Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions.
However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.
Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct.
The market may correct, but I firmly believe there won't be a crash. The reason is simple, equity.
Before 2008 people with no income could get liars loans and buy much more real estate than they could afford. We heard stories of cleaning ladies buying multiple million dollar homes. When home prices starting falling, the whole thing collapses like a house of cards because nobody had any equity. They couldn't sell and get out. We had cascading foreclosures creating a downward spiral.
Recently, prices have been surging. Given the laws passed after the Great Recession, appraisals and lending is highly restricted. Appraisals have not been keeping up with prices and lenders won't lend above appraised value. We sold a house in 2021 and in one day had 20 offers. Several of them had acceleration clauses stating they would pay more than anyone else up to $X. Both of them waived any financing contingency because they KNEW the house wouldn't appraise for what they were offering. They had to make up the difference with cash. Those people have a ton of equity in their homes. If they had to sell, they might take a haircut, but they aren't going to get foreclosed.
There is no house of cards here to come tumbling down.
Some other interesting news... A Federal Judge in Texas blocked Biden's loan forgiveness program. If this sticks and can only be possible through a bill passed by congress, it'll be dead in the water if the R's take the house.
I knew a couple people who were banking on this, so this would be a big blow to those who were expecting relief from their high intertest loans.
I think the biggest impact this year in the mega crash level would be the crypto wipeout. The impact in term of dollar is huge, maybe most Silicon VC now are 25% poorer after their stupidity :-) Their level of corruption inside the crypto business is amazing. Such in a way that the money coming from FTX is being re-invested to Sequoia (its own funder), that's Ponzi scheme.
But wait, there're a lot of folks here even in BP that restart to buy crypto LOL
Greg as long as there're crazy people there we don't know what would happen. Few years ago I thought NFT and Metaverse is joke.
Carlos, looks like even Mickey is freezing and/or laying people off now:
Disney planning 'targeted' hiring freeze, some cuts - CNBC (NYSE:DIS) | Seeking Alpha
So the problem with Disney is their margin is extremely small, only 2% (0.4B); their main source of income is largely from TV and park. Strangely, the income coming from the TV channels is much more than the park business while it's having higher operating costs.
It seems layoff in Disney Park is a great choice by the CEO. Stock should be up LOL
Like I mentioned many times ….tech company will use this bear market time to cut cost by eliminating group that’s not profitable , in Amazon it happened to be robotic and Alexa team. Don’t worry those guys that got laid off with 250k salary and still have thousands RSu will find new job soon.
guys if we care we should care more if steel worker get laid off because they will have difficult time find replacement job and industry
I personally don’t care if the layoff is guy that’s having tesla, they will survive and have little impact to the housing.
tech in long term would be okay becoz dolar started to go lower and inflation seems going down pretty big next year.
the key is the dollar , if dollar keeps rising more layoffs is expected
Some other interesting news... A Federal Judge in Texas blocked Biden's loan forgiveness program. If this sticks and can only be possible through a bill passed by congress, it'll be dead in the water if the R's take the house.
I knew a couple people who were banking on this, so this would be a big blow to those who were expecting relief from their high intertest loans.
I think the biggest impact this year in the mega crash level would be the crypto wipeout. The impact in term of dollar is huge, maybe most Silicon VC now are 25% poorer after their stupidity :-) Their level of corruption inside the crypto business is amazing. Such in a way that the money coming from FTX is being re-invested to Sequoia (its own funder), that's Ponzi scheme.
But wait, there're a lot of folks here even in BP that restart to buy crypto LOL
Greg as long as there're crazy people there we don't know what would happen. Few years ago I thought NFT and Metaverse is joke.
Carlos, looks like even Mickey is freezing and/or laying people off now:
Disney planning 'targeted' hiring freeze, some cuts - CNBC (NYSE:DIS) | Seeking Alpha
So the problem with Disney is their margin is extremely small, only 2% (0.4B); their main source of income is largely from TV and park. Strangely, the income coming from the TV channels is much more than the park business while it's having higher operating costs.
