2023 Market activity = almost equal to 2022 market equity

Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes

https://www.redfin.com/news/ho...

Looking at various chart above, my impression is this 2023 market is still too strong , market is following 2022 price/inventory pattern except with even lower inventory than 2022 and pushing the price of May 2023 to be equal to May 2022.

I guess SEC action to 'mini crash' the real estate failed miserably LOL It's just so strange that market is too strong that almost nobody willing to sell.

Almost everyone that's predicting a crash in November 2022 is wrong, @James Hamling

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Bill B.

Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes

The problem is you can’t use average selling price. People are much less likely to sell a $600k house with a Locked in 3% mortgage than a $150k condo with one. So now you have a bunch of low end sales moving the “average”.

People who have to move because of financial reasons (though I don’t see much of that in Vegas) ar usually singles in smaller cheaper housing. People selling to move in with new spouses or significant others are usually selling smaller properties. Young people willing to move to new markets for job opportunities or leaving home or school same story. Honestly I can’t believe anyone is selling who doesn’t have to. Unless they are downsizing as they get older or came in to a windfall.

We’re back to anything reasonable being under contract in a week and waiting lists for new homes. Especially single story homes.

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John Carbone
Realtor · Gatlinburg · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 957 votes
3y
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

https://www.redfin.com/news/ho...

Looking at various chart above, my impression is this 2023 market is still too strong , market is following 2022 price/inventory pattern except with even lower inventory than 2022 and pushing the price of May 2023 to be equal to May 2022.

I guess SEC action to 'mini crash' the real estate failed miserably LOL It's just so strange that market is too strong that almost nobody willing to sell.

Almost everyone that's predicting a crash in November 2022 is wrong, @James Hamling

479k to 436k for median sales price according to St. Louis fed. This is the chart I was always showing in the infamous several month long post last year here. Since then, 9 percent drop in a quarter is pretty strong, we should see q2 soon. Seems like exactly as I was predicting. We will see 20 percent peak to trough by end of this year which was my base case. Surely anyone who rented 12 months ago as opposed to buying is in a much better situation in 99 percent of cases. Rents have dropped pretty significantly in most markets as well.
1 Reply
Carlos Ptriawan
OP
Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
3y
Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

https://www.redfin.com/news/ho...

Looking at various chart above, my impression is this 2023 market is still too strong , market is following 2022 price/inventory pattern except with even lower inventory than 2022 and pushing the price of May 2023 to be equal to May 2022.

I guess SEC action to 'mini crash' the real estate failed miserably LOL It's just so strange that market is too strong that almost nobody willing to sell.

Almost everyone that's predicting a crash in November 2022 is wrong, @James Hamling

479k to 436k for median sales price according to St. Louis fed. This is the chart I was always showing in the infamous several month long post last year here. Since then, 9 percent drop in a quarter is pretty strong, we should see q2 soon. Seems like exactly as I was predicting. We will see 20 percent peak to trough by end of this year which was my base case. Surely anyone who rented 12 months ago as opposed to buying is in a much better situation in 99 percent of cases. Rents have dropped pretty significantly in most markets as well.

HUD is having lagging data. Actually I'm surprised how could May 2023 is reaching May 2022 price level --per Redfin data LOL.
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John Carbone
Realtor · Gatlinburg · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 957 votes
3y
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

https://www.redfin.com/news/ho...

Looking at various chart above, my impression is this 2023 market is still too strong , market is following 2022 price/inventory pattern except with even lower inventory than 2022 and pushing the price of May 2023 to be equal to May 2022.

I guess SEC action to 'mini crash' the real estate failed miserably LOL It's just so strange that market is too strong that almost nobody willing to sell.

Almost everyone that's predicting a crash in November 2022 is wrong, @James Hamling

479k to 436k for median sales price according to St. Louis fed. This is the chart I was always showing in the infamous several month long post last year here. Since then, 9 percent drop in a quarter is pretty strong, we should see q2 soon. Seems like exactly as I was predicting. We will see 20 percent peak to trough by end of this year which was my base case. Surely anyone who rented 12 months ago as opposed to buying is in a much better situation in 99 percent of cases. Rents have dropped pretty significantly in most markets as well.

HUD is having lagging data. Actually I'm surprised how could May 2023 is reaching May 2022 price level --per Redfin data LOL.

There's so many sources of data that change. Need to pick one source and stick to it. I've been using HUD since last year as my metric since since it filters out the noise. Redfin cherry picking stats.

