The FED Paused and Investors should UnPause

The FED Paused and Investors should UnPause

AJ WongBusiness Member
Real Estate Broker · Oregon & California Coast · Member since 2022 · 822 posts · 696 votes

This past week the FED indicated a pause in their historically paced rate tightening cycle. 

The pause in rate increases should have the effect of eventually lowering mortgage rates. 

I have written extensively about the recent spike in mortgage rates paradoxically created buyer opportunities as increased borrowing costs forced many potential buyer's and investors to the sidelines. 

On the Oregon Coast the mild softening in activity provided clients greater likelihood of transactional success or at least the chance to present an offer.

I've had 3-4 recent transactions either close or under contract that might not have otherwise got done if market conditions and buyer demand were that of 8-12 months ago. Examples include, one coastal cash transaction at near 50% of the original listing price, $20k less than asking on a turn-key home and a duplex on a well below asking offer with a full 3% seller concession. 

Certainly my clients paid a higher interest rate, but they got a better deal, and what is the cost of not owning that particular property or investment over the next decade or two or three?

I can tell you that casually shopping for a property to purchase or rent in Southern California has provided new perspective for the opportunities and value of the Oregon Coast. The investors that purchased those properties when rates were 'too high' in the 80's have certainly got their money worth..

With the height of the summer buying season approaching and the news of reduced rates likely to reach home buyers and real estate investors that have been on the sidelines, expect greater competition for the already limited inventory. 

If mortgage rates drop by even 1% there will be considerably more demand and less leverage with sellers for incentives such as seller concessions, interest rate buy downs or repairs.

Additionally (although I'm personally skeptical) if the inflation numbers are accurate and the general costs of living have also peaked, the associated costs of ownership are also likely to have peaked, allowing for buyer's to budget more reliably for insurance, power, water, internet and upgrades. 

The FED is presenting this most recent move as a pause but I think it's more of a pivot. Powell blinked. He knows they can't raise rates further without destabilizing the financial sector. They'll likely hold rates steady through the end of the year, but cuts are coming. The real question is what happens to the value of the USD and how does this effect housing? My money is on dollar decline and property valuation incline. 

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Rental Property Investor · East Wenatchee, WA · Member since 2014 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes
3y

@AJ Wong  Agree equity capture at the buy is the way to go.  Rates and their trajectory will be uncertain,  but a good deal is a good deal, even if values stay flat or even reduce a little in the short run.  

As you stated, these are long-term assets that should perform well over time!   

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  • Contractor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2010 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    3y

    I thought he said that although this week was a pause, there would be 2 more hikes between now and the end of the year.

    I also thought that the fed funds rate is not directly correlated to the mortgage rates.

    Please clarify. (I'm not trying to be a smart a$$. I just would like to have a better understanding of all of this as I plan out my next 6-12 months)

  • Lender · Washington DC · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    3y

    I do not believe rates decline in the next five months. Credit card defaults up, student loan repayment back (43 million people have student loans with average payment of $320.) While the cost of eggs and toilet paper settled down average Americans will struggle to make mortgage payment. Perhaps after Halloween things may get better. 

    I'm happy your market has improved. This is not true in CA, ID, PA, AZ, FL, NY, NJ, TX yet. Some luxury pockets held on because they are all cash. The South and Midwest values have slipped a tiny 2%.

  • Rental Property Investor · East Wenatchee, WA · Member since 2014 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes
    3y

    @AJ Wong  Agree equity capture at the buy is the way to go.  Rates and their trajectory will be uncertain,  but a good deal is a good deal, even if values stay flat or even reduce a little in the short run.  

    As you stated, these are long-term assets that should perform well over time!   

  • AJ WongBusiness Member
    OP
    Real Estate Broker · Oregon & California Coast · Member since 2022 · 822 posts · 696 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Scott E.:

    I thought he said that although this week was a pause, there would be 2 more hikes between now and the end of the year.

    I also thought that the fed funds rate is not directly correlated to the mortgage rates.

    Please clarify. (I'm not trying to be a smart a$$. I just would like to have a better understanding of all of this as I plan out my next 6-12 months)


     Very possible they hike rates as implied but I think it's a 180. Potentially another .25% once or twice, but if not consecutively or over the next six months that's essentially a pivot until cuts. I'm not a finance major but I've been a mortgage broker or intimately involved since 2004. Banks are already insolvent. They cannot take higher rates. 

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  • Investor · NH · Member since 2023 · 54 posts · 25 votes
    3y

    There has been indications that the Fed will continue to raise rates again by the end of the year. 

    Government spending is causing inflation that is very high when you look at it from the point it started rapidly increasing, not just year over year. 

