I saw a video talking about 2022 California to Texas migration. It said 53,000 households had moved. I thought, that sounds kinda small and insignificant. Then they said those households had more than $7billion in income they brought with them, saving over $700 million/yr in state income tax.
That’s a household making $140k/yr. One well paid worker or 2 decently paid workers. That’s the real problem for California. People who can afford to leave will and with the top 1/2 of 1% of the population paying 50% of the taxes it’s a real top heavy load to bear.
And let me tell you, they don’t even talk about their influence on Vegas any more, but we have become California East. The same people talking about the great California exodus insist on tying the same policies here. I always hoped to live long enough to see the California collapse, but I may leave Vegas by then. What’s left? Tennessee?
Boise Realtor here! Thank for sharing this but I think it's funny when you say "time to sell in Boise" From what I am seeing we saw HUGE growth in 2020-2022 (and even before then we were making top 10 best place to live lists for a decade) Our market has held strong around $530-$550k average home price for the last two years even with rates doubling. I am currently seeing multiple offers, lower on market time and high confidence in our market. I personally think it's the best time to buy in Boise because I don't think our prices will ever be lower than they are now. We have HUGE companies in the tech sector investing billions here and Idaho being a red/landlord friendly state is still causing a lot of migration from west coast states.
If rates do go down this year I think we are prime for another explosion.
Let these Californians deal with this winter coming up in Boise. Boise had a meteoric rise, just fundamentally there's no way it sustains it. Tech companies--you mean just micron?
Arizona, Northern Nevada, Triangle area and Tennessee have far more projects in tech. Boise will correct, weather will likely be the fundamental reason why. As it usually is for where people want to live. I am betting on Boise & Montana folks to move to AZ & No Nevada, maybe some more pick up in Austin but there's more blood for Austin first. Likewise with re-migrating to California.
Median income in Boise is high, almost $100k, so it can sufficiently keep a $500k + median house price. I just am not betting on another massive explosion. I'd say more correction, think median home prices come down a bit as median incomes come up. There is nothing about Boise that is telling you it's going to price extrinsically. Staying in the 4-6x median income range is about where it'll go.
I find great humor on the CA argument on "Tech": "CA has always been Tech, and will always be Tech, because it always was Tech"......
It's the argument of Dinosaurs, there so great so they'll always be so great, just because of there innate greatness....
If your 20-something, looking to launch you great tech solution, asking where do I locate, do ya choose where tax's are sky high, or next to free? And saying one "NEEDS" to be in CA to attract talent.... how that apply in todays world where your staffing pool is world wide via our connected-verse? What start-up performs better, that recruiting from a 25mile radius of some building, or that restricted to planet Earth via remote functions?
Or your a great programmer, tech engineer, do you want to wake up to inhale the smog, traverse a gauntlet of hobos and feces to buy the morning coffee? Or wake up to the Smokies, the Montana Big Sky, Appalachians, Gulf Cost, Indian Ocean etc etc and live in leisurely peace while logging in to the office?
The meteor already hit, just taking time for some to realize there own extinction.
I wouldn't be surprised to see headline in 10yrs naming Tennessee the new "Tech Capital". It's a NY/CA exodus, only item left is awareness and acknowledgement of such fact. So CA has a coastline, maybe of CA's got out of CA a bit more they'd realize a whole lot of other places also have a coastline too.
hahaha i live next to google office but i never bragging to promote this market as i can say this and that fabulous tech market haha lol
if boise going to have lot more tech company i may run away from them because that would be the first indication that there would be affordability issue.
i am also okay if my market is being critized a lot hahaha, it's not my market literally WTH LOL
but seriously this CA market is on pivot right now, we're on edge, most tech company can't sustain living and paying CA salary that's why under the surface we started offshoring all the jobs to india, austin or ohio LOL LOL LOL
under the surface there're huge crack in CA and USA economy mannnn
if we followed BP advice every single one of us would invest in, and only in, Columbus =)
Them Columbus Agents are hungry bro.
If all agents are like Columbus agent our homes prices are skyrocketing everywhere lol
You just love to see it
Boise Realtor here! Thank for sharing this but I think it's funny when you say "time to sell in Boise" From what I am seeing we saw HUGE growth in 2020-2022 (and even before then we were making top 10 best place to live lists for a decade) Our market has held strong around $530-$550k average home price for the last two years even with rates doubling. I am currently seeing multiple offers, lower on market time and high confidence in our market. I personally think it's the best time to buy in Boise because I don't think our prices will ever be lower than they are now. We have HUGE companies in the tech sector investing billions here and Idaho being a red/landlord friendly state is still causing a lot of migration from west coast states.
