Did I Predict the 2022 Housing Market Correctly? What I Got Right and Wrong

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  • Brian Ploszay
    Member since 2021 · 28 posts · 5 votes
    4y

    "underwrote deals with little to no market appreciation in the next few years" A prediction for the future. I'll agree with that.

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  • Kathy FettkePro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2014 · 104 posts · 180 votes
    4y

    Love this! You were in very good company with the mortgage rate predictions....

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  • Nathan GesnerBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Broker · Cody, WY · Member since 2010 · 28k+ posts · 41k+ votes
    4y

    Good analysis, Dave! And it's nice to see you admit the mistakes. Anyone that claims to know the future is a fool.

    I'm not a data guy, but I had the same expectations as you. Growth in the first half, slowing in the second. I'm still holding to my belief that 2023 will be the correction. I don't anticipate a 2008 crash, but it would not surprise me to see us lose most of the gains from 2021/2022. I'm also predicting some major turns in short-term rentals. Markets are becoming saturated, too many amateurs jumped on the band wagon with no experience based on misleading numbers, and the prices are so high that a hotel makes more sense to many travelers.

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  • Curt Smith
    Rental Property Investor · Clarkston, GA · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    4y

    As prices drop, seller stress and motivation rises, more vacant houses listed (they where forced to move on), the more creative offers will be attractive. Just yesterday I have an appointment to meet and maybe sign a contract to buy subject to, give the seller their equity, a nasty divorce, a 1.5 yr old mortgage at 3% and could be $500 cash flow that was caused by a halt in the market and the seller being sick of agents. He was ok with me taking over his mortgage payments. This possible deal would NOT have been very likely 1 yr ago. He would have sold on the MLS.

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  • Carlos Ptriawan
    Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    4y

    I'm still can't believe the mortgage rate reached 6.5% today

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  • Peter Davis
    Member since 2018 · 15 posts · 4 votes
    4y

    Always enjoy your analysis and predictions. I'd say you were pretty spot on with your forecasts. No one saw rates spiking this high.

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  • Kevin McGuirePro Member
    CTO of BiggerPockets · Seattle, WA · Member since 2019 · 178 posts · 178 votes
    4y

    Love the fact you did a retrospective on your predictions, you don’t see that very often. Agree that the point of predictions is to build a model. In software development, the purpose of a retrospective is to improve (processes, models, systems…). What will you take from this analysis to improve future predictions/modelling?

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