Housing crash deniers ???

Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes

Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions.

However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct.

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Greg ScottPro Member

Rental Property Investor · SE Michigan · Member since 2014 · 4k+ posts · 6k+ votes

The market may correct, but I firmly believe there won't be a crash. The reason is simple, equity.

Before 2008 people with no income could get liars loans and buy much more real estate than they could afford. We heard stories of cleaning ladies buying multiple million dollar homes. When home prices starting falling, the whole thing collapses like a house of cards because nobody had any equity. They couldn't sell and get out. We had cascading foreclosures creating a downward spiral.

Recently, prices have been surging. Given the laws passed after the Great Recession, appraisals and lending is highly restricted. Appraisals have not been keeping up with prices and lenders won't lend above appraised value. We sold a house in 2021 and in one day had 20 offers. Several of them had acceleration clauses stating they would pay more than anyone else up to $X. Both of them waived any financing contingency because they KNEW the house wouldn't appraise for what they were offering. They had to make up the difference with cash. Those people have a ton of equity in their homes. If they had to sell, they might take a haircut, but they aren't going to get foreclosed.

There is no house of cards here to come tumbling down.

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Carlos Ptriawan
Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

I'm of the mindset that this is going to be a slow-motion car crash. I don't think that a month or two is going to have a crazy impact, no cliff in sight. Let 5-6 months of 6+ rates sink in to see the full impact on values. I don't see them leveling out for a while. I think it's going to be a slow, steady decrease in values as long as we have rates at or above 6.

.... We are now at an inflection point hence there're arrays of different opinions, even gov. comments and the financial world is different as well, I think it's normal as the stabilization has been very early and not yet obvious.

Just saying I'm less bearish compared to August based on a data-driven model.

TBH since the Fed started to feel the pain with current rates as Fed is losing money in October and the bank is now making riskless money.
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James Hamling
Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
3y
Quote from @John Carbone:

@James Hamling seems like my call is coming right on que here. Seasonal adjustments claims are proving to be a myth. Short term 12-18 month 20-30 percent drops and then prices skyrocket higher like you claim, you are just a year to two too early .

Well, let's see who's forecasting better matches the reality that comes.
Remember in my forecast I have a running commentary of the Lynch-pin Theory that goes along, which none of these fancy charts and analysis you pull from take into account. These things your looking at are a very small select data segment, and then projects it forward in a kind of tunnel vision. Which is why they are so wildly inaccurate the further out they view, and have such sizable changes so consistently.
As I have said, watch for policy actions of interdiction in the next 8-12 mnths now to effect some kind of "affordability in housing". It will be coming, without doubt.
As for the "crash" you keep calling for, need I remind it only exists in your charts, still, not in reality. You've been calling for a "crash" for weeks, and it doesn't happen. It's continued to be something "just around the corner", consistently. 20-30% drop in national median home prices is just NOT a realistic thing, it's not, and there is a mountain of data to prove such. Just do some research on '08', because what your calling for is on same level if not bigger, FYI. It's easy to call it out as NOT viable.
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James Hamling
Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

I'm of the mindset that this is going to be a slow-motion car crash. I don't think that a month or two is going to have a crazy impact, no cliff in sight. Let 5-6 months of 6+ rates sink in to see the full impact on values. I don't see them leveling out for a while. I think it's going to be a slow, steady decrease in values as long as we have rates at or above 6.

.... We are now at an inflection point hence there're arrays of different opinions, even gov. comments and the financial world is different as well, I think it's normal as the stabilization has been very early and not yet obvious.

Just saying I'm less bearish compared to August based on a data-driven model.

TBH since the Fed started to feel the pain with current rates as Fed is losing money in October and the bank is now making riskless money.

Huh.... Imagine if someone could have predicted this outcome....... Just sayin.
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Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:
I'm just net getting where the optimism is coming from. We're seeing pretty significant shifts in the market already, and this is only with data from Sep - which has rates that were locked quite a bit prior.

From Zillow as it's very accurate and having real-time updates.

Two aspects :
- home active inventory is almost zero growth MoM now with negative listing remaining negative MoM
- in Zillow most home sold in Sep has price in upper 5% , in July August it was noticeable -10 - 15% ranges

In the worst market (San Jose) we see stabilizing price between August-September data, for crash to happen August-Sep should reduce more than prev. mnth, it didn't happen. Crazy, the market is front-running Fed actions LOL.
Couple thoughts on this...