If rates do go down this year I think we are prime for another explosion.
Let these Californians deal with this winter coming up in Boise. Boise had a meteoric rise, just fundamentally there's no way it sustains it. Tech companies--you mean just micron?
Arizona, Northern Nevada, Triangle area and Tennessee have far more projects in tech. Boise will correct, weather will likely be the fundamental reason why. As it usually is for where people want to live. I am betting on Boise & Montana folks to move to AZ & No Nevada, maybe some more pick up in Austin but there's more blood for Austin first. Likewise with re-migrating to California.
Median income in Boise is high, almost $100k, so it can sufficiently keep a $500k + median house price. I just am not betting on another massive explosion. I'd say more correction, think median home prices come down a bit as median incomes come up. There is nothing about Boise that is telling you it's going to price extrinsically. Staying in the 4-6x median income range is about where it'll go.
I find great humor on the CA argument on "Tech": "CA has always been Tech, and will always be Tech, because it always was Tech"......
It's the argument of Dinosaurs, there so great so they'll always be so great, just because of there innate greatness....
If your 20-something, looking to launch you great tech solution, asking where do I locate, do ya choose where tax's are sky high, or next to free? And saying one "NEEDS" to be in CA to attract talent.... how that apply in todays world where your staffing pool is world wide via our connected-verse? What start-up performs better, that recruiting from a 25mile radius of some building, or that restricted to planet Earth via remote functions?
Or your a great programmer, tech engineer, do you want to wake up to inhale the smog, traverse a gauntlet of hobos and feces to buy the morning coffee? Or wake up to the Smokies, the Montana Big Sky, Appalachians, Gulf Cost, Indian Ocean etc etc and live in leisurely peace while logging in to the office?
The meteor already hit, just taking time for some to realize there own extinction.
I wouldn't be surprised to see headline in 10yrs naming Tennessee the new "Tech Capital". It's a NY/CA exodus, only item left is awareness and acknowledgement of such fact. So CA has a coastline, maybe of CA's got out of CA a bit more they'd realize a whole lot of other places also have a coastline too.
hahaha i live next to google office but i never bragging to promote this market as i can say this and that fabulous tech market haha lol
if boise going to have lot more tech company i may run away from them because that would be the first indication that there would be affordability issue.
i am also okay if my market is being critized a lot hahaha, it's not my market literally WTH LOL
but seriously this CA market is on pivot right now, we're on edge, most tech company can't sustain living and paying CA salary that's why under the surface we started offshoring all the jobs to india, austin or ohio LOL LOL LOL
under the surface there're huge crack in CA and USA economy mannnn
Things are changing Jay, we have total of 1.2 Mil CA workers losing job. Compare to Montana or South Dakota that's losing 7,000 jobs only.
What happened in CA right now would have larger impact nationwide even ten years from now.
I've seen the impact of 2001 dotcom bust, now Powell had diminished CA job market lol.
We would see how many migration out of CA this year. Maybe Boise Idaho home price would rise after some of us move there.
Here's the database:
https://layoffdata.com/data/
Boise Realtor here! Thank for sharing this but I think it's funny when you say "time to sell in Boise" From what I am seeing we saw HUGE growth in 2020-2022 (and even before then we were making top 10 best place to live lists for a decade) Our market has held strong around $530-$550k average home price for the last two years even with rates doubling. I am currently seeing multiple offers, lower on market time and high confidence in our market. I personally think it's the best time to buy in Boise because I don't think our prices will ever be lower than they are now. We have HUGE companies in the tech sector investing billions here and Idaho being a red/landlord friendly state is still causing a lot of migration from west coast states.
If rates do go down this year I think we are prime for another explosion.
Let these Californians deal with this winter coming up in Boise. Boise had a meteoric rise, just fundamentally there's no way it sustains it. Tech companies--you mean just micron?
Arizona, Northern Nevada, Triangle area and Tennessee have far more projects in tech. Boise will correct, weather will likely be the fundamental reason why. As it usually is for where people want to live. I am betting on Boise & Montana folks to move to AZ & No Nevada, maybe some more pick up in Austin but there's more blood for Austin first. Likewise with re-migrating to California.
