Good breakdown. This lines up with what I’ve seen over the years. Foreclosures don’t flip a switch, they ripple out quietly at first. The national pullback gets headlines, but the real signal is always at the county level. That’s where stress shows up early, long before auctions or REOs spike. If you’re only watching state or national numbers, you’re already late. The investors who consistently find deals are the ones tracking Starts locally and staying patient while everyone else thinks the market “calmed down.”
I'm not sure where you get your data, but in Wake County NC, Substitute Trustee filings haven't changed much recently. There were 65 filings in October, 56 in November, 52 in December (through 12/26/25) per county records. To put this in perspective, from 2001 to 2010, there were zero months with less than 131 filings, with 294 being the average monthly over this timeframe. (Source: https://rodrecords.wake.gov/web/search/DOCSEARCH341S2 )