Even if we assume just a 4 percent drop, factor in being able to get 4-5 percent risk free on treasuries and you are talking about a 8-10 percent loss staying out of the housing market. Housing can’t even keep up with treasuries now. Just the start of the cycle too.

https://fortune.com/2023/06/03...

find me someone 12 months ago that sold a house and decided to rent this year that regrets that decision. This is a first since the GFC where this is accurate.

Car market has plunged as well. When you have 10 trillion dollars in liquidity during Covid it takes a while to flush it out. Also student loan payments are resuming in September, there goes $300-$500 a month for most people under 40.
Going to need Powell to cut rates by end of year or it will get much worse.
0 Reply
Carlos Ptriawan
OP
Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
3y
Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

https://www.redfin.com/news/ho...

Looking at various chart above, my impression is this 2023 market is still too strong , market is following 2022 price/inventory pattern except with even lower inventory than 2022 and pushing the price of May 2023 to be equal to May 2022.

I guess SEC action to 'mini crash' the real estate failed miserably LOL It's just so strange that market is too strong that almost nobody willing to sell.

Almost everyone that's predicting a crash in November 2022 is wrong, @James Hamling

479k to 436k for median sales price according to St. Louis fed. This is the chart I was always showing in the infamous several month long post last year here. Since then, 9 percent drop in a quarter is pretty strong, we should see q2 soon. Seems like exactly as I was predicting. We will see 20 percent peak to trough by end of this year which was my base case. Surely anyone who rented 12 months ago as opposed to buying is in a much better situation in 99 percent of cases. Rents have dropped pretty significantly in most markets as well.

HUD is having lagging data. Actually I'm surprised how could May 2023 is reaching May 2022 price level --per Redfin data LOL.

There's so many sources of data that change. Need to pick one source and stick to it. I've been using HUD since last year as my metric since since it filters out the noise. Redfin cherry picking stats.

Even if we assume just a 4 percent drop, factor in being able to get 4-5 percent risk free on treasuries and you are talking about a 8-10 percent loss staying out of the housing market. Housing can’t even keep up with treasuries now. Just the start of the cycle too.

https://fortune.com/2023/06/03...

find me someone 12 months ago that sold a house and decided to rent this year that regrets that decision. This is a first since the GFC where this is accurate.

Car market has plunged as well. When you have 10 trillion dollars in liquidity during Covid it takes a while to flush it out. Also student loan payments are resuming in September, there goes $300-$500 a month for most people under 40.
Going to need Powell to cut rates by end of year or it will get much worse.

I guess Q3-Q4 2023 would be interesting to watch whether it would be flat line or reduced like Q3-Q4 2022.
In the long run, HUD data would follow the more reliable RFIN data.
Per SEC we would not see rate decrease this year but 2024 is set. I guess we have to write a book why the gov/SEC failed to create housing crisis LOL
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Bill B.
Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes
3y
The problem is you can’t use average selling price. People are much less likely to sell a $600k house with a Locked in 3% mortgage than a $150k condo with one. So now you have a bunch of low end sales moving the “average”.

People who have to move because of financial reasons (though I don’t see much of that in Vegas) ar usually singles in smaller cheaper housing. People selling to move in with new spouses or significant others are usually selling smaller properties. Young people willing to move to new markets for job opportunities or leaving home or school same story. Honestly I can’t believe anyone is selling who doesn’t have to. Unless they are downsizing as they get older or came in to a windfall.
We’re back to anything reasonable being under contract in a week and waiting lists for new homes. Especially single story homes.
7 Reply
John Carbone
Realtor · Gatlinburg · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 957 votes
3y
Quote from @Bill B.:

The problem is you can’t use average selling price. People are much less likely to sell a $600k house with a Locked in 3% mortgage than a $150k condo with one. So now you have a bunch of low end sales moving the “average”.

People who have to move because of financial reasons (though I don’t see much of that in Vegas) ar usually singles in smaller cheaper housing. People selling to move in with new spouses or significant others are usually selling smaller properties. Young people willing to move to new markets for job opportunities or leaving home or school same story. Honestly I can’t believe anyone is selling who doesn’t have to. Unless they are downsizing as they get older or came in to a windfall.
We’re back to anything reasonable being under contract in a week and waiting lists for new homes. Especially single story homes.

Big difference between average and median. I use median because it filters out what you describe.
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Carlos Ptriawan
OP
Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
3y
Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Bill B.:

The problem is you can’t use average selling price. People are much less likely to sell a $600k house with a Locked in 3% mortgage than a $150k condo with one. So now you have a bunch of low end sales moving the “average”.

