Michael, seeing this from down here in Broward County and you nailed it about creative solutions. The conventional market IS stuck - pending sales here are no different than what Rob is seeing in Louisville.
But here's what's interesting on the ground: the properties that CAN'T sell through traditional channels are creating opportunities elsewhere. I've been buying at tax deed auctions locally and the amount of distressed inventory coming through is directly tied to this exact problem - owners who can't sell at the price they want, stop paying taxes, and eventually the county takes it.
Jay's point about the 70s and 18% rates is spot on. Everyone who got used to 3% money is acting like this is unprecedented. It's not. What IS different is that today's stalled sellers have way more equity than they did back then, which means there's room to make deals work if you approach them with the right structure.
The creative toolbox Michael mentioned - seller finance, lease options, subject to - those aren't backup plans anymore. In this rate environment they're becoming the primary deal structure for a lot of investors who can't get traditional financing to pencil.
Matches what I'm seeing locally, maybe a sharper version of it. Louisville's pending sales were down 26.3% YoY in August, even with active inventory up 33% YoY and new listings up 3.5% YoY. So it's not that buyers vanished or sellers dried up — new listings prove people are still willing to sell. It's the conversion from listed to under-contract that's stalling. Days on market climbed to 46, up 21% YoY, too. Reads like both sides are waiting for the other to move on rate or price before signing anything, which tracks with your "stuck in the mud" framing better than an actual demand collapse would.
Yeah, it seems like a battle of wills. Sellers are convinced another wave of motivated buying insanity is right around the corner. Buyers are convinced prices will drop. I'm with the buyers on this one.
I started my RE sales career in 75 and worked through the carter years of 15 to 18% interest rates.. for me I specialized in Land sales and it was all 100% owner financing . On top of that I took listings where I could offer 10% down and I took my commish in monthly payments from my sellers as they got paid.
Not all deals but many and over the course of a few years I had created quite a nice monthly cash flow on trailing commissions.. Its quite a foreign concept for agents to not get paid at closing but your talking getting creative and thats what I had to do to maneuver those very tough years.
Also thats when I started doing Sub to in earnest for our own portfolio did hundreds of them ( again land not houses) did not have the time or patients to work with appraisers banks and inspections.. Land was much easier at the most it would be check well logs and get a perc test.
Also you see so much of the headlines RE is too expensive we have to help first time home buyers and other etc etc.. OK this is what helps them slow the market down and have price compression.. I get the interest rate issue but historically rates are about where they were maybe a point higher than in say 2000s
short memories or un realistic expectations of 3 and 4% mortgage money.
many wont know this but in the old days when I started there was no on line amortization schedules you googled we had a book and it had interest rates started at 5 to 6% there was never a thought that rates could or would be lower I still have mine that are now 50 years old.. And the rates in those books went to 18%
Michael, seeing this from down here in Broward County and you nailed it about creative solutions. The conventional market IS stuck - pending sales here are no different than what Rob is seeing in Louisville.
But here's what's interesting on the ground: the properties that CAN'T sell through traditional channels are creating opportunities elsewhere. I've been buying at tax deed auctions locally and the amount of distressed inventory coming through is directly tied to this exact problem - owners who can't sell at the price they want, stop paying taxes, and eventually the county takes it.
Jay's point about the 70s and 18% rates is spot on. Everyone who got used to 3% money is acting like this is unprecedented. It's not. What IS different is that today's stalled sellers have way more equity than they did back then, which means there's room to make deals work if you approach them with the right structure.
The creative toolbox Michael mentioned - seller finance, lease options, subject to - those aren't backup plans anymore. In this rate environment they're becoming the primary deal structure for a lot of investors who can't get traditional financing to pencil.