Housing crash deniers ???
Most Popular Reply
Greg ScottPro Member
Rental Property Investor · SE Michigan · Member since 2014 · 4k+ posts · 6k+ votesThe market may correct, but I firmly believe there won't be a crash. The reason is simple, equity.
Before 2008 people with no income could get liars loans and buy much more real estate than they could afford. We heard stories of cleaning ladies buying multiple million dollar homes. When home prices starting falling, the whole thing collapses like a house of cards because nobody had any equity. They couldn't sell and get out. We had cascading foreclosures creating a downward spiral.
Recently, prices have been surging. Given the laws passed after the Great Recession, appraisals and lending is highly restricted. Appraisals have not been keeping up with prices and lenders won't lend above appraised value. We sold a house in 2021 and in one day had 20 offers. Several of them had acceleration clauses stating they would pay more than anyone else up to $X. Both of them waived any financing contingency because they KNEW the house wouldn't appraise for what they were offering. They had to make up the difference with cash. Those people have a ton of equity in their homes. If they had to sell, they might take a haircut, but they aren't going to get foreclosed.
There is no house of cards here to come tumbling down.
2904 Replies
- New to Real Estate · 08527 · Member since 2022 · 10 posts · 5 votes4y
Quote from @David Song:
Housing prices will always go up. Buy anytime. - bigger pockets.com
Reality: numerous REI lost their life savings in 2009 and maybe 2022. Over leveraging, insufficient reserve, short term loan with balloon payment, etc.
Flippers bought in Q1 2022 will learn the lesson now. Many of them are losing their shirt. None will tell you publicly.
The price decline started in April 2022, and has been declining for the last 4 months. The bottom has not been reached yet. This is nationwide, from CA to Texas, everywhere.
Hey @David Song,
Would you be able to reply with where you got your data to determine housing prices have been dropping since April 2022? Thank you! - Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes4y
That’s true but the wage increases have blown up in certain fields. For example, I know a concrete guy who is making 400k a year running his own business. Before Covid, he made around 100k. He’s not expecting to make 400k every year going forward. A lot of construction jobs are similar in this area. When the work dries up, people will lower their asking prices. When companies lay people off, they don’t need to hire at the same price level if they overpaid for someone during Covid due to the supply issue. Yes, I’m not going to argue that wages don’t drop historically, but in housing, the wages blew up only due to so much housing demand and fewer workers, I think in targeted fields wages and and likely will come down.
That's business income, not a wage.
Moving forward just expect income and expense to raise simultaneously.
For example, Amazon just announced they've increased their delivery guy, this is just too match with the inflation rate. News:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/29...
I don't know how much the average wage per state is, but let's say it is $50k. Next year or so, the average wage salary would be $52k to $53k. People may think the company raised their salary but in fact, it's only an inflation adjustment. - Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes4y
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Now this is interesting. Just read 92% of mortgages today are under 5% interest (not surprised).
Half have rates under 3.5% (this surprised me). That’s a big number I figured most would be like 4-5%.
The people most tight on income will worry about interest rates the most. And should sit. The people who aren’t have the money to ignore the rate and also sit on property. in fact survey across 25 major markets saw a listing decline of 10.6% of the year before in the month of August. Happening already.
The stickiness on rates is going to be big. If you are 2.7% even when rates normalize in a few years you’ll be likely to pay double interest.
This is a bit similar to what James says. Biggerpocket's landlord is living in deflation mode. Our revenue increased because of rental income/cash flows. While the renter is living in inflation mode. We're super lucky because our mortgage is sub-3 for 30 years guaranteed by Freddie Mac.
The inflation is actually more felt by those who rent and have a large number of debts.
If you're a landlord, cash flow positive, have W2 income/stock options, and no debts. Our inflation is negative. - Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes4y
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Now this is interesting. Just read 92% of mortgages today are under 5% interest (not surprised).
Half have rates under 3.5% (this surprised me). That’s a big number I figured most would be like 4-5%.
The people most tight on income will worry about interest rates the most. And should sit. The people who aren’t have the money to ignore the rate and also sit on property. in fact survey across 25 major markets saw a listing decline of 10.6% of the year before in the month of August. Happening already.
The stickiness on rates is going to be big. If you are 2.7% even when rates normalize in a few years you’ll be likely to pay double interest.