I know inventory had no growth, but demand has also tanked. I need to get updated stats, but even with the lack of new listings last time I checked (in DFW), the months supply of inventory increased. Therefore the low level of new listings was greater than the amount of sales, creating a net positive impact on inventory.

I don't think it's been enough time to evaluate value decrease. How could have values stabilized in Aug-Sep when a lot of home are lingering and seeing big price decreases. I'm seeing a lot of that in DFW. I don't think the data is going to reflect what's happening in the market until Dec/ Jan.

I'm of the mindset that this is going to be a slow-motion car crash. I don't think that a month or two is going to have a crazy impact, no cliff in sight. Let 5-6 months of 6+ rates sink in to see the full impact on values. I don't see them leveling out for a while. I think it's going to be a slow, steady decrease in values as long as we have rates at or above 6.

Demand falling was expected That's the belief most of us have is that most people will sit tight. If demand falls and it stagnates we are less likely to see a massive "crash" / adjustment.
I do think it's a little early but the other reason people see some positive is if inflation continues to slow and demand/rate increases slow - when the entire east coast has not had a negative impact there is reason to think it's just a small correction overall through the next 6 months.
Everything you and most here are pointing to is primarily West Coast towns impacted by rates the most. If things are starting to slow down, even if more pain is coming, there's a lot of the US that has just had slower demand but not necessarily any major change. So thats the reason to say it might not be too bad.
I've seen a lot of analysts point to hyper-regionalized, and it almost always is, but it feels like this is going to be more true to an extreme.

If the main driver of falling demand is rates and affordability, what's making you think that demand is going to increase beyond current levels? If demand stays where it is now (not based on data from Sep), which is basically floor level, how would prices stabilize? Inventory will slowly increase and the only way sellers sell is to lower prices.

Not only the west coast, look at Texas, specifically Austin and DFW.

Again, seems like our expectations are different. You seem to be seeing the only possibilities of a crash as something that happens immediately, I see it as something gradual over many months. The end result however, will be the same.

I do however, agree that this will be localized, meaning that the areas that has the most explosive price growth will be the ones that have the biggest fall. Some of the markets your referring to might not have experienced the inflationary housing bubblew to the same degree as others.
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Carlos Ptriawan
Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
3y
Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

I'm of the mindset that this is going to be a slow-motion car crash. I don't think that a month or two is going to have a crazy impact, no cliff in sight. Let 5-6 months of 6+ rates sink in to see the full impact on values. I don't see them leveling out for a while. I think it's going to be a slow, steady decrease in values as long as we have rates at or above 6.

.... We are now at an inflection point hence there're arrays of different opinions, even gov. comments and the financial world is different as well, I think it's normal as the stabilization has been very early and not yet obvious.

Just saying I'm less bearish compared to August based on a data-driven model.

TBH since the Fed started to feel the pain with current rates as Fed is losing money in October and the bank is now making riskless money.

Huh.... Imagine if someone could have predicted this outcome....... Just sayin.

...this is not chart that's showing downhill crash, it might even restart a new rebound LOL LOL
..
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James Hamling
Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:
I'm just net getting where the optimism is coming from. We're seeing pretty significant shifts in the market already, and this is only with data from Sep - which has rates that were locked quite a bit prior.

From Zillow as it's very accurate and having real-time updates.

Two aspects :
- home active inventory is almost zero growth MoM now with negative listing remaining negative MoM
- in Zillow most home sold in Sep has price in upper 5% , in July August it was noticeable -10 - 15% ranges

In the worst market (San Jose) we see stabilizing price between August-September data, for crash to happen August-Sep should reduce more than prev. mnth, it didn't happen. Crazy, the market is front-running Fed actions LOL.
Couple thoughts on this...

I know inventory had no growth, but demand has also tanked. I need to get updated stats, but even with the lack of new listings last time I checked (in DFW), the months supply of inventory increased. Therefore the low level of new listings was greater than the amount of sales, creating a net positive impact on inventory.

I don't think it's been enough time to evaluate value decrease. How could have values stabilized in Aug-Sep when a lot of home are lingering and seeing big price decreases. I'm seeing a lot of that in DFW. I don't think the data is going to reflect what's happening in the market until Dec/ Jan.