People who have to move because of financial reasons (though I don’t see much of that in Vegas) ar usually singles in smaller cheaper housing. People selling to move in with new spouses or significant others are usually selling smaller properties. Young people willing to move to new markets for job opportunities or leaving home or school same story. Honestly I can’t believe anyone is selling who doesn’t have to. Unless they are downsizing as they get older or came in to a windfall.
We’re back to anything reasonable being under contract in a week and waiting lists for new homes. Especially single story homes.

Big difference between average and median. I use median because it filters out what you describe.

True, but what really matter here is the trend.

How could market in 2023 is so strong is sometimes beyond me but I guess, wage increase is actually still running faster than inflation and home appreciation, not to mention that 80% of homeowners are having 75% LTV and above in their house.

If you compare this to commercial like office, we're really in very different path.
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Bill B.
Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes
3y
Except median can make the numbers skew even more…especially as sales and inventory drop if one market segment isn’t listing their homes.
Imagine you have 100 sales. All houses have 1 of 5 prices.
10 for a million, 20 for 600k, 20 for 500k 20 for 450k 20 for 400k and 20 for 200k. The median is 450
Now in higher interest rates you have 5 for a million, 10 for 600k, 15 for 500k, 15 for 450k, 15 for 400k and 40 for 200k. Even if the homes sell for the same price you have an 11% median drop. And it could easily be more skewed than that. Especially if you try to use national numbers. Almost every single expensive house sale or purchase is accompanied with a cheaper home being sold or purchased. Most of the single sales/purchases are young people buying their first home.
You could probably compare prices in the same zip code, if all the homes are almost Identical. But even that doesn’t work in areas with draws like waterfront. It doesn’t work across an entire state and it certainly doesn’t work across the country.
2 Reply
John Carbone
Realtor · Gatlinburg · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 957 votes
3y
Quote from @Bill B.:

Except median can make the numbers skew even more…especially as sales and inventory drop if one market segment isn’t listing their homes.
Imagine you have 100 sales. All houses have 1 of 5 prices.
10 for a million, 20 for 600k, 20 for 500k 20 for 450k 20 for 400k and 20 for 200k. The median is 450
Now in higher interest rates you have 5 for a million, 10 for 600k, 15 for 500k, 15 for 450k, 15 for 400k and 40 for 200k. Even if the homes sell for the same price you have an 11% median drop. And it could easily be more skewed than that. Especially if you try to use national numbers. Almost every single expensive house sale or purchase is accompanied with a cheaper home being sold or purchased. Most of the single sales/purchases are young people buying their first home.
You could probably compare prices in the same zip code, if all the homes are almost Identical. But even that doesn’t work in areas with draws like waterfront. It doesn’t work across an entire state and it certainly doesn’t work across the country.

It’s so cheap to build new construction right now. USA has abundance of land to build. Lumber prices are pre Covid. Homebuilders should do really well and they will be able to lower prices over the next several years until eventually supply will exceed demand and then existing homes will sell for a double digit discount against new construction (as they historically do). So all the people standing pat and not selling, home builders will add the supply for you and lower your home price in the long run.

2 Reply
Henry Lazerow
Real Estate Agent · Chicago, IL · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
3y
Rates should of gone up much faster and to a higher rate to do the damage that was needed to regain housing affordability. In Chicago our 100-400k properties are selling higher then a year ago. We have seen a mild drop and more difficulty to find buyers on the larger price points. Some decent deals popping up on 3 units in the blue line corridor which is the hot to invest gentrifying area. Our market always softens a bit after May and then softens significantly after July though so may be seasonal.
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Carlos Ptriawan
OP
Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Henry Lazerow:

Rates should of gone up much faster and to a higher rate to do the damage that was needed to regain housing affordability. In Chicago our 100-400k properties are selling higher then a year ago. We have seen a mild drop and more difficulty to find buyers on the larger price points. Some decent deals popping up on 3 units in the blue line corridor which is the hot to invest gentrifying area. Our market always softens a bit after May and then softens significantly after July though so may be seasonal.

Dude the Fed Can NOT raise anymore otherwise all these lenders are going to bankrupt before us , the residential owner of 30 year mortgage LOL

They're already tired with SVB and First Republic and the crash of Commercial sectors.

We're in very weird situation now where OO and rental value are still going up againts what the Fed wants, while the Fed has to solve all those regional banking crisis and commercial later on.

It seems a lose lose situation to Fed.

