Who thinks Detroit will turn around within the next 5 years?

Detroit, MI · Member since 2014 · 40 posts · 5 votes

I've been on BP for a little under a week now, I love this site it's so informative. My question to you guys though is "Do you believe Detroit is making a turn around for the better & Will the change be noticed within the next 5 years???" I've seen too many people bagging on my city it's ridiculous. It bothers me that our city is in this particular situation because we've got sooo many great people who wanna see/make a change here & i'm one of them.

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Tom A.

Investor · West Bloomfield, MI · Member since 2009 · 358 posts · 306 votes

12y

I have to reject the premise of the question because it asks if "Detroit" will turn around in 5 years. What is "Detroit"?

If you know the city then you know it's the size of Boston, San Francisco and Manhattan combined. It's not one monolithic neighborhood and it never has been.

Some areas clearly have momentum. There are areas where rentals are hard to find, waiting lists abound and landlords with desired properties have increased rents from $1100/mo. to $1500/mo. in one year.

There are other areas that are bad and getting worse. And then there is the urban prarie, the land that was occupied by many of the 2 million people who lived in the city in the 50's, that's now vacant and fallow.

There's not just one story of Detroit, or one future trajectory. Like many cities, Detroit real estate is neighborhood by neighborhood.

We can discuss the city's overall finances, or mass transit, or the local economy and refer to "Detroit" as one entity, but when looking at a "potential turnaround" you better specify the neighborhood or even the cross streets.

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Brian L.
Wholesaler · Westminster, CO · Member since 2014 · 309 posts · 104 votes
12y
Hello @Account Closed and welcome to BP. I am a Detroit defector, I left about 2 years ago. From what I hear things have only gotten worse in the 2 years that I've been gone so I'll have to say no on the 2 year timeline. That being said, it will turn around thanks to people like you. Those that are smart enough to stick it out and be a part of the change can potentially make a lot of money in real estate. Of course the big question is when?
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Scott K.
Real Estate Investor · Madison Heights, MI · Member since 2014 · 693 posts · 216 votes
12y
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
I've been on BP for a little under a week now, I love this site it's so informative. My question to you guys though is "Do you believe Detroit is making a turn around for the better & Will the change be noticed within the next 5 years???" I've seen too many people bagging on my city it's ridiculous. It bothers me that our city is in this particular situation because we've got sooo many great people who wanna see/make a change here & i'm one of them.

I go into the neighborhoods everyday. No the city is not making a comeback anytime soon. Do you think that all those vacant lots and bombed out houses will be replaced with new housing? I don't see it. So after all the free money runs out in clearing all that land who in their right mind would build on the vacant land?

There are good deals in the burbs and you won't have to be bothered messing with the city.

You may want to be a do gooder but that will break you.

My contractors have been robbed at gun point 6 times last year. I have been robbed at gunpoint also last year. I have found dead people in the houses I go to. Shot in the back of the head.

Its your money so do what you want but I just don't understand the interest in the outer neighborhoods in Detroit
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Ryan R.
Real Estate Investor · Central, TX · Member since 2012 · 479 posts · 165 votes
12y
No. And there's no magic fairy that caused it's demise. It was the result of a political ideology. Until they reverse that, it will never will turnaround.
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Account Closed
OP
Detroit, MI · Member since 2014 · 40 posts · 5 votes
12y
@Brian L. Thank you. From locals I've spoken with & newspaper ads/ articles I've been reading word of mouth is there has been a change in the last few years. Did you get this information out of an article or ad? If so I'd love to read it, I'm not disagreeing with you I honestly just want to know the truth so I can assess what I'm getting myself into & be prepared to analyze how long it will be before I get my first actual wholesale deal.
0 Reply
Scott K.
Real Estate Investor · Madison Heights, MI · Member since 2014 · 693 posts · 216 votes
12y
Sorry to bag on Detroit but its still a pit except for midtown or downtown.

I called 911 today it they didn't even try to send help to me with a guy that pointed a gun at me. That is the Detroit you will be dealing with.

Also good luck with getting permits.
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Account Closed
OP
Detroit, MI · Member since 2014 · 40 posts · 5 votes
12y
@Scott K. I can honestly say that's not too shocking but then again it is. What neighborhoods were you in? I mean Downtown, Midtown, & the Boston Edison District are great places to invest from what I've seen/ read/ & been told. It's really unfortunate that we have people here who don't understand the value of life, let alone the fact that when you burn down these wonderful homes your destroying your neighborhood. I mean who doesn't want neighbors!!! If you don't then move to the country.
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Scott K.
Real Estate Investor · Madison Heights, MI · Member since 2014 · 693 posts · 216 votes
12y
I am talking about Fenkell and Greenfield, off the Davison and the entire eastside is worthless. Also Downtown is being bought up from the big boys so now the prices are going up.