This is a bit similar to what James says. Biggerpocket's landlord is living in deflation mode. Our revenue increased because of rental income/cash flows. While the renter is living in inflation mode. We're super lucky because our mortgage is sub-3 for 30 years guaranteed by Freddie Mac.
The inflation is actually more felt by those who rent and have a large number of debts.
If you're a landlord, cash flow positive, have W2 income/stock options, and no debts. Our inflation is negative.I was expecting a lot 4-5%. Even 3.5% - 5%. I’m a little shocked half are under 3.5% though. It’s starting to look more and more like the housing market is going to stagnate.
That said Credit Swiss doesn’t look too good. Keeping an eye on how that plays out because they are big enough of all financial markets will feel it - truly hoping thye force a UBS merger.
- Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes4y
I was expecting a lot 4-5%. Even 3.5% - 5%. I’m a little shocked half are under 3.5% though. It’s starting to look more and more like the housing market is going to stagnate.
That said Credit Swiss doesn’t look too good. Keeping an eye on how that plays out because they are big enough of all financial markets will feel it - truly hoping thye force a UBS merger.
If we see total refi applications between 2020-2021, the number spikes so high it could be 10-20% of total refinance applications between 2009 to 2022. Loan Depot takes my refi process so long that it only finished after 7 months.
Regarding Credit Suisse, it's just impossible for Fed to do QT while BOE and BOJ would like to continue QE, especially when Fed is raising the rate too high too fast. All these banks or nations will just collapse one by one [ what Fed did this year in my opinion is very stupid, it cause destabilization in Europe and the rest of the world ]
Yesterday there was news people in UK is demonstrating "cost of living", btw their mortgage is 2YARM and 5YARM so we may expect the housing/economy market in Europe to crash. - Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes4y
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
I was expecting a lot 4-5%. Even 3.5% - 5%. I’m a little shocked half are under 3.5% though. It’s starting to look more and more like the housing market is going to stagnate.
That said Credit Swiss doesn’t look too good. Keeping an eye on how that plays out because they are big enough of all financial markets will feel it - truly hoping thye force a UBS merger.
If we see total refi applications between 2020-2021, the number spikes so high it could be 10-20% of total refinance applications between 2009 to 2022. Loan Depot takes my refi process so long that it only finished after 7 months.
Regarding Credit Suisse, it's just impossible for Fed to do QT while BOE and BOJ would like to continue QE, especially when Fed is raising the rate too high too fast. All these banks or nations will just collapse one by one [ what Fed did this year in my opinion is very stupid, it cause destabilization in Europe and the rest of the world ]
Yesterday there was news people in UK is demonstrating "cost of living", btw their mortgage is 2YARM and 5YARM so we may expect the housing/economy market in Europe to crash.UK is complicated by the PM policies right now and also the fallout from brexit. Not going to predict that market.
And yes I’m assuming the expedited fed meeting has to do with some of this though.
- Real Estate Broker · Redwood City, CA · Member since 2014 · 679 posts · 888 votes4yFrom walking in the doors and monitoring local market. If you look for the news to tell you market condition, it is usually a couple months lag. In q1 2022, Bay Area market was still red hot. In march, there was still bidding wars for almost all properties. 500 k above asking was kind of normal at that time. People were crazy bidding up prices. In APRIL, SUDDENDLY, the atmosphere changed.
Quote from @CJ Lounsbury:
Quote from @David Song:
Housing prices will always go up. Buy anytime. - bigger pockets.com
Reality: numerous REI lost their life savings in 2009 and maybe 2022. Over leveraging, insufficient reserve, short term loan with balloon payment, etc.
Flippers bought in Q1 2022 will learn the lesson now. Many of them are losing their shirt. None will tell you publicly.
The price decline started in April 2022, and has been declining for the last 4 months. The bottom has not been reached yet. This is nationwide, from CA to Texas, everywhere.
Hey @David Song,
Would you be able to reply with where you got your data to determine housing prices have been dropping since April 2022? Thank you!
The person who knows the market best is the title company escrow officers, who handles a large number of pending transactions. They knows the market better than local realtors, and way earlier than news media. My escrow officer was the first person telling me that the market changed. I investigated and found that was true. Buyers suddenly disappeared. No more bidding wars. Price cut, which I have not seen for many years, started gradually in May and afterwards.
Remember April to September is normally the prime time for price appreciation. This year it’s not. - Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes4y
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
It's in the news already, some banks are reducing CRE funding this year.