Median income in Boise is high, almost $100k, so it can sufficiently keep a $500k + median house price. I just am not betting on another massive explosion. I'd say more correction, think median home prices come down a bit as median incomes come up. There is nothing about Boise that is telling you it's going to price extrinsically. Staying in the 4-6x median income range is about where it'll go.
I find great humor on the CA argument on "Tech": "CA has always been Tech, and will always be Tech, because it always was Tech"......
It's the argument of Dinosaurs, there so great so they'll always be so great, just because of there innate greatness....
If your 20-something, looking to launch you great tech solution, asking where do I locate, do ya choose where tax's are sky high, or next to free? And saying one "NEEDS" to be in CA to attract talent.... how that apply in todays world where your staffing pool is world wide via our connected-verse? What start-up performs better, that recruiting from a 25mile radius of some building, or that restricted to planet Earth via remote functions?
Or your a great programmer, tech engineer, do you want to wake up to inhale the smog, traverse a gauntlet of hobos and feces to buy the morning coffee? Or wake up to the Smokies, the Montana Big Sky, Appalachians, Gulf Cost, Indian Ocean etc etc and live in leisurely peace while logging in to the office?
The meteor already hit, just taking time for some to realize there own extinction.
I wouldn't be surprised to see headline in 10yrs naming Tennessee the new "Tech Capital". It's a NY/CA exodus, only item left is awareness and acknowledgement of such fact. So CA has a coastline, maybe of CA's got out of CA a bit more they'd realize a whole lot of other places also have a coastline too.
hahaha i live next to google office but i never bragging to promote this market as i can say this and that fabulous tech market haha lol
if boise going to have lot more tech company i may run away from them because that would be the first indication that there would be affordability issue.
i am also okay if my market is being critized a lot hahaha, it's not my market literally WTH LOL
but seriously this CA market is on pivot right now, we're on edge, most tech company can't sustain living and paying CA salary that's why under the surface we started offshoring all the jobs to india, austin or ohio LOL LOL LOL
under the surface there're huge crack in CA and USA economy mannnn
Things are changing Jay, we have total of 1.2 Mil CA workers losing job. Compare to Montana or South Dakota that's losing 7,000 jobs only.
What happened in CA right now would have larger impact nationwide even ten years from now.
I've seen the impact of 2001 dotcom bust, now Powell had diminished CA job market lol.
We would see how many migration out of CA this year. Maybe Boise Idaho home price would rise after some of us move there.
Here's the database:
https://layoffdata.com/data/
Boise Realtor here! Thank for sharing this but I think it's funny when you say "time to sell in Boise" From what I am seeing we saw HUGE growth in 2020-2022 (and even before then we were making top 10 best place to live lists for a decade) Our market has held strong around $530-$550k average home price for the last two years even with rates doubling. I am currently seeing multiple offers, lower on market time and high confidence in our market. I personally think it's the best time to buy in Boise because I don't think our prices will ever be lower than they are now. We have HUGE companies in the tech sector investing billions here and Idaho being a red/landlord friendly state is still causing a lot of migration from west coast states.
If rates do go down this year I think we are prime for another explosion.
Let these Californians deal with this winter coming up in Boise. Boise had a meteoric rise, just fundamentally there's no way it sustains it. Tech companies--you mean just micron?
Arizona, Northern Nevada, Triangle area and Tennessee have far more projects in tech. Boise will correct, weather will likely be the fundamental reason why. As it usually is for where people want to live. I am betting on Boise & Montana folks to move to AZ & No Nevada, maybe some more pick up in Austin but there's more blood for Austin first. Likewise with re-migrating to California.
Median income in Boise is high, almost $100k, so it can sufficiently keep a $500k + median house price. I just am not betting on another massive explosion. I'd say more correction, think median home prices come down a bit as median incomes come up. There is nothing about Boise that is telling you it's going to price extrinsically. Staying in the 4-6x median income range is about where it'll go.
I find great humor on the CA argument on "Tech": "CA has always been Tech, and will always be Tech, because it always was Tech"......
It's the argument of Dinosaurs, there so great so they'll always be so great, just because of there innate greatness....
If your 20-something, looking to launch you great tech solution, asking where do I locate, do ya choose where tax's are sky high, or next to free? And saying one "NEEDS" to be in CA to attract talent.... how that apply in todays world where your staffing pool is world wide via our connected-verse? What start-up performs better, that recruiting from a 25mile radius of some building, or that restricted to planet Earth via remote functions?
