keep payments similiar. You’d really have to look at it in slices to be honest.
I mean we saw it in 2008 with just FL and CA as an example. Some of the highest % of overall market and huge swings. Many states saw something more reasonable.
It’s too late to sell for peak “equity” now. Fed seems like they could pivot already, mortgage rates pulling back today because of what the BOE did (launched QE3).
What's funny is that BOE decide to restart QE after the UK pension fund almost collapsed yesterday if not due to gov. intervention. So the US home buyer is saved by the UK Gov.
However, the next test would be later when CPI is printed and whether Fed will continue to raise or not.
Currently, the market is decoupled from each other, Bak of England is running their own script to restart QE, US is QT ; and countries like Turkey where it has their own theory: to reduce inflation you have to reduce interest rate :) LOL
We really don't know which grandpa theory is really working in 2022 super-complicated Financial world.
3) 40% of homeowners own their houses free-and-clear and another 30% or so locked in 30-year fixed rates in the 3-4% rate and are unlikely to sell or let their houses go to foreclosure for the next 20 years. I don't see much room for a crash with those stats alone.
>>>
This has been discussed before. If #3 is true, then we would not see an increase in active inventory.
See housing market and equity market works in a similar fashion. The market needs liquidity. Liquidity comes from the buyer.
Currently, 100% of market in US has a negative YoY of new listing. Good, the theory is right. BUT. for those who has to sell, they don't see enough buyer so in about 75% of the market, there's positive increase in active inventory. Literally we have more seller than buyer.
Active Inventory increases by 25% YoY.
New Listing decreased by -10% YoY.
I’d be curious how many properties have been pulled off the market over last 60 days. I’ve noticed quite a few got yanked recently.
Also I know west coast vs east coast (generalizing as still too large an area) there’s been a different pull back entirely across the regions. Cali has a massive population and corresponding housing. CA is being hit hard of course due to the high prices but then the rates being so high still keep payments similiar. You’d really have to look at it in slices to be honest.
I mean we saw it in 2008 with just FL and CA as an example. Some of the highest % of overall market and huge swings. Many states saw something more reasonable.
Yes it's called the rate sensitivity factor. I think the better indicator would be the "mortgage/middle-class income".
In a high cap rate market, it doesn't have a strong sensitivity to rate adjustment.
In a low cap rate market, the market is very sensitive to rate adjustment and thus more volatile to repricing.
Someone in Twin Cities,MN with someone from Phoenix and Bay Area will take a look from a different lens altogether as the market is entirely different.
It's like buying a car: Tesla or Kia Rio. The interest rate differences don't matter for Kia Rio buyers as the base price is cheap ; while for Tesla buyer any 1% interest changes means a more drastic payment.
3) 40% of homeowners own their houses free-and-clear and another 30% or so locked in 30-year fixed rates in the 3-4% rate and are unlikely to sell or let their houses go to foreclosure for the next 20 years. I don't see much room for a crash with those stats alone.
>>>
This has been discussed before. If #3 is true, then we would not see an increase in active inventory.
See housing market and equity market works in a similar fashion. The market needs liquidity. Liquidity comes from the buyer.
Currently, 100% of market in US has a negative YoY of new listing. Good, the theory is right. BUT. for those who has to sell, they don't see enough buyer so in about 75% of the market, there's positive increase in active inventory. Literally we have more seller than buyer.
Active Inventory increases by 25% YoY.
New Listing decreased by -10% YoY.
I’d be curious how many properties have been pulled off the market over last 60 days. I’ve noticed quite a few got yanked recently.
Also I know west coast vs east coast (generalizing as still too large an area) there’s been a different pull back entirely across the regions. Cali has a massive population and corresponding housing. CA is being hit hard of course due to the high prices but then the rates being so high still keep payments similiar. You’d really have to look at it in slices to be honest.
I mean we saw it in 2008 with just FL and CA as an example. Some of the highest % of overall market and huge swings. Many states saw something more reasonable.
Yes it's called the rate sensitivity factor. I think the better indicator would be the "mortgage/middle-class income".
In a high cap rate market, it doesn't have a strong sensitivity to rate adjustment.
In a low cap rate market, the market is very sensitive to rate adjustment and thus more volatile to repricing.
Someone in Twin Cities,MN with someone from Phoenix and Bay Area will take a look from a different lens altogether as the market is entirely different.
It's like buying a car: Tesla or Kia Rio. The interest rate differences don't matter for Kia Rio buyers as the base price is cheap ; while for Tesla buyer any 1% interest changes means a more drastic payment.
100%. So the big question for me though is some of that top 30% end of market. Last 3 years we’ve all seen how much cash is out there both private and institutional. W2’s have been very strong, for a lot of folks for years, and they have the cash because of it. I finally had to change my strategy because I couldn’t buy quickly enough in the current market. And I was offering cash deals to close quick but then of course switch to loan before close.
I still think there is a lot of money out there and that’s another thing to stretch the price point and keep the drop from going too far. People need to put their money somewhere to make money and real estate is still a long term protection from many things when it comes to economics.