Last call for @James Hamling to pivot, and accepting a minimum 10 percent national drop in the median home price by end of next year.
Ehh him and I have both been saying 10-15%. So not sure why you are backing down that from the 20-30% we’ve been seeing….
Joe is BLOCKED, he know's he's blocked, that's why he enjoys saying my name with complete garbage, misrepresentations and assorted BS. Joe, work on moving out of Mom's basement first.
Troll's......
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes4y
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
I was expecting a lot 4-5%. Even 3.5% - 5%. I’m a little shocked half are under 3.5% though. It’s starting to look more and more like the housing market is going to stagnate.
That said Credit Swiss doesn’t look too good. Keeping an eye on how that plays out because they are big enough of all financial markets will feel it - truly hoping thye force a UBS merger.
If we see total refi applications between 2020-2021, the number spikes so high it could be 10-20% of total refinance applications between 2009 to 2022. Loan Depot takes my refi process so long that it only finished after 7 months.
Regarding Credit Suisse, it's just impossible for Fed to do QT while BOE and BOJ would like to continue QE, especially when Fed is raising the rate too high too fast. All these banks or nations will just collapse one by one [ what Fed did this year in my opinion is very stupid, it cause destabilization in Europe and the rest of the world ]
Yesterday there was news people in UK is demonstrating "cost of living", btw their mortgage is 2YARM and 5YARM so we may expect the housing/economy market in Europe to crash.UK is complicated by the PM policies right now and also the fallout from brexit. Not going to predict that market.
And yes I’m assuming the expedited fed meeting has to do with some of this though.
And since the Queens "retirement" in U.K. it's been a list of nations serving notice to the reigning wet-towel that they are in process or intention of LEAVING the union. The UK has all there own turmoil they ever need to throw there system into a complete mess, they don't need anything from U.S> to do that at the moment.
But, I am sure there will be plenty to report from "Mom's Basement" on how it's just because of the U.S. markets/ Fed/ whatever.
Just a little FYI, that kind of narcissistic ignorance is exactly why so many in this world HATE Americans, it's that obsession that everything is always about the U.S. and nothing else exists.
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes4y
Quote from @Adam Christopher Zaleski:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Bill B.:
Thank goodness they bought a home then or they’d be homeless. Rents are up 20-30% while their payment stayed the same. Sure they could sell and walk away with a pretty healthy gain. But rent would eat that up within a year or two and then back to homeless.
You cant count the number of people who didn’t buy for the last 2 years because they were promised a housing crash was coming. Now prices are 30% higher and interest rates have doubled. They’ll never be able to buy a home, even if prices did drop 20%. They’re pretty much screwed for life.
The “experts” have been predicting a crash for at least 12 years. They want to make sure they get credit for predicting it this time. The news made hero’s out of those who saw it last time and everyone wants to be a hero. So they runaround yelling fire fire fire. Go ahead and search BP for housing crash coming. Your computer will probably crash with the number of results.
Ahh, thanks Bill. I knew folks like you were still around... ones in the camp of "if you didn't buy during the bubble, you'll never be able to buy". Thanks for making your stance known.
Also, which experts were predicting a crash in 2011-2019? I personally didn't hear a lot of talk about a crash in that timespan. The economy and the housing market was in a generally healthy place - very different from where we are now economically.
The owner of this website used to host a podcast and has been predicting a housing crash since 2015. Go back and listen to the episodes in June - August 2015. Lots of talk about a housing crash that never came.
I do not see any distressed sellers in my markets that would provoke a housing crash. I just heard from the podcast "on the market" last week that the median credit score of a mortgage holder right now is 773.
Wow, 773, that's kind of surprising.
That really calls into question what many are saying that the whole bull-run on sales last 2odd years was in-large 1st time homebuyers. Generally the entry buyers are in a 600's range, because again, 1st time buyer, most new buyers are buying once capable of such.
Makes a person wonder, what would happen if they do something jazzy with FHA, something to "mitigate" rate increase impact. Something like say interest only payment for first 3-5yrs? And before anyone says anything, no, I don't think politicians are smarter then that, nor do I think they care. Like 3rd graders with machine guns.