Or your a great programmer, tech engineer, do you want to wake up to inhale the smog, traverse a gauntlet of hobos and feces to buy the morning coffee? Or wake up to the Smokies, the Montana Big Sky, Appalachians, Gulf Cost, Indian Ocean etc etc and live in leisurely peace while logging in to the office?
The meteor already hit, just taking time for some to realize there own extinction.
I wouldn't be surprised to see headline in 10yrs naming Tennessee the new "Tech Capital". It's a NY/CA exodus, only item left is awareness and acknowledgement of such fact. So CA has a coastline, maybe of CA's got out of CA a bit more they'd realize a whole lot of other places also have a coastline too.
hahaha i live next to google office but i never bragging to promote this market as i can say this and that fabulous tech market haha lol
if boise going to have lot more tech company i may run away from them because that would be the first indication that there would be affordability issue.
i am also okay if my market is being critized a lot hahaha, it's not my market literally WTH LOL
but seriously this CA market is on pivot right now, we're on edge, most tech company can't sustain living and paying CA salary that's why under the surface we started offshoring all the jobs to india, austin or ohio LOL LOL LOL
under the surface there're huge crack in CA and USA economy mannnn
Things are changing Jay, we have total of 1.2 Mil CA workers losing job. Compare to Montana or South Dakota that's losing 7,000 jobs only.
What happened in CA right now would have larger impact nationwide even ten years from now.
I've seen the impact of 2001 dotcom bust, now Powell had diminished CA job market lol.
We would see how many migration out of CA this year. Maybe Boise Idaho home price would rise after some of us move there.
Here's the database:
https://layoffdata.com/data/
ya but under the radar we have cold war now between the CA corporation vs the CA (socialist) goverment.
while the socialist goverment increase min. wage, the corp started laying off people even in blue collar industry, so this layoffs has been widespread so far.
take a look at it here https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2024/01/08/wxay-j08.html
in CA there're 3M minimum-wage worker under poverty line ....
also Mexico is having the nicest weather I should say LOL maybe we have to cross border to get good job+weather lol
Boise Realtor here! Thank for sharing this but I think it's funny when you say "time to sell in Boise" From what I am seeing we saw HUGE growth in 2020-2022 (and even before then we were making top 10 best place to live lists for a decade) Our market has held strong around $530-$550k average home price for the last two years even with rates doubling. I am currently seeing multiple offers, lower on market time and high confidence in our market. I personally think it's the best time to buy in Boise because I don't think our prices will ever be lower than they are now. We have HUGE companies in the tech sector investing billions here and Idaho being a red/landlord friendly state is still causing a lot of migration from west coast states.
If rates do go down this year I think we are prime for another explosion.
Let these Californians deal with this winter coming up in Boise. Boise had a meteoric rise, just fundamentally there's no way it sustains it. Tech companies--you mean just micron?
Arizona, Northern Nevada, Triangle area and Tennessee have far more projects in tech. Boise will correct, weather will likely be the fundamental reason why. As it usually is for where people want to live. I am betting on Boise & Montana folks to move to AZ & No Nevada, maybe some more pick up in Austin but there's more blood for Austin first. Likewise with re-migrating to California.
Median income in Boise is high, almost $100k, so it can sufficiently keep a $500k + median house price. I just am not betting on another massive explosion. I'd say more correction, think median home prices come down a bit as median incomes come up. There is nothing about Boise that is telling you it's going to price extrinsically. Staying in the 4-6x median income range is about where it'll go.
I find great humor on the CA argument on "Tech": "CA has always been Tech, and will always be Tech, because it always was Tech"......
It's the argument of Dinosaurs, there so great so they'll always be so great, just because of there innate greatness....
If your 20-something, looking to launch you great tech solution, asking where do I locate, do ya choose where tax's are sky high, or next to free? And saying one "NEEDS" to be in CA to attract talent.... how that apply in todays world where your staffing pool is world wide via our connected-verse? What start-up performs better, that recruiting from a 25mile radius of some building, or that restricted to planet Earth via remote functions?
Or your a great programmer, tech engineer, do you want to wake up to inhale the smog, traverse a gauntlet of hobos and feces to buy the morning coffee? Or wake up to the Smokies, the Montana Big Sky, Appalachians, Gulf Cost, Indian Ocean etc etc and live in leisurely peace while logging in to the office?
The meteor already hit, just taking time for some to realize there own extinction.
