Declining Home Prices In These Cities

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Declining Home Prices In These Cities

Caroline Gerardo

Lender · Washington DC · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes

Sharing the Freddie Mac Worst Cities in terms of declining values. Boom towns zoom towns going down.

Probably time to sell in Boise.

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Bill B.

Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes

I saw a video talking about 2022 California to Texas migration. It said 53,000 households had moved. I thought, that sounds kinda small and insignificant. Then they said those households had more than $7billion in income they brought with them, saving over $700 million/yr in state income tax.

That’s a household making $140k/yr. One well paid worker or 2 decently paid workers. That’s the real problem for California. People who can afford to leave will and with the top 1/2 of 1% of the population paying 50% of the taxes it’s a real top heavy load to bear.

And let me tell you, they don’t even talk about their influence on Vegas any more, but we have become California East. The same people talking about the great California exodus insist on tying the same policies here. I always hoped to live long enough to see the California collapse, but I may leave Vegas by then. What’s left? Tennessee?

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David Ramirez
Investor · Tampa, FL · Member since 2019 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
2y
Everyone moving to the Sunshine State
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JD MartinBusiness Member
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Rock Star Extraordinaire · Northeast, TN · Member since 2015 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes
2y
Quote from @Caroline Gerardo:

Sharing the Freddie Mac Worst Cities in terms of declining values. Boom towns zoom towns going down.
Probably time to sell in Boise.

Funny that with the exception of Lake Charles, those are all western cities probably pushed that high with California money.
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Caroline Gerardo
OP
Lender · Washington DC · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
2y
Quote from @David Ramirez:

Everyone moving to the Sunshine State

:)
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Carlos Ptriawan
Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
2y
Quote from @Caroline Gerardo:

Sharing the Freddie Mac Worst Cities in terms of declining values. Boom towns zoom towns going down.
Probably time to sell in Boise.

some of these cities are appreciating because of the remote workers from California, now the same worker has to come back to CA LOL

Austin is in the list more or less because of "following the herd" mentality among the builder though lol
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Vaibhav Jain
Member since 2024 · 1 post · 9 votes
2y
Noone is moving back to Cali. Companies are leaving/re-locating and taking the employees with them. San Francisco lost more than 400K+ population since COVID and it is not coming back.
9 Reply
Bill B.
Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes
2y
I saw a video talking about 2022 California to Texas migration. It said 53,000 households had moved. I thought, that sounds kinda small and insignificant. Then they said those households had more than $7billion in income they brought with them, saving over $700 million/yr in state income tax.
That’s a household making $140k/yr. One well paid worker or 2 decently paid workers. That’s the real problem for California. People who can afford to leave will and with the top 1/2 of 1% of the population paying 50% of the taxes it’s a real top heavy load to bear.
And let me tell you, they don’t even talk about their influence on Vegas any more, but we have become California East. The same people talking about the great California exodus insist on tying the same policies here. I always hoped to live long enough to see the California collapse, but I may leave Vegas by then. What’s left? Tennessee?
10 Reply
Carlos Ptriawan
Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
2y
Quote from @Bill B.:

I saw a video talking about 2022 California to Texas migration. It said 53,000 households had moved. I thought, that sounds kinda small and insignificant. Then they said those households had more than $7billion in income they brought with them, saving over $700 million/yr in state income tax.
That’s a household making $140k/yr. One well paid worker or 2 decently paid workers. That’s the real problem for California. People who can afford to leave will and with the top 1/2 of 1% of the population paying 50% of the taxes it’s a real top heavy load to bear.
And let me tell you, they don’t even talk about their influence on Vegas any more, but we have become California East. The same people talking about the great California exodus insist on tying the same policies here. I always hoped to live long enough to see the California collapse, but I may leave Vegas by then. What’s left? Tennessee?

The migration from CA to TX is shrinking now.