I'm of the mindset that this is going to be a slow-motion car crash. I don't think that a month or two is going to have a crazy impact, no cliff in sight. Let 5-6 months of 6+ rates sink in to see the full impact on values. I don't see them leveling out for a while. I think it's going to be a slow, steady decrease in values as long as we have rates at or above 6.

Demand falling was expected That's the belief most of us have is that most people will sit tight. If demand falls and it stagnates we are less likely to see a massive "crash" / adjustment.
I do think it's a little early but the other reason people see some positive is if inflation continues to slow and demand/rate increases slow - when the entire east coast has not had a negative impact there is reason to think it's just a small correction overall through the next 6 months.
Everything you and most here are pointing to is primarily West Coast towns impacted by rates the most. If things are starting to slow down, even if more pain is coming, there's a lot of the US that has just had slower demand but not necessarily any major change. So thats the reason to say it might not be too bad.
I've seen a lot of analysts point to hyper-regionalized, and it almost always is, but it feels like this is going to be more true to an extreme.

This highlights a point, and it's one that sooooo many are going to freak out over but we are seeing it in this data, so it's a fact. That is that, the West Coast market is the most UNSTABLE of the markets. It's a fact, people been warning of the CA decline for years to mob's of the CA-Obsessed saying it's impossible, that CA is the center of the universe! But, here it is, all of this is evidence of BOTH the weakness of the CA/West Coast market as a whole, to volatility in it from it's weakening basis, and how so many equate that whatever is happening in CA "MUST" be what the rest of the entire world is happening or about to happen, because again, CA is the center of existence.
CA's placement upon that pedestal is coming to end, these are the last days of CA as the gold-star of whatever. No doubt CA was "THE" state, so much so that it's afforded decades of neglect and abuse to come to a point of being surpassed by so many others. But it's here, the day of reckoning is upon CA. The coming years will be the age of CA's accountability, and it's gonna hurt, gonna hurt so dang bad. Chickens coming home to roost.
And as TX thrives, TN thrives, FL, MN, WI, SD, and so on and so fourth, CA will be an after thought for most. The smart $ and persons will leave in ever increasing masses for the areas of current prosperity. Ever tightening that nuce around CA's throat.
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John Carbone
Realtor · Gatlinburg · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 957 votes
3y
Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

@James Hamling seems like my call is coming right on que here. Seasonal adjustments claims are proving to be a myth. Short term 12-18 month 20-30 percent drops and then prices skyrocket higher like you claim, you are just a year to two too early .

Well, let's see who's forecasting better matches the reality that comes.
Remember in my forecast I have a running commentary of the Lynch-pin Theory that goes along, which none of these fancy charts and analysis you pull from take into account. These things your looking at are a very small select data segment, and then projects it forward in a kind of tunnel vision. Which is why they are so wildly inaccurate the further out they view, and have such sizable changes so consistently.
As I have said, watch for policy actions of interdiction in the next 8-12 mnths now to effect some kind of "affordability in housing". It will be coming, without doubt.
As for the "crash" you keep calling for, need I remind it only exists in your charts, still, not in reality. You've been calling for a "crash" for weeks, and it doesn't happen. It's continued to be something "just around the corner", consistently. 20-30% drop in national median home prices is just NOT a realistic thing, it's not, and there is a mountain of data to prove such. Just do some research on '08', because what your calling for is on same level if not bigger, FYI. It's easy to call it out as NOT viable.

I’ve never referred it as a “crash”, all I’m saying 20-30 percent from peak by end of 2023. I don’t like using that term because stocks dropped 20-30 percent since January but it’s not a “crash” because it’s not instantaneous. Expect similar to stock market with housing by end of 2023, I don’t care what the official definition is, “crash” “correction” “draw down” just 20-30 percent by Dec 31 2023, off the peak median home value nationwide.

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Michael Wooldridge
Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes
3y
Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:
I'm just net getting where the optimism is coming from. We're seeing pretty significant shifts in the market already, and this is only with data from Sep - which has rates that were locked quite a bit prior.

From Zillow as it's very accurate and having real-time updates.

