Who thinks Detroit will turn around within the next 5 years?
Detroit, MI · Member since 2014 · 40 posts · 5 votes
Who thinks Detroit will turn around within the next 5 years?
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I have to reject the premise of the question because it asks if "Detroit" will turn around in 5 years. What is "Detroit"?
If you know the city then you know it's the size of Boston, San Francisco and Manhattan combined. It's not one monolithic neighborhood and it never has been.
Some areas clearly have momentum. There are areas where rentals are hard to find, waiting lists abound and landlords with desired properties have increased rents from $1100/mo. to $1500/mo. in one year.
There are other areas that are bad and getting worse. And then there is the urban prarie, the land that was occupied by many of the 2 million people who lived in the city in the 50's, that's now vacant and fallow.
There's not just one story of Detroit, or one future trajectory. Like many cities, Detroit real estate is neighborhood by neighborhood.
We can discuss the city's overall finances, or mass transit, or the local economy and refer to "Detroit" as one entity, but when looking at a "potential turnaround" you better specify the neighborhood or even the cross streets.
130 Replies
I think the urban farming thing is rather over-hyped. While there are some great projects underway, most are very small scale - just a few city lots at a time.
I've worked with one on the East Side and in addition to growign vegetables in the summer, they have a hoop house for year-round cool-weather produce, a lot with fruit trees, a lot with chickens and goats and they purchased the old, abandoned corner store and turned it into a community center with a library, computers and meeting area. That's all great and I support their efforts, but it only involves maybe 8-10 lots total. I just don't see it as scalable.
The Haantz Farms project is much larger but they are growing timber. That to me is really more a way to tie up the land for a long time, speculating on future development, than an agricultural business.
While I think the community gardens can be great for a neighborhood, and a few people are making money growing niche agricultural products, I don't see urban farming as something that will employ large numbers of people or consume a large proportion of Detroit's vacant land.
- Dallas, TX · Member since 2013 · 4k+ posts · 744 votes12y
I think the city of Detroit will rebound once they run all the unions out town on the next chicken truck.
My 2cents,Joe Gore
The three biggest problems with the city are crime, taxes, and schools. Until you fix those three, there's no hope. Even the people moving to Midtown and Corktown are mostly people without kids. Once they have school age children, they will be heading to the suburbs.
- Detroit, MI · Member since 2014 · 40 posts · 5 votes12y
@Scott McMahan you said it as best as it could possibly be said. This post needs to be saved & resubmitted in an article or newspaper or something. Great perspective, maybe out government needs to read these statements on this forum & take a lot of what you guys are saying into consideration for a change in our city!!!
Originally posted by @Jon Klaus:
That huge jump from 1910-1920 is thanks to Henry Ford (one of my heroes) paying workers $5 per day. It was an unheard of wage at that time. People came to Detroit from all over America, including my great-grandparents, because of Henry Ford. I wouldn't be here right now if it weren't for his genius and forward thinking.
- Detroit, MI · Member since 2014 · 40 posts · 5 votes12y
BP has many very intelligent members with great ideas! I've learned a lot more from you guys on here just by a few conversations than I have reading all many of the books I have. Some of you should consider being mentors honestly. I just want to thank all of you for your input & I have to say I'm grateful for it.
- Involved In Real Estate · Lynchburg, VA · Member since 2013 · 246 posts · 75 votes12y
I've never been to Detroit so this is only my opinion based on what I see elsewhere. It's REALLY hard, near impossible, to revitalize areas that become low end rental areas. And if I'm not mistaken that is what's happening in Detroit (city) on a large scale.
When all the buildings around you are thrashed out, and the tenants are low end, are you really going to spend money fixing up the house/neighborhood? No, so it will just keep spiraling downward.
Unless there is a massive push back towards middle class owner occupants, it will never improve. They would basically have to start with the best area and then revitalize street by street around it.