But lets see if there're new rising of migration wave from tech layoffs. Actual layoffs are hitting 300K-500K number. So either they fly to Austin/Vegas/Sacramento or folks move back to India. The drama still needs at least 18 months to catch up twith the trend.
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Carlos Ptriawan
Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
2y
Quote from @Vaibhav Jain:

Noone is moving back to Cali. Companies are leaving/re-locating and taking the employees with them. San Francisco lost more than 400K+ population since COVID and it is not coming back.

during covid lot of employee work remotely from TX/Idaho ,etc and last year they have to come back to bay area to work in the office or get fired.
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Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
2y
Quote from @Caroline Gerardo:

Sharing the Freddie Mac Worst Cities in terms of declining values. Boom towns zoom towns going down.
Probably time to sell in Boise.

does the blue line represent that houses for instance in Longview WA fell 36% from their peak if thats the case then I think this is deeply flawed.. no way houses on average have fallen this amount I can see the 6 to 10% but no way 25 to 50% in the blue line.. that was as bad as 08 and we are not there yet or anywhere close )* maybe I am just not reading this right.
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Carlos Ptriawan
Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
2y
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Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
2y
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

OK I did not see that anywhere but that makes sense these are down basically sales costs from the peaks.. So anyone with max leverage has lost most of their equity if they were to sell today and if its rental props they would also have recapture and since they bought with max leverage there would not be enough to really make sense to 1031.. So for investors time to just ride it out. .For home owners most of them know if you buy a home and have to move in 1 ro 3years your probably going to lose money unless you bought in the trough.. good news is rates were super low so most likley just because values are down you wont see much of a melt down.. people will just hold.
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Carlos Ptriawan
Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
2y
yes there's no reason to sell
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Mike Dymski
Investor · Greenville, SC · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes
2y
The orange is irrelevant. The blue is what matters...+30-50% since 2020. That is life changing for many homeowners and investors (and part of the wealth impact that has kept consumer spending elevated).
9 Reply
V.G JasonPro Member
Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
2y
From 2020, these are still heavily up. I still bet on a migration away from MT, ID. But if you buy in 2020 with the intention to sell in under 7 years, do not buy.
1 Reply
Carlos Ptriawan
Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
2y
what this chart telling us is that appreciation in Salt Lake or Cheyenne WY is more organic than Austin or Boise. Nothing surprising.
0 Reply
James BowersBusiness Member
Real Estate Agent · Cheyenne, Wyoming (WY) · Member since 2018 · 32 posts · 10 votes
2y
As with all data there is more to the story. Average sale prices are down because existing product is still selling but new construction (typically higher priced) isn’t. Values in general are not down that far in a number of these markets if you dig in further.
2 Reply
Alan F.
Flipper/Rehabber · CA · Member since 2023 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
2y
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Caroline Gerardo:

Sharing the Freddie Mac Worst Cities in terms of declining values. Boom towns zoom towns going down.
Probably time to sell in Boise.

some of these cities are appreciating because of the remote workers from California, now the same worker has to come back to CA LOL

Austin is in the list more or less because of "following the herd" mentality among the builder though lol

Alot of those ex-Californians are CalPERS, CalSTRS
1 Reply
Bruce WoodruffPro Member
Contractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
2y
Quote from @Alan F.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Caroline Gerardo:

Sharing the Freddie Mac Worst Cities in terms of declining values. Boom towns zoom towns going down.
Probably time to sell in Boise.

some of these cities are appreciating because of the remote workers from California, now the same worker has to come back to CA LOL

Austin is in the list more or less because of "following the herd" mentality among the builder though lol

Alot of those ex-Californians are CalPERS, CalSTRS

Yes I agree, but explain for others... ie these funds are unfunded to the tune of at least $1.5 T. But they juggle their numbers...some sources I've read put the number at $3-4 T....as they come due it will spell disaster for good ole Cali.....
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Alan F.
Flipper/Rehabber · CA · Member since 2023 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
2y
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Alan F.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Caroline Gerardo:

Sharing the Freddie Mac Worst Cities in terms of declining values. Boom towns zoom towns going down.
Probably time to sell in Boise.

some of these cities are appreciating because of the remote workers from California, now the same worker has to come back to CA LOL

Austin is in the list more or less because of "following the herd" mentality among the builder though lol

Alot of those ex-Californians are CalPERS, CalSTRS

Yes I agree, but explain for others... ie these funds are unfunded to the tune of at least $1.5 T. But they juggle their numbers...some sources I've read put the number at $3-4 T....as they come due it will spell disaster for good ole Cali.....