They even failed to destroy the job market.
4 Reply
Bill B.
Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes
3y
I love that you think new houses will be cheaper several years from now. How many times has that happened in the last 100 years? And you expect cheaper prices after interest rates drop? You may be the lone voice of reason predicting lower rates will cause lower prices. Existing homes have sold for double digit discounts to new homes for the last 20 years in vegas, that’s nothing new. I assume that’s true of most if not all markets.
We haven’t even mentioned more expensive labor, more regulations, NIMBYism, tougher building codes, all the premium land already being taken, or the mass migration to cities and away from less desirable places. I guess that could help lower the median price if people are selling their $100k homes in the Midwest people are fleeing.
Ps. I think even the “experts” are guessing, but I’d give you an 80-20 chance of houses being more expensive in 5 years. Are you saying 80-20 they’ll be cheaper? I assume you’re not saying 100% chance they will.
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John Carbone
Realtor · Gatlinburg · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 957 votes
3y
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Henry Lazerow:

Rates should of gone up much faster and to a higher rate to do the damage that was needed to regain housing affordability. In Chicago our 100-400k properties are selling higher then a year ago. We have seen a mild drop and more difficulty to find buyers on the larger price points. Some decent deals popping up on 3 units in the blue line corridor which is the hot to invest gentrifying area. Our market always softens a bit after May and then softens significantly after July though so may be seasonal.

Dude the Fed Can NOT raise anymore otherwise all these lenders are going to bankrupt before us , the residential owner of 30 year mortgage LOL

They're already tired with SVB and First Republic and the crash of Commercial sectors.

We're in very weird situation now where OO and rental value are still going up againts what the Fed wants, while the Fed has to solve all those regional banking crisis and commercial later on.

It seems a lose lose situation to Fed.

They even failed to destroy the job market.
The trillions of dollars infused into the economy during Covid is hard to Phathom. I mean just think back to GFC when a 600 billion financial rescue package was enough to get us out of that mess. 10-20x has been infused over the last few years. If they crush everything we are going to need $10-20 trillion next depression.
1 Reply
John Carbone
Realtor · Gatlinburg · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 957 votes
3y
Quote from @Bill B.:

I love that you think new houses will be cheaper several years from now. How many times has that happened in the last 100 years? And you expect cheaper prices after interest rates drop? You may be the lone voice of reason predicting lower rates will cause lower prices. Existing homes have sold for double digit discounts to new homes for the last 20 years in vegas, that’s nothing new. I assume that’s true of most if not all markets.
We haven’t even mentioned more expensive labor, more regulations, NIMBYism, tougher building codes, all the premium land already being taken, or the mass migration to cities and away from less desirable places. I guess that could help lower the median price if people are selling their $100k homes in the Midwest people are fleeing.
Ps. I think even the “experts” are guessing, but I’d give you an 80-20 chance of houses being more expensive in 5 years. Are you saying 80-20 they’ll be cheaper? I assume you’re not saying 100% chance they will.

It has already happened. Median “new” home sales are down 20 percent from peak. Home builders can do this because input costs have collapsed. They have more room to lower price too that can bring down your existing home value more.

And here you go, I searched and found an article from an “expert” to validate my claim https://wolfstreet.com/2023/05...
0 Reply
Bill B.
Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes
3y
And you don’t think that should be done by $’s/sf? Even that would be useless if it wasn’t by zip code, but a national price means nothing. What if it’s just less mansions being built? What if more condos are being built? It just doesn’t mean anything. What if South Dakota is building more new homes and California is building less?

Don’t get me wrong. That chart says new home prices are down 16% I’d love that, I’m in the market for a new home. But they just aren’t. At least not here. They’re up 10-20%. And if it’s not true here it’s worthless, I doubt this is the only market where it’s wrong/useless.

At least it shows AFTER this “Massive drop” new home prices are up 30% over the last 2 years. I’ll take it. If you put down 20% you’ve made a 150% return in 2 years after the “crash”. Hopefully you’ve sold all your properties to avoid the coming crash. We could use the increased inventory.

I’d love a price drop but that’s just a dream here. I want to do some 1031 exchanges. If my property and the more expensive property both drop, I save money. ($400k property to $700k property becomes $340k to $595k at a 15% drop. I save $45k. And in my market cheaper properties hold up better so I’d probably save more.)
2 Reply
John Carbone
Realtor · Gatlinburg · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 957 votes
3y
Quote from @Bill B.:

And you don’t think that should be done by $’s/sf? Even that would be useless if it wasn’t by zip code, but a national price means nothing. What if it’s just less mansions being built? What if more condos are being built? It just doesn’t mean anything. What if South Dakota is building more new homes and California is building less?

