Real Estate Broker · Austin, TX · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
Its interesting to see how the 30 year mortgage rate and the 10 year yield is tightening. One of the key takeaways is the "This suggests that as capital markets normalize, mortgage rates could decline by another 50 to 75 basis points, relative to the 10-year Treasury yield." That would be awesome!!!
OP you’re in Texas. I would watch crude oil prices to understand the Texas economy. The trend is negative. If it goes another $5 or $10 lower from say the current $60, Texas economy goes in the tank. All the business people will tell you about the diverse economy in Texas. Don't listen to them. Look back at near term history. Look at the history of Frost bank and compare to all other Texas bank history.
@Henry Clark That is an interesting notion. I am not so sure about that Henry. Check out the price of oil Feb 5th, 2016. It was at a very low price of 32.19 barrel. The unemployment in Austin Texas was 3.27% and trending downwards. I don't know what happened to Frost Bank. Its still alive and kicking. Perhaps, one could get some cheap real estate in the oil dependent Permian Basin but in Austin metro the economy was going strong. Even Houston has learned not to be so oil dependent but the unemployment was trending upwards in that time frame so its likely that it was affected by that low price of oil then. Texas is very diverse.