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes4y
Quote from @CJ Lounsbury:
Quote from @David Song:
Housing prices will always go up. Buy anytime. - bigger pockets.com
Reality: numerous REI lost their life savings in 2009 and maybe 2022. Over leveraging, insufficient reserve, short term loan with balloon payment, etc.
Flippers bought in Q1 2022 will learn the lesson now. Many of them are losing their shirt. None will tell you publicly.
The price decline started in April 2022, and has been declining for the last 4 months. The bottom has not been reached yet. This is nationwide, from CA to Texas, everywhere.
Hey @David Song,
Would you be able to reply with where you got your data to determine housing prices have been dropping since April 2022? Thank you!I put charts on here showing the MN MLS real time that is NOT collapsing or falling like they keep saying is happening "coast to coast" but these Trolls keep ignoring real facts, data and numbers.
Clearly BP is becoming the land of TROLL LOSS-PORN.
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes4y
Quote from @Matt Kalish:
that is pretty wild. 6% appraisal job in 2 months. usually it takes a while for the banks and appraisers to adjust. My guess is the banks are getting worried right now. There very well may be a liquidity issue coming up soon.
Not surprised.
There was a sizable event that recently happened in the world of appraisal where some people are trying to sue there appraiser for giving them there appraisals, basiclly having buyers remorse and trying to use the appraiser as a sacrificial lamb. Since this recent event, appraisals vary wildly appraiser too appraiser. Some have really tightened the belt and are trying to do things as conservative as possible, even to point of under appraise if have to.
Then there is the obvious fact that anyone who does R.E. FT will know, appraiser too appraiser things very a lot, same as inspector too inspector. If you have never had to argue a bad appraisal, well your not in R.E. on any scale or regularity. It happens all the time.
I just closed one and appraisal came back almost $20k higher then what we were looking for or expecting. Does that mean the market is on a rocket to the moon again? I think it has a lot more to do with that appraiser.
I have an MAI on staff to do in-house reviews. We see it all the time that she reviews an appraisal and hear from her office "what the..... where's the..." then she comes and asks what clown did the appraisal, lol. I don't consider any appraiser worth a squat until they are MAI or have commercial appraisal under the belt. Those who are just residential, massive difference from the two above, MASSIVE.
So from the info I say it doesn't mean anything, also because we have NOT seen a 6% decline in market. We still have units moving measured in hours/ days, it's not the insanity of 20 offers 20% above list in first 2 days, but full price+ is still the norm in 10 days or less.
Hey, your so dead set it's a market crash, ok, sell me your properties. I will buy ALL of them, now. Or, do you not own any investment properties?
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes4y
Quote from @David Song:
From walking in the doors and monitoring local market. If you look for the news to tell you market condition, it is usually a couple months lag. In q1 2022, Bay Area market was still red hot. In march, there was still bidding wars for almost all properties. 500 k above asking was kind of normal at that time. People were crazy bidding up prices. In APRIL, SUDDENDLY, the atmosphere changed.Quote from @CJ Lounsbury:
Quote from @David Song:
Housing prices will always go up. Buy anytime. - bigger pockets.com
Reality: numerous REI lost their life savings in 2009 and maybe 2022. Over leveraging, insufficient reserve, short term loan with balloon payment, etc.
Flippers bought in Q1 2022 will learn the lesson now. Many of them are losing their shirt. None will tell you publicly.
The price decline started in April 2022, and has been declining for the last 4 months. The bottom has not been reached yet. This is nationwide, from CA to Texas, everywhere.
Hey @David Song,
Would you be able to reply with where you got your data to determine housing prices have been dropping since April 2022? Thank you!
The person who knows the market best is the title company escrow officers, who handles a large number of pending transactions. They knows the market better than local realtors, and way earlier than news media. My escrow officer was the first person telling me that the market changed. I investigated and found that was true. Buyers suddenly disappeared. No more bidding wars. Price cut, which I have not seen for many years, started gradually in May and afterwards.
Remember April to September is normally the prime time for price appreciation. This year it’s not.In MN we had double digit appreciation, YOY for April-Sept.. It kept getting revised as year went because the appreciation kept smashing through he ceiling of projections. Last I recall it was somewhere around 14%.
I don't know of follow anything CA, to be honest you couldn't give a property in CA, so I can't say anything about what's going on in CA. But this speaking as though the whole world is crashing because your local grotesquely overpriced CA market, decades over-cooked and inflated, well could it be just a reflection of people in CA getting a clue and opting out of the CA insanity?