    Rates will tick up higher, and they need to keep rates high for a few years. Inflation is a much bigger threat to the economy than interest rates at 6 or 7%.

    Higher rates are actually keeping the supply of homes for sale low in my market so prices are still going up (unreal). Who wants to sell a 3% loan to take a 6.5% loan?

    There is a cycle of run away spending that props up the markets, they throw money at bad news. SVB is the best recent example. -32T will be -50T in no time! Eventually the market will correct or inflation will go up too high.

  • Investor · NH · Member since 2023 · 54 posts · 25 votes
    3y
  • Chris SeveneyBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    3y

    The fed publishes the projected targets and raised the end of year projection from 5.1% to 5.6% and upped next year from 4.3 to 4.6%

    Rates may go down because of historical delta between 10 year treasury is off but if people think rates will go down to 3% again on mortgages they most likely will be waiting a long time

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  • Member since 2018 · 81 posts · 26 votes
    3y

    @AJ Wong

    I feel what your discounting though is the downturn that will insue after the pausing of rates and before lowering them. They will have to lower them at some point but they will do so because the economy tanks and they’re are serious problems. Unemployment will be higher and that’ll be a better general time to buy in my opinion. Of course if a deal makes sense now then great.

  • AJ WongBusiness Member
    OP
    Real Estate Broker · Oregon & California Coast · Member since 2022 · 822 posts · 696 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Account Closed:

    There has been indications that the Fed will continue to raise rates again by the end of the year. 

    Government spending is causing inflation that is very high when you look at it from the point it started rapidly increasing, not just year over year. 

    Rates will tick up higher, and they need to keep rates high for a few years. Inflation is a much bigger threat to the economy than interest rates at 6 or 7%.

    Higher rates are actually keeping the supply of homes for sale low in my market so prices are still going up (unreal). Who wants to sell a 3% loan to take a 6.5% loan?

    There is a cycle of run away spending that props up the markets, they throw money at bad news. SVB is the best recent example. -32T will be -50T in no time! Eventually the market will correct or inflation will go up too high.


     I very much agree with this. I think inflation is underreported, the metrics for the official numbers are biased or completely inaccurate and we are in a trough, and due to the suspension of US fiscal responsibility, are likely to see inflation accelerate in the next few years. However Powell is not Volcker and they cannot use the same playbook. 10% interest rates are not feasible due to the extraordinary leverage in the financial system. The goal should not be to return to 2%. An acceptable rate of inflation is 0% Anything greater further justifies investment into hard assets. 

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  • AJ WongBusiness Member
    OP
    Real Estate Broker · Oregon & California Coast · Member since 2022 · 822 posts · 696 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Chris Miller:

    @AJ Wong

    I feel what your discounting though is the downturn that will insue after the pausing of rates and before lowering them. They will have to lower them at some point but they will do so because the economy tanks and they’re are serious problems. Unemployment will be higher and that’ll be a better general time to buy in my opinion. Of course if a deal makes sense now then great.


     Argument could be made that we are already in a recession. The implosion of San Francisco's economy alone should be enough to make a major dent in GDP. I read today that two 1000+ room hotels with $500M in debt just announced they are closing and turning the properties over to the lender. On the other hand I have dozens of very well pre qualified clients looking to invest. Perhaps weaker economic conditions force some of those with 3-4% mortgages to sell, but if the price is lower and rates are cheaper, my assumption is that there will be buyers. Lots of them. 

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  • AJ WongBusiness Member
    OP
    Real Estate Broker · Oregon & California Coast · Member since 2022 · 822 posts · 696 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Account Closed:

    There has been indications that the Fed will continue to raise rates again by the end of the year. 

    Government spending is causing inflation that is very high when you look at it from the point it started rapidly increasing, not just year over year. 

    Rates will tick up higher, and they need to keep rates high for a few years. Inflation is a much bigger threat to the economy than interest rates at 6 or 7%.

    Higher rates are actually keeping the supply of homes for sale low in my market so prices are still going up (unreal). Who wants to sell a 3% loan to take a 6.5% loan?

    There is a cycle of run away spending that props up the markets, they throw money at bad news. SVB is the best recent example. -32T will be -50T in no time! Eventually the market will correct or inflation will go up too high.


     Couldn't agree more. The government created inflation through excessive, wasteful spending. The solution would've been monetary tightening and fiscal responsibility. The proverbial inflation genie is out of the bottle. If we used the same formula as we did in the 1970-1980's I believe it would be nearer twice the officially reported number. Great point about higher rates keeping supply low. Sadly, perhaps some of the owners will be forced to sell if economic conditions get weak enough?