I would look at Corktown........and that a big maybe at that.

Tell me where are you going to be buying these houses?
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Account Closed
OP
Detroit, MI · Member since 2014 · 40 posts · 5 votes
12y
@Scott K. Sorry to hear that, it's pitiful how we have so many uneducated & irrational thinkers in our city who do things like that. You were in a "warzone" area as people call them. I'm not too far away from there & it's amazing because where I stay is totally different & isn't considered "warzone" territory until you get closer to Puritan. I read articles & I also try to get in touch with investors & real estate agents to see where they are buying. I haven't been doing this very long I haven't even closed a deal yet but being from this city I know where to be & where not to go. Would you prefer to stick to the suburbs of Detroit although there is a lot more competition & a lot less property up for grabs?
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Ed Wood
Real Estate Broker · Orange, CA · Member since 2008 · 380 posts · 87 votes
12y
convert blighted areas to farmland and it might
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Jerry W.Pro Member
Moderator
Investor · Thermopolis, WY · Member since 2012 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
12y
I believe Detroit will not turn around anytime soon. I have a brother who has been to Iraq and Afghanistan and he told me the death rate is lower there than in Detroit from violent means. Last I looked it was the highest murder rate per 100,000 in the US. A huge problem is the large number of folks who left or are unemployed. Vacant houses and no money is a recipe for crime, as is desperation.
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Bobby Beard
Real Estate Investor · Panama City, FL · Member since 2012 · 265 posts · 58 votes
12y
Call me crazy but if Detroit is going to return it will be as corporate farms. Demolish all the houses and start grow houses and farm land. Only way IMHO
0 Reply
Scott K.
Real Estate Investor · Madison Heights, MI · Member since 2014 · 693 posts · 216 votes
12y
Originally posted by @Jerry W.:
I believe Detroit will not turn around anytime soon. I have a brother who has been to Iraq and Afghanistan and he told me the death rate is lower there than in Detroit from violent means. Last I looked it was the highest murder rate per 100,000 in the US. A huge problem is the large number of folks who left or are unemployed. Vacant houses and no money is a recipe for crime, as is desperation.

I go to those vacant houses everyday. I drives me crazy when people think Detroit is making a comeback. They have no clue what they are talking about. You can't change the culture of violence. Every house in Detroit gets stripped even when people live there. They have made tools to get the siding off houses in 3 mins. I have seen it myself.
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Brian Illingworth
Brighton, MI · Member since 2013 · 29 posts · 4 votes
12y
I don't think there is any possible way that Detroit can turn around in 5 years. The problems in the city are far to massive for that short of a time line. I don't know what the answer is, but as was stated above I do believe that if there is any type of turn around it will be at the helm of corporations.
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Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
12y
Its basic RE 101 functional and economic obsolescence... One just needs to go to Rome and see where modern Rome is built on top of ancient Rome. These war zones of Detroit will be bulldozed and turned into open space. And Detroit is not the only place look at many other areas of major rust belt towns.

Population and jobs does not support the current housing stock and it will only get worse as downtown revitalization creates housing that goes vertical and higher density
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OP
Detroit, MI · Member since 2014 · 40 posts · 5 votes
12y
So the best thing for a local investor to do is get in on the action downtown where all of the major renovations are going on. @Jay Hinrichs ???

It seems as though areas closer to downtown where all of the investors are are very hard to find properties to wholesale or that are even up for grabs without a major name or being a realtor. Any advice?
0 Reply
Stephen S.
Wholesaler · Holiday, FL · Member since 2013 · 571 posts · 221 votes
12y
I think Detroit will turn around in the next five years - but I think it will be a turn for the worse. The politics, tax philosophy, and lack of suitable demographic will continue to doom the city.

Of course it's just my opinion; I could be wrong.