Two aspects :
- home active inventory is almost zero growth MoM now with negative listing remaining negative MoM
- in Zillow most home sold in Sep has price in upper 5% , in July August it was noticeable -10 - 15% ranges

In the worst market (San Jose) we see stabilizing price between August-September data, for crash to happen August-Sep should reduce more than prev. mnth, it didn't happen. Crazy, the market is front-running Fed actions LOL.
Couple thoughts on this...

I know inventory had no growth, but demand has also tanked. I need to get updated stats, but even with the lack of new listings last time I checked (in DFW), the months supply of inventory increased. Therefore the low level of new listings was greater than the amount of sales, creating a net positive impact on inventory.

I don't think it's been enough time to evaluate value decrease. How could have values stabilized in Aug-Sep when a lot of home are lingering and seeing big price decreases. I'm seeing a lot of that in DFW. I don't think the data is going to reflect what's happening in the market until Dec/ Jan.

I'm of the mindset that this is going to be a slow-motion car crash. I don't think that a month or two is going to have a crazy impact, no cliff in sight. Let 5-6 months of 6+ rates sink in to see the full impact on values. I don't see them leveling out for a while. I think it's going to be a slow, steady decrease in values as long as we have rates at or above 6.

Demand falling was expected That's the belief most of us have is that most people will sit tight. If demand falls and it stagnates we are less likely to see a massive "crash" / adjustment.
I do think it's a little early but the other reason people see some positive is if inflation continues to slow and demand/rate increases slow - when the entire east coast has not had a negative impact there is reason to think it's just a small correction overall through the next 6 months.
Everything you and most here are pointing to is primarily West Coast towns impacted by rates the most. If things are starting to slow down, even if more pain is coming, there's a lot of the US that has just had slower demand but not necessarily any major change. So thats the reason to say it might not be too bad.
I've seen a lot of analysts point to hyper-regionalized, and it almost always is, but it feels like this is going to be more true to an extreme.

If the main driver of falling demand is rates and affordability, what's making you think that demand is going to increase beyond current levels? If demand stays where it is now (not based on data from Sep), which is basically floor level, how would prices stabilize? Inventory will slowly increase and the only way sellers sell is to lower prices.

Not only the west coast, look at Texas, specifically Austin and DFW.

Again, seems like our expectations are different. You seem to be seeing the only possibilities of a crash as something that happens immediately, I see it as something gradual over many months. The end result however, will be the same.

I do however, agree that this will be localized, meaning that the areas that has the most explosive price growth will be the ones that have the biggest fall. Some of the markets your referring to might not have experienced the inflationary housing bubblew to the same degree as others.

Not at all. There is no such thing as fast crash in housing - didn’t even happen that way in 08.
How do prices stabilize? look at the west coast. Look at what Carlos continued to post around inventory. They will stabilize because many many people are going to stop selling. Period. Yes you are right we absolutely expect very different things. I’ve expected all along 10% national adjustment. Considering inflation + thta adjustment housing ends up in a fine place.
Some here seem to think 20% is the floor and we could hit 30%. I’m saying that is rediculous even more so by what we are starting to see.
As to DFW and Austin, what about it? Has it shifted 10% on values? Until it does it doesn’t impact anything.
So far my predictions of east vs west coast and stagnation in Texas has been pretty spot on. Austin was the one market I had called out with some short term risk.
Nationally I’ve called for 10% changes. Time will tell who is right but my prediction is we just have MUCH less sales next year. Housing will just fall off a cliff.

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Carlos Ptriawan
Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
3y
Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

CA's placement upon that pedestal is coming to end, these are the last days of CA as the gold-star of whatever. No doubt CA was "THE" state, so much so that it's afforded decades of neglect and abuse to come to a point of being surpassed by so many others. But it's here, the day of reckoning is upon CA. The coming years will be the age of CA's accountability, and it's gonna hurt, gonna hurt so dang bad. Chickens coming home to roost.
And as TX thrives, TN thrives, FL, MN, WI, SD, and so on and so fourth, CA will be an after thought for most. The smart $ and persons will leave in ever increasing masses for the areas of current prosperity. Ever tightening that nuce around CA's throat.

