buying frenzy again ;(

buying frenzy again ;(

Investor · the desert !, CA · Member since 2008 · 78 posts · 9 votes

In the "inland empire" CA it appears that the buying depression is over,, I am making an offer on a 3/2 house in my hood and the first day it was listed (yesterday) the front of the house looks like the disneyland parking lot,,, houses are getting mulitiple offers on day one im kinda bumbed i was hoping to pick up a few more rentals this year but it looks like the competition is heavy now
my realtor told me that there are lots of " realestate investor seminar people jumping in and bidding things up way too much,
on a more positive note she said there is another huge wave of inventory comming so prices should stay dow for a while

how is it out there ? are "investors " jumping in like mad in your areas?? granted here things have fallen from $190 a sq ft at the peak to $60 a sq ft now so i think we have swung down too far.In 1999 prices were at $55 a square ft here so we are back 10 years here

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Investor · Diamond Bar, CA · Member since 2009 · 446 posts · 233 votes
16y
Originally posted by Vikram C.:
Greg, do you know what construction costs are like in your area for these homes that are selling for $75K? That is, how much per square foot would it cost to build one?


Riverside County:
1. Developer Fees $17,000 per door.
2. School Fees $6 per foot.
3. Permit/Inspection/Plan Check Fees $4,000
4. Water Meter $5,000 (if you are lucky)
5. Gas - minimum $1,000
6. Electric $500 - $5,000
7. Septic or Lateral and Connect Fee - $5,000 either way

So to build a 1,200 sq ft home you are starting at $39,700 minimum per lot.

If you build at under $29 sq ft and the land is free you can pretty much break even...... no wonder building has stopped and unemployment in the County is 16%+

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  • Investor · Mableton, GA · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 465 votes
    16y

    No, I don't think so. $60 per sq/ft is about right. Don't forget the frenzy started about 1998-1999. Of course it may be low compare to a new construction, but that is everywhere including Texas. What is the rental going for, lets say for 3/2 about 2000 sq/ft in the IE, now, ?

  • Investor · the desert !, CA · Member since 2008 · 78 posts · 9 votes
    16y

    this house i was actually buying for my family and plan to rent out my current house
    but earlier this year and last i bought 2 houses 3/2 about 1300 and 1400 sq ft for $60k- 70k these were thrashed and i rehabbed them myself for about 10 k a piece basic 3/2 house in the High desert rents for 1100 - 1200 a month so that is right at 50 % rule

  • Real Estate Investor · Audubon, PA · Member since 2009 · 13k+ posts · 8k+ votes
    16y
    Originally posted by Greg C:
    ...
    but earlier this year and last i bought 2 houses 3/2 about 1300 and 1400 sq ft for $60k- 70k these were thrashed and i rehabbed them myself for about 10 k a piece basic 3/2 house in the High desert rents for 1100 - 1200 a month so that is right at 50 % rule


    The numbers presented here look more like the 2% rule to me; this is where you multiply one month's rent by 50 to get the "maximum price to offer". 1/50 = 2%

    The 50% rule is another analysis, where the rent is divided by 2 to cover expenses, leaving one half the rent for loan principle and interest payment and cash flow or profit. Would need to have the interest rate to do that calculation; others on the BP site estimate that rate and then extrapolate the result based on that.

    But a house that meets 2% rule is usually not a bad deal.

  • Investor · the desert !, CA · Member since 2008 · 78 posts · 9 votes
    16y

    either way you want to look at it
    if you have 75k into a house that will rent for 1100,,,,,, / 2 == $550expenses
    75k 30 yrs at 6% = $449
    = $101 a door
    but like i said it is hard to do that here if all the goofs are going to jump in and bid these houses to 100k my party is over i think !