I know, so many in CA market can't grasp the notion that CA is anything but the center of the universe, but there is a whole lot the the nation and with just as good income potentials, a fraction of the housing cost, and a lot less of the CA issues which range a list to long to bother putting here.
CA is overdue for a reconning.
- Realtor · Gatlinburg · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 957 votes4y
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Matt Kalish:
that is pretty wild. 6% appraisal job in 2 months. usually it takes a while for the banks and appraisers to adjust. My guess is the banks are getting worried right now. There very well may be a liquidity issue coming up soon.
Not surprised.
There was a sizable event that recently happened in the world of appraisal where some people are trying to sue there appraiser for giving them there appraisals, basiclly having buyers remorse and trying to use the appraiser as a sacrificial lamb. Since this recent event, appraisals vary wildly appraiser too appraiser. Some have really tightened the belt and are trying to do things as conservative as possible, even to point of under appraise if have to.
Then there is the obvious fact that anyone who does R.E. FT will know, appraiser too appraiser things very a lot, same as inspector too inspector. If you have never had to argue a bad appraisal, well your not in R.E. on any scale or regularity. It happens all the time.
I just closed one and appraisal came back almost $20k higher then what we were looking for or expecting. Does that mean the market is on a rocket to the moon again? I think it has a lot more to do with that appraiser.
I have an MAI on staff to do in-house reviews. We see it all the time that she reviews an appraisal and hear from her office "what the..... where's the..." then she comes and asks what clown did the appraisal, lol. I don't consider any appraiser worth a squat until they are MAI or have commercial appraisal under the belt. Those who are just residential, massive difference from the two above, MASSIVE.
So from the info I say it doesn't mean anything, also because we have NOT seen a 6% decline in market. We still have units moving measured in hours/ days, it's not the insanity of 20 offers 20% above list in first 2 days, but full price+ is still the norm in 10 days or less.
Hey, your so dead set it's a market crash, ok, sell me your properties. I will buy ALL of them, now. Or, do you not own any investment properties?
I’ll sell you my “equity” based on peak values. We can let it expire end of 2023. I’d like a buyout option if the fed pivots and reinflates the bubble (definitely not ruling that out). Find an escrow that will invest in 1 year treasury at around 4 percent. I highly doubt you have the cash to buyout my equity, but if you do, PM me and we can make arrangements. I wont sell the asset to you because the income I generate on my properties is too substantial. I don’t care about losing 20-30 percent phantom equity, I use the cash flow to stack cash, and when prices drop further I’ll buy more. Since you went there with me (questioning my investments), I have to say, after seeing your website, you only have 4 listings and they are all monthly rentals? Your going to need more than just commission on LTR to buy my equity. And you are not even getting asking price…what’s this…..this you??? 7 percent price cut on a rental? I’m sure this is just an expert strategy by you though, I’m sure you had 40 applicants within first week then you cut the price to get a bidding war!
very convenient it’s a “7 percent” drop which is what the appraisal came back with over a 2 month window on an investor I know in Minneapolis.Don’t worry Sir James, I still like you buddy. Apart from being wrong on this topic, you make some really entertaining posts!
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes4y
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Matt Kalish:
that is pretty wild. 6% appraisal job in 2 months. usually it takes a while for the banks and appraisers to adjust. My guess is the banks are getting worried right now. There very well may be a liquidity issue coming up soon.
Not surprised.
There was a sizable event that recently happened in the world of appraisal where some people are trying to sue there appraiser for giving them there appraisals, basiclly having buyers remorse and trying to use the appraiser as a sacrificial lamb. Since this recent event, appraisals vary wildly appraiser too appraiser. Some have really tightened the belt and are trying to do things as conservative as possible, even to point of under appraise if have to.
Then there is the obvious fact that anyone who does R.E. FT will know, appraiser too appraiser things very a lot, same as inspector too inspector. If you have never had to argue a bad appraisal, well your not in R.E. on any scale or regularity. It happens all the time.
I just closed one and appraisal came back almost $20k higher then what we were looking for or expecting. Does that mean the market is on a rocket to the moon again? I think it has a lot more to do with that appraiser.
I have an MAI on staff to do in-house reviews. We see it all the time that she reviews an appraisal and hear from her office "what the..... where's the..." then she comes and asks what clown did the appraisal, lol. I don't consider any appraiser worth a squat until they are MAI or have commercial appraisal under the belt. Those who are just residential, massive difference from the two above, MASSIVE.