Yeah, all this confusion started when a lazy reporter from a newspaper is saying nationwide real estate will experience 10% drops while in reality, MN price increased by 1-2%, TX has zero growth and CA dropped 15% (temporarily). Everyone reading the wrong statistical book.
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Clayton Silva
Lender · CA · Member since 2018 · 637 posts · 393 votes
3y
I feel like this question doesn't do itself justice. In regards to a crash, it is always possible, however defining terms is super important. Is a crash a 10% decline in seller's asking prices? Is a crash a nationwide drop by 30+% in YoY sales price? Is a crash a local drop in big cities but massive appreciation in suburban and rural areas? What do we define as a crash? Nationally, massive crashes/corrections in the housing market have only ever really occurred 3 times: Great depression, Inflationary period in late 70's early 80's (which was actually pretty minor considering rates were in the mid teens) and 2008-2010 which we all remember. This is neither a common nor normal occurrence and does not happen often throughout US history. A correction is more likely, however when home price appreciation is averaged over a 50 year period we are basically right at where they would have been had 2008 never happened (we've been playing catch up for 10 years so it feels like more rapid appreciation than normal). Basic econ has people stuck in their homes from historically low rates and not wanting to downsize their homes because they qualify for less on top of an already national shortage in housing. I'm not the smartest, but I do think it is likely that some markets will see some correction and others will continue to chug along as (maybe more slowly) as demand continues to outpace supply. Just my personal thoughts!
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John Carbone
Realtor · Gatlinburg · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 957 votes
3y
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

CA's placement upon that pedestal is coming to end, these are the last days of CA as the gold-star of whatever. No doubt CA was "THE" state, so much so that it's afforded decades of neglect and abuse to come to a point of being surpassed by so many others. But it's here, the day of reckoning is upon CA. The coming years will be the age of CA's accountability, and it's gonna hurt, gonna hurt so dang bad. Chickens coming home to roost.
And as TX thrives, TN thrives, FL, MN, WI, SD, and so on and so fourth, CA will be an after thought for most. The smart $ and persons will leave in ever increasing masses for the areas of current prosperity. Ever tightening that nuce around CA's throat.

Yeah, all this confusion started when a lazy reporter from a newspaper is saying nationwide real estate will experience 10% drops while in reality, MN price increased by 1-2%, TX has zero growth and CA dropped 15% (temporarily). Everyone reading the wrong statistical book.

These short term gyrations are expected going from august to September. The real main impact is this winter/spring. The bulls got their 1-0 lead this month, but it’s bases loaded now for the bears 0 outs with the first baseman pitching but people only looking at the Box score, this will be updated in due course.

1
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Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

As to DFW and Austin, what about it? Has it shifted 10% on values? Until it does it doesn’t impact anything.
So far my predictions of east vs west coast and stagnation in Texas has been pretty spot on. Austin was the one market I had called out with some short term risk.
Nationally I’ve called for 10% changes. Time will tell who is right but my prediction is we just have MUCH less sales next year. Housing will just fall off a cliff.

Good question... let's take a look at DFW. Peak of the bubble was May 2022, where the median sold price was $490k. Fast forward to September 2022, only 4 months later and the median sold price is $399k. That's an 18.5% drop in prices in 4 months. Almost double the number you said it would need to have an impact.

0
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John Carbone
Realtor · Gatlinburg · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 957 votes
3y
Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

As to DFW and Austin, what about it? Has it shifted 10% on values? Until it does it doesn’t impact anything.
So far my predictions of east vs west coast and stagnation in Texas has been pretty spot on. Austin was the one market I had called out with some short term risk.
Nationally I’ve called for 10% changes. Time will tell who is right but my prediction is we just have MUCH less sales next year. Housing will just fall off a cliff.

Good question... let's take a look at DFW. Peak of the bubble was May 2022, where the median sold price was $490k. Fast forward to September 2022, only 4 months later and the median sold price is $399k. That's an 18.5% drop in median sold prices in 4 months. Almost double the number you said it would need to shift to have an impact.

But it’s up 6.5 percent YOY 😂
1
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Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

As to DFW and Austin, what about it? Has it shifted 10% on values? Until it does it doesn’t impact anything.
So far my predictions of east vs west coast and stagnation in Texas has been pretty spot on. Austin was the one market I had called out with some short term risk.
Nationally I’ve called for 10% changes. Time will tell who is right but my prediction is we just have MUCH less sales next year. Housing will just fall off a cliff.