Don’t get me wrong. That chart says new home prices are down 16% I’d love that, I’m in the market for a new home. But they just aren’t. At least not here. They’re up 10-20%. And if it’s not true here it’s worthless, I doubt this is the only market where it’s wrong/useless.

At least it shows AFTER this “Massive drop” new home prices are up 30% over the last 2 years. I’ll take it. If you put down 20% you’ve made a 150% return in 2 years after the “crash”. Hopefully you’ve sold all your properties to avoid the coming crash. We could use the increased inventory.

I’d love a price drop but that’s just a dream here. I want to do some 1031 exchanges. If my property and the more expensive property both drop, I save money. ($400k property to $700k property becomes $340k to $595k at a 15% drop. I save $45k. And in my market cheaper properties hold up better so I’d probably save more.)

So because you aren’t seeing it happen in Vegas means it isn’t happening nationally according to government data? Last fall I noted mathematically we were at a peak, and since then it’s been a slow draw down. If rates stay high we will continue to see new home sale prices “nominally” get close to 2020 plus 10-15 percent adjusted for inflation.

there’s dozens of more just like this.
1 Reply
Bill B.
Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes
3y
Not what I said. What i said is it’s useless if it’s not $’s/sf, and it’s useless information unless you are investing nationally. Even then I assume you’d be smart enough to pick the better markets, not just throw darts at a map.

It’s like the useless “household income” statistics that don’t mention “household” sizes change. Are you publishing these statistics? Why do you care if they’re useless?

Again, tell me you had a bunch of properties and you sold them all last fall. If both of those aren’t true then even you know the numbers we useless. if you did, then all you lost out on were opportunity costs and selling and acquisition costs.

I truly don’t care. Make your next response anything, even just WINNER! This my last attempt. I’ve already put too much effort in to explaining why they’re useless, you don’t want to listen. You ignore questions about if you think prices will be lower in 5 years. You ignore Henry’s post saying $100-$400k properties are priced higher than last year and the only slow down is in high end properties. I wonder if that would lower e median price? It certainly doesn’t show lower prices for 90% of the market. Your brick wall defense is spectacular. I just hope you’re getting paid to promote the useless stats, at lest then I’d understand your conviction.

1 Reply
John Carbone
Realtor · Gatlinburg · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 957 votes
3y
Quote from @Bill B.:

Not what I said. What i said is it’s useless if it’s not $’s/sf, and it’s useless information unless you are investing nationally. Even then I assume you’d be smart enough to pick the better markets, not just throw darts at a map.
It’s like the useless “household income” statistics that don’t mention “household” sizes change. Are you publishing these statistics? Why do you care if they’re useless?
Again, tell me you had a bunch of properties and you sold them all last fall. If both of those aren’t true then even you know the numbers we useless. if you did, then all you lost out on were opportunity costs and selling and acquisition costs.
I truly don’t care. Make your next response anything, even just WINNER! This my last attempt. I’ve already put too much effort in to explaining why they’re useless, you don’t want to listen. You ignore questions about if you think prices will be lower in 5 years. Your brick wall defense is spectacular. I just hope you’re getting paid to promote the useless stats, at lest then I’d understand your conviction.

Did you load up on overpriced homes last fall? I can’t even give you an answer for 5 years from now because even if you are looking at official government stats you will look for a cherry pick loophole to claim you are right (like well in zip code xxxxx that nobody cares about - went up) I’m citing government data, and new construction home builders which coincides with the government data showing prices are DOWN. Homebuilders will continue to lower asking prices if they need to, they are in the business to sell homes. Now that Covid is over the inputs into building new are way down now, so they are primed to make massive profits even now at lower prices. They don’t care about existing construction that nobody wants to sell due to being locked in to low rates. They build they sell. No emotion. Buying real estate last fall was a bad investment as I said back then when we were at peak. People like you and James Hamlin were pounding the table to not have a missed opportunity cost. Didn’t play out like that. 5 percent tbills and falling prices, that’s a double win for prospective buyer.

Here you go, I found an article on your market. seems like it was a great idea to buy there last year.
Geez must have been 100 to 1 odds of this happening since prices only go down every 100 years. And even when it happens people still don’t see it.

https://www.ktnv.com/news/las-...

0 Reply
V.G JasonPro Member
Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
3y
Just a sheer gut feeling, but yeah think this is going to come down quite strong. Obviously each region is different, but think this market gets smacked late q3 until EOY.
1 Reply
Mason Liu
Financial Advisor · Boynton Beach, FL · Member since 2019 · 127 posts · 80 votes
3y
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

https://www.redfin.com/news/ho...