@James Hamling you forgot to mention all the tech debt that comes from outsourcing across seas… I have seen multiple companies outsource their systems only to pay multiples to have those same systems redone. Just like anything else you pay for what you get …
Afraid of that lurking R.E. market collapse?
Ready to stock pile some $$$$ to get ready to jump on all those FIRE SALE hot deals soon to come at pennies on the dollar?!
Well boy-OH-boy do I got a deal for you!
Crazy Jimmy is your guy! He's got cash to burn and he's so dumb he doesn't see this barn-burner of a deal coming so he's ready to help take that nasty-ole performing property off your hands TODAY! And he won't even price in this collapse in process, no-sir-e, nope, he's willing to give you the deal of a century and lock in at just 90% of todays fair market value! Just imagine those savings, with 30%+ drop in prices "just around the corner", holy-cow it's like taking candy from a carcass.
WHooo-wie, what a steal folks!
All you gotta do is reply to get this pre-doomsday deal and get yourself set before the sky falls and your left without anything to throw at those massive fire-sales sure to come, heck, just ask folks here, the end is just around the corner, act fast, sell now!
It’s too late to sell for peak “equity” now. Fed seems like they could pivot already, mortgage rates pulling back today because of what the BOE did (launched QE3). It’s comical how someone like yourself, who makes a living off the fed, at the expense of the people that you advocate for in “real jobs” yet you consistently bash the fed and the system. your whole career is based off of the fed manipulating the financial system and low interest rates. It’s also convenient how you happened to buy the market yesterday and you tell us after the markets rallied 2 percent today like you are the financial guru. the only reason stocks went up today is because of what BOE did today, but yeah England doesn’t matter. I’m trying to comprehend here if you are just trolling or if you are really as ignorant as you appear. Something tells me it’s the former, I know cheap money can make morons seem like geniuses, but some of your comments are pretty sound, so I’ll give you troll of the month award.
I am trying to recall when we dated, because boy-oh-boy your one heck of a stalker, rambling consistent nonsense, ignoring what I actually say, and really great at making up things I have not said.
I am done responding to your nonsense.
@James Hamling you forgot to mention all the tech debt that comes from outsourcing across seas… I have seen multiple companies outsource their systems only to pay multiples to have those same systems redone. Just like anything else you pay for what you get …
For 1 "full stack" in the us, I can get 2 PHD "full stacks" with 2 Masters level engineers supporting in India. Even at twice the labor, it's still net profitable. And in my experience. Many of the problems I have seen of such is a person/co taking a project and trying to fracture it across too many different teams. Or recruiting wrongly. Or both.
Can very well have a PM in U.S. directing a proficient outsource team, or even just contract out an entire project. Name your tech giant, this is what all of them are doing now, today.
3) 40% of homeowners own their houses free-and-clear and another 30% or so locked in 30-year fixed rates in the 3-4% rate and are unlikely to sell or let their houses go to foreclosure for the next 20 years. I don't see much room for a crash with those stats alone.
>>>
This has been discussed before. If #3 is true, then we would not see an increase in active inventory.
See housing market and equity market works in a similar fashion. The market needs liquidity. Liquidity comes from the buyer.
Currently, 100% of market in US has a negative YoY of new listing. Good, the theory is right. BUT. for those who has to sell, they don't see enough buyer so in about 75% of the market, there's positive increase in active inventory. Literally we have more seller than buyer.
Active Inventory increases by 25% YoY.
New Listing decreased by -10% YoY.
That's an interesting idea, problem is how do you know the actual # of buyers in a market? How do you know if it's growing, declining?
I think the only way to get any read on such is using listing times, % of listing to pending. That will show the velocity and velocity is a reflection of buyer volume.
Would be a great metric to have of "buyer vectoring". Very interesting. I wonder how MLS data could be utilized to build this.....
3) 40% of homeowners own their houses free-and-clear and another 30% or so locked in 30-year fixed rates in the 3-4% rate and are unlikely to sell or let their houses go to foreclosure for the next 20 years. I don't see much room for a crash with those stats alone.
>>>
This has been discussed before. If #3 is true, then we would not see an increase in active inventory.
See housing market and equity market works in a similar fashion. The market needs liquidity. Liquidity comes from the buyer.
Currently, 100% of market in US has a negative YoY of new listing. Good, the theory is right. BUT. for those who has to sell, they don't see enough buyer so in about 75% of the market, there's positive increase in active inventory. Literally we have more seller than buyer.
Active Inventory increases by 25% YoY.
New Listing decreased by -10% YoY.
That's an interesting idea, problem is how do you know the actual # of buyers in a market? How do you know if it's growing, declining?
I think the only way to get any read on such is using listing times, % of listing to pending. That will show the velocity and velocity is a reflection of buyer volume.
Would be a great metric to have of "buyer vectoring". Very interesting. I wonder how MLS data could be utilized to build this.....
Some things to consider:
1) Demographics. Over the next 10 years real estate values should be stable and rise although at a slower pace than the last 10 years due to the large millennial generation entering the housing market. After that, we could see a decline unless immigration makes up the difference for low birth rates.