It seems layoff in Disney Park is a great choice by the CEO. Stock should be up LOL
Like I mentioned many times ….tech company will use this bear market time to cut cost by eliminating group that’s not profitable , in Amazon it happened to be robotic and Alexa team. Don’t worry those guys that got laid off with 250k salary and still have thousands RSu will find new job soon.
guys if we care we should care more if steel worker get laid off because they will have difficult time find replacement job and industry
I personally don’t care if the layoff is guy that’s having tesla, they will survive and have little impact to the housing.
tech in long term would be okay becoz dolar started to go lower and inflation seems going down pretty big next year.
the key is the dollar , if dollar keeps rising more layoffs is expected
It's going to happen in the next 6-12-24 months
Some other interesting news... A Federal Judge in Texas blocked Biden's loan forgiveness program. If this sticks and can only be possible through a bill passed by congress, it'll be dead in the water if the R's take the house.
I knew a couple people who were banking on this, so this would be a big blow to those who were expecting relief from their high intertest loans.
I think the biggest impact this year in the mega crash level would be the crypto wipeout. The impact in term of dollar is huge, maybe most Silicon VC now are 25% poorer after their stupidity :-) Their level of corruption inside the crypto business is amazing. Such in a way that the money coming from FTX is being re-invested to Sequoia (its own funder), that's Ponzi scheme.
But wait, there're a lot of folks here even in BP that restart to buy crypto LOL
Greg as long as there're crazy people there we don't know what would happen. Few years ago I thought NFT and Metaverse is joke.
Carlos, looks like even Mickey is freezing and/or laying people off now:
Disney planning 'targeted' hiring freeze, some cuts - CNBC (NYSE:DIS) | Seeking Alpha
So the problem with Disney is their margin is extremely small, only 2% (0.4B); their main source of income is largely from TV and park. Strangely, the income coming from the TV channels is much more than the park business while it's having higher operating costs.
It seems layoff in Disney Park is a great choice by the CEO. Stock should be up LOL
Like I mentioned many times ….tech company will use this bear market time to cut cost by eliminating group that’s not profitable , in Amazon it happened to be robotic and Alexa team. Don’t worry those guys that got laid off with 250k salary and still have thousands RSu will find new job soon.
guys if we care we should care more if steel worker get laid off because they will have difficult time find replacement job and industry
I personally don’t care if the layoff is guy that’s having tesla, they will survive and have little impact to the housing.
tech in long term would be okay becoz dolar started to go lower and inflation seems going down pretty big next year.
the key is the dollar , if dollar keeps rising more layoffs is expected
btw i'm currently in naalehu , there're only 800 people and the civilization and its beauty are perhaps similar to 1786 still,
so peaceful down here and it seems Fed doesn't even exist ....
Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions.
However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.
Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct.
How do you think the lower mortgage rates will effect house prices?
Some other interesting news... A Federal Judge in Texas blocked Biden's loan forgiveness program. If this sticks and can only be possible through a bill passed by congress, it'll be dead in the water if the R's take the house.
I knew a couple people who were banking on this, so this would be a big blow to those who were expecting relief from their high intertest loans.
I think the biggest impact this year in the mega crash level would be the crypto wipeout. The impact in term of dollar is huge, maybe most Silicon VC now are 25% poorer after their stupidity :-) Their level of corruption inside the crypto business is amazing. Such in a way that the money coming from FTX is being re-invested to Sequoia (its own funder), that's Ponzi scheme.
But wait, there're a lot of folks here even in BP that restart to buy crypto LOL
Greg as long as there're crazy people there we don't know what would happen. Few years ago I thought NFT and Metaverse is joke.
Carlos, looks like even Mickey is freezing and/or laying people off now:
Disney planning 'targeted' hiring freeze, some cuts - CNBC (NYSE:DIS) | Seeking Alpha
So the problem with Disney is their margin is extremely small, only 2% (0.4B); their main source of income is largely from TV and park. Strangely, the income coming from the TV channels is much more than the park business while it's having higher operating costs.
It seems layoff in Disney Park is a great choice by the CEO. Stock should be up LOL
Like I mentioned many times ….tech company will use this bear market time to cut cost by eliminating group that’s not profitable , in Amazon it happened to be robotic and Alexa team. Don’t worry those guys that got laid off with 250k salary and still have thousands RSu will find new job soon.
guys if we care we should care more if steel worker get laid off because they will have difficult time find replacement job and industry
I personally don’t care if the layoff is guy that’s having tesla, they will survive and have little impact to the housing.
tech in long term would be okay becoz dolar started to go lower and inflation seems going down pretty big next year.
the key is the dollar , if dollar keeps rising more layoffs is expected
Lots of people. Those roles require software dev, cloud, data and AI/ML skills. Incredibly in demand and plenty of open spots.