Looking at various chart above, my impression is this 2023 market is still too strong , market is following 2022 price/inventory pattern except with even lower inventory than 2022 and pushing the price of May 2023 to be equal to May 2022.

I guess SEC action to 'mini crash' the real estate failed miserably LOL It's just so strange that market is too strong that almost nobody willing to sell.

Almost everyone that's predicting a crash in November 2022 is wrong, @James Hamling

This isn't super useful pertaining to the conversation, but I just wanted to point out that the SEC isn't involved in Fed decision at all. The SEC is an independent federal agency.
2 Reply
Mike Dymski
Investor · Greenville, SC · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes
3y
People seem to be underestimating the impact of higher interest rates for an extended period of time...and the Fed's resolve to squash inflation by hammering the economy. The debt markets are tight, debt is very expensive, loans are repricing at higher rates over time, and the entire market is having to deleverage to meet much higher debt service requirements from higher rates. Someone has to pay for that deleveraging and that sucks liquidity out of the market. And because of it, stuff is starting to break...nobody knows the shadow banks and companies that are next...that takes time to surface. That's a far cry from a stable economy and the downstream impacts on the housing market.
6 Reply
James Hamling
Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

A wonderful feature of this digital age we live in today is that a person can find absolutely no shortage of "supporting information" for very literally any position, thought, opinion one has no matter how ridiculous, ludicrous or just flat out incorrect that position, thought, idea is.
For example, look things up on flat-earth.

For 3 years now, 3-flippin-years, I have been on this platform combating the disinformation of various degrees shouting from as loudly as they can that "THE END IS NIGH" declaring for ___(insert the reasoning)___ real estate is going to '08' style collapse.
And here we are yet again with this debate.

Ever hear the term "the silence is deafening"? Notice how very applicable that is to every one of these doom-preachers on there list of false-predications these last 3 years?

I have a hard time crediting any validity to a persons projections, calling for imminent calamity, who was calling for such previously, that clearly NEVER HAPPENED, is here yet again saying the same, with 0 mention of being so completely wrong previously.

Any use of averaging out housing data to come up with a singular # to represent all housing, is going to be wrong, it will be a false read because it is garbage data. GIGO (Garbage In - Garbage Out).

The one universal factor for the national market is volatility. How can one lump million+ luxury housing into same bucket as $100k+ entry level housing, and all items in between, and expect to get any accurate read of any kind?
Real Estate has a wide variety of it's TYPE of asset class and price points, and just like the market for Lamborghini super-cars can be experiencing 1 thing and economy Nissan Altima a whole other, so is the same for different real estate classes.

Market compression was seen a mile-away, I called this out many MANY times, and here we are living it today. The lower rung of "affordable homes" have demand far outstripping supply and thus inflating price, middle area of affordability pacing about flat, and the higher rung experiencing decline = market compression.

Just to the point of things, skipping all the "noise" of the argument here is the take-away:
Those who don't buy now WILL regret it.
That is the reality of the situation.
Persons WILL look back, just as they are looking back now to a few years ago and lamenting "why didn't I get in then?".
The cost of entry has kept rising, and it WILL keep rising.
Rates come crashing down guess what, PRICE will shoot up, duh!. Todays price REFLECTS TODAYS RATES. It's just that simple.

There is no scenario where we get an '08' style housing collapse without the entire U.S. economic system completely burning to the ground. And in that event, no, you WON'T be buying up anything because there will be no financing to do such, you'll be in the streets fighting your neighbor for a loaf of bread and food for the day. Your dollars will be worthless as the USD goes to 0. Because that what it takes to burn Real Estate to an '08' style collapse, the ENTIRE system burns.

And in that event guess what I will do, I will accept rent in chickens and cows.... Or Amero, DGC or whatever the prevailing currency is.
Food, Water, Shelter, these are the fundamental NEEDS of human life, correct? So in great crisis what do you want, a bunch of "pocket art" of mini-paintings of dead presidents, or something people NEED? It's just not complicated.

We have a giant % of home owners in exceptionally low rate locked mortgages. As I have said for a loooong time NO they won't sell there secured position to move into a volatile one, and without that how do you get an '08' level drop? We have net SHORTAGE, how do you get from here to net EXCESS? Crickets..... the doom=preachers never answer this simple fundamental point.
There is only 1 way, burn the entire economy to the ground. In that fire only the Hiltons and Heinz's of the world will be buying things up.