- Detroit, MI · Member since 2014 · 40 posts · 5 votes12y
@Account Closed That's what seems to be going on now. Investors are starting from downtown & working their way north down Woodward & East down Grand River. But what about the areas in between? Do you guys believe these will be converted into farmland also, I'm not sure that would be good in certain neighborhoods of Detroit. Some places must be revitalized & @Rob K. schools are a must in order for this great city to thrive again.
Originally posted by @Rob K.:
The three biggest problems with the city are crime, taxes, and schools. Until you fix those three, there's no hope. Even the people moving to Midtown and Corktown are mostly people without kids. Once they have school age children, they will be heading to the suburbs.This a 1000 times this. You can't have families that are middle class moving into the city with the bad schools and the crime
- Investor · Macomb, MI · Member since 2013 · 654 posts · 115 votes12y
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
I've been on BP for a little under a week now, I love this site it's so informative. My question to you guys though is "Do you believe Detroit is making a turn around for the better & Will the change be noticed within the next 5 years???" I've seen too many people bagging on my city it's ridiculous. It bothers me that our city is in this particular situation because we've got sooo many great people who wanna see/make a change here & i'm one of them.Hi Sanchez, I'm so glad that you posted this. I don't invest in the city, but am on the borders. Too many people here in Michigan and especially out of State truly don't know what is going on here.
I want to move into the city but don't have the right 'area knowledge' of where to go for my budget. I know there are still some great areas. Midtown, downtown, East English Village, Sherwood Forest, Rosedale Park to mention a few.
Even Mexican town can be great. In fact now it's vurtually impossible to find a property in that part of detroit for sale. When one does, it's gone in days. But sooooo many people don't get this.
I posted on facebook a link for anyone who has netflix. Check out a documentary called 'Detropia'. There is so much history, diversity, and beauty in Detroit. If enough people who care get together, many areas will come back. But it will take current residences to truly want this as well and NOT blame everyone else for the problems.
- Investor · Macomb, MI · Member since 2013 · 654 posts · 115 votes12y
Originally posted by @Scott K.:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
I've been on BP for a little under a week now, I love this site it's so informative. My question to you guys though is "Do you believe Detroit is making a turn around for the better & Will the change be noticed within the next 5 years???" I've seen too many people bagging on my city it's ridiculous. It bothers me that our city is in this particular situation because we've got sooo many great people who wanna see/make a change here & i'm one of them.I go into the neighborhoods everyday. No the city is not making a comeback anytime soon. Do you think that all those vacant lots and bombed out houses will be replaced with new housing? I don't see it. So after all the free money runs out in clearing all that land who in their right mind would build on the vacant land?
There are good deals in the burbs and you won't have to be bothered messing with the city.
You may want to be a do gooder but that will break you.
My contractors have been robbed at gun point 6 times last year. I have been robbed at gunpoint also last year. I have found dead people in the houses I go to. Shot in the back of the head.
Its your money so do what you want but I just don't understand the interest in the outer neighborhoods in Detroit
Many have had these experiences. And all talk about it. But many also are making money because they found the areas to make money. Especially commerical right now in Downtown and Midtown.
Most won't brag about the good and when they do no one listens. But when someone has a complaint, everyone listens and they pass that on to everyone else because it's easier to believe.
It's ashame people have this way of thinking.
- Investor · Macomb, MI · Member since 2013 · 654 posts · 115 votes12y
Originally posted by @Ryan R.:
No. And there's no magic fairy that caused it's demise. It was the result of a political ideology. Until they reverse that, it will never will turnaround.MANY things factored in to the current state of Detroit. Unless you live there you truly can not understand what happened or the ripple affect of the auto industry crash in 2008/2009.
So you and everyone else that states their 'opinion' on Detroit truly means nothing. No disrespect to you, but this is something that drives me crazy. I know @Account Closed was asking for opinions, but how can anyone not at least within proximity of the city or in Michigan give any real opinion?
All you have is what you see on the news. And as stated previously, that's only what people want you to see. There is so much good news EVERYWHERE in our nation but that's not what people want to hear or see.... WHY???