BTW fed signaling pivots already: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/1...
Doubt it comes this soon but it is coming soon enough.
Some other interesting news... A Federal Judge in Texas blocked Biden's loan forgiveness program. If this sticks and can only be possible through a bill passed by congress, it'll be dead in the water if the R's take the house.
I knew a couple people who were banking on this, so this would be a big blow to those who were expecting relief from their high intertest loans.
I think the biggest impact this year in the mega crash level would be the crypto wipeout. The impact in term of dollar is huge, maybe most Silicon VC now are 25% poorer after their stupidity :-) Their level of corruption inside the crypto business is amazing. Such in a way that the money coming from FTX is being re-invested to Sequoia (its own funder), that's Ponzi scheme.
But wait, there're a lot of folks here even in BP that restart to buy crypto LOL
Greg as long as there're crazy people there we don't know what would happen. Few years ago I thought NFT and Metaverse is joke.
Carlos, looks like even Mickey is freezing and/or laying people off now:
Disney planning 'targeted' hiring freeze, some cuts - CNBC (NYSE:DIS) | Seeking Alpha
So the problem with Disney is their margin is extremely small, only 2% (0.4B); their main source of income is largely from TV and park. Strangely, the income coming from the TV channels is much more than the park business while it's having higher operating costs.
It seems layoff in Disney Park is a great choice by the CEO. Stock should be up LOL
Like I mentioned many times ….tech company will use this bear market time to cut cost by eliminating group that’s not profitable , in Amazon it happened to be robotic and Alexa team. Don’t worry those guys that got laid off with 250k salary and still have thousands RSu will find new job soon.
guys if we care we should care more if steel worker get laid off because they will have difficult time find replacement job and industry
I personally don’t care if the layoff is guy that’s having tesla, they will survive and have little impact to the housing.
tech in long term would be okay becoz dolar started to go lower and inflation seems going down pretty big next year.
the key is the dollar , if dollar keeps rising more layoffs is expected
i'm telling you, i really need some of that puff-puff you got there, buddy.
i'm telling you, i really need some of that puff-puff you got there, buddy.
Been telling the layoff is expected and not broad based--for now.
I know people have so much concern about tech folks but I don't have much concern , if dollar keeps going higher all tech company going to close door. Simple and easy.
Why do people outside CA care so much care about rich people in silicon valley I don't understand.
All these Fed policy is making people poorer in Europe and Asia if you really care. LOL
Like I said many times, home price over here already rebound.
Some other interesting news... A Federal Judge in Texas blocked Biden's loan forgiveness program. If this sticks and can only be possible through a bill passed by congress, it'll be dead in the water if the R's take the house.
I knew a couple people who were banking on this, so this would be a big blow to those who were expecting relief from their high intertest loans.
I think the biggest impact this year in the mega crash level would be the crypto wipeout. The impact in term of dollar is huge, maybe most Silicon VC now are 25% poorer after their stupidity :-) Their level of corruption inside the crypto business is amazing. Such in a way that the money coming from FTX is being re-invested to Sequoia (its own funder), that's Ponzi scheme.
But wait, there're a lot of folks here even in BP that restart to buy crypto LOL
Greg as long as there're crazy people there we don't know what would happen. Few years ago I thought NFT and Metaverse is joke.
Carlos, looks like even Mickey is freezing and/or laying people off now:
Disney planning 'targeted' hiring freeze, some cuts - CNBC (NYSE:DIS) | Seeking Alpha
So the problem with Disney is their margin is extremely small, only 2% (0.4B); their main source of income is largely from TV and park. Strangely, the income coming from the TV channels is much more than the park business while it's having higher operating costs.
It seems layoff in Disney Park is a great choice by the CEO. Stock should be up LOL
Like I mentioned many times ….tech company will use this bear market time to cut cost by eliminating group that’s not profitable , in Amazon it happened to be robotic and Alexa team. Don’t worry those guys that got laid off with 250k salary and still have thousands RSu will find new job soon.
guys if we care we should care more if steel worker get laid off because they will have difficult time find replacement job and industry
I personally don’t care if the layoff is guy that’s having tesla, they will survive and have little impact to the housing.
tech in long term would be okay becoz dolar started to go lower and inflation seems going down pretty big next year.
the key is the dollar , if dollar keeps rising more layoffs is expected
i'm telling you, i really need some of that puff-puff you got there, buddy.