What's coming?
More volatility in a net shortage environment with spy-high inflated costs pressing volume collapse in a protracted manner, better known as STAGFLATION.

0 Reply
John Carbone
Realtor · Gatlinburg · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 957 votes
3y
Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

A wonderful feature of this digital age we live in today is that a person can find absolutely no shortage of "supporting information" for very literally any position, thought, opinion one has no matter how ridiculous, ludicrous or just flat out incorrect that position, thought, idea is.
For example, look things up on flat-earth.

For 3 years now, 3-flippin-years, I have been on this platform combating the disinformation of various degrees shouting from as loudly as they can that "THE END IS NIGH" declaring for ___(insert the reasoning)___ real estate is going to '08' style collapse.
And here we are yet again with this debate.

Ever hear the term "the silence is deafening"? Notice how very applicable that is to every one of these doom-preachers on there list of false-predications these last 3 years?

I have a hard time crediting any validity to a persons projections, calling for imminent calamity, who was calling for such previously, that clearly NEVER HAPPENED, is here yet again saying the same, with 0 mention of being so completely wrong previously.

Any use of averaging out housing data to come up with a singular # to represent all housing, is going to be wrong, it will be a false read because it is garbage data. GIGO (Garbage In - Garbage Out).

The one universal factor for the national market is volatility. How can one lump million+ luxury housing into same bucket as $100k+ entry level housing, and all items in between, and expect to get any accurate read of any kind?
Real Estate has a wide variety of it's TYPE of asset class and price points, and just like the market for Lamborghini super-cars can be experiencing 1 thing and economy Nissan Altima a whole other, so is the same for different real estate classes.

Market compression was seen a mile-away, I called this out many MANY times, and here we are living it today. The lower rung of "affordable homes" have demand far outstripping supply and thus inflating price, middle area of affordability pacing about flat, and the higher rung experiencing decline = market compression.

Just to the point of things, skipping all the "noise" of the argument here is the take-away:
Those who don't buy now WILL regret it.
That is the reality of the situation.
Persons WILL look back, just as they are looking back now to a few years ago and lamenting "why didn't I get in then?".
The cost of entry has kept rising, and it WILL keep rising.
Rates come crashing down guess what, PRICE will shoot up, duh!. Todays price REFLECTS TODAYS RATES. It's just that simple.

There is no scenario where we get an '08' style housing collapse without the entire U.S. economic system completely burning to the ground. And in that event, no, you WON'T be buying up anything because there will be no financing to do such, you'll be in the streets fighting your neighbor for a loaf of bread and food for the day. Your dollars will be worthless as the USD goes to 0. Because that what it takes to burn Real Estate to an '08' style collapse, the ENTIRE system burns.

And in that event guess what I will do, I will accept rent in chickens and cows.... Or Amero, DGC or whatever the prevailing currency is.
Food, Water, Shelter, these are the fundamental NEEDS of human life, correct? So in great crisis what do you want, a bunch of "pocket art" of mini-paintings of dead presidents, or something people NEED? It's just not complicated.

We have a giant % of home owners in exceptionally low rate locked mortgages. As I have said for a loooong time NO they won't sell there secured position to move into a volatile one, and without that how do you get an '08' level drop? We have net SHORTAGE, how do you get from here to net EXCESS? Crickets..... the doom=preachers never answer this simple fundamental point.
There is only 1 way, burn the entire economy to the ground. In that fire only the Hiltons and Heinz's of the world will be buying things up.

What's coming?
More volatility in a net shortage environment with spy-high inflated costs pressing volume collapse in a protracted manner, better known as STAGFLATION.

I didn’t realize citing govt data (the same I cited last year) was conspiracy theory. Or showing news article headlines from various regions showing both that new home builders are dropping price to sell homes, and that rental prices are declining. These aren’t articles from “the onion” as I said before there is unlimited land to build in the USA and with input costs so low it’s build build build time and sell at what the market will pay. Nobody under 40 wants the overpriced stuff built several decades ago. Housing is a good purchase for someone to live in, but as I said last year doesn’t make sense to buy for long term rentals, that gravy train is OVER (unless you are your own developer). If you have properties bought 5 plus years ago, sure you will do well renting those out.