Originally posted by @Account Closed:
I've been on BP for a little under a week now, I love this site it's so informative. My question to you guys though is "Do you believe Detroit is making a turn around for the better & Will the change be noticed within the next 5 years???" I've seen too many people bagging on my city it's ridiculous. It bothers me that our city is in this particular situation because we've got sooo many great people who wanna see/make a change here & i'm one of them.
0 Reply
Account Closed
OP
Detroit, MI · Member since 2014 · 40 posts · 5 votes
12y
I"m hoping not @Stephen S.
0 Reply
Ryan R.
Real Estate Investor · Central, TX · Member since 2012 · 479 posts · 165 votes
12y
Here's an interesting read on Detroit:

http://www.freep.com/interactive/article/20130915/NEWS01/130801004/Detroit-Bankruptcy-history-1950-debt-pension-revenue
0 Reply
Scott McMahan
Flint, MI · Member since 2013 · 106 posts · 38 votes
12y
Great read, @Ryan R.

What concerns me going forward is how one dimensional the economy remains. Optimists like to point to growing services and seeds of tech startups but the economy is still primarily dependent on producing vehicles that utilize the combustion engine. Decentralization is a trend in almost every industry - where smaller players innovate and transform an industry, opening doors for other smaller players to compete. As technology continues to evolve for improved electric motors and storage, the combustion engine will eventually become obsolete and there will be significant disruption in the automotive industry. I'm not an industry insider, but I don't see that the big three or any of the small, medium, and large manufacturers are preparing adequately for that disruption. I hope to be wrong about that.

I took my kids to the Detroit Historical Museum a few weeks ago and it's amazing how much business innovation was happening in Detroit from the 1890s through the 40s and 50s. That innovation and business leadership made Detroit a great city. What new, big employers have been born out of Detroit in the last 50 years?

In order for Detroit to turn around, it has to attract entrepreneurs and employers. The opposite is happening now.

I agree that the highest and best use of most of the vacant lots in the city would be farmland. But what farmer would trade the wholesome environment of a rural farm for bullet dodging in the city? Farmland in Michigan is widely available and relatively inexpensive.

All that said, there are some wonderful things about Detroit. Lake St. Clair and the Detroit River are beautiful. Downtown is pretty awesome. If the population of Detroit could overcome its heavy liberal and entitlement-oriented bias and demand conservative, fiscally sound, and business-friendly policy that encourages business innovators to come to Detroit there could be a renaissance. Not in five years though.
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Scott McMahan
Flint, MI · Member since 2013 · 106 posts · 38 votes
12y
Also, from an investor's standpoint, unless you're George Soros, the surest way to go broke is to swim against the trend.
1 Reply
Tom A.
Investor · West Bloomfield, MI · Member since 2009 · 358 posts · 306 votes
12y
I have to reject the premise of the question because it asks if "Detroit" will turn around in 5 years. What is "Detroit"?

If you know the city then you know it's the size of Boston, San Francisco and Manhattan combined. It's not one monolithic neighborhood and it never has been.

Some areas clearly have momentum. There are areas where rentals are hard to find, waiting lists abound and landlords with desired properties have increased rents from $1100/mo. to $1500/mo. in one year.

There are other areas that are bad and getting worse. And then there is the urban prarie, the land that was occupied by many of the 2 million people who lived in the city in the 50's, that's now vacant and fallow.

There's not just one story of Detroit, or one future trajectory. Like many cities, Detroit real estate is neighborhood by neighborhood.

We can discuss the city's overall finances, or mass transit, or the local economy and refer to "Detroit" as one entity, but when looking at a "potential turnaround" you better specify the neighborhood or even the cross streets.
7 Reply
Colin L.
Architect · San Diego, CA · Member since 2013 · 244 posts · 101 votes
12y
Originally posted by @Ed Wood:
convert blighted areas to farmland and it might

this is already happening:

http://inhabitat.com/hundreds-of-vacant-detroit-lots-to-become-worlds-largest-urban-farm/

@Tom A. well said. "turnaround" is the wrong word, i think. in 5 years "detroit" will be something new and different.
1 Reply
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OP
Detroit, MI · Member since 2014 · 40 posts · 5 votes
12y
That is a great point @Tom A.
0 Reply
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OP
Detroit, MI · Member since 2014 · 40 posts · 5 votes
12y
@Colin L. they have turned a few vacant lots into farm land but only a few, we need people to keep these area's up. If the people of our city can't even have something we like to call self-control how can we expect them to keep these area's up especially when it seems as though many of our citizens have the slightest clue about respect for others??? & @Tom A. I'm praying that it will be something new & exciting so people can stop leaving the city.
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Account Closed
OP
Detroit, MI · Member since 2014 · 40 posts · 5 votes
12y
@Colin L. If John Hantz is successful & can buy the other 180 acres of land it would be a perfect start when it comes to the farmland idea. I believe the decision Snyder made to approve this was a great one. The question is what are others doing when it comes to being a part of the change??? Many are just losing hope.
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