I wouldn't be surprised to see headline in 10yrs naming Tennessee the new "Tech Capital". It's a NY/CA exodus, only item left is awareness and acknowledgement of such fact. So CA has a coastline, maybe of CA's got out of CA a bit more they'd realize a whole lot of other places also have a coastline too.
hahaha i live next to google office but i never bragging to promote this market as i can say this and that fabulous tech market haha lol
if boise going to have lot more tech company i may run away from them because that would be the first indication that there would be affordability issue.
i am also okay if my market is being critized a lot hahaha, it's not my market literally WTH LOL
but seriously this CA market is on pivot right now, we're on edge, most tech company can't sustain living and paying CA salary that's why under the surface we started offshoring all the jobs to india, austin or ohio LOL LOL LOL
under the surface there're huge crack in CA and USA economy mannnn
This. And not to get political but when Gavin Newsom brags about the area, it's in spite of his policies. So I find it strange he uses it as a reason he's doing great. Cali will be great, regardless.
And to detract from that, it's my main reason I think MT and ID fall. End of the day, people don't want their average winter with massive blizzard warnings. There is some deep cold coming to the Mid-westish later this week. Californians are not going to like that. I think the next more booming tech area will actually be Raleigh and Northern Nevada, but I see Tennessee and AZ as options too.
We bought a place in MB(second home) cause let's be frank-- what's a better area than here?
Do you have the URL for this chart?
Wow a LOT of PNW cities!
I'm shocked to see Tumwater, Washington and Bellingham, Washington on here. Only because I used to live in both of those towns and they are small towns- surprised to see them on any type of list.
Sharing the Freddie Mac Worst Cities in terms of declining values. Boom towns zoom towns going down.
Where you going to go?
If you are investor, still collecting rents.
If you are homeowner with a job, where do you want to transfer? Can you transfer.
Denver will remain steady. You see that in YoY.

Here is a graph showing the Boulder, CO home price trend over the last 45 years. You can see the dip that got us on this list (when interest rates doubled in a few months), and how that anomalous event fits into the bigger picture. When something goes up 28.5% then down 6.8%, that's still up 21.7% in my book. Prices go up between February and June here every year, then down in the fall, and you can cherry-pick the data to show a short term decline every year actually. But over time it's up, up, up as you can see clearly in the graph above that looks like a ski jump. Declining home prices, my a**, more like life-changing appreciation, with the exception of a very short time period which we've already recovered from.
Boise Realtor here! Thank for sharing this but I think it's funny when you say "time to sell in Boise" From what I am seeing we saw HUGE growth in 2020-2022 (and even before then we were making top 10 best place to live lists for a decade) Our market has held strong around $530-$550k average home price for the last two years even with rates doubling. I am currently seeing multiple offers, lower on market time and high confidence in our market. I personally think it's the best time to buy in Boise because I don't think our prices will ever be lower than they are now. We have HUGE companies in the tech sector investing billions here and Idaho being a red/landlord friendly state is still causing a lot of migration from west coast states.
If rates do go down this year I think we are prime for another explosion.
See James now every realtor would defend their market :-) :-) this is why I no longer post something that our friendly realtor would not like to hear LOL nothing wrong though .... hahaha
Well- we are now having multiple offers on homes at 6-7 and $800,000. I'm just out here trying to help people understand our market is still strong. I'd like to re-visit this post in 6 months.
Boise Realtor here! Thank for sharing this but I think it's funny when you say "time to sell in Boise" From what I am seeing we saw HUGE growth in 2020-2022 (and even before then we were making top 10 best place to live lists for a decade) Our market has held strong around $530-$550k average home price for the last two years even with rates doubling. I am currently seeing multiple offers, lower on market time and high confidence in our market. I personally think it's the best time to buy in Boise because I don't think our prices will ever be lower than they are now. We have HUGE companies in the tech sector investing billions here and Idaho being a red/landlord friendly state is still causing a lot of migration from west coast states.
If rates do go down this year I think we are prime for another explosion.
See James now every realtor would defend their market :-) :-) this is why I no longer post something that our friendly realtor would not like to hear LOL nothing wrong though .... hahaha
Well- we are now having multiple offers on homes at 6-7 and $800,000. I'm just out here trying to help people understand our market is still strong. I'd like to re-visit this post in 6 months.
looking at Boise's ZHI https://www.zillow.com/home-values/3737/boise-id/ it seems avg price would be gratifying between 460k-480k. It's consolidating trend.