Good question... let's take a look at DFW. Peak of the bubble was May 2022, where the median sold price was $490k. Fast forward to September 2022, only 4 months later and the median sold price is $399k. That's an 18.5% drop in median sold prices in 4 months. Almost double the number you said it would need to shift to have an impact.

But it’s up 6.5 percent YOY 😂

Lmao, YOY means nothing in this context. Values aren't annual. A month by month look at the market is the most accurate way to evaluate the market. Do you think traders on wall street would look at a stock that fell almost 20% in 4 months and not consider than a crash, or at least the early stages of a crash?

If this is your stance and how you're going to try to manipulate the data to fit your narrative, your argument is quickly losing credibility.
1
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John Carbone
Realtor · Gatlinburg · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 957 votes
3y
Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

As to DFW and Austin, what about it? Has it shifted 10% on values? Until it does it doesn’t impact anything.
So far my predictions of east vs west coast and stagnation in Texas has been pretty spot on. Austin was the one market I had called out with some short term risk.
Nationally I’ve called for 10% changes. Time will tell who is right but my prediction is we just have MUCH less sales next year. Housing will just fall off a cliff.

Good question... let's take a look at DFW. Peak of the bubble was May 2022, where the median sold price was $490k. Fast forward to September 2022, only 4 months later and the median sold price is $399k. That's an 18.5% drop in median sold prices in 4 months. Almost double the number you said it would need to shift to have an impact.

But it’s up 6.5 percent YOY 😂

$449,000 national median peak down to $427,000….we will be under 400k shortly

@greg it was a joke on the YOY, that’s what James always says though
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Michael Wooldridge
Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes
3y
Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

As to DFW and Austin, what about it? Has it shifted 10% on values? Until it does it doesn’t impact anything.
So far my predictions of east vs west coast and stagnation in Texas has been pretty spot on. Austin was the one market I had called out with some short term risk.
Nationally I’ve called for 10% changes. Time will tell who is right but my prediction is we just have MUCH less sales next year. Housing will just fall off a cliff.

Good question... let's take a look at DFW. Peak of the bubble was May 2022, where the median sold price was $490k. Fast forward to September 2022, only 4 months later and the median sold price is $399k. That's an 18.5% drop in median sold prices in 4 months. Almost double the number you said it would need to shift to have an impact.

That jump in May is weird, so large even from the trend up historically. Such a big spike from March and then back down. It’s interesting to say the say least.

Austin meanwhile is much more consistent in the trend up and down:

https://www.redfin.com/city/30...

And I think we all honestly thought Austin would be worse than DFW in the shift given prices, tech buble and a few other things.

on the other hand June to June in DFW was a 30% growth year over year. That’s an insane jump so maybe that was it more than anything.

I will say I’m shocked DF had more shift then Austin but if not for that odd May jump that was no in trend with tthe previous shift.

Either way not seeing the 20-30% jump nationally.

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Michael Wooldridge
Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes
3y

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Carlos Ptriawan
Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

As to DFW and Austin, what about it? Has it shifted 10% on values? Until it does it doesn’t impact anything.
So far my predictions of east vs west coast and stagnation in Texas has been pretty spot on. Austin was the one market I had called out with some short term risk.
Nationally I’ve called for 10% changes. Time will tell who is right but my prediction is we just have MUCH less sales next year. Housing will just fall off a cliff.

Good question... let's take a look at DFW. Peak of the bubble was May 2022, where the median sold price was $490k. Fast forward to September 2022, only 4 months later and the median sold price is $399k. That's an 18.5% drop in prices in 4 months. Almost double the number you said it would need to have an impact.

DFW market has 3 sigma deviation melting up from 2020 and mild price reduction from August.
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Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

As to DFW and Austin, what about it? Has it shifted 10% on values? Until it does it doesn’t impact anything.
So far my predictions of east vs west coast and stagnation in Texas has been pretty spot on. Austin was the one market I had called out with some short term risk.
Nationally I’ve called for 10% changes. Time will tell who is right but my prediction is we just have MUCH less sales next year. Housing will just fall off a cliff.

Good question... let's take a look at DFW. Peak of the bubble was May 2022, where the median sold price was $490k. Fast forward to September 2022, only 4 months later and the median sold price is $399k. That's an 18.5% drop in median sold prices in 4 months. Almost double the number you said it would need to shift to have an impact.