Got to get out to the coasts again. People with these skill sets are easily hirable even now. Even our company that has some freezes in some roles is hiring for these roles. As Carlos said so is his.
Just about the number one risk CIOs are stating and have been for years is skills shortage, talent gaps.
Many companies are still running about 30-50% of contract staff (you saw that with the twitter announcement over the weekend). What do you think is cheaper contract staff or employed?
Some other interesting news... A Federal Judge in Texas blocked Biden's loan forgiveness program. If this sticks and can only be possible through a bill passed by congress, it'll be dead in the water if the R's take the house.
I knew a couple people who were banking on this, so this would be a big blow to those who were expecting relief from their high intertest loans.
I think the biggest impact this year in the mega crash level would be the crypto wipeout. The impact in term of dollar is huge, maybe most Silicon VC now are 25% poorer after their stupidity :-) Their level of corruption inside the crypto business is amazing. Such in a way that the money coming from FTX is being re-invested to Sequoia (its own funder), that's Ponzi scheme.
But wait, there're a lot of folks here even in BP that restart to buy crypto LOL
Greg as long as there're crazy people there we don't know what would happen. Few years ago I thought NFT and Metaverse is joke.
Carlos, looks like even Mickey is freezing and/or laying people off now:
Disney planning 'targeted' hiring freeze, some cuts - CNBC (NYSE:DIS) | Seeking Alpha
So the problem with Disney is their margin is extremely small, only 2% (0.4B); their main source of income is largely from TV and park. Strangely, the income coming from the TV channels is much more than the park business while it's having higher operating costs.
It seems layoff in Disney Park is a great choice by the CEO. Stock should be up LOL
Like I mentioned many times ….tech company will use this bear market time to cut cost by eliminating group that’s not profitable , in Amazon it happened to be robotic and Alexa team. Don’t worry those guys that got laid off with 250k salary and still have thousands RSu will find new job soon.
guys if we care we should care more if steel worker get laid off because they will have difficult time find replacement job and industry
I personally don’t care if the layoff is guy that’s having tesla, they will survive and have little impact to the housing.
tech in long term would be okay becoz dolar started to go lower and inflation seems going down pretty big next year.
the key is the dollar , if dollar keeps rising more layoffs is expected
i'm telling you, i really need some of that puff-puff you got there, buddy.
Got to get out to the coasts again. People with these skill sets are easily hirable even now. Even our company that has some freezes in some roles is hiring for these roles. As Carlos said so is his.
Just about the number one risk CIOs are stating and have been for years is skills shortage, talent gaps.
Many companies are still running about 30-50% of contract staff (you saw that with the twitter announcement over the weekend). What do you think is cheaper contract staff or employed?
Instead, we have to CELEBRATE.
Dollar is reaching a new 3 Months LOW, this is the most important factor for the tech economy.
10-year yield at 3.87%, going lower and lower
The 30YR mortgage is reaching 6.6%
Be happy when there's good news folks, the worst is behind us, no need for obsession with crash/layoffs/etc. That's temporary.
You assume too much....It could also be things are so bad that homeowners are doing all the work themselves...
You assume too much....It could also be things are so bad that homeowners are doing all the work themselves...
Unlikely. 1) that knowledge doesn’t rapidly expand to the level of renno that Home Depot regularly does. AND there are articles and other sources out there about renno going strong… for now anyway.
Some of it? Sure enough to beat the way they did? Highly unlikely given the forecasts the business had to issue.
Again I’m sure it’s slowing down this qtr. It’s not unusual to see a last burst of people “getting it done” in many businesses before it drys up. I suspect there is an element of that here. But given the inflation/adjustments we will see into next year the timing is rather nice overall. Q4 earnings next year will be fun but by that point we should have different directional information from the fed.
I still see pain ahead, especially on the markets given the rally that happened. But the elements of a soft landing are there if inflation continues on the trajectory.
Since the FED uses BLS I also expect inflation numbers are higher than actual since housing accounts for a huge portion of inflation. So by January/Feb I expect that to look much prettier.
Time will tell.