- Investor · Macomb, MI · Member since 2013 · 654 posts · 115 votes12y
Originally posted by @Scott K.:
Sorry to bag on Detroit but its still a pit except for midtown or downtown.
I called 911 today it they didn't even try to send help to me with a guy that pointed a gun at me. That is the Detroit you will be dealing with.
Also good luck with getting permits.
I personally had the police laugh at me back in 2006 when my car broke down. 3 tow companies either not come or just drive by.
Why??? because residents dont' care. It's not just the city officials or the police. It's a combined effort.
Why is sherwood forest so thriving? No crime? No BS? Because the residents care. They got tired of the BS.They pay for their own security company to patrol. They paid to have curbs put in to prevent people cutting through their neighborhood. They take care of their lawns, their homes.. THEY CARE.
When you get residents to 'Care' in Detroit, then that neighborhood can come back. Leveling the properties will move the careless people out. Allow for new developement and bring people who 'Care' back into the city.
Of course this won't happen over night. It will take years. Look at the size of Detroit. It can be split into multiple cities within itself. But people would rather bash on Detroit than think positive and understand that its essentially a world in-itself.
- Investor · Macomb, MI · Member since 2013 · 654 posts · 115 votes12y
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
@Scott K. Sorry to hear that, it's pitiful how we have so many uneducated & irrational thinkers in our city who do things like that. You were in a "warzone" area as people call them. I'm not too far away from there & it's amazing because where I stay is totally different & isn't considered "warzone" territory until you get closer to Puritan. I read articles & I also try to get in touch with investors & real estate agents to see where they are buying. I haven't been doing this very long I haven't even closed a deal yet but being from this city I know where to be & where not to go. Would you prefer to stick to the suburbs of Detroit although there is a lot more competition & a lot less property up for grabs?This is a great asset you have. I personally was looking for this last summer when I had some cash to invest. People like you who still live there and see people 'staying' in Detroit is what is needed to help outsiders like me.
I am out of cash right now but still have the ambition to go into Detroit at some point. The issue is that the news only shows the warzones... and yes the Eastside somehow is the main area that gets reported... due to murders, crime, poverty...
Why? Many residents don't care. They don't say what they saw. Instead the criminals control the area. This is the area I was laughed at by the cops. I am white, was in a run down, burnt down neighborhood with a white car at 11pm at night. I was scared shitless...
I use to live at 9 and van dyke and became very familiar with the 8 mile line.
I called my friend from the Westside. He even asked me WTF I was doing there... In any case, he came out... I had no issues even before he arrived and maybe that's cause people thought if I was crazy enough to be there that they shouldn't mess with me. In any case, I truly believe that things escalate based on the situation and your response.
At one time in my life I was living by St. Josephs Hospital off Woodward in Pontiac. Not the greatest area back in 1998. I had to walk past the hospital, through the neighborhood all the way to telegraph to Chi-Chi's restaurant in the early evening then back at 2am in the morning. It was not a 'white-welcomed' neighborhood. Still, the only problem I had was some heckling. The people who had real issues didn't have the common sense to keep their mouth shut and just keep walking.
I personally have seen the same in Mexico City which FAR surpasses the danger of Detroit. But I survived their as well.
So everyone needs to get over the bad publicity of Detroit and move on.
- Investor · Macomb, MI · Member since 2013 · 654 posts · 115 votes12y
Originally posted by @Jerry W.:
I believe Detroit will not turn around anytime soon. I have a brother who has been to Iraq and Afghanistan and he told me the death rate is lower there than in Detroit from violent means. Last I looked it was the highest murder rate per 100,000 in the US. A huge problem is the large number of folks who left or are unemployed. Vacant houses and no money is a recipe for crime, as is desperation.Of course work can create an issue. But the biggest problem?? Residents don't care. I personally see this and have a tenant who works for the city and has for 10 years now. He sees the good and bad. It's not just the city, its the residents as well who create this issue.