That jump in May is weird = so large even from the trend up historically. Such a big spike from March and then back down. It’s interesting to say the say least.
Austin meanwhile is much more flatline:
https://www.redfin.com/city/30...
And I think we all honestly thought Austin would be worse than DFW in the shift given prices, tech buble and a few other things.
on the other hand June to June in DFW was a 30% growth year over year. That’s an insane jump so maybe that was it more than anything.

I will say I’m shocked DF had more shift then Austin but if not for that odd May jump that was no in trend with tthe previous shift.
Either way not seeing the 20-30% jump nationally.

I wouldn't call it any weirder than the bubble that we've seen forming over the last couple years. Dallas is more dramatic than some other places... as I've said this is going to be more local than national. But's it's definitely not "just a west coast thing."
Even nationally, the peak was in May 2022. National median sold price in May was 430k, now it's down to 403k dropping every month since the peak. So there's no doubt that from the peak of the bubble we're seeing declines across the board. Some are more dramatic than others.
I won't be surprised if the national number gets down to the mid-300's in the next year.
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Carlos Ptriawan
Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
3y

That jump in May is weird, so large even from the trend up historically. Such a big spike from March and then back down. It’s interesting to say the say least.
I guess California folks moved to this market and destroy the market in May :)
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Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

That jump in May is weird, so large even from the trend up historically. Such a big spike from March and then back down. It’s interesting to say the say least.
I guess California folks moved to this market and destroy the market in May :)
Lol, they were moving everywhere. TX, AZ, FL, TN, SC, etc. Dallas was a perfect s*it storm to create a hyper bloated/ inflated housing market. However, I'm very confident that it's going to come crashing back down to reality. We're witnessing the early stages currently. Let's see how the median sold prices look in Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb.
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Carlos Ptriawan
Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
3y
one thing that is correct is we could say CA is temporarily stabilizing while TX is experiencing a downhill slope from two-three months ago.
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Michael Wooldridge
Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes
3y
@Greg R. sorry but any way you slice it it's weird. Month over month it's unusually large and if you specifically look at it from March to May it's a massive jump, even in this environment. Candidly it wouldn't be surprising to find you had a very large influx of population specifically in May (with some houses closing in April) and then immediately trailing back down. Those jumps are massive any way you slice it and unusually from the entire previous trend. In fact. It's pretty much flat lined from where it was in Mach/April range. Which even on it's own suggests a bit of an isolated incident there.

@Carlos Ptriawan I'd love to know if there was a big company move about that time to DFW. Because even from the historical numbers those are big jumps and yes looks like a large influx from Cali tied to a large business move.
Either way it doesn't match the Austin trend. And its also flatlined....
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Greg R.
OP
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Austin meanwhile is much more consistent in the trend up and down:

https://www.redfin.com/city/30...

And I think we all honestly thought Austin would be worse than DFW in the shift given prices, tech buble and a few other things.

on the other hand June to June in DFW was a 30% growth year over year. That’s an insane jump so maybe that was it more than anything.

I will say I’m shocked DF had more shift then Austin but if not for that odd May jump that was no in trend with tthe previous shift.

Either way not seeing the 20-30% jump nationally.

Austin is not far behind... Peak of the bubble median sold house was 670k (May), in September it was 563k, over 100k. That's a lot more than a minor correction. That's a major shift in values. If this rate of value decreases continues for a few more months, you are going to see your 20-30%.

And again, you seem to be hung up on the idea that in order for prices to crash, it will be immediate. We're a little more than one quarter past the peak of the bubble, we're seeing exactly what I am predicting. Slow and steady declines.
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Billy Smith
Shawnee Mission, KS · Member since 2016 · 716 posts · 313 votes
3y
This thread just keeps on giving, the current situation nationwide is about who city boomed the most we know the answer to that those cities will fall the most.

I put a house up for rent last week took 24 hours with 2 callers I raised the rent it’s still under what it is worth.

Last time it was rented in 5 hours and dozens of callers, so it has slowed down some.

Here in the Midwest, it’s a supply issue plus it did not go way up so the price now is still reasonable compared to the rest of the nation.

The locale economy has to be diversified or it can and will bust.
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