  • Investor · the desert !, CA · Member since 2008 · 78 posts · 9 votes
    16y

    $60 in my opinion has swung down too low i watch this market (high desert )very close from 1990 to about 2000 prices here went nowhere then increased very slowley till about 2003 before it went to the moon
    when things stablize here(2 years is my guess) things will settle at about 80 a sq ft would be reasonable
    in my experience and in this area prices are usually around 100 % of the monthly rent $1200 a month = $120000 sales price

  • Investor · Mableton, GA · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 465 votes
    16y

    I think the market will settle down. The summer is over and the $8K government incentive for 1st time buyer will soon run out. I also believe that giving the employment situation here in Cali, more foreclosures are on the horizon unfortunately.

  • Lender · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2008 · 351 posts · 40 votes
    16y

    I hope the buying frenzy doesnt matter. I need the short sale period to last as long as possible being a newbie and not having a great deal of cash built up. I am a little worried when the abundance of foreclosures is no longer here...

  • Real Estate Investor · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    16y

    Greg, do you know what construction costs are like in your area for these homes that are selling for $75K? That is, how much per square foot would it cost to build one?

  • Investor · the desert !, CA · Member since 2008 · 78 posts · 9 votes
    16y

    i dont know construction costs ,,, but im sure it is way higher,, which is why construction has come to a dead halt

  • OR · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 845 votes
    16y

    Greg C, don't just stand there, get out and sell something before the frenzy burns itself out.

  • Investor · the desert !, CA · Member since 2008 · 78 posts · 9 votes
    16y

    sell ?? and miss out on all the fun of getting a check everymonth for the rest of my life ? No Way!

  • Real Estate Investor · St. Louis, MO · Member since 2008 · 443 posts · 91 votes
    16y

    I'm in the St Louis market and it doesn’t seem to be a huge deal here in this market.

    Brian Haskins

  • Investor · Mableton, GA · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 465 votes
    16y
    Originally posted by Matt DuSold:
    I hope the buying frenzy doesnt matter. I need the short sale period to last as long as possible being a newbie and not having a great deal of cash built up. I am a little worried when the abundance of foreclosures is no longer here...


    Wow, talking about selfishness... ( Although I appreciate your honesty...) Hoping for other people misery so you can make a buck? Just remember, what goes around comes around...
  • Investor · Diamond Bar, CA · Member since 2009 · 446 posts · 233 votes
    16y
    Originally posted by Vikram C.:
    Greg, do you know what construction costs are like in your area for these homes that are selling for $75K? That is, how much per square foot would it cost to build one?


    Riverside County:
    1. Developer Fees $17,000 per door.
    2. School Fees $6 per foot.
    3. Permit/Inspection/Plan Check Fees $4,000
    4. Water Meter $5,000 (if you are lucky)
    5. Gas - minimum $1,000
    6. Electric $500 - $5,000
    7. Septic or Lateral and Connect Fee - $5,000 either way

    So to build a 1,200 sq ft home you are starting at $39,700 minimum per lot.

    If you build at under $29 sq ft and the land is free you can pretty much break even...... no wonder building has stopped and unemployment in the County is 16%+

  • Investor · Westminster, CO · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    16y

    Eddie, there is a big difference between "hoping for other peoples misery" and "taking advantage of the situation". For instance, if you see a hundred dollar bill laying on the ground, do you sit there feeling sorry for the person who dropped it or do you pick it up quickly? Also, you don't really wish for anyone to lose a hundred dollar bill, but if they do, I bet you would like to be the one who finds it.

  • Investor · Mableton, GA · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 465 votes
    16y
    Originally posted by Mike M:
    Eddie, there is a big difference between "hoping for other peoples misery" and "taking advantage of the situation". For instance, if you see a hundred dollar bill laying on the ground, do you sit there feeling sorry for the person who dropped it or do you pick it up quickly? Also, you don't really wish for anyone to lose a hundred dollar bill, but if they do, I bet you would like to be the one who finds it.

    Mike, I buy REOs all the time. The damage is done. There a difference between taking advantage of a situation you didn't created nor you have control over and hoping for more foreclosures or worrying that "God forbid" the stream of foreclosures will end. I'm not a religious person, but I consider myself a moral one. I think that it is immoral to hope for a situation where other people would suffer so you make a buck.
  • Lender · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2008 · 351 posts · 40 votes
    16y

    Eddie, Im not so much "hoping" people foreclose. Its going to happen regardless if I hope they do or not. And when they do foreclose and I get them out of their situation I will be more benefit to that person who is "hoping" everything ends and doesn't to anything to help anybody.

