The Great Stay: What It Could Mean for the Memphis Housing Market

Homeowners aren't moving as often as they used to. A recent trend being called “The Great Stay” describes a growing number of homeowners choosing to stay in their current homes rather than sell and move. Higher mortgage rates, elevated home prices and the financial cost of moving have all contributed to this shift. According to a recent Redfin analysis, the typical U.S. homeowner stayed in their home for 12 years in 2025, the longest median tenure since 2022. According to HECMWorld, homeowners are increasingly holding onto their properties, particularly those who secured historically low mortgage rates. For many, trading a low-rate mortgage for a new, higher-rate loan simply doesn't make financial sense. While the trend is national, it is especially interesting to look at what the data says about Memphis. The typical Memphis homeowner stayed in their home for 15.8 years in 2025, well above the national median. What happens to the local housing market when more homeowners decide to stay put?

Fewer Homeowners Moving Means Fewer Homes Changing Hands

When people stay in their homes longer, fewer properties come onto the market. That can have a direct effect on housing inventory and the number of transactions taking place. Instead of selling one home and purchasing another, homeowners remain where they are, effectively removing themselves from the traditional cycle of buying and selling. For buyers, that can mean fewer options. For sellers, it can mean less competition from other homeowners looking to sell. And for the overall market, it can mean fewer transactions and a slower pace of turnover.

Mortgage Rates Are a Major Factor

One of the biggest reasons behind the Great Stay is the gap between existing mortgage rates and today's borrowing costs. Many homeowners who purchased or refinanced when rates were significantly lower are reluctant to give up that payment. Even if they want a larger home, a different neighborhood or simply a change of scenery, the financial difference can make staying put the more attractive option. This creates what has become known as the “lock-in effect.” The longer homeowners remain locked into favorable mortgage rates, the longer some properties may stay off the market.

What Could This Mean for Memphis?

Memphis has its own unique housing market, but it isn't immune to these broader national trends. In fact, the data shows Memphis homeowners are already staying in their properties for a significant amount of time. According to Redfin's analysis of the 41 most populous U.S. metro areas, Memphis had a median homeowner tenure of 15.8 years in 2025. While that was down 0.6 years from 2024, it was still 1.7 years longer than it was in 2015. The median Memphis home-sale price was $288,000, up 6.7% year over year. If Memphis homeowners continue staying in their properties longer, the market could see slower turnover and fewer homes entering the resale market. That doesn't necessarily mean home prices will surge or that inventory will disappear. Instead, it adds another factor to an already complicated housing environment. Local inventory, affordability, mortgage rates, employment and buyer demand will all continue to influence where the Memphis market goes next. The Great Stay is simply another piece of that puzzle.

The Market Could Change If Rates Fall

One of the biggest questions surrounding the Great Stay is what happens if mortgage rates eventually decline. Lower rates could encourage some homeowners who have been waiting to finally sell. That could bring more inventory into the market and give buyers additional options. But lower rates could also bring more buyers back into the market at the same time. If demand increases faster than homeowners are willing to sell, Memphis could once again experience competition for available properties. In other words, the impact of the Great Stay could depend heavily on what happens next with mortgage rates.

A Housing Market Defined by Patience

The Great Stay reflects a broader change in how Americans are approaching real estate. People are taking longer to move. They're thinking more carefully about the financial consequences of selling. And homeowners who once might have moved simply because their needs changed are increasingly asking whether moving is worth giving up their current mortgage. For Memphis, that could mean a housing market with less turnover and a greater reliance on the homes already available.

With Memphis homeowners staying in their homes for a median of 15.8 years, this trend may be particularly important for the local market to watch. Even with a slight decrease from 2024, homeowner tenure in Memphis remains 1.7 years longer than it was a decade ago, showing just how much the traditional cycle of buying and selling has changed.

At Avalon Capital, we see the effects of these market shifts firsthand through our work with real estate professionals and investors across the Memphis market. As a local private lender, staying informed about changes in housing activity, inventory and demand helps us better understand the environment our borrowers are navigating.

The Great Stay isn't necessarily about people leaving the housing market. It's about people staying in it differently. As Memphis continues to navigate changing interest rates, inventory levels and affordability, the decisions homeowners make about when and whether to move will remain an important factor shaping the local real estate market.