It’s comical that you think real estate prices dropping back to anywhere close to levels 3 years ago will result in needing to be paid in chickens and cows with social unrest. You are really a conspiracy theorist. If you actually read what you write and you have an IQ that isn’t below average, you would clearly see it.
2 Reply
Bud Gaffney
Rental Property Investor · Boston, MA · Member since 2019 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
3y
100%!
0 Reply
James Hamling
Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
3y
Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

A wonderful feature of this digital age we live in today is that a person can find absolutely no shortage of "supporting information" for very literally any position, thought, opinion one has no matter how ridiculous, ludicrous or just flat out incorrect that position, thought, idea is.
For example, look things up on flat-earth.

For 3 years now, 3-flippin-years, I have been on this platform combating the disinformation of various degrees shouting from as loudly as they can that "THE END IS NIGH" declaring for ___(insert the reasoning)___ real estate is going to '08' style collapse.
And here we are yet again with this debate.

Ever hear the term "the silence is deafening"? Notice how very applicable that is to every one of these doom-preachers on there list of false-predications these last 3 years?

I have a hard time crediting any validity to a persons projections, calling for imminent calamity, who was calling for such previously, that clearly NEVER HAPPENED, is here yet again saying the same, with 0 mention of being so completely wrong previously.

Any use of averaging out housing data to come up with a singular # to represent all housing, is going to be wrong, it will be a false read because it is garbage data. GIGO (Garbage In - Garbage Out).

The one universal factor for the national market is volatility. How can one lump million+ luxury housing into same bucket as $100k+ entry level housing, and all items in between, and expect to get any accurate read of any kind?
Real Estate has a wide variety of it's TYPE of asset class and price points, and just like the market for Lamborghini super-cars can be experiencing 1 thing and economy Nissan Altima a whole other, so is the same for different real estate classes.

Market compression was seen a mile-away, I called this out many MANY times, and here we are living it today. The lower rung of "affordable homes" have demand far outstripping supply and thus inflating price, middle area of affordability pacing about flat, and the higher rung experiencing decline = market compression.

Just to the point of things, skipping all the "noise" of the argument here is the take-away:
Those who don't buy now WILL regret it.
That is the reality of the situation.
Persons WILL look back, just as they are looking back now to a few years ago and lamenting "why didn't I get in then?".
The cost of entry has kept rising, and it WILL keep rising.
Rates come crashing down guess what, PRICE will shoot up, duh!. Todays price REFLECTS TODAYS RATES. It's just that simple.

There is no scenario where we get an '08' style housing collapse without the entire U.S. economic system completely burning to the ground. And in that event, no, you WON'T be buying up anything because there will be no financing to do such, you'll be in the streets fighting your neighbor for a loaf of bread and food for the day. Your dollars will be worthless as the USD goes to 0. Because that what it takes to burn Real Estate to an '08' style collapse, the ENTIRE system burns.

And in that event guess what I will do, I will accept rent in chickens and cows.... Or Amero, DGC or whatever the prevailing currency is.
Food, Water, Shelter, these are the fundamental NEEDS of human life, correct? So in great crisis what do you want, a bunch of "pocket art" of mini-paintings of dead presidents, or something people NEED? It's just not complicated.

We have a giant % of home owners in exceptionally low rate locked mortgages. As I have said for a loooong time NO they won't sell there secured position to move into a volatile one, and without that how do you get an '08' level drop? We have net SHORTAGE, how do you get from here to net EXCESS? Crickets..... the doom=preachers never answer this simple fundamental point.
There is only 1 way, burn the entire economy to the ground. In that fire only the Hiltons and Heinz's of the world will be buying things up.

What's coming?
More volatility in a net shortage environment with spy-high inflated costs pressing volume collapse in a protracted manner, better known as STAGFLATION.

I didn’t realize citing govt data (the same I cited last year) was conspiracy theory. Or showing news article headlines from various regions showing both that new home builders are dropping price to sell homes, and that rental prices are declining. These aren’t articles from “the onion” as I said before there is unlimited land to build in the USA and with input costs so low it’s build build build time and sell at what the market will pay. Nobody under 40 wants the overpriced stuff built several decades ago. Housing is a good purchase for someone to live in, but as I said last year doesn’t make sense to buy for long term rentals, that gravy train is OVER. If you have properties bought 5 plus years ago, sure you will do well renting those out.
It’s comical that you think real estate prices dropping back to anywhere close to levels 3 years ago will result in needing to be paid in chickens and cows with social unrest. You are really a conspiracy theorist. If you actually read what you write and you have an IQ that isn’t below average, you would clearly see it.

This is a shining example of why BP need to add DOWN Votes..... You have ignored effectively everything I DID say, and laid out a running rant of things I DIDNT say.... Lol.
I get it, your Trolling.... Well established and understood. Have fun as I ignore you going forward.
0 Reply

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