    If we were all moral as could be and wanting to do what is right no one on this forum would make a single dollar because we are pricing things higher then what they truly are(or less depending on the situation).

    Its just a way you have to look at it. Real estate investors do help people out of their foreclosure but you never see somebody jump in a deal and say boy this looks great ill help them out while spending $20,000 of my own cash, you only make a deal if you can make a buck.

  • Real Estate Investor · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    16y

    Eddie, it is quite possible to want prices to go down further and also be moral. To some extent this depends on one's perspective.

    My view is that the standard of living of a country improves when things are inexpensive relative to incomes. I would like to see a world where homes, cars, food and other things that we buy are cheap so that they are easily affordable and people have more money left for experiences such as vacations, etc. Studies done by behavioral economists show that people get more lasting satisfaction from experiences than from material possessions.

    In addition to the reason given above above, I would like home prices to go down for one more reason: I think our society has created a "moral-hazard" favoring bubbles. Whenever there is a bubble, most people like it and the government and fed encourage it with cheap money. When the bubble collapses, the government (which has no surplus, btw) stimulates the economy further and the fed makes money even cheaper. This entire thing results in a situation where we will spend most of our lives with higher-than-normal asset and commodity prices and budget deficits.

    And who pays for these budget deficits? It is the next generation. In the past, people left their savings to their children when they died. Our generation is going to do the opposite and our kids are going to be saddled with debt or inflation.

    For these and other reasons, I morally want to see home prices go down.

  • Investor · Kern county Riverside County, CA · Member since 2008 · 494 posts · 261 votes
    16y

    There are some great resources of local I.E. investors and economists that are studying the market for you so you know what to expect. Recently at the Nixon Library there was a gala of top industry experts discussion the market and what they saw coming. These experts included David Kittle, Chairman of the mortgage bankers Association, Dr. Christopher Thornberg from Beacon Economics, Rick Sharga, Senior Vice President Realty-trac, Joseph Magdziarz, Vice President Appraisal Institute, Bruce Norris, Investor and hard money lender, and other experts. You can listen to this event on http://www.thenorrisgroup.com/radio_show/
    Great information. But the bottom line is, don't worry about the competition right now. It is temporary. We have 3 inches of buyers fighting over 2 inches of property, with 3 feet of property behind the floodgate. I don't care to debate how and when and how slowly or quickly the properties will be released, but there is no way they can artificially hold this real estate market with the tsunami of foreclosures that are hitting every month.

  • Investor · Mableton, GA · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 465 votes
    16y
    Originally posted by Matt DuSold:
    If we were all moral as could be and wanting to do what is right no one on this forum would make a single dollar because we are pricing things higher then what they truly are(or less depending on the situation).



    I completely disagree with this statement. You cannot really price anything higher then what it truly worth. The market has its way to adjust to the actual value (Mark to market as the banks dread it) That's why I completely discard ARV estimates, tax assessments and all other nonsense statements that seller put out there that mean nothing.
    Originally posted by Vikram C.:

    My view is that the standard of living of a country improves when things are inexpensive relative to incomes. I would like to see a world where homes, cars, food and other things that we buy are cheap so that they are easily affordable and people have more money left for experiences such as vacations, etc. Studies done by behavioral economists show that people get more lasting satisfaction from experiences than from material possessions.