Or as an example:
Investors have kept an eye on Home Depot’s performance and whether shoppers are still spending on renovations and do-it-yourself home improvements as they face persistent inflation.
“We’re navigating a unique environment,” Home Depot CEO Ted Decker said on Tuesday’s call with investors. “We can’t predict how the macroeconomic backdrop will affect customers going forward.”
Despite this, he added the company believes demand will remain strong, especially as consumers continue to stay home more than usual. The typical Home Depot customer is still able to afford home improvement projects, he said.
Home Depot said Tuesday that while its customer transactions were down slightly more than 4%, its average ticket prices rose about 9% to $89.67. The company also said its sales per retail square foot rose 5%.
It’s really not too surprising in many respects. Job market is still strong, still below the historic lows. Some people are hurting but many are not. Age old tale always people with cash and right now the market hasn’t hurt enough job wise to break the trend.
Despite this, he added the company believes demand will remain strong, especially as consumers continue to stay home more than usual. The typical Home Depot customer is still able to afford home improvement projects, he said.
Yep, folks are stayin' home and workin' on their homes....
Despite this, he added the company believes demand will remain strong, especially as consumers continue to stay home more than usual. The typical Home Depot customer is still able to afford home improvement projects, he said.
Yep, folks are stayin' home and workin' on their homes....
Some are but they were pre-recession too. I’ve had handymen hired recently in 2 states. They are slower but still busy.
Roofers especially.
Spending is spending, and if people are rennovating still, money is still good.
Despite this, he added the company believes demand will remain strong, especially as consumers continue to stay home more than usual. The typical Home Depot customer is still able to afford home improvement projects, he said.
Yep, folks are stayin' home and workin' on their homes....
Some are but they were pre-recession too. I’ve had handymen hired recently in 2 states. They are slower but still busy.
Roofers especially.
Spending is spending, and if people are rennovating still, money is still good.
We are in a deep long recession if you are a mortgage broker/realtor in CA, save your commission to buy crypto using FTX or BlockFi and have British Car while having 100k student loan debts.
But if you work for an LNG supplier, put your saving in the traditional bank only, and have a few cash-flows decent rental while driving an electric Japanese car without having any student loan debt -- you should be just fine LOL.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/f...
My 20 percent prediction is now on the fed radar.
@John Carbone I certainly agree that that type of drop is within the realm of possibility in certain markets.
It's still a "could" though. Wouldn't want to be on record as saying they "will" drop - that would be making a prediction!
You assume too much....It could also be things are so bad that homeowners are doing all the work themselves...
Unlikely. 1) that knowledge doesn’t rapidly expand to the level of renno that Home Depot regularly does. AND there are articles and other sources out there about renno going strong… for now anyway.
Some of it? Sure enough to beat the way they did? Highly unlikely given the forecasts the business had to issue.
Again I’m sure it’s slowing down this qtr. It’s not unusual to see a last burst of people “getting it done” in many businesses before it drys up. I suspect there is an element of that here. But given the inflation/adjustments we will see into next year the timing is rather nice overall. Q4 earnings next year will be fun but by that point we should have different directional information from the fed.
I still see pain ahead, especially on the markets given the rally that happened. But the elements of a soft landing are there if inflation continues on the trajectory.
Since the FED uses BLS I also expect inflation numbers are higher than actual since housing accounts for a huge portion of inflation. So by January/Feb I expect that to look much prettier.
Time will tell.
@John Carbone I certainly agree that that type of drop is within the realm of possibility in certain markets.
It's still a "could" though. Wouldn't want to be on record as saying they "will" drop - that would be making a prediction!
My question is why the Fed is saying so obvious after the fact.
How long they will maintain 5% FFR is the key I guess.
Time will tell.
The better metric for retailers is to check the status of retailer inventory, are they increasing or decreasing/flat?
Time will tell.
The better metric for retailers is to check the status of retailer inventory, are they increasing or decreasing/flat?
BP sucks at copy/paste, but see below:
"Third quarter operating income margin rate was 3.9 percent in 2022,Consolidated Statements of Financial Position | ||||||
(millions, except footnotes) (unaudited) | October 29, 2022 | January 29, 2022 | October 30, 2021 | |||
Assets | ||||||
Cash and cash equivalents | $ 954 | $ 5,911 | $ 5,753 | |||
Inventory | 17,117 | 13,902 | 14,958 |