You explained it perfectly, as you well know the bookkeeping out of Sacramento is "creative".
1 Reply
Ryan KellyBusiness Member
Real Estate Broker · Austin, TX · Member since 2018 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
2y
@Caroline Gerardo Austin and Boise were two of the hottest markets in the country leading into the pandemic and through it, so they needed more correction than other markets. Also, Austin continues to bring more single family and multifamily product to the market than most markets, so we have more supply creating competition amongst sellers and landlords. The fundamentals of Austin haven’t changed with strong population and job growth. We’re already starting to see a rebound in buyer activity and median sales price the past few months now that prices have reduced and interest rates have declined from the October peak.
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Nicholas L.Pro Member
Flipper/Rehabber · Pittsburgh · Member since 2018 · 6k+ posts · 5k+ votes
2y
what @Mike Dymski said. these declines get a disproportionate amount of attention... i can't listen to a podcast without hearing about the decline in Boise, which is the... 94th largest city in the US.
not saying it's not interesting but i don't know what decisions it drives.
2 Reply
Carlos Ptriawan
Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
2y
Quote from @Nicholas L.:

what @Mike Dymski said. these declines get a disproportionate amount of attention... i can't listen to a podcast without hearing about the decline in Boise, which is the... 94th largest city in the US.
not saying it's not interesting but i don't know what decisions it drives.

There are lot of lesson learn.
It tells lot of story that winner 4 years ago could be a loser today. Following the trend in real estate is just temporary phenomenon. Everyone invest in Airbnb during 2021 now everyone get busted. Every Joe from CA move to Austin only to drive price up temporarily. San Francisco was the hottest market in 2010 but the city is now homeless Disneyland. Every MF GP want to buy class C in TX and increase rent but the rentable supply is being added so much they have to reduce rent.
And all the naivest investors are losing money ...
2 Reply
Nicholas L.Pro Member
Flipper/Rehabber · Pittsburgh · Member since 2018 · 6k+ posts · 5k+ votes
2y
@Carlos Ptriawan
totally agree with you, although I think that's a very, very small number of people, right? certainly there are people who left SF to go to Boise, bought at the absolute top of the market, were told they could WFH forever... and then got summoned back to CA. and i guess there is some small number of investors who bought at the absolute top hoping that appreciation 2023-2026 would be the same as 2019-2022.
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John MorganPro Member
Rental Property Investor · Grand Prairie, TX · Member since 2018 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
2y
So in a nutshell, all these cities are still up 30-50% in the last 3 years even after a 10% or so decline from about a year ago. That’s an insane gain even with prices correcting! But I do see a trend of migration from blue western states to red states like Texas and the south. So that’s where I’m investing due to high job growth, housing demand and low inventory. Lowering interest rates will stoke demand this spring time or sooner in business friendly states like Texas.
2 Reply
Alan F.
Flipper/Rehabber · CA · Member since 2023 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
2y
Quote from @John Morgan:

So in a nutshell, all these cities are still up 30-50% in the last 3 years even after a 10% or so decline from about a year ago. That’s an insane gain even with prices correcting! But I do see a trend of migration from blue western states to red states like Texas and the south. So that’s where I’m investing due to high job growth, housing demand and low inventory. Lowering interest rates will stoke demand this spring time or sooner in business friendly states like Texas.

There may be less outmigration but it certainly isn't going to stop =)
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