2) All real estate is local. Here in Kansas City (and most of the Midwest), sometimes known as a linear market, we don't see much up and down even during major "crashes." However, in cyclical markets like LA, Miami, New York, etc, all bets are off.
3) 40% of homeowners own their houses free-and-clear and another 30% or so locked in 30-year fixed rates in the 3-4% rate and are unlikely to sell or let their houses go to foreclosure for the next 20 years. I don't see much room for a crash with those stats alone.
The millennial generation is slightly larger than the boomer generation now: "Millennials, whom we define as ages 23 to 38 in 2019, numbered 72.1 million, and Boomers (ages 55 to 73) numbered 71.6 million."
My question is whether they will be as prone to home ownership as previous generations..
Some things to consider:
1) Demographics. Over the next 10 years real estate values should be stable and rise although at a slower pace than the last 10 years due to the large millennial generation entering the housing market. After that, we could see a decline unless immigration makes up the difference for low birth rates.
2) All real estate is local. Here in Kansas City (and most of the Midwest), sometimes known as a linear market, we don't see much up and down even during major "crashes." However, in cyclical markets like LA, Miami, New York, etc, all bets are off.
3) 40% of homeowners own their houses free-and-clear and another 30% or so locked in 30-year fixed rates in the 3-4% rate and are unlikely to sell or let their houses go to foreclosure for the next 20 years. I don't see much room for a crash with those stats alone.
The millennial generation is slightly larger than the boomer generation now: "Millennials, whom we define as ages 23 to 38 in 2019, numbered 72.1 million, and Boomers (ages 55 to 73) numbered 71.6 million."
My question is whether they will be as prone to home ownership as previous generations..
If you knew that your properties and the market as a whole was going to drop next year by 50% percent, you are saying you wouldn't sell them to buy other more unique properties?
No I actually would not. 3 of these are for sure irreplaceable due to location, architecture, lack of anything similar, etc...and could not replaced for 50% for the current value.
But I definitely get the point of your question and it is a good one.....
A home in the hand is worth 2 in the build?
Some things to consider:
1) Demographics. Over the next 10 years real estate values should be stable and rise although at a slower pace than the last 10 years due to the large millennial generation entering the housing market. After that, we could see a decline unless immigration makes up the difference for low birth rates.
2) All real estate is local. Here in Kansas City (and most of the Midwest), sometimes known as a linear market, we don't see much up and down even during major "crashes." However, in cyclical markets like LA, Miami, New York, etc, all bets are off.
3) 40% of homeowners own their houses free-and-clear and another 30% or so locked in 30-year fixed rates in the 3-4% rate and are unlikely to sell or let their houses go to foreclosure for the next 20 years. I don't see much room for a crash with those stats alone.
The millennial generation is slightly larger than the boomer generation now: "Millennials, whom we define as ages 23 to 38 in 2019, numbered 72.1 million, and Boomers (ages 55 to 73) numbered 71.6 million."
My question is whether they will be as prone to home ownership as previous generations..
3) 40% of homeowners own their houses free-and-clear and another 30% or so locked in 30-year fixed rates in the 3-4% rate and are unlikely to sell or let their houses go to foreclosure for the next 20 years. I don't see much room for a crash with those stats alone.
>>>
This has been discussed before. If #3 is true, then we would not see an increase in active inventory.
See housing market and equity market works in a similar fashion. The market needs liquidity. Liquidity comes from the buyer.
Currently, 100% of market in US has a negative YoY of new listing. Good, the theory is right. BUT. for those who has to sell, they don't see enough buyer so in about 75% of the market, there's positive increase in active inventory. Literally we have more seller than buyer.
Active Inventory increases by 25% YoY.
New Listing decreased by -10% YoY.
That's an interesting idea, problem is how do you know the actual # of buyers in a market? How do you know if it's growing, declining?
I think the only way to get any read on such is using listing times, % of listing to pending. That will show the velocity and velocity is a reflection of buyer volume.
Would be a great metric to have of "buyer vectoring". Very interesting. I wonder how MLS data could be utilized to build this.....
Here's more data so we have a complete picture :
January 2022
Active Inventory YoY -31%
New Listing YoY -8%
May 2022
Active Inventory YoY 10%
New Listing YoY 4%
(Most inventories increased in Austin, Phoenix and Florida)
August 2022
Active Inventory increases by 25% YoY.
New Listing decreased by -10% YoY.
Bottomline: there's a crack in the housing market STARTING from May 2022 as there are more sellers than buyers.
If we want to make a balanced market where # of buyers equal to #seller, the mortgage rate has to adjust to March-April 2022 timeframe.
This is from aggregated MLS data James. I found this is the easiest method to check the balance between # buyer and seller.
Yeah I read the same, basically, it's the generation that prefers "pay-per-demand" / "pay-per-usage" rather than "ownership".
They may prefer renting to ownership as they will have more mobility
They like when facilities are available nearby
They prefer airbnb over hotel
prefer Uber/lyft than owning a car
prefer some places that's quite Instagrammable
prefer online banking
and of course online dating LOL
Class A MF is created for them