So from the info I say it doesn't mean anything, also because we have NOT seen a 6% decline in market. We still have units moving measured in hours/ days, it's not the insanity of 20 offers 20% above list in first 2 days, but full price+ is still the norm in 10 days or less.
Hey, your so dead set it's a market crash, ok, sell me your properties. I will buy ALL of them, now. Or, do you not own any investment properties?
I’ll sell you my “equity” based on peak values. We can let it expire end of 2023. I’d like a buyout option if the fed pivots and reinflates the bubble (definitely not ruling that out). Find an escrow that will invest in 1 year treasury at around 4 percent. I highly doubt you have the cash to buyout my equity, but if you do, PM me and we can make arrangements. I wont sell the asset to you because the income I generate on my properties is too substantial. I don’t care about losing 20-30 percent phantom equity, I use the cash flow to stack cash, and when prices drop further I’ll buy more. Since you went there with me (questioning my investments), I have to say, after seeing your website, you only have 4 listings and they are all monthly rentals? Your going to need more than just commission on LTR to buy my equity. And you are not even getting asking price…what’s this…..this you??? 7 percent price cut on a rental? I’m sure this is just an expert strategy by you though, I’m sure you had 40 applicants within first week then you cut the price to get a bidding war!
very convenient it’s a “7 percent” drop which is what the appraisal came back with over a 2 month window on an investor I know in Minneapolis.Don’t worry Sir James, I still like you buddy. Apart from being wrong on this topic, you make some really entertaining posts!
Joe I have you blocked, and for good reason you weird stalker! I have no idea WTF your rambling about; sell me your equity but your gonna hold the property? Do you have any idea how stupid you sound?
And not getting market rents? Again, WTF are you talking about? You annoying moronic children trolling away.
I have half a dozen transaction going on right now, not to mention the existing portfolio carried, the assorted off-market business. Good job, you looked at my available unit rental listings, congratulations, you nearly have a clue.
And if your inventing price movements because of how things view to you vs Zillow zestimates, Lol, again that's a "you" thing on the ignorance scale buddy. News flash, zillow is not an appraisal system, nor is it accurate, it's a ball-park "guesstimate" and depending on what factors it's grabbing it can be close to correct, high, low etc..
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes4yLol, by the way, for all out there, notice the sold price for this house? $169k. Notice that rent? $2,500. Yeah, "oh no, we will have to take a discount of getting only $2,500mnth on a $169k property" lol.
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Matt Kalish:
that is pretty wild. 6% appraisal job in 2 months. usually it takes a while for the banks and appraisers to adjust. My guess is the banks are getting worried right now. There very well may be a liquidity issue coming up soon.
Not surprised.
There was a sizable event that recently happened in the world of appraisal where some people are trying to sue there appraiser for giving them there appraisals, basiclly having buyers remorse and trying to use the appraiser as a sacrificial lamb. Since this recent event, appraisals vary wildly appraiser too appraiser. Some have really tightened the belt and are trying to do things as conservative as possible, even to point of under appraise if have to.
Then there is the obvious fact that anyone who does R.E. FT will know, appraiser too appraiser things very a lot, same as inspector too inspector. If you have never had to argue a bad appraisal, well your not in R.E. on any scale or regularity. It happens all the time.
I just closed one and appraisal came back almost $20k higher then what we were looking for or expecting. Does that mean the market is on a rocket to the moon again? I think it has a lot more to do with that appraiser.
I have an MAI on staff to do in-house reviews. We see it all the time that she reviews an appraisal and hear from her office "what the..... where's the..." then she comes and asks what clown did the appraisal, lol. I don't consider any appraiser worth a squat until they are MAI or have commercial appraisal under the belt. Those who are just residential, massive difference from the two above, MASSIVE.
So from the info I say it doesn't mean anything, also because we have NOT seen a 6% decline in market. We still have units moving measured in hours/ days, it's not the insanity of 20 offers 20% above list in first 2 days, but full price+ is still the norm in 10 days or less.
Hey, your so dead set it's a market crash, ok, sell me your properties. I will buy ALL of them, now. Or, do you not own any investment properties?