- Investor · Macomb, MI · Member since 2013 · 654 posts · 115 votes12y
Originally posted by @Scott K.:
Originally posted by @Jerry W.:
I believe Detroit will not turn around anytime soon. I have a brother who has been to Iraq and Afghanistan and he told me the death rate is lower there than in Detroit from violent means. Last I looked it was the highest murder rate per 100,000 in the US. A huge problem is the large number of folks who left or are unemployed. Vacant houses and no money is a recipe for crime, as is desperation.I go to those vacant houses everyday. I drives me crazy when people think Detroit is making a comeback. They have no clue what they are talking about. You can't change the culture of violence. Every house in Detroit gets stripped even when people live there. They have made tools to get the siding off houses in 3 mins. I have seen it myself.
You should quit going to the Eastside. Educate yourself some more and expand your driving.
Just a suggestion.
- Investor · Macomb, MI · Member since 2013 · 654 posts · 115 votes12y
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
So the best thing for a local investor to do is get in on the action downtown where all of the major renovations are going on. @Jay Hinrichs ???
It seems as though areas closer to downtown where all of the investors are are very hard to find properties to wholesale or that are even up for grabs without a major name or being a realtor. Any advice?Yeah... IGNORE EVERYONE who is not local and not truly knowledgable about Detroit.
Investors are making money their. But you will not see them on here bragging. You think they want everyone knowing where they are making a killing?? Come on..
Hell even in my market. I know some investors who are literally millionaires in my market and they NEVER talk about it on here. When I do, people think I'm lying. At least @Lisa Phillips finally got through and was able to get a podcast for her market which is very similar to mine and how I work.
- Investor · Macomb, MI · Member since 2013 · 654 posts · 115 votes12y
Originally posted by @Scott McMahan:
Great read, @Ryan R.
What concerns me going forward is how one dimensional the economy remains. Optimists like to point to growing services and seeds of tech startups but the economy is still primarily dependent on producing vehicles that utilize the combustion engine. Decentralization is a trend in almost every industry - where smaller players innovate and transform an industry, opening doors for other smaller players to compete. As technology continues to evolve for improved electric motors and storage, the combustion engine will eventually become obsolete and there will be significant disruption in the automotive industry. I'm not an industry insider, but I don't see that the big three or any of the small, medium, and large manufacturers are preparing adequately for that disruption. I hope to be wrong about that.
I took my kids to the Detroit Historical Museum a few weeks ago and it's amazing how much business innovation was happening in Detroit from the 1890s through the 40s and 50s. That innovation and business leadership made Detroit a great city. What new, big employers have been born out of Detroit in the last 50 years?
In order for Detroit to turn around, it has to attract entrepreneurs and employers. The opposite is happening now.
I agree that the highest and best use of most of the vacant lots in the city would be farmland. But what farmer would trade the wholesome environment of a rural farm for bullet dodging in the city? Farmland in Michigan is widely available and relatively inexpensive.
All that said, there are some wonderful things about Detroit. Lake St. Clair and the Detroit River are beautiful. Downtown is pretty awesome. If the population of Detroit could overcome its heavy liberal and entitlement-oriented bias and demand conservative, fiscally sound, and business-friendly policy that encourages business innovators to come to Detroit there could be a renaissance. Not in five years though.
Where are you getting your information from? I'm in the auto industry here in Metro Detroit and travel due to this. Most automotive is STILL based from Michigan. You have no idea what you are talking about in regards to the combustion engine and the technology at hand here locally in Detroit and the metro areas.
This is why so many people are misinformed. They believe everything the news and reports tell them. They never listen to us that are physically in the industry.
Yes many manufacturing jobs have left Detroit. I think somewhere in the area of 50% from years ago. But many things are coming back in Detroit and Metro Detroit in regards to manufacturing, automation, movies and more. I don't even research this and I come across this on a normal basis.