    Although I'd like to agree with this statement, we did experience a period of more then a decade of cheap products. If you don't believe me, take a walk in your neighbourhood's Walmart. Unfortunately, we are paying the price for it today. We allowed other countries to take the lead in manufacturing and, we instead made money from... well, money... People do get more satisfaction from experiences as well as being close to family and friends than they do from material possessions, however, they constantly need to be reminded of that. Only now we start learning to distinguish between what we want and what we really need.
  • Investor · Mableton, GA · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 465 votes
    16y
    Originally posted by Summerhomes:
    There are some great resources of local I.E. investors and economists that are studying the market for you so you know what to expect. Recently at the Nixon Library there was a gala of top industry experts discussion the market and what they saw coming. These experts included David Kittle, Chairman of the mortgage bankers Association, Dr. Christopher Thornberg from Beacon Economics, Rick Sharga, Senior Vice President Realty-trac, Joseph Magdziarz, Vice President Appraisal Institute, Bruce Norris, Investor and hard money lender, and other experts. You can listen to this event on http://www.thenorrisgroup.com/radio_show/
    Great information. But the bottom line is, don't worry about the competition right now. It is temporary. We have 3 inches of buyers fighting over 2 inches of property, with 3 feet of property behind the floodgate. I don't care to debate how and when and how slowly or quickly the properties will be released, but there is no way they can artificially hold this real estate market with the tsunami of foreclosures that are hitting every month.

    Although I do agree with you on that, I would wonder where were all those distinguished gentlemen in the spring of 2007 when the sub-prime market showed its first cracks. They all said. "Oh, don't worry it just a small segment of the market. It will not effect the market as a whole." If you were in the mortgage business, you must have known. That market could not sustained itself, but non of those gentlemen came out and waved their warning flags.
  • Investor · Kern county Riverside County, CA · Member since 2008 · 494 posts · 261 votes
    16y

    You obviously don't know who the "distinguished gentlemen" I pointed out are. Those distinguished gentlemen (with the exception of David Kittle, I don't know what his stance was in early 2000's) were screaming as loud as they could that the market was heading for a severe crash. Please read Bruce Norris' "California Crash" that he published in January 2006. Dr. Thornberg published a number of article in 2005-2007 predicting one of the worst real estate crashed in history. Rick Sharga predicted that foreclosures would increase every month for the next 5 years in 2005 setting record breaking total foreclosure statistics. (He was right.)
    So I refer to those men as individuals that have a track record of understanding the global and local economic picture and who have for the last 20 years provided accurate and valuable real estate economic predictions to keep little guys like me out of trouble. Which I why I didn't mention any economic predictions from C.A.R or N.A.R! They were the one's saying we would have a soft landing.

  • Investor · Mableton, GA · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 465 votes
    16y

    After listening to those gentlemen (And one Lady...), which by the way you can actually watch on video at:
    http://www.isurvived2009.com/video/
    I must say that I was impressed. Especially by Christopher Thornberg who very eloquently, explained the current situation and why we shouldn't be so complacent as we tend to be watching the stock market goes up, houses sale "stabilize", and the "Banks are making money again"
    I agree. For the time being, it is all smoke and mirrors.

  • Investor · Kern county Riverside County, CA · Member since 2008 · 494 posts · 261 votes
    16y

    I was fortunate enough to able to attend this event live. It was very cool. Dr. Thornberg is always a blast to listen to.

  • Jeff TumbarelloPro Member
    Real Estate Broker · Fort Myers, FL · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 323 votes
    16y
    Originally posted by Eddie Ziv:
    After listening to those gentlemen (And one Lady...), which by the way you can actually watch on video at:
    http://www.isurvived2009.com/video/
    I must say that I was impressed. Especially by Christopher Thornberg who very eloquently, explained the current situation and why we shouldn't be so complacent as we tend to be watching the stock market goes up, houses sale "stabilize", and the "Banks are making money again"
    I agree. For the time being, it is all smoke and mirrors.



    Three are 2 things holding the system banking system together.
    1. The low fed funds rate. How can you not make a profit with arbitrage when you are borrowing at ZERO
    2. The major stock brokerages are now folded into the FDIC system. Those fee's are offsetting the losses
    3. The BPO values used in the mark to market accounting are about 2 years old for the most part.

    I think they will find their way out of this. I wish that was not the case. We had a major crash in the late 1980's. Another 20 years later we have another major crash this time worse. Expect a humdinger in another 20 years. Since we have not fixed the problem.

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