I’ll sell you my “equity” based on peak values. We can let it expire end of 2023. I’d like a buyout option if the fed pivots and reinflates the bubble (definitely not ruling that out). Find an escrow that will invest in 1 year treasury at around 4 percent. I highly doubt you have the cash to buyout my equity, but if you do, PM me and we can make arrangements. I wont sell the asset to you because the income I generate on my properties is too substantial. I don’t care about losing 20-30 percent phantom equity, I use the cash flow to stack cash, and when prices drop further I’ll buy more. Since you went there with me (questioning my investments), I have to say, after seeing your website, you only have 4 listings and they are all monthly rentals? Your going to need more than just commission on LTR to buy my equity. And you are not even getting asking price…what’s this…..this you??? 7 percent price cut on a rental? I’m sure this is just an expert strategy by you though, I’m sure you had 40 applicants within first week then you cut the price to get a bidding war!
very convenient it’s a “7 percent” drop which is what the appraisal came back with over a 2 month window on an investor I know in Minneapolis.Don’t worry Sir James, I still like you buddy. Apart from being wrong on this topic, you make some really entertaining posts!
Joe I have you blocked, and for good reason you weird stalker! I have no idea WTF your rambling about; sell me your equity but your gonna hold the property? Do you have any idea how stupid you sound?
And not getting market rents? Again, WTF are you talking about? You annoying moronic children trolling away.
I have half a dozen transaction going on right now, not to mention the existing portfolio carried, the assorted off-market business. Good job, you looked at my available unit rental listings, congratulations, you nearly have a clue.
And if your inventing price movements because of how things view to you vs Zillow zestimates, Lol, again that's a "you" thing on the ignorance scale buddy. News flash, zillow is not an appraisal system, nor is it accurate, it's a ball-park "guesstimate" and depending on what factors it's grabbing it can be close to correct, high, low etc..
And yes, doing an initial listing for first 4-odd days at a ridiculous price of, let's say $2,700, to then "update" a listing price downward to where you actually want to be, say $2,500, yes it IS a strategy of Price Conditioning.
I call it the "Kohl's Factor". If don't know, Kohl's is a wildly popular retail store that has a perpetual sale going on. People come in and commonly geek out say "OMG look at this, it's 20% off, we gotta get this $80 waffle maker, it's 20% off!".
It's the sale factor that drives people like nut's to jump on paying a price that if marked regularly, they'd blow it off, probably mentioning how it's too much.
Marking things up to purposefully mark it down to drive velocity of actions. - 4yBruce WoodruffPro MemberContractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votesMan, do I agree...I've been seeing the lead-up, and warning people on this forum and others for a couple years now. It's the proverbial house of cards...
Quote from @James Hamling:
CA is overdue for a reconning.
It's amazing how the mindset of the pro-Cali camp is so entrenched. "prices will never go down', 'the demand will always be high here', Etc.....
But then I guess they've been living in the middle of the 'dream' for so long they can't see the reality....? - Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes4y
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
But then I guess they've been living in the middle of the 'dream' for so long they can't see the reality....?I believe you just defined "Californication" to a T.
- 4yBruce WoodruffPro MemberContractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
But then I guess they've been living in the middle of the 'dream' for so long they can't see the reality....?I believe you just defined "Californication" to a T.
Yeah I suppose so. I've had so many of those still there tell me stuff using the words 'ever' and 'never'. Makes me laugh....maybe I'm just old, but there ain't no such thing.....
- Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes4y
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
But then I guess they've been living in the middle of the 'dream' for so long they can't see the reality....?I believe you just defined "Californication" to a T.
Yeah I suppose so. I've had so many of those still there tell me stuff using the words 'ever' and 'never'. Makes me laugh....maybe I'm just old, but there ain't no such thing.....
California's economy is definitely a strange place. You work less You get more money ; both from job and real estate ....... as long as one is working at the correct company.
But yes, the money dries up now. For sure it's going down LOL - 4yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Man, do I agree...I've been seeing the lead-up, and warning people on this forum and others for a couple years now. It's the proverbial house of cards...Quote from @James Hamling:
CA is overdue for a reconning.
It's amazing how the mindset of the pro-Cali camp is so entrenched. "prices will never go down', 'the demand will always be high here', Etc.....