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  • AJ WongBusiness Member
    OP
    Real Estate Broker · Oregon & California Coast · Member since 2022 · 822 posts · 696 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Chris Seveney:

    The fed publishes the projected targets and raised the end of year projection from 5.1% to 5.6% and upped next year from 4.3 to 4.6%

    Rates may go down because of historical delta between 10 year treasury is off but if people think rates will go down to 3% again on mortgages they most likely will be waiting a long time


     In 2004 rates were 6-7% albeit on some creative terms. I don't think rates are 'bad' I certainly wouldn't lend anyone money for less than 10% interest...Comparatively to many countries, the terms available for US properties are quite affordable and favorable. 3% mortgage rates are what got these banks and the FED into the mess they are in. Low yielding, long term 'assets.' The reduction in borrowers obligations also artificially increased economic productivity. Where did all those mortgage and housing savings go? Consumption. To cover the increased costs of everything else. If we see 4-5% mortgage rates in the next year, we will see a historical housing market to match. 

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  • Peter MckernanBusiness Member
    Residential Real Estate Agent · Irvine, CA · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Caroline Gerardo:

    I do not believe rates decline in the next five months. Credit card defaults up, student loan repayment back (43 million people have student loans with average payment of $320.) While the cost of eggs and toilet paper settled down average Americans will struggle to make mortgage payment. Perhaps after Halloween things may get better. 

    I'm happy your market has improved. This is not true in CA, ID, PA, AZ, FL, NY, NJ, TX yet. Some luxury pockets held on because they are all cash. The South and Midwest values have slipped a tiny 2%.


     We did have a low, but with tight inventory historically (1.3M active homes on the market now, and just in 2019 2.5M homes, and in 2008 4.5M homes) this has given light to multiple offers again and properties (these are nice properties, condition good and in a good location inner tract etc.) sitting on the market for only 3-10 days. Irvine for instances just went to 10 days market time on average last month. 

    All of my team members including myself have to offer 5% at least above asking to get an offer accepted anywhere from Laguna Niguel to Long Beach to San Bernardino. The being said our market in CA, SoCal in particular have improved.

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  • AJ WongBusiness Member
    OP
    Real Estate Broker · Oregon & California Coast · Member since 2022 · 822 posts · 696 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Peter Mckernan:
    Quote from @Caroline Gerardo:

    I do not believe rates decline in the next five months. Credit card defaults up, student loan repayment back (43 million people have student loans with average payment of $320.) While the cost of eggs and toilet paper settled down average Americans will struggle to make mortgage payment. Perhaps after Halloween things may get better. 

    I'm happy your market has improved. This is not true in CA, ID, PA, AZ, FL, NY, NJ, TX yet. Some luxury pockets held on because they are all cash. The South and Midwest values have slipped a tiny 2%.


     We did have a low, but with tight inventory historically (1.3M active homes on the market now, and just in 2019 2.5M homes, and in 2008 4.5M homes) this has given light to multiple offers again and properties (these are nice properties, condition good and in a good location inner tract etc.) sitting on the market for only 3-10 days. Irvine for instances just went to 10 days market time on average last month. 

    All of my team members including myself have to offer 5% at least above asking to get an offer accepted anywhere from Laguna Niguel to Long Beach to San Bernardino. The being said our market in CA, SoCal in particular have improved.


     Personally shopping for a primary in West San Diego and the valuations and competition is incredible. I even considered renting but suitable properties are $4500+ monthly and good luck securing one.. I've doubled down on my trajectory and investment opportunities for Coastal Oregon. No value like it on the Pacific. 

    Sesemi | STR Brokers powered by Fathom Realty 516 Reviews
  • Lender · Washington DC · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    3y

    Case Schiller (AKA FRED); HPI both show slowing in April for OC and Oregon.

    Overall numbers show 2% decline. The fraction is small and probably not measurable yet in terms of a city or a county. Inventory remains tight for all of the west coast, more so in coastal than inland. BUT Riverside includes the stats for Palm Springs, Menifee, Chino ... are on Boomtown lists for 2022 because someone in Los Angeles could afford to buy a house  at $500000 vs a million and work remote or set it up cute for AirBnB.  

    The economy is not great. Inventory still low. People with 3% loan will hang on best they can and not move.

    The Fed is not reducing rates in the next couple months, but then an airplane can be crashed into a symbolic building or another pandemic comes along, or something else wild and bad. Bad news makes rates go down not inventory or prices of homes.  

    @Peter Mckernan  happy you are doing well in a tough market, keep boxing it out... My office is in Irvine and I live in Laguna, I know agents are swimming as fast as they can. 

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