How come no one talks about the new Mayor of Detroit, Mike Duggan, who was an outsider tired of seeing the BS. The first 'White' Mayor in Decades who prior to this has created nice areas for people to live, turned around an almost bankrupt hospital, the guy who won as a 'write-in' candidate. The guy who won after 2 recounts and had more votes each time... oh wait, I know why... it's not 'bad news' so it's no news.
- Investor · Macomb, MI · Member since 2013 · 654 posts · 115 votes12y
Originally posted by @Scott McMahan:
Also, from an investor's standpoint, unless you're George Soros, the surest way to go broke is to swim against the trend.WOW.... this is the exact opposite from what John D Rockefeller said...
But who was he right...
- Investor · Macomb, MI · Member since 2013 · 654 posts · 115 votes12y
Originally posted by @Tom A.:
I have to reject the premise of the question because it asks if "Detroit" will turn around in 5 years. What is "Detroit"?
If you know the city then you know it's the size of Boston, San Francisco and Manhattan combined. It's not one monolithic neighborhood and it never has been.
Some areas clearly have momentum. There are areas where rentals are hard to find, waiting lists abound and landlords with desired properties have increased rents from $1100/mo. to $1500/mo. in one year.
There are other areas that are bad and getting worse. And then there is the urban prarie, the land that was occupied by many of the 2 million people who lived in the city in the 50's, that's now vacant and fallow.
There's not just one story of Detroit, or one future trajectory. Like many cities, Detroit real estate is neighborhood by neighborhood.
We can discuss the city's overall finances, or mass transit, or the local economy and refer to "Detroit" as one entity, but when looking at a "potential turnaround" you better specify the neighborhood or even the cross streets.
Oh my god.... THANK YOU TOM.... I was going crazy here replying to the closed minded people here. I can't even get through the post yet without responding....
- Investor · Macomb, MI · Member since 2013 · 654 posts · 115 votes12y
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Scott McMahan:
Great read, @Ryan R.
What concerns me going forward is how one dimensional the economy remains. Optimists like to point to growing services and seeds of tech startups but the economy is still primarily dependent on producing vehicles that utilize the combustion engine. Decentralization is a trend in almost every industry - where smaller players innovate and transform an industry, opening doors for other smaller players to compete. As technology continues to evolve for improved electric motors and storage, the combustion engine will eventually become obsolete and there will be significant disruption in the automotive industry. I'm not an industry insider, but I don't see that the big three or any of the small, medium, and large manufacturers are preparing adequately for that disruption. I hope to be wrong about that.It's really now just the big two technically. Now that Chrysler is known as "Fiat Chrysler" and is headquartered in the Netherlands as of this week.
To me that's a huge development (even though it's been in the works for a long time) that nobody is really talking about.
Thank you. And if you want to get even more technical, Toyota I believe it is, is more 'American' than our own cars are. I think the number was around 80% built in America for Toyota a couple years ago. I know this because I am in the industry and am familiar with many of the vehicles built out-of-country that we call 'American'.
The Union workers don't see it that way though. The stay strong with their 'buy american' stickers while they work on the assembly line where most parts are shipped in from other countries to be assemble here.
So in actuality we should say 'Assembled' in America. Oh and more expensive, built with a little less quality (except for chrysler after daimler first bought them)... this I know also due to my job. Sorry for spilling the beans to all you die-hard workers in denial.
Mercedes took the profits from Chrysler to expand ( but at the same time bring dodge and chrysler back to quality) then when they were done they sold Chrysler and moved on. Yes, I know this too from my work I do. But I won't swear on that in court obviously... :-)
Food for thought!
wake up america!
- Investor · Macomb, MI · Member since 2013 · 654 posts · 115 votes12y
Originally posted by @Rob K.:
The three biggest problems with the city are crime, taxes, and schools. Until you fix those three, there's no hope. Even the people moving to Midtown and Corktown are mostly people without kids. Once they have school age children, they will be heading to the suburbs.True.. Hipsters I believe is the term for them now? But again, if residents cared... it would make all the difference.
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