But then I guess they've been living in the middle of the 'dream' for so long they can't see the reality....?not really.. I owned a HML company in Oakland in the late 80s and was involved in a large ( 540 lot project in Nevada county at the same time)
after the earth quake and the war prices pummeted I had loans on houses in SF that apprasied in 88 ish for 2 mil went to foreclosure sale for 900k this on Green St. Meg ryan and her hubby lived next door :) the Nevada county project I built out phase 1 of 120 lots had them all reserved prior to the war for 100 to 150k per lot CLOSED NOT ONE that whole project got lost to the bank and bond holders.. ERGO the reason I left CA and starting logging IN the NW U could turn logs into cash in 90 days :) there was extreme price compression from 89 to 94 ish then values kind of stayed stagnet and the next run up started about 98 and you know the rest of the history.. I sold my Palo Alto house in 92 for right at 500k 900 sq ft and moved to Napa valley bought a home there that was purchased for 650 in 89 I paid 510k for it in 92.. My brother in law bought a home in Los Altos hlls that was valued at 2.5 in 89 same thing he bought in 93 for 1.2 its worth every bit of 6 or 7 million today.. paid for I suspect he could care less if the value dropped 1mil
so values have not always gone up up and up in the SF bay area cant speak for so cal.. and then you have the rest of CA as you eluded to central to eastern that is no comparison to the Bay Area.. I was just in Sonoma last week.. checking on my little peice of dirt I sold for 2 mil 2 years ago I paid 27k for it in 96 ish.. just sat on in let development come to us.. So lots of ups and down in CA.
- Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes4y
Here's the August Mortgage report from Blacknight, just released.
https://www.blackknightinc.com...
Read page 13 and page 14. Leading the "price reductions" are San Jose/San Francisco/Seattle from 13%...And the most unaffordable markets are.........Sacramento and Seattle
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes4y
I see a lot of trouble coming in analysis, as I think many are going to confuse market specific adjustments as being a translation of the entire national market.
While the entire national market has seen a significant bull-run, the degrees to such vary wildly across the nation. Seattle is a good example of such.
For myself personally, I am going to be looking to replacement cost's as a baseline by which to measure by. This will give a more accurate read to fundamental market movements vs market corrections, and degree of potentiality for such, IMO.
Which, we do have markets pacing BELOW replacement cost still. And plenty who moon-shoot over such. Land cost's can rapidly adjust and step down from some insane highs, where as replacement costs compiling of the dozens upon dozens of inputs to such, provide a much more stabilized potential of adjustment. Lumber is just 1 of those inputs, there is all the various other material inputs and all the labor inputs. You'd have to get some massive economic events to create a 20% drop in all those, on level of '08' or worse given limited labor pool vs '08'.
- Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes4y
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
I was expecting a lot 4-5%. Even 3.5% - 5%. I’m a little shocked half are under 3.5% though. It’s starting to look more and more like the housing market is going to stagnate.
That said Credit Swiss doesn’t look too good. Keeping an eye on how that plays out because they are big enough of all financial markets will feel it - truly hoping thye force a UBS merger.
If we see total refi applications between 2020-2021, the number spikes so high it could be 10-20% of total refinance applications between 2009 to 2022. Loan Depot takes my refi process so long that it only finished after 7 months.
Regarding Credit Suisse, it's just impossible for Fed to do QT while BOE and BOJ would like to continue QE, especially when Fed is raising the rate too high too fast. All these banks or nations will just collapse one by one [ what Fed did this year in my opinion is very stupid, it cause destabilization in Europe and the rest of the world ]
Yesterday there was news people in UK is demonstrating "cost of living", btw their mortgage is 2YARM and 5YARM so we may expect the housing/economy market in Europe to crash.UK is complicated by the PM policies right now and also the fallout from brexit. Not going to predict that market.
And yes I’m assuming the expedited fed meeting has to do with some of this though.
United Nations, yes United Nations today just ask Fed to STOP the rate increase.
First time happening in the free world.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u... - Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes4y
Quote from @James Hamling:
I see a lot of trouble coming in analysis, as I think many are going to confuse market specific adjustments as being a translation of the entire national market.
While the entire national market has seen a significant bull-run, the degrees to such vary wildly across the nation. Seattle is a good example of such.
Yes it's clearly defined in BlackKnight's mortgage report on page 20.
If your market is on the top left of the chart, you would not feel price reduction.
If your market is on the right side and especially right bottom of the market, you will feel the price reduction.
It's so clear from this presentation.
Again link is https